MLB Panic Meter on Cubs, Astros, Austin Riley and Other Slumping Teams, Players
Congratulations on being more than 35 percent through the regular MLB season.
If this had been the COVID year, the season would be over by now. Thankfully, these are better days and there is plenty of baseball left to be played.
With teams playing more than 60 games now, enough data and information is available to develop reasonable concerns. Panic, even.
There are teams that started the season hot but have cooled, and there are others not living up to expectations. Likewise with players who are otherwise celebrated but have hit a rough patch in 2024.
Here, we select players and teams experiencing some level of slump or disappointment and check the panic meter to determine just how worried fans should be.
Note: Statistics provided by FanGraphs through June 4.
Panic: Chicago Cubs
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The Chicago Cubs were built to be a good pitching and defensive team to compete for a division title in the NL Central.
So far, they are only decent at one of those things and far from living up to expectations. The pitching numbers are just average, with the Cubs ranking in the middle of the pack in ERA, FIP and opposing batting average.
Only the strikeout numbers and Shōta Imanaga's first two months pitching in MLB are impressive. Otherwise, this is a lightly-hitting team that doesn't appear equipped to make a run this season.
The Cubs are in the bottom third of the league in slugging and rank 20th in wRC+. They rank 15th in runs scored. In May, they went 10-18 and were near the foot of MLB in runs per game.
Defensively, they rank 18th in both runs prevented and outs above average. They are also tied for the sixth-most errors. Christopher Morel seems lost at third base right now.
The Cubs don't play clean baseball. They don't hit the ball over the fence and don't have a bunch of reinforcements coming outside of trades. It's a tough watch and reasonably worth panicking for anyone who had high hopes for this group, especially considering the Milwaukee Brewers' red-hot start.
Don't Panic: Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds
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For the first month of the season, it looked like Elly De La Cruz was on his way to breakout stardom for the Reds.
The 22-year-old slashed .280/.391/.591 for .982 OPS with eight home runs through his 93 at-bats in April. Since then, he's hit just two home runs.
His slash line for the month of May was .208/.298/.287 for a lousy .585 OPS in 101 at-bats. Over his last 60 at-bats, De La Cruz is slashing .133/.224/.183 with 26 strikeouts.
Reds manager David Bell told reporters he thought De La Cruz dealt with fatigue last year, but it does not appear to be as much of an issue this year. Bell said it appears to be less of a physical issue and more of a mental one for the young star.
His strikeout and whiff percentage is in the bottom six percentile of baseball but don't panic just yet. De La Cruz is still young and has yet to log a full 162 games in the big leagues. He just launched a monster homer at Coors Field on Tuesday:
These are the growing pains for a young team that may be turning the corner after an awful May. After all, De La Cruz is the only player who currently has 10 home runs and 30 stolen bases.
The Reds were beaten up during multiple West Coast trips last month but are now sinking their teeth into an easier schedule that should allow them to get back into the wide-open NL wild-card race.
Panic: Kansas City Royals
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The Kansas City Royals are one of MLB's feel-good stories, considering how they've combined homegrown talent with key veteran free-agent signings to create a viable baseball team.
Yet some of the shine has worn off since the beginning of the season. The splits show them to be remarkably consistent so far, and they were 17-11 in both April and May.
The Royals had an exciting walk-off win over the San Diego Padres on Sunday, but they have lost seven out of their last 10 games. They finished May by losing five of their last six games as cracks in the armor began to show.
They are currently facing division leaders for 13 straight games between the Cleveland Guardians, Seattle Mariners, New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers.
Kansas City's future is bright, with young superstar Bobby Witt Jr. leading the way. But right now, it's panicky there with how they've played and who they are playing, especially with the Minnesota Twins and Detroit Tigers breathing down their necks.
It's time for others on the offense to step up aside from Witt Jr. and Salvador Pérez.
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Don't Panic: Austin Riley, Atlanta
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Austin Riley hasn't homered in a month, as Atlanta shows some vulnerability.
The team lost two series against the Pittsburgh Pirates and Washington Nationals to end May after reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. was lost to a torn ACL.
Atlanta's next-best player is underperforming when it desperately needs him to step up. Going into Tuesday's action, Riley was slashing .196/.274/.277 over his last 30 games.
The 27-year-old did have four hits in 13 plate appearances against Oakland, which could have been a sign that he was finding his groove or that he was simply facing the A's.
Either way, panicking would be foolish. He still plays elite defense at third base and hits the ball harder than 85 percent of MLB, and his peripheral numbers are mostly consistent with his reputation.
Riley's expected slugging percentage (.424) and 48.4 hard-hit percentage suggest he should improve from his actual power numbers. It's only a matter of time.
Panic: Tampa Bay Rays
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The AL East could put three teams into the postseason, but it doesn't appear the Tampa Bay Rays will be one of them.
They responded to a rough April (12-15) with an above .500 record for May (14-13). But they will need a lot more than that to get on track.
They need to reinvent themselves at the plate. They strike out a lot and don't hit for a ton of power, which is a self-destructive combination. Only two teams have a worse slugging percentage than the Rays, while they had the seventh-highest strikeout percentage.
Tampa ranks in the bottom seven in runs scored and in the bottom 10 in wRC+. The pitching isn't good enough to make up the difference, especially with how many key starters are on the IL.
Unless you were prepared for this watered-down version of the Rays, then it's time to panic. They are clearly a cut below the New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles, and Boston Red Sox in their division.
To make matters worse, Tampa has the most difficult remaining schedule of any MLB team, according to Tankathon.
Buckle up, Rays fans. You might be a seller at the trade deadline.
Don't Panic: Jeremy Peña, Houston Astros
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For the most part, it's been a bounce-back year for the 2022 World Series MVP.
Jeremy Peña accomplished so much in the postseason in his rookie year that following it up last season was always going to be a tall task. He struggled to hit breaking balls and was a marginal piece of Houston's lineup in 2023.
Then, the 26-year-old started hitting for average this season. He struck .316 through 98 at-bats in April before cooling off last month.
In his most recent 27 at-bats going into Tuesday, Peña was slashing .111/.111/.111. His OPS dropped from .805 in April to .689 in May.
The idea of him having a bounce-back year is more tied to how well he started the season than how he's performed lately.
Yet the Astros generally have bigger problems than Peña. If they make the postseason, their third-year shortstop should be among the least of their worries.
Panic: Houston Astros
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The Astros have been one of the biggest disappointments in baseball. They are routinely one of the preseason World Series favorites, and this year was no exception.
Yet they scuffled to start the season and while they've been better lately, it's still largely underwhelming for a group with such high standards and expectations.
Offensively, their main area of underachievement is situational hitting. They rank fifth overall in wRC+ but drop to 16th with runners in scoring position.
Then factor in the pitching injuries. José Urquidy is expected to miss significant time, and Cristian Javier is having Tommy John surgery. Luis Garcia is still recovering from Tommy John and isn't expected back until the second half of the season, and Lance McCullers Jr. hasn't pitched since the 2022 World Series.
Kyle Tucker, who is among the MLB home run leaders, was seen on crutches after fouling a ball off his shin Monday against the St. Louis Cardinals.
These Astros are still more talented than most, but it's panic time if operating under the usual standard of making a postseason run. Their streak of seven ALCS appearances in a row is in grave danger.
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