6 Biggest NBA Draft Surprises of the Last Decade
After months of evaluations and dozens of rumors, the official results of the NBA draft are always good for a surprise.
Ordinarily, the shock is a player who's drafted much higher than anticipated. Once in a while, though, it's the opposite: a prospect whose name somehow keeps evading the card handed to the commissioner.
Throw in a head-turning trade of an All-Star player, and the last decade has plenty of notable surprises.
While the choices are subjective, the predraft buzz around each prospect did not match the actual outcome.
Raptors Surprise with Bruno Caboclo (2014)
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You might not know a ton about each prospect. But in Bruno Caboclo's case, you might've been completely at a loss.
Given that he hadn't appeared in mock drafts, the reaction to the Toronto Raptors taking him 20th in 2014 was only reasonable. Caboclo was an unknown forward from Brazil who draft analyst Fran Fraschilla memorably labeled "two years away from being two years away."
And he just never panned out.
Caboclo ended up playing in 25 games for Toronto. He briefly held a starting role for the Memphis Grizzlies during the 2018-19 season but otherwise made a minimal impact in the NBA.
Thon Maker Goes Top-10 (2016)
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During the 2013 draft, the Milwaukee Bucks took a swing on a high-upside international player named Giannis Antetokounmpo. That one worked out pretty well.
Unfortunately, lighting did not strike a second time in 2016.
Milwaukee used the No. 10 pick on Thon Maker, who became the first prep-to-pro player in 12 years because of his age. B/R's Jonathan Wasserman, in his final mock, listed Maker as the No. 43 choice.
Nevertheless, the Bucks gambled on a chance to develop the 7-footer into a floor-spacing center. Maker lasted two-plus seasons in Milwaukee, averaging 4.5 points and 2.6 rebounds before he was dealt to the Detroit Pistons. He last played in the NBA in 2021.
Bulls Send Jimmy Butler to Wolves (2017)
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Ordinarily, draft-day trades are basically just swapping rights to a prospect with future picks involved.
But in 2017, the Chicago Bulls and Minnesota Timberwolves broke the mold in an eye-popping deal. Chicago sent Jimmy Butler and 16th pick (which became Justin Patton) to Minnesota for Zach LaVine, Kris Dunn and the No. 7 selection (Lauri Markkanen).
The original outlook was very unkind.
Moving on from Butler signaled the formal beginning of a rebuild, yet Chicago still parted with him and a valuable first-round selection for a player recovering from an ACL injury (LaVine), a guard who struggled in his first season (Dunn) and a rookie (Markkanen).
The bright side for the Bulls is hindsight does not paint such an ugly picture, largely because Butler requested a trade from the Wolves just one year later.
Michael Porter Jr. Falls to Nuggets (2018)
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Before his lone season at Missouri, Michael Porter Jr. had been touted as the potential No. 1 overall talent in 2018. That upside faded because of a back injury, but he was still considered a likely early selection.
Prior to the draft, NBA.com assembled a 10-mock consensus that included Porter as the sixth pick.
He dropped to the Denver Nuggets at No. 14 on draft night.
Porter didn't play in 2018-19 because of that back issue, but he debuted the next season and broke out in 2020-21. He's become a key player for the Nuggets, earning a massive extension worth up to $207 million in 2021 and helping the team win an NBA title in 2023.
It's safe to say at least seven organizations that picked in front of Denver now regret not taking a risk on Porter.
Cameron Johnson, Lottery Pick? (2019)
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Cameron Johnson ended a quality college career with 16.9 points per game as a senior at North Carolina.
At 23 years old, though, Johnson seemed to have a straightforward scouting report. While an elite long-range shooter, he would likely be little more than a complementary piece in the NBA. He checked in 30th on the final mock draft from B/R's Jonathan Wasserman.
Either the Phoenix Suns disagreed, or they were perfectly content to add a limited-but-specific set of skills.
Phoenix shocked the draft world and, via a trade with Minnesota, snagged Johnson at No. 11 overall.
Unlike both Caboclo and Maker, this reach proved wise. Johnson earned a backup role immediately and finished third in Sixth Man of the Year voting in his third season. He headed to the Brooklyn Nets as part of the return for Kevin Durant in the blockbuster 2023 trade.
Paolo Banchero's Last-Minute Rise (2022)
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As the 2022 draft neared, it seemed clear Auburn's Jabari Smith, Duke's Paolo Banchero and Gonzaga's Chet Holmgren would be top-three selections. So, this ascent to No. 1 wasn't unbelievable.
ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski, though, said on the morning of the draft the "increasingly firm" expectation was Smith, Holmgren and then Banchero.
You know, until literally five minutes before the Orlando Magic were officially on the clock.
Orlando impressively managed to conceal its interest in Banchero, who secured Rookie of the Year honors in 2022-23. He followed up that campaign with an All-Star nod in his second season.
Although it's too early to definitively say the Magic made the correct choice, they're certainly off to a good start with Banchero.
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