MLB's Juiciest Storylines to Follow For the Month of June
June is kind of a weird month in the Major League Baseball calendar.
In March/April, everything is fresh, new and exciting. In May, things are still fresh, but it's also a litmus test for the early surprises. July is the draft, the All-Star Game and a whole lot of trade deadline madness. Then August/September are chocked full of playoff race drama and, usually, a lot of MVP/Cy Young debating.
June doesn't have any of those narrative-driving catalysts.
It's not boring, but what makes June compelling changes considerably from year to year, fueled largely by what stands out at the end of May—when the standings begin to actually matter and when the various player awards start to take shape.
So, what are we all going to be talking about this June?
Our juiciest storylines for the upcoming month are presented in no particular order, but we'll start out with the juiciest* of them all.
*No PEDs-pun intended.
José "Better Than Barry Bonds" Ramírez
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Since the beginning of 2016, only Mookie Betts (52.0) and Mike Trout (47.2) have accumulated more fWAR than José Ramírez's 45.7, resulting in six top-10 finishes in AL MVP votes for Cleveland's third baseman.
Ramírez is having yet another impressive season, leading the majors in RBI while well on his way to a ninth consecutive year with an OPS north of .800. And he has been on quite the heater as of late. From May 5-28, J-Ram hit .341 with 11 home runs and 31 RBI in 22 games—good for a 162-game pace of 81 home runs and 228 RBI, both of which would shatter MLB records.
All the same, he raised quite a few eyebrows last weekend with his proclamation he's better than seven-time MVP Barry Bonds, after the Angels pitched around him with the bases loaded for what proved to be the game-winning run.
Will he back it up with a continued remarkable run through June, or is this going to turn into an all-timer of a "pride comes before the fall" situation?
For what it's worth, Ramírez typically heats up along with the weather. Even including what he accomplished this spring, his career OPS splits go from .802 in March/April to .854 in May, .875 in June and .907 in July. He was particularly hot last June, batting .330 with seven home runs.
Also for what it's worth, Ramírez's AL MVP odds are still +2000 or longer across the board.
Cleveland entering June just one game behind the Yankees for the best record in the American League has been a big surprise, but Ramírez's production shouldn't be. If he stays hot, the Guardians might go from getting the No. 1 pick in the draft this summer to the AL's No. 1 seed in the postseason.
What Does Atlanta Do Sans Acuña?
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Losing reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. to a torn ACL last week was a significant blow to Atlanta's World Series hopes.
By his standards, Acuña was having a rough season. His .716 OPS is nearly 300 points below where he finished last year (1.012). But we all sort of assumed he would eventually rally to some extent to play a huge role for a 100-win team.
Not anymore.
At nine games above .500, the Braves should still make the playoffs with room to spare. However, they are 6.5 games behind the Phillies in the NL East and were already forced to adjust to life without Spencer Strider.
The ceiling feels considerably lower than it did two months ago.
Plus, Atlanta's outfield depth was just about nonexistent, even with a healthy Acuña.
Michael Harris II has played every single inning in center, and there had only been one game in which Acuña didn't play every inning in right field. The only "depth" was Jarred Kelenic and Adam Duvall platooning in left.
Now, it's Kelenic every day in left, 35-year-old Duvall every day in right and perhaps the occasional corner-outfield cameo appearance by Marcell Ozuna.
Is that a legitimate long-term plan?
We'll find out in June, but it sure feels like just a matter of time before they trade for another outfielder.
Atlanta's payroll is already higher than usual, but there are plenty of budgetary options out there, like Tommy Pham (1 year, $3M), Kevin Pillar (1 year, $1M), Jurickson Profar (1 year, $1M) and a bunch of Washington Nationals, including old friend Eddie Rosario (1 year, $2M).
Key Players Returning from Injury
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The injury bug has not been kind to Major League Baseball thus far in 2024.
There are more than two dozen players making at least $5M who have yet to make their season debut, several of whom have already been ruled out for the year. We've also already lost Spencer Strider, Ronald Acuña Jr., Shane Bieber, Jung Hoo Lee and plenty others to season-ending injuries.
But at least there are a number of stars on the mend, likely/possible to return in June.
Gerrit Cole (elbow): Cole has yet to pitch for the Yankees this season after experiencing elbow pain during spring training, but the reigning AL Cy Young winner is working his way back. He has been throwing off a mound since early May, including simulated innings in recent days. Barring another setback, there should be a rehab assignment coming very soon, and he might be back before the end of June. (Outfielder Jasson Domínguez should also be back for the Yankees in early-to-mid June.)
Trea Turner (hamstring): "He's looking to push. We've got to hold him back." That's what Phillies manager Rob Thompson said about Turner on May 28. He has been out since May 3 with a hamstring injury that was originally expected to sideline him for 6-8 weeks. Mid-June still sounds like a realistic timeline.
Josh Jung (wrist): Jung had a 1.415 OPS through four games when he suffered a broken wrist on April 1. The initial timeline was six weeks (mid-May), but it turned into 8-10 weeks once the surgeon got in there and saw the damage done. The Rangers third baseman has been fielding grounders and playing catch for a while now, and he was finally cleared to swing a bat on May 28.
Eduardo Rodríguez (lat): The Diamondbacks invested $80M in Rodríguez this offseason, but there has been no return on that investment yet, as he was shut down late in spring training with a lat injury. He started a throwing program in May and plausible could make his Snakes debut in June, though, they've provided little to no information on his recovery timeline.
Royce Lewis (quad): Lewis began his rehab assignment on May 25 and should be back any day now. The former No. 1 overall pick and career .313 hitter should provide a nice jolt for a Twins squad that has fared surprisingly well since losing him on Opening Day. If he's back just in time for the 10 consecutive games against the Pirates, Rockies and A's, Minnesota just might repeat its 12-game winning streak from earlier this season.
Luis Robert Jr. (hip): Robert—who was injured running the bases in Chicago's seventh game of the season—began his rehab assignment three days before Lewis did, and there have been reports that he may return for the two-game series against the Cubs this Tuesday and Wednesday. Whether he'll be traded shortly thereafter remains to be seen.
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Will the Kansas City Royals Continue Contending?
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Despite a recent rough patch on the road against the Rays and Twins, the Kansas City Royals would be in the playoffs with some room to spare, if the season ended today.
Their ascension from "darn near the worst team in baseball" to "legitimately might be a contender" has been one of the most unexpected, fun-to-follow stories through the first two months.
Will that narrative survive the upcoming gauntlet in the schedule, though?
After Sunday's series finale against the Padres, Kansas City will play three games at Cleveland, three at home against Seattle, four at home against the Yankees, and three on the road against the Dodgers, without a day off during those two weeks
That's four consecutive series against current division leaders.
Woof.
Now, the good news is if they can tread water through that storm, the waves get much less choppy in a hurry. For the 21 games scheduled between June 18 and July 10, they'll get series against the A's, Marlins and Rockies and will only face one opponent that presently has a winning record—at home against Cleveland in a four-game set to close out June.
But these next two weeks will tell us an awful lot about Kansas City's staying power.
Specifically, can Salvador Pérez continue to defy Father Time by raking as a 34-year-old catcher? And is Seth Lugo actually going to vie for a Cy Young award, just two years removed from spending half a decade as a middle reliever? If either of those soon-to-be All-Stars slips, even more weight falls on Bobby Witt Jr.'s shoulders.
Can the Houston Astros Get over the Hump?
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For a time in mid-May, it looked as though the Houston Astros had finally figured things out. After starting out 12-24, they won eight out of nine, vaulting out of their shocking residence in the AL West basement and back to within four games of the division lead.
It was short-lived, however, giving way to a stretch of eight losses in 13 games, including one at Oakland and two at home against the Angels.
And right as they thought the pitching staff was finally about to get to full strength, they lost Cristian Javier to the IL and had José Urquidy leave a rehab start early, both with the dreaded "pitching forearm discomfort" that so often precedes bad news about the UCL.
It's not too late for the 'Stros, though. As poorly as this season has gone, they're only 6.5 games out of the playoff picture with an upcoming schedule that is more favorable than most.
From June 3 through July 4, the only series they'll play against a team currently top 10 in the majors in winning percentage is a three-game set at home against Baltimore. Meanwhile, nearly half of those 27 games will come against the Angels, White Sox, Rockies and Mets, who are on the short list of teams with records worse than Houston's.
Will the Astros make the most of that opportunity?
Or are we destined for some legitimate Alex Bregman trade rumors this summer?
It was right around this time last season that José Abreu finally woke up and started hitting like a guy should for nearly $20M per year. If he can do it again while Chas McCormick (0 HR, .521 OPS) also reharnesses some of his second-half-of-2023 magic (14 HR, .874 OPS), that would be huge.
Have the St. Louis Cardinals Arrived?
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When the Houston Astros were at their low point a little over one week into May, so, too, were the St. Louis Cardinals.
After seven consecutive losses, the red birds had plummeted to 15-24 at the end of play on May 11.
Were it not for the White Sox, the Cardinals would have ranked dead last in the majors in runs scored. They were, in fact, dead last in home runs, with just 28 through 39 games played. And after losing Willson Contreras—at that point, their most productive bat, by far—to a broken arm on May 7, there was no good reason to assume they were on the verge of turning things around.
Since Mother's Day, though, they've been on fire.
From May 12-29, the Cardinals went 12-3, storming all the way back to a .500 record. During that time, they hit .284 as a team, good for the best mark in baseball.
Paul Goldschmidt came to life in a big way, as he, Nolan Gorman, Alec Burleson, Brendan Donovan and Lars Nootbaar went from batting a collective 124-for-600 (.207) to 85-for-266 (.320). Meanwhile, Masyn Winn blossomed from a solid .275 contact hitter with no home runs into a wannabe batting champ (.380) with a pair of dingers.
Even though Nolan Arenado has yet to follow suit, the Cardinals as a whole look like a completely different animal at the plate, winning five consecutive series, including a sweep of the previous unsweepable Baltimore Orioles.
Can they keep it up and track down the Brewers in the NL Central?
They certainly should keep winning in the immediate future, as their next 10 games are against the Astros, Rockies and Pirates.
Is Corbin Carroll Back?
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Corbin Carroll had a fascinating run (both literally and figuratively) to his 2023 NL Rookie of the Year trophy. With 54 stolen bases, 30 doubles and 10 triples, he became the first member of the 50-30-10 club since Michael Bourn in 2011.
Throw in the 25 home runs and he's the only player in MLB history in the 50-30-25-10 club.
As such, it was mighty strange when Carroll went an entire month (April 18 through May 17) earlier this season with nary a stolen base nor triple, as well as just two doubles and one home run.
At a certain point, it went beyond "sophomore slump," escalating to "is there an injury they aren't telling us about?"
But did you know he went through a similar drought around the same time last season? It wasn't a full month, but he went 17 games (from April 26 through May 19) without a triple or stolen base, and just four total extra-base hits. In late May, though, he turned things around and kind of ran away with that NL ROY crown in June, racking up 17 extra-base hits in 112 trips to the plate.
Lo and behold, Arizona's young star seems to be righting the ship again, reeling off four triples and a stolen base in the span of eight games from May 18-26. And then on the 29th, he got his first three-hit game of the season—albeit in a losing effort that dropped the Snakes to five games below .500.
Arizona has disappointed, but it isn't hopelessly gone in the standings. If Carroll is heading for another monster June, it might help get them back into the hunt.
The Quest for 100 Stolen Bases
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To the surprise of no one, there was a massive spike in stolen bases in 2023. Between the larger bases, the pitch clock and the limits imposed on pitcher disengagements, stolen bases increased by 41 percent from 2,486 to 3,503—landing behind only 1987's mark of 3,585 for the highest total in more than a century.
Thus far in 2024, the stolen base rate has gone up a bit more, from 1.44 per game to 1.47 per game, putting the league almost exactly on pace to match that 3,585 total from 37 years ago.
Who really cares about league-wide stolen bases, though?
It's Elly De La Cruz's quest for 100 swipes that will keep everyone checking Reds box scores on a daily basis for the foreseeable future.
The speedster's pace slowed to a halt in the latter half of May. After stealing four bags in one game on May 16, De La Cruz had just one stolen base in his next 13 games.
He hasn't stopped running, though.
The opportunities simply haven't been there.
He has been in a slump at the dish, reaching base a grand total of 12 times in those 13 games. And most of the time he did get to first, a different Red was on second base, keeping him from running.
When he finally got another chance to run in Friday's win over the Cubs, he took it, walking, stealing second (his 32nd of the season) and advancing to third on a wild pitch.
Eventually, De La Cruz's stolen bases will return. And even with the recent dry spell, with 32 in 57 games, he's still on pace for 91. Becoming the first player to reach the century mark since Vince Coleman in 1987 is still a possibility.
Will There Be a Marquee Trade in June?
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The Marlins and Padres got the in-season trading party started earlier than usual this year, with Luis Arráez going from Miami to San Diego on May 4.
It's been pretty quiet since then, but it wouldn't be surprising to see a big swap or two here in the next four weeks.
That's because five teams—A's, Angels, Marlins, Rockies and White Sox—are effectively already toast. And while it's still a little too early to declare the Mets dead, they've certainly looked the part of an irreparably broken team in recent weeks.
With as much money as they have invested in this season, it's unlikely the Mets will pull the plug before the end of June. There are some very intriguing names that should be available from those other five rosters, though.
On the pitching front, closers Tanner Scott and Carlos Estévez are both impending free agents, while all of Paul Blackburn, Tyler Anderson, Cal Quantrill, Austin Gomber and Erick Fedde might be available with 1.5 years remaining. Where things could get really fun is if the Marlins are willing to move Jesús Luzardo with 2.5 years left, or if the A's would consider trading Mason Miller, who won't hit free agency until 2029.
As far as hitters go, Elias Díaz, Tommy Pham and Kevin Pillar are noteworthy rentals, while Luis Rengifo could be quite the 1.5-season acquisition. Luis Robert Jr. would be the real needle-mover, though, signed through 2027 at a very reasonable cost. If the White Sox put him on the block, the offers could get ridiculous.
Most Valuable Player, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year Races Taking Shape
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For all three awards in each league, things are still pretty wide open heading into June. Let's take a very brief peek at all of them, before finding out if any separation will be created in these next four weeks.
AL MVP—Juan Soto remains the favorite for the AL East-leading Yankees, but teammate Aaron Judge sure did close the gap with his marvelous May. This is far from a two-horse race, though, with Bobby Witt Jr., Gunnar Henderson and Kyle Tucker each very much in the conversation.
NL MVP—It's two Yankees up top in the AL, and it's two Dodgers more convincingly up top in the NL, with Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani more or less battling each other. Betts is still the betting favorite, but Ohtani is the one roughly on pace to join the 40 HR/40 SB club. Milwaukee's William Contreras is also having an incredible season, and Bryce Harper will be seriously in the mix for his third MVP if the Phillies continue to thrive.
AL Cy Young—Quite a few surprising candidates with sub-2.00 ERAs, but the main two candidates just north of that threshold are Detroit's Tarik Skubal and Baltimore's Corbin Burnes. Each ace delivered a 7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER gem this past Wednesday, continuing to separate themselves from the field.
NL Cy Young—This is the most wide-open of the six races. Both Philadelphia's Ranger Suárez and Chicago's Shōta Imanaga have put up ludicrous numbers, but veterans Chris Sale and Zack Wheeler are keeping pace and then some. Tyler Glasnow is also doing one heck of a fine job anchoring the Dodgers' rotation.
AL ROY—Before the season, this was a toss-up between Texas' Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford. After a month, it was a toss-up between Oakland's Mason Miller and Baltimore's Colton Cowser. But New York's Luis Gil has catapulted into the conversation with six quality starts and a 0.70 ERA in May alone. Mighty impressive from what was supposed to just be a placeholder until Gerrit Cole got healthy.
NL ROY—Imanaga is still the favorite, but it didn't take long at all for Paul Skenes to make things interesting here, with a 2.45 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 12.3 K/9 in the first four starts of his career. Skenes' teammate Jared Jones is also solidly in the conversation here, as is preseason favorite Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
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