Why the Dallas Mavericks Are Doomed for an Early Playoff Exit

The Dallas Mavericks are the defending NBA champions. The NBA champions part has to do with who they were last year. The defending part is who they are this year. That's the part they are having problems with. 

Much has been made of what the Mavericks are missing on the defensive end of the court. Last year they were eighth in defensive rating, giving up just 105.0 points per 100 possessions according to their defensive rating, 102.3 (seventh) points based on their defensive efficiency. 

This year those numbers have fallen...sort of. Their defensive rating is 104.3 (19th) and their defensive efficiency is 102.2 (20th).

While the numbers have technically improved, their ranks are improved because league-wide scoring is down pretty dramatically, nearly five points per team per game. 

The reason for that is twofold. First, offenses are generally more complex than defenses so the effect of the lost training camp is evident. Second the changes in charge calls have free-throw rates significantly down. Last year there were .229 free-throw attempts per field goal attempt. This year there are .219. 

Yes, Dallas' defense is down, and it has a lot to do with the loss of Tyson Chandler. The reality is though, that isn't all they're missing. While they've been worse defensively, they've been even "more worse" offensively. 

This year, Dallas' offensive rating is 23rd in the NBA at 96.3 points based on efficiency. Their offensive rating is 25th at 99.0 points per 100 possessions. Last year those numbers were eighth in offensive efficiency at 107.6 and offensive rating, 109.7. 

It can be argued that the falloff has been greater on the offensive end. However, we're so used to thinking of Dallas as a great offensive team that needed help on defense, we haven't noticed that now they've become a below average offensive team with one great offensive player. 

The Mavericks have taken a disastrous hit in their effective field goal percentage. Last year they were third at .525. This year they are 24th at .454. That's a .071 drop! That's huge. 

In fact, that's where they might be missing Tyson Chandler even more. His .654 eFG percentage last year was the best on the team. A good chunk of those were put-backs, as Chandler also led the league in offensive rebounding.

It's surprising but true. Chandler made more of a difference offensively than defensively. Last year the team's offense was better by 3.29 points per 100 possessions while Chandler was on the court. They were only 2.79 points better defensively. 

Combined, that's 6.08 points in differential the team needs to make up and they aren't doing that.

The Mavericks are going form defending champions to a first-round exit (if they make it that far) because Tyson Chandler was a far more integral part of the team on both sides of the court than they realized.