Updated Post-Trade Deadline 2024 MLB Playoff Predictions
Now that the dust has fully settled on MLB's 2024 trade deadline hullabaloo and we can return to our regularly scheduled programming already in progress, what is the playoff picture looking like in the aftermath of all those swaps?
There were no massive winners of this year's trade deadline. Certainly nothing compared to the Padres acquiring all of Juan Soto, Josh Hader, Josh Bell and Brandon Drury two summers ago. However, there are definitely contenders who improved and others who left us wondering if they actually are trying to win this season.
So let's go division by division with our updated predictions of who will make the postseason, culminating in a rapid-fire prediction of how things would play out if we're right with all this seeding prognosticating.
All records and stats are current through the start of play on Friday, August 1.
American League East
1 of 7
Current Standings: BAL 65-45, NYY 65-45, BOS 57-50 (6.5 GB), TBR 55-53 (9 GB), TOR 50-59 (14.5 GB)
Projected Winner: Baltimore Orioles
Projected Wild Card Teams: New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox
There was already a clear line in the sand between the AL East's three contenders and its two non-contenders. However, the Tampa Bay Rays made damn sure there's no confusion on whether they think they have any chance this season, turning all of Randy Arozarena, Isaac Paredes, Zach Eflin, Amed Rosario, Jason Adam and Phil Maton—But not Yandy Díaz?—into Christopher Morel and a stockpile of prospects and players to be named later.
The Blue Jays also put in some serious work on the selling front, albeit without budging on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette. They did trade away Isiah Kiner-Falefa who was signed through 2025, but they otherwise just unloaded all of their impending free agents.
As far as it goes for the two teams battling atop the division, the Yankees made one of the biggest splashes of the deadline in acquiring Jazz Chisholm Jr., who proceeded to hit four home runs in his first three games. They could've done more, though, particularly in the bullpen. After long assuming Tanner Scott would land in New York, getting nothing more than Mark Leiter Jr. was a letdown.
That may well keep them from finishing ahead of the Orioles, who ended up being one of the most willing spenders at the deadline, bringing in Zach Eflin, Trevor Rogers, Eloy Jiménez and more in their quest to hold off the Yankees. There may be some disappointment that they were unable to get Tarik Skubal or Garrett Crochet, but they did well and should win the division.
Lastly, but perhaps most notably, the Red Sox. They now have both MLB players named Jansen after their acquisition of the former Blue Jays catcher. Danny Jansen immediately had a two-hit game in his Boston debut and could be key down the stretch. But the bigger deal is the pitching they added, in the form of starter James Paxton, long reliever Quinn Priester and late-inning options Lucas Sims and Luis Garcia.
Will it be enough to erase what was a six-game deficit and battle the O's and Yanks for the division crown? Probably not. But they did a whole heck of a lot more than Minnesota did and ought to be able to supplant the Twins in the wild card picture.
American League Central
2 of 7
Current Standings: CLE 66-42, KCR 61-49 (6 GB), MIN 59-48 (6.5 GB), DET 52-58 (15 GB), CHW 27-84 (40.5 GB)
Projected Winner: Cleveland Guardians
Projected Wild Card Teams: None
The Cleveland Guardians didn't do much in terms of quantity at the deadline, but they did address their two biggest needs with the acquisitions of Lane Thomas and Alex Cobb. The latter has yet to pitch in the majors in 2024, but he has been working his way back, making six minor-league appearances in the month leading up to the deadline. He should be part of Cleveland's rotation very soon and may well be their No. 4 starter in the postseason.
Minnesota, on the other hand, did a whole lot of nothing and might be on its way out of the playoff picture because of it.
They needed another starting pitcher and probably should have grabbed at least one more bat, given the injury history throughout their preferred lineup. All the Twins added, though, was an underwhelming relief pitcher (Trevor Richards). Of their final 52 games, they have eight against the Guardians, six against the Royals and zero against the Tigers or White Sox.
The toughest call here is Kansas City, who put in some serious work ahead of the deadline, acquiring Michael Lorenzen, Lucas Erceg and Paul DeJong after previously trading for Hunter Harvey.
Was it enough, though?
For a team that had gone 24-30 in its final 54 games heading into the deadline and one that has darn near the most difficult remaining schedule in the majors?
The Royals definitely needed pitching, and they got two solid arms in Lorenzen and Erceg. However, failing to do anything about what has been maybe the least valuable outfield in all of baseball might be their undoing.
Buckle up for August 23 through September 11. That's when the Royals will play 20 consecutive games against the Phillies, Guardians, Astros, Twins and Yankees. If they haven't built up a solid cushion in the wild card race by then, that's probably when Boston and both teams atop the AL West leave Kansas City in the dust.
American League West
3 of 7
Current Standings: SEA 57-53, HOU 56-52, TEX 52-57 (4.5 GB), LAA 47-62 (9.5 GB), OAK 45-65 (12 GB)
Projected Winner: Seattle Mariners
Projected Wild Card Teams: Houston Astros
At last year's trade deadline, Seattle was stuck in no man's land, several games and several teams back in both the wild card and AL West races with a payroll that was already about 35 percent higher than the previous year. The M's acted accordingly, swapping Paul Sewald for three young bats and turning AJ Pollock and Mark Mathias into a player to be named later—still unnamed, by the way—ultimately missing the postseason by one game.
This year, they were dead set on making sure "trade deadline inactivity" isn't the reason they miss the cut, swinging big for Randy Arozarena before also adding Justin Turner, Yimi García, JT Chargois and a couple of prospects.
Arozarena is the biggest name, but Turner might be the most important one. 1B/DH has been a season-long black hole for the Mariners. They jettisoned Ty France and simply have not gotten anything close to what they expected from Mitch Garver. Maybe Turner can help save what has been the third-lowest scoring offense in the majors, though.
While Seattle went big, Houston and Texas...didn't.
The Astros did get Yusei Kikuchi, but gave up quite a lot for a rental pitcher who had a 6.87 ERA over his last 12 starts. Yes, his FIP and BABIP during that stretch suggest he should be considerably more productive the rest of the way. However, adding Kikuchi was nothing compared to what we're used to seeing from a franchise that re-acquired Justin Verlander last year, added Christian Vázquez, Will Smith and Trey Mancini the previous August and made that big splash for Zack Greinke in 2019.
Texas did even less than Houston, trading away Michael Lorenzen while merely upgrading at backup catcher (Carson Kelly) and left-handed middle relief (Andrew Chafin). It's plausible the Rangers can close the gap just by getting healthy, but it sure felt like they took an "Eh, at least we won it all last year, so it is what it is" approach to the deadline.
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National League East
4 of 7
Current Standings: PHI 65-43, ATL 59-49 (6 GB), NYM 57-51 (8 GB), WAS 49-60 (16.5 GB), MIA 40-69 (25.5 GB)
Projected Winner: Philadelphia Phillies
Projected Wild Card Teams: Atlanta Braves
The Phillies didn't need to do anything at the trade deadline to maintain their grip on what should be their first NL East division crown since 2011. However, it is surprising they didn't do more to address their situation in center field.
Trading for RHP Carlos Estévez was a great call, even if they did arguably overpay for him. Whether he becomes the primary closer or just one of their many late-inning options remains to be seen, but that was a big one. Adding Austin Hays to play left field and putting Brandon Marsh in center felt like a half-measure, though, after all that Luis Robert Jr. and Jazz Chisholm Jr. speculating.
But, again, Philadelphia should still win the division comfortably, in part because it was still more upgrading than Atlanta did.
With the Braves falling apart at the seams and barely clinging to one of the three completely-up-for-grabs NL wild-card spots, they merely added Jorge Soler and swapped out Tyler Matzek for Luke Jackson.
Considering their wide-spread injury situation and considering they swung what felt like 74 trades during the offseason, it's surprising they only made one move. And if they get the April/May, 2022, first-half of 2021 version of Soler as opposed to the June/July, 2023, second-half of 2021 version of Soler, they're in trouble.
Meanwhile, it had already been feeling for weeks like the Mets might be gearing up to overtake Atlanta for second place in the NL East, and that looks even more plausible now after all they got at the deadline.
Losing Kodai Senga for the year to a calf injury just days before the deadline was a tough blow, but they softened it a bit with the acquisition of former Oakland Athletic Paul Blackburn. The Mets also made some bullpen moves in adding Phil Maton (much earlier in the month) and Ryne Stanek and made a key corner-outfielder pickup in Jesse Winker.
Nothing individually huge, but a solid overall approach that might get them across the finish line. We have them finishing just shy of the No. 6 seed, though.
National League Central
5 of 7
Current Standings: MIL 61-47, STL 56-53 (5.5 GB), PIT 55-53 (6 GB), CIN 52-56 (9 GB), CHC 53-58 (9.5 GB)
Projected Winner: St. Louis Cardinals
Projected Wild Card Teams: Milwaukee Brewers
St. Louis finishing with a flourish has been—for fans of NL teams other than the Cardinals—annoying inevitable for much of the past half-decade.
Not last year, of course. That was one of the worst seasons in franchise history. But between 2019, 2021 and 2022, they had a combined record of 111-62 from August 1 onward. They also had a strong finish to the truncated 2020 campaign, surging from ninth place to the No. 5 seed by winning eight of their final 12 games.
It's just what they do. And they've already had the best record in the National League (41-29) dating back to mid-May when it looked like they were destined to be sellers at the deadline for the second straight year.
Instead, they added Erick Fedde to a rotation that needed an arm and Tommy Pham to an OF/DH situation in need of a bat.
The Cardinals' year-to-date run differential is unsightly, but they could be gearing up to go on another late-season tear.
Meanwhile, Milwaukee left the door wide open for the Cardinals with its half-hearted approach to the deadline.
Christian Yelich is out indefinitely with a back injury that was initially feared could necessitate season-ending surgery. He's going to try to rest and rehab his way back before the end of the year, but the Brewers could be without by far their best hitter for a while.
Their rotation was already a major question mark, and they merely added Frankie Montas, who had a 5.01 ERA in 19 starts with the Reds. When he took the mound Friday night—taking Joe Ross' spot in the rotation, who had virtually identical numbers to Montas this season—he became their 17th different starting pitcher of the season, as they continually search for answers sans Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff.
The Brew Crew should be able to hang onto a playoff spot, but holding off the Cardinals for the NL Central crown is much less certain.
But, y'all, don't sleep on the Pirates.
They kind of threaded the needle between buying and selling, adding Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Bryan De La Cruz while trading away Martín Pérez and Quinn Priester. But they've gone 14-6 dating back to a week before the All-Star Break, anchored by Rowdy Tellez and Michael A. Taylor coming to life at the dish in July. They have yet to make any sort of public indication that they plan to limit Paul Skenes' workload down the stretch and just might be the bandwagon that half of the baseball world jumps on in September.
National League West
6 of 7
Current Standings: LAD 63-46, SDP 59-51 (4.5 GB), ARI 58-51 (5 GB), SFG 54-56 (9.5 GB), 40-70 (23.5 GB)
Projected Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers
Projected Wild Card Teams: San Diego Padres
The Dodgers were well on their way to winning this division anyway, but they made some significant upgrades to both make sure they stay ahead of San Diego and Arizona and hopefully overtake the Phillies for the NL's No. 1 seed.
Jack Flaherty was the big one, but they also added Tommy Edman, Amed Rosario, Michael Kopech and Kevin Kiermaier. If Edman can make it back from his wrist injury and play anything like he did from 2019-23, that might be the steal of the deadline.
San Diego made a few big moves, too, adding all of Tanner Scott, Jason Adam and Bryan Hoeing to what was already a strong bullpen.
The big question for the Padres, though, is the availability of the stars that were already on their roster. Neither Joe Musgrove nor Yu Darvish has pitched since late May, and Fernando Tatis Jr. has been out for the past six weeks. Musgrove is working his way back, but Darvish remains out indefinitely for personal/family reasons and there's still no timetable for Tatis' return.
The good news is they have a pretty favorable schedule while they wait for their guys to get back.
The same cannot be said for the Diamondbacks, who have been waiting forever for Eduardo Rodriguez and Merrill Kelly to get healthy, who lost another star (Christian Walker) to the IL right before the deadline and who didn't do much trading. They did make a last minute move for Josh Bell after losing Walker, but that was much more of a Hail Mary than a home run. Aside from that, all the Snakes added is A.J. Puk to their bullpen.
That doesn't mean we're pre-writing Arizona's obituary or anything. They should still be part of a very competitive wild card race that seems destined to come right down to Game 162. Several teams are going to narrowly miss the cut, though, and we've got the Diamondbacks projected as one of those teams.
The Giants are probably toast, though. They did more selling than buying and were already facing a considerably uphill battle. But who knows? With Blake Snell and Robbie Ray both back and looking good alongside Logan Webb, Kyle Harrison and Jordan Hicks, they could pitch their way to one heck of a finish.
Projecting the Postseason
7 of 7
Wild Card Round
AL No. 3 Seattle Mariners over AL No. 6 Boston Red Sox
AL No. 4 New York Yankees over AL No. 5 Houston Astros
NL No. 3 St. Louis Cardinals over NL No. 6 Milwaukee Brewers
NL No. 5 San Diego Padres over NL No. 4 Atlanta Braves
Division Round
Yankees over AL No. 1 Cleveland Guardians
AL No. 2 Baltimore Orioles over Mariners
NL No. 1 Philadelphia Phillies over Padres
NL No. 2 Los Angeles Dodgers over Cardinals
League Championship Series
ALCS: Orioles over Yankees
NLCS: Phillies over Dodgers
World Series: Phillies over Orioles
By the time October rolls around, we'll probably talk ourselves into yet another instance of a No. 5 or No. 6 seed reaching the World Series—especially if it's the Padres getting all of Fernando Tatis Jr., Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish back in time to shine.
Likewise, if Alex Cobb pitches well down the stretch for the Guardians, maybe they can emerge as the favorite in the AL. However, that rotation in its current state isn't striking fear into the hearts of anyone.
For now, the four teams we have projected to reach the ALCS/NLCS sure feel like the ones to beat.
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