Bold Predictions for Boston Celtics vs. Dallas Mavericks NBA Finals Game 3 Matchup
The Boston Celtics are up 2-0 on the Dallas Mavericks in the 2024 NBA Finals, but the series is shifting to Texas. And home-court advantage could swing the series for the Mavs.
During the regular season, Dallas shot better at home than it did on the road. Box plus/minus indicated Kyrie Irving played at an "All-NBA" level at home, while he was closer to "All-Star" level on the road. In the friendly confines of the American Airlines Center, Luka Dončić averaged 34.2 points and 10.0 assists per game.
But Boston also led the league in winning percentage, net rating and points per 100 possessions in away games. The Mavericks winning Game 3 is far from a given, but the change of location should help them be more competitive.
And that's not the only potential shift on the way. Bold predictions can be found below.
Kyrie Irving Will Bounce Back...
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The variety and level of defense Boston can throw at Irving is unlike anything he saw in the first three rounds of the playoffs.
Jrue Holiday, Jaylen Brown and Derrick White were all in the 87th percentile or higher in defensive estimated plus-minus (one of the most trusted catch-all metrics in NBA front offices) in the regular season. Jayson Tatum was in the 77th percentile.
All four have spent time on Irving in this series. And all four are either bigger or stronger (or both) than the Mavs guard. He's clearly been bothered, as evidenced by averages of 14.0 points on 18.5 shots, 4.0 assists and 2.5 turnovers per game in the series.
But it's hard to imagine even the best defenders and defensive schemes keeping Irving down for three straight games. Prior to the Finals, he had postseason marks of 22.8 points and 5.2 assists per game, while shooting 42.1 percent from deep.
He may not get all the way back to that level, but he's due for a solid shooting night. And in Game 3, it's going to happen.
...and So Will Jayson Tatum
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Most of the discussion surrounding Tatum in this series has focused on how poorly he's shooting. And yeah, 17.0 points on 19.0 shot attempts per game is bad.
But he's still helping his team win. Tatum's averages for rebounds (10.0) and assists (8.5) lead all Celtics. He's playing good defense on the perimeter. Boston's plus-13.5 points per 100 possessions when he's on the floor and plus-7.2 when he's not.
Basketball analysis shouldn't begin and end with points per game. And you don't have to venture far beyond that column to realize Tatum has been, at the very least, solid during the Finals.
In Game 3, the shooting will finally start to catch up with everything else. Tatum's just too good for this to persist throughout the series. In Rounds 2 and 3, he averaged 28.3 points on 21.9 attempts. Over his four postseason runs prior to this one, he averaged 26.5 points, while shooting 43.8 percent from the field and 36.6 percent from deep.
More of his jumpers will fall in Game 3. Some of those sweeping finger rolls he attempts around rim protectors will roll in. And his numbers will look closer to his playoff career norms.
Luka Dončić Will Get Another Triple-Double
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Dončić put up 32 points, 11 rebounds and 11 assists in Game 2, and it still wasn't enough for the Mavericks to get in the win column. Dallas lost by seven, and it was minus-three when Dončić was on the floor.
Knowing that monster game didn't put his team over the top, expect Dončić to be every bit as aggressive in Game 3. Maybe even more so. He only attempted eight field goals after halftime in Game 2.
Twenty-five to 30 shots are in play for Wednesday. And Dončić's teammates being at home should help them convert more of his potential assists.
That will lead to his 11th career playoff triple-double, tying him with Mavericks coach Jason Kidd. Only Magic Johnson (30), LeBron James (28), Nikola Jokić (18) and Russell Westbrook (12) have more.
Celtics Will Make over 40 Percent of Their Threes...
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There are plenty of reasons for Mavs fans to be worried about this series.
They're down 0-2. Beating the team with the fifth-best average point differential of all time in four out of five games seems unlikely, at best. And through two games, Boston is shooting just 32.1 percent from deep.
Most of that lack of efficiency can be credited to Game 2, but the Celtics were below 40 percent from three in the series opener, too.
And now, they are below their regular-season levels for both threes per game and three-point percentage. Dallas' inability to take advantage is concerning.
On Wednesday, Boston is going to have its best shooting night of the Finals. It shot 25.6 percent from deep in Game 2, and during the regular season, the Celtics were at 41.0 in games immediately following a sub-30 performance.
...and Go Up 3-0 in the Series
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On the season, the Celtics went 36-1 (including 12-1 on the road) when they attempted at least 10 threes and made at least 40 percent of those attempts.
That trend is going to continue Wednesday, and the Mavericks will be on the brink of elimination.
Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean we're in for another blowout. As the predictions above suggest, this should be one of Dallas' better offensive outings of this series. Both teams being on means we should get a higher-scoring showdown.
But part of what makes the Celtics so good is that they can beat anyone in a variety of ways. They have the defensive prowess and toughness to slow the game down and win a slugfest. They also have enough scoring talent and athleticism to win shootouts or track meets.
Even if Dallas can make Wednesday one of the latter, it'll still have its back against the wall afterward.
