10 NBA Trade Storylines That Will Dominate 2024 Offseason
The NBA trade market could be hyperactive this offseason.
Even by its own never-a-dull-moment standards.
The conditions feel perfect for a blockbuster-filled summer. That doesn't mean that's what the hoop gods will deliver, but they have all the ingredients to make it happen: Stagnating squads, potentially restless stars, closing windows for contention, acceleration candidates among the rebuilders and a forgettable free-agent pool.
It's the kind of environment in which the league's landscape could be shifted from almost every conceivable angle, but there are some central plot points likely to drive trade discussions, so let's dig into the 10 most significant.
Which All-Star Guard Leaves Cleveland?
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The Cleveland Cavaliers just reeled off 48 wins and recorded their first playoff series triumph without LeBron James since 1993. And yet, they are front and center among the NBA's offseason-overhaul candidates.
That's due in no small part to the fact that Donovan Mitchell could have free agency awaiting him next summer—he holds a $37.1 million player option for 2025-26—so the Cavs only have so much time to convince him to stay.
They also happen to have multiple redundancies on the roster, including between him and backcourt mate Darius Garland, a pairing that may be nearing its expiration date, per The Athletic's Shams Charania, Jason Lloyd and Joe Vardon:
"Rival executives believe the Cavs will have to seriously evaluate the fit of Mitchell and Garland and ultimately may have to choose one or the other. Should Mitchell decide to stay long term, sources briefed on the matter say Garland's representation, Klutch Sports CEO Rich Paul, would have a conversation with Cavs officials on potentially finding a new home for the one-time All-Star."
Mitchell is an in-prime, five-time All-Star with some monster playoff performances under his belt. His trade value should be enormous.
Garland's could be plenty high, too. The 24-year-old already booked one All-Star trip, and his enticing combination of handles, off-the-bounce shooting and playmaking could convince some franchise to fashion its offense around.
It feels like one of these guards is going, but which one and where to are yet-to-be-determined answers with potentially leaguewide ramifications.
What About Atlanta?
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The Atlanta Hawks might be unrecognizable in a matter of months. Maybe sooner.
They haven't necessarily committed to a top-to-bottom reset, but following two first-round exits with a lottery appearance has essentially moved this entire nucleus to the trade block.
Clint Capela and De'Andre Hunter have long held residence there, and the plug could be pulled on the backcourt pairing of Trae Young and Dejounte Murray at any moment.
"The most likely scenario...continues to be that Atlanta trades one of its two star guards before next season," NBA insider Marc Stein said in April.
Young and Murray don't need more minutes together to know this isn't working. They logged nearly 1,200 alongside one another this season—and lost them by a staggering 6.5 points per 100 possessions.
That shouldn't do too much damage to their individual trade values, though. Young is an all-purpose playmaker who almost guarantees his team a top-10 attack. Murray just twice averaged 20-plus points and six-plus assists while operating as the second-in-command and previously earned All-Defensive first-team honors.
The Hawks should get a haul for either one, and their trade partner would realistically think they just landed a difference-maker.
How Much Interest Is There in Brandon Ingram?
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The New Orleans Pelicans enjoyed a pseudo-breakthrough on the injury front this season (until things went awry at the worst time), but they couldn't parlay that into a full-fledged breakout in the standings.
They won 49 games, needed two tries to escape the play-in tournament and couldn't extend their postseason stay beyond the minimum four games.
That was, apparently, all the evidence the front office needed to determine change is required for this organization to elevate.
Pelicans executive vice president of basketball operations David Griffin has spoken of acting with "urgency" this offseason, and folks have a feeling of how that may look. Per Stein, there is a "growing belief leaguewide" that New Orleans swingman Brandon Ingram will be "aggressively" shopped.
The Pelicans, it seems, have deemed Ingram expendable. That's harsh, but maybe fair. He offers little—including reliability—that you'd find in the ideal co-star for Zion Williamson. That player is a better range shooter (by volume and efficiency), stingier defender and bigger off-ball threat than Ingram. Maybe that's why lineups with Williamson but without Ingram (plus-2.8 points per 100 possessions) outperformed quintets that had both together (plus-2.2).
So, New Orleans wants to talk Ingram trades. Who wants to join them? On the one hand, he's a former No. 2 pick and All-Star with some really strong offensive numbers (23.1 points and 5.2 assists per outing over the last five seasons). On the other, he is not a lock for even 65 games (a number he's cleared once in his career), has never become the defender his tools say he should be and is now being dangled by a team that wants to win next season.
If the Pelicans let him go, they need that deal to deliver an impact player. Good teams don't get many hacks at major trades, and this might be the biggest home run swing left in New Orleans' bat.
Any Chance Kevin Durant Wants Out of Phoenix?
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From an asset perspective, the Phoenix Suns dumped virtually everything they had into the 2023-24 NBA season. The return on that investment? Plenty of injury woes, a disjointed 49-win effort and a less-competitive-than-it-sounds sweep out of the first round (Their series scoring differential was minus-60).
Normally, that would make this back-to-the-drawing-board time, but brainstorming only works when there are multiple possibilities in play.
Phoenix doesn't have a counter to this. Its hand is empty. Draft picks are gone. The payroll sits north of the heavily restrictive second apron. The roster is virtually devoid of tradeable players. Bradley Beal is untradeable, as the surprising holder of the league's only true no-trade clause.
The Suns claim none of this has lessened their belief in this group or motivated them to weigh major moves. General manager James Jones says there's a zero percent chance this Big Three gets broken up.
It would be fascinating to know if Kevin Durant is onboard with all of this. During his season-plus stint with the Suns, he's watched them grow more top-heavy and no closer to championship contention. He's seen two coaches get the boot, this lack of depth get exposed and his co-stars battle the injury bug. All the while, he has surely also noticed just how ridiculously deep the West could be moving forward.
So, is the 35-year-old really as committed to the Suns as they are to him? Or might his wandering eye wander some more? There are a slew of win-now shoppers who would welcome him with open arms the second he sends the distress signal.
If Durant is less than convinced about his present and future in Phoenix, then there could be an all-time great on this summer's trade market.
Are the Off-Limits Players in Brooklyn and Utah Actually Off-Limits?
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The Brooklyn Nets and Utah Jazz collectively suffered 101 losses over the 2023-24 campaign. Surely, these clubs can't have an-prime untouchables, right?
Well, the Nets have been aiming to "build and add talent around" Mikal Bridges, per ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski. In fact, they've fielded some monster offers for the two-way swingman and torpedoed those talks. And the Jazz, per The Athletic's Tony Jones, would need an offer "so great that it's...probably not going to come" to think about letting go of Lauri Markkanen.
Bridges turns 28 this offseason and is awaiting his first All-Star nod. Markkanen is a year younger and has one All-Star selection to his name. They are more like really good players than great ones, the kind that support centerpiece talents but look over the skis when pressed into that prominent of a role.
So, Nets and Jazz decision-makers will have to forgive us for joining all the trade vultures in wondering whether these players are actually as hard to lure away as these teams have made it seem? Neither Brooklyn nor Utah has given any indication of joining the championship chase any time soon, so is the plan just for these players to push for maximum mediocrity during their primes?
It shouldn't be. Either one would deliver a mini-mountain of trade assets, which their talent-starved teams could use to chase star potential and maybe one day turn things around—quite possibly long after Bridges and Markkanen have exited their primes elsewhere.
Will the Stars Align for the Lakers?
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In the four seasons since the Los Angeles Lakers were crowned champions, they've missed the playoffs once, been bounced out of the first round twice and made an improbable conference finals push as a seventh seed.
This hasn't exactly been a banner-raising run for a group that's supposed to be in perpetual contention by mere virtue of having both LeBron James and Anthony Davis on the roster.
Had the supporting cast provided...well, ample support, perhaps the Purple and Gold would've remained in the title hunt all along. But when L.A. can merely manage a .573 winning percentage during a season in which James and Davis both clear the 70-game mark, it's obvious this group needs a lift.
And come this offseason, the front office just might have the tools needed to provide one.
"At the time of the draft, we'll have three first-round draft picks to look for deals, which I think will really unlock an access to potentially a greater or bigger swing," Lakers vice president of basketball operations and general manager Rob Pelinka told reporters after a quiet trade deadline.
This should be a swing-for-the-stars summer in Hollywood, where names like Donovan Mitchell and Trae Young are bouncing around. A top-shelf creator of that caliber could do wonders for this attack, but do the Lakers have enough to win a bidding war for one of these established stars? That's debatable, but absolutely worth tracking.
Can the Warriors Find Stephen Curry's Co-Star?
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Stephen Curry was spectacular yet again this season, but ultimately it didn't matter much. Despite his best efforts—manifested as nightly contributions of 26.4 points, 5.1 assists and 4.8 three-pointers—the Golden State Warriors struggled to elicit more than a courtesy mention in championship talks.
Maybe that's for the better. Consecutive seasons averaging 45 wins and half of a series victory send a clear and convincing message that this core doesn't have enough to contend.
"We know clearly what this team was. It wasn't good enough," Warriors general manager Mike Dunleavy Jr. told reporters. "There's no doubt about that, there's no what-ifs."
So, how ready are the Warriors to pay up for a potential problem-solver? They have two future firsts (2026 and 2028) to trade plus the better portion of the top-20 protected 2030 first they owe the Washington Wizards, which is a decent offer but not a deal-sealer when considering the caliber of players they're likely pursuing.
Finding a legitimate co-star for Curry would require sacrificing some of this young core. Moses Moody is an obvious trade candidate, but he hasn't logged enough floor time to be a needle-mover.
Would the Warriors be willing to talk about recently minted All-Rookie first-teamer Brandin Podziemski? How about Jonathan Kuminga, whose second-half surge may have moved him into near-untouchable territory?
Those are the difficult questions the Dubs must face if they really want to get Curry the help he needs.
Are the Thunder Ready to Splurge?
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Before the 2023-24 NBA season even got rolling, the Oklahoma City Thunder were already preaching patience and trying to temper expectations for their young team.
"I'm not trying to dismiss everyone's excitement, but we're not a .500 team," Thunder executive vice president and general manager Sam Presti told reporters ahead of training camp. "We have to finish our breakfast before we start acting like we're on the cusp of something."
The young Thunder subsequently devoured that breakfast buffet-style, reeling off 57 wins (matching the sixth-highest mark in franchise history) and picking up their first series victory since Kevin Durant's final season in the Sooner State.
Shai Gilegous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren took silver in MVP and Rookie of the Year voting, respectively. Mark Daigneault was crowned Coach of the Year. Jalen Williams earned first-place votes for Most Improved Player.
This was a season of seismic and wholly substantial growth for Oklahoma City, but what's next? Is patience still the guiding principle for this front office, or is time to dig into that gargantuan stack of draft assets and go chase an immediate-impact addition?
Given how young this roster is, it feels like their contention window will be open forever, but that's not how the business of basketball works.
The Thunder have a chance to strike before the rest of this young nucleus gets expensive, but do they sense a need for a major upgrade?
Will Spurs Accelerate for Victor Wembanyama?
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It's hard to speak of San Antonio Spurs rookie Victor Wembanyama without sounding a bit hyperbolic. It's just that when a 7'4" ball-handling, three-point shooting, lob-finishing, defensively versatile, shot-blocking alien comes around the Association, no one really knows how to react.
Even the Spurs didn't. They opened the season with no true point guard on the floor (Jeremy Sochan tried and failed to function as a jumbo-sized floor general) and with a second big man alongside Wembanyama in the frontcourt (Zach Collins). When that trio shared the floor, San Antonio was steamrolled by 18 points per 100 possessions.
The Spurs eventually wised up and deployed Wembanyama as a lone big operating with an actual lead guard. Not surprisingly, things fell quickly into place once that happened. When San Antonio had the Frenchman and Tre Jones on the floor with Sochan and Collins off it, that net rating climbed to plus-3.2 points per 100 possessions (a 69th percentile mark around the league).
The Spurs are woefully light on talent, and Wembanyama can still kind of make it work because he's such a potent force at both ends. But he needs more help than this roster can supply, so how much does that matter to San Antonio's decision-makers? Is there any urgency to go find that support now, or is there still some runway left to build this up?
After his first NBA go-round, Wembanyama told reporters, "I trust the project," which feels like an endorsement of this slow-and-steady strategy. But he also said, "I wish we were into the playoffs," and, "I wish I didn't lose 60 games," and maybe San Antonio wants to help him fix those disappointments.
The Spurs have a treasure chest of trade assets, and there are no shortage of on-the-market perimeter shot-creators to pair with the 20-year-old. Smashing the fast-forward button is a distinct possibility if San Antonio wants to take that route.
Does Anyone Take a Flier on Zach LaVine?
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There was a time in the not-too-distant past when Zach LaVine would have drummed up real interest in the trade market. With an ignitable three-ball, anti-gravity bounce and tight enough handles to break down most defenders, he has routinely flashed one of the more potent offensive skill sets in the profession.
At present, though, his market value might be non-existent. His name has bounced around for the better part of a year now, and the Chicago Bulls still haven't found any takers. They are prioritizing a LaVine trade this offseason, but it's anyone's guess over whether a deal gets done.
The 2023-24 campaign did nothing to help his trade stock. When he wasn't fighting a right foot injury that eventually sent him under the knife, he was posting some of his worst shooting rates in years (45.2 overall, 34.9 from three). Even worse, the Bulls were significantly more competitive without him, as they fared 4.8 points better per 100 possessions when he wasn't on the floor.
For someone who was already fighting the reputation of being a stat sheet-padder with a limited impact on winning, that number didn't help. But there are two numbers doing even more damage to his value: Three and 138 million, as in the years and money left on his contract. That's a tricky pact to match in a trade, let alone stomach over the next three seasons.
And yet, you're still talking about a two-time All-Star who's on the right side of 30 with a career scoring average north of 20 points. Scoring-starved teams might not be totally out on him, particularly if his trade cost is slim to none.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics courtesy of Basketball Reference, Cleaning the Glass and NBA.com.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on X, @ZachBuckleyNBA.
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