6 Ways the 2024 NHL Draft Lottery Could Impact Trade and Free-Agency Market
The 2024 NHL draft lottery took place May 7 and resulted in the San Jose Sharks securing the No. 1 overall pick in the class.
It is the first time they have ever won the top pick, and it was also the rare occasion where no team moved up or down in the lottery.
Everybody stayed exactly where the standings had them.
Now that we know where the lottery teams are picking, let's take a look at some teams that are potentially most impacted by the results and how it could help shape the NHL's offseason free-agent and trade markets.
Buffalo Needs to Swing for the Fences
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As soon as NHL deputy commissioner Bill Daly turned over the Buffalo Sabres card for the No. 11 overall pick, general manager Kevyn Adams should have started fielding offers on it and exploring ways he could trade it.
On the surface, a No. 11 overall pick might seem like a fairly prime pick, but odds are it isn't likely to produce a star or a franchise-changing player. Even if it does, it probably won't pay off for a few years yet.
The Sabres are not really in a position for patience right now.
The 2023-24 season was a brutal disappointment and extended an NHL record playoff drought to 13 consecutive seasons. If it reaches 14, it could result in a new general manager making decisions after that. And Adams will know that.
As bad as this past season was in terms of results, there is still a pretty good foundation of talent in Buffalo, especially on defense where Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power, Bowen Byram and Mattias Samuelsson could form an outstanding top-four.
However, the Sabres still need more help in the way of impact players at forward, and that No. 11 pick should be one of the first assets put up for sale to help acquire it.
The pressure is on, and that selection might have more value to Buffalo as a trade piece than anything else.
Penguins Missing Big Trade Piece
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When the Pittsburgh Penguins did not win the draft lottery and their pick remained at No. 14, it officially transferred to the San Jose Sharks to complete the Erik Karlsson trade.
The first-round selection included in that deal was top-10 protected, and had the Penguins won the lottery and moved closer to the top of the draft, they would have had the option to keep the pick and instead send their 2025 selection to San Jose.
But that didn't happen.
With no first-round pick (as of now), the Penguins are missing a fairly big potential trade chip for the offseason when it comes to building out their current roster.
(There is a chance they could still end up with a first-round pick if Carolina reaches the Stanley Cup Final. In the event that happens, the Penguins will get the Hurricanes' first-rounder as part of the Jake Guentzel trade).
Even though the Penguins have missed the playoffs two years in a row, they are still probably not in a position where they are going to want to go with a full-scale rebuild. Not as long as Sidney Crosby is still on the roster and playing the way he is.
Given how thin their farm system is and how few young players they have to dangle as trade bait, and how many no-movement clauses they have on their NHL roster, a first-round pick would have been a strong trade chip to have.
They don't have that, though, and they are going to have to get creative when it comes to building the roster.
Karlsson's debut season in Pittsburgh was a little underwhelming given the preseason hype, but he is still a good player and the first-round pick was really the only valuable asset they sent to San Jose to acquire him. It does leave them a little short on potential trade chips this summer, though.
That could push the Penguins into a position where they might need to explore more of the free-agency market than trades.
Philadelphia Has Options
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The Philadelphia Flyers are going to be one of the more fascinating teams to watch this offseason.
On one hand, they are still very much in the middle of a rebuild; on the other, they also took a big step forward during the 2023-24 season and remained in the playoff race far longer than anybody could have reasonably expected them to.
They took such a big step forward in such a short period of time that missing the playoffs actually turned into a major disappointment for the Flyers.
Philadelphia did a lot of things well this past season defensively, but it fell short when it came to its offense and goaltending depth. They are two big areas that will need to be addressed this offseason.
What makes the Flyers so fascinating this offseason is that they have some serious options when it comes to their draft pick situation.
Along with their own pick (No. 12 overall), they also have the Florida Panthers' first-round pick as part of the Claude Giroux trade from two years ago.
They could keep one pick and trade the other for immediate help, or they could keep both picks and add two more pieces to their rebuild. They could even try to package both picks together to either A) move up in the draft, or B) swing for a serious impact player in the trade market.
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San Jose Can Really Jump-Start Its Rebuild
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The San Jose Sharks were expected to be bad during the 2024-25 season, and in some ways, they ended up being even worse than anticipated.
The good news that comes from that? They won the 2024 NHL draft lottery and received the No. 1 overall pick for the first time in franchise history.
While expected No. 1 pick Macklin Celebrini does not quite project to be on the Sidney Crosby, Alex Ovechkin, Connor McDavid or Connor Bedard scale of No. 1 overall selections, he still has a chance to be a superstar in the league and there is little chance it gets traded.
Getting the No. 14 overall pick from Pittsburgh is where the intrigue might come in.
Having two top-15 picks in the same draft class is a big advantage and could help the Sharks really jump-start their rebuild.
Landing a top pick gets the clock ticking on their plans because a rebuilding team will want to try to capitalize on that young star early in their career when they are still cheap against the salary cap.
The Sharks need help at pretty much every position and need to start rapidly building around Celebrini. They only have 12 players under contract for this season, have almost zero long-term commitments and more than $38 million in salary-cap space to play with this offseason.
They also have multiple first-round picks in both the 2024 and 2025 classes.
Even if they did not trade the No. 14 pick for immediate help, it might be a good opportunity to try to move back and accumulate more picks in 2024 or future picks that could be flipped later.
Devils Have No Excuse Not to Fix Their Needs
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There was no bigger disappointment during the 2023-24 season than the New Jersey Devils.
After becoming what looked to be a bona fide Stanley Cup contender in 2022-23, they entered the past season with sky-high expectations and the look of a team that was set up for long-term success.
They still well may be.
However, they had some serious flaws on this year's roster that need to be addressed in a big way, and there is no position where that is more true than goalie.
That was one of the biggest Achilles' heels on this year's team, and it was obvious from the start that it was going to be an issue. It was, but the Devils waited way too long to try to fix it when the season had already slipped away from them.
They can not ignore it this year.
The No. 10 overall pick would be a good way to work toward fixing it, and New Jersey might have a big advantage over the other contenders in the NHL when it comes to addressing its needs.
The Devils have nearly $20 million in salary-cap space to work with, and they are another team where a pick in the Nos. 10-15 range probably has more value to them as a trade chip than a draft asset.
Their window is open right now. They need to do everything in their power to take advantage of that. If that pick could be the centerpiece of a trade package to (hypothetically speaking) land somebody like Juuse Saros, they should be all over it.
Utah Could (and Should) Go for Big Move
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Utah could be a real sleeper team, not only for the offseason but also for the 2024-25 season overall.
There is a good foundation of talent in place, especially at forward with Clayton Keller and Logan Cooley being two of the bigger centerpiece players.
The new team is also now in a position where it might have a serious NHL ownership situation that allows them to operate like a normal, functioning professional sports franchise.
There is also going to be a desire—perhaps even a need—to win to help start building a fanbase in its new home market.
Utah has $43 million in salary-cap space and the No. 6 overall pick in the draft. It also has seven picks in the first three rounds this season, seven in the first three rounds next season and six in the first three rounds in 2026. All of that capital includes 10 picks in the second round over that three-year stretch.
It should try to put some of those draft assets and some of that salary-cap space to work this offseason, especially given the number of needs it has and the fact that it doesn't have a single defenseman currently under contract for the 2024-25 season.
As soon as Utah did not move into the top three of the draft, it should have opened the door to offers on its No. 6 pick, especially if it could help the team land a significant piece for its blue line.
Even if it keeps the pick and tries to land another star, the salary-cap space and new ownership situation should put Utah in the driver's seat for some big offseason moves.
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