Sneaky MLB Trade Deadline 2024 Pickups Primed to Impact AL and NL Playoff Races
Now that we've had time to digest the MLB trade deadline and even observe some players with their new teams, it's time to really start looking forward.
We're not talking instant-reaction trade grades. We did that already here.
No, this is about projecting actual impact on the postseason. There was a ton of movement at the deadline—some of the moves more notable than others.
Here's a look at the sneaky deadline pickups who are primed to impact the AL and NL playoff races.
Martín Pérez to San Diego Padres
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The Pittsburgh Pirates were busy at the deadline, but their biggest move was about what they sent elsewhere.
Pérez, now 33, was an All-Star for the Texas Rangers two seasons ago. He was part of their World Series title team last season, albeit in a diminished role.
It's been tough for Pérez to even come close to replicating that All-Star campaign from 2022 when he was among the top 15 in ERA (2.89).
The Pirates version of Pérez heads to San Diego with a 5.20 ERA, up from his 4.45 ERA last season with Texas. His opponents' batting average shot up from .241 in 2022 to .312 this season. There is no way around Pérez's regression.
Yet adding someone with this much experience is tremendously valuable to a Padres team fighting for a Wild Card spot. The Padres are short on postseason experience in the rotation outside of Joe Musgrove and potentially Yu Darvish if he returns from the restricted list.
Also, few teams have experienced firsthand the impact of passing on starting pitching. You can never have too much of it, and not having enough can be fatal.
It's what happened to the Padres in 2021, when they did not acquire a starter at the deadline and their rotation promptly imploded down the stretch. GM AJ Preller surely remembered that failure.
Carlos Estévez to Philadelphia Phillies
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The rich got a lot richer when it came to the Phillies. They added closer Carlos Estévez from the Los Angeles Angels, a team that was clearly wasting his production.
Estévez has not given up a run since May 28. In fact, he's the best reliever in baseball in that span. The team with the best record and highest run differential in baseball just added a weapon to ensure they can close out games.
Philly's starting pitching is already elite, as evidenced by its second-best ERA going into Thursday's action. The bullpen was one of the Phillies' few weaknesses entering the deadline. They tied for the fifth-most blown saves and their bullpen ERA was middle of the road.
Insert Estévez, who despite pitching for a bad team, has the fourth-most saves in baseball since May 28. He bolsters a group that sorely needs someone like him.
Before the trade, the Phillies already looked like the NL's top team. Now that the bullpen has reinforcements, their chances of winning the NL pennant are even greater.
Michael Kopech to Los Angeles Dodgers
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Trading for Kopech already looks like a solid investment by the Dodgers, even in defeat. He debuted for them Wednesday with a dominant fifth inning, striking out the side in a loss to the San Diego Padres.
The former first-round pick from a decade ago was once thought to be a key piece to the Chicago White Sox rotation. He was certainly a centerpiece in the Chris Sale trade with the Boston Red Sox in 2016.
By 2024, the White Sox moved him to the bullpen. Last season, he either gave up hard contact or simply failed to command the strike zone.
Kopech has been better this year since Chicago decided to move him from the starting rotation to the bullpen. He even put together a rare immaculate inning last month, just the second White Sox to do it and the first in more than 100 years.
He still gets a ton of swings and misses, now more than he has in a few years. His fastball velocity is one of the game's elite.
Eloy Jiménez to Baltimore Orioles
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This is another former Chicago White Sox player who escaped obscurity and landed with a true contender. It's also perhaps the greatest example of enriching the rich.
Consider that Baltimore already leads baseball in home runs and slugging. Then it adds a player in Jiménez who, as long as he's healthy, will slug and hit homers if nothing else. Where he fits in defensively is an open question that nobody is quite sure about yet, however.
The health issue is a major caveat, though. As recently as early July, he talked about missing essentially half of the White Sox season, dealing with a left adductor strain and then a left hamstring strain.
Perhaps that's the reason for the lack of power seen from Jiménez this season. His first five big league seasons saw double-digit home runs, including 31 in his 2019 rookie season. He hasn't hit more than 18 since then and rarely played more than 85 games in a season.
The Orioles, however, mainly just need him to lock in for this final stretch of 2024. He's under club control through the 2026 season, but they can cross that bridge when they get there.
Jiménez is easy to forget about, given the team he played for and his inability to stay on the field. Baltimore just gave him a chance to remind the baseball world who he is.
Justin Turner to Seattle Mariners
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This version of Turner is not to be confused with the one who was an All-Star three years ago, or who played a key role in the Los Angeles Dodgers' World Series title in the 2020 COVID season.
At age 39, he is unquestionably a diminished version. His bat speed is not good. He doesn't hit the ball as hard or barrel it as much as he used to. But he still knows how to give you a quality, veteran at-bat.
The Mariners, who are fighting for the AL West title with the Houston Astros, could use more of this type of quality.
Seattle has the fifth-worst on-base percentage in baseball. Meanwhile, Turner's walk percentage remains in the top 81st percentile, according to Baseball Savant. His on-base percentage has dipped because he wasn't hitting as well at the end of his tenure with the Toronto Blue Jays.
Yet someone with this much experience, knowledge and ability to keep the line moving because of his good eye should elevate a lagging Mariners offense alongside fellow new addition Randy Arozarena.
Carson Kelly to Texas Rangers
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This one is sneaky because the Rangers already have an All-Star-level catcher in Jonah Heim. So what's the big deal about a backup catcher for the defending World Series champions?
Well, it hasn't exactly been an All-Star level season for Heim, as it was last season when the Rangers won the World Series. Heim has struggled on both sides of the plate.
As of Thursday (-0.6), the Rangers had the fourth-worst catchers' fWAR, one of just five teams with a negative fWAR at the position. In addition to Heim's struggles, the Rangers lack depth at catcher.
Kelly provides that depth both at catcher and for the Rangers' lineup. It allows flexibility with how they use Heim, making him a more viable DH option to limit wear and tear.
Kelly is much improved from last season with the Arizona Diamondbacks, who the Rangers beat in the World Series. He's slashing .242/.325/.390 for a .715 OPS and seven home runs.
It's not like Texas added Pudge Rodríguez but this was certainly a sneaky upgrade to a team with a small margin for error at this point in the season.
Alex Cobb to Cleveland Guardians
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Alex Cobb has been out of sight and out of mind all season for a .500 San Francisco Giants team. That's what makes the Guardians' decision to trade for him a sneaky deadline move primed to impact the AL playoff race.
Cleveland already has the best record in baseball. Given their success, you could argue the Guardians didn't need to do much.
But you insert someone like the 36-year-old Cobb, who's missed all of this season while recovering from hip surgery, into the equation, and the Guardians' ceiling is even higher.
Just a year ago, Cobb pitched well enough to take a no-hit bid into the ninth inning of a game against the Cincinnati Reds before it was broken up with just one out left to complete it.
Cobb was still one of the better ground-ball pitchers in the game last season, ranked in the top 95th percentile. He also showed tremendous command and ranked in the top 87th percentile in walk rate.
Cobb has already noted that the Guardians are leading MLB in defensive runs saved, according to FanGraphs, and that that pairs well with his ground ball rate. For a Cleveland team that has struggled all season with their rotation, adding a proven vet like Cobb will help keep the rotation from being the reason they blow their six-game lead in the AL Central. The Cleveland rotation ranks 27th in quality starts with 29.
Don't be surprised to see Cobb pitching high-leverage innings for Cleveland in the postseason.
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