10 NBA Draft Storylines You Need To Know
The 2024 NBA draft lacks a clear-cut, consensus top prospect.
That means even though the annual talent grab is less than two months away, it's still unknown which name will be called first.
That perhaps doesn't indicate rave reviews of the superstar potential with this prospect class, but it does create a compelling storyline to track throughout the remainder of the pre-draft process. And that's just one of many draft-related narratives worth putting on your radar already.
Lottery Watch
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The order for the back half of the first round has already been set. As for the first 14 picks, though, those won't be decided until the draft lottery is held on May 12. The Detroit Pistons and Washington Wizards have the best odds of getting the No. 1 pick (14 percent), but six other teams have better than a five percent chance of snagging the top selection.
While every lottery participant will be watching to see how the ping-pong balls bounce, a few clubs will be especially interested in the results. That's because several previously traded picks have protections on them that hinge on how the lottery shakes out.
The Toronto Raptors' pick, for instance, is only theirs if it lands inside of the top six. Otherwise, it belongs to the San Antonio Spurs. The Utah Jazz, meanwhile, have top-10 protection on the pick they owe the Oklahoma City Thunder. Finally, the Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors need to strike lottery gold and jump into the top four or they'll lose their picks to the Thunder and Portland Trail Blazers, respectively.
Draft Combine Changes
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The annual NBA combine could have extra eyes on it this year. That's because, due to the league's latest collective bargaining agreement, more combine participation is mandated than before.
"All invitees are now required to attend and participate in testing and drills (live scrimmages remain optional)," The Athletic's Mike Vorkunov noted last June. "Prospects will also have to undergo medical testing and exams, which were previously optional. If a player doesn't full those obligations, he will be made ineligible for the draft."
There are some exceptions—like injuries, family tragedies or international players still playing for their club teams—but even then, the league has mandated getting those things (particularly the testing) done at a later date to remain eligible for the draft.
This could perhaps be the most informative combine to date. Still, we'll have to wait and see exactly how the top prospects approach these new requirements.
Two-Day Event
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Another twist to this year's draft is the schedule. It's a two-night event this time around with the first round held on June 26 and the second on June 27. The league also expanded the time allowed between second-round picks from two minutes to four minutes.
"Based on feedback about the NBA draft format from basketball executives around the league and my own experience in draft rooms, we believe that teams will benefit from being able to regroup between rounds and having additional time to make decisions during the second round," NBA executive vice president Joe Dumars said in a statement.
With more time to both strategize and execute said strategies, the format shift should give front offices additional time to make trades. Or maybe the lack of a ticking clock will wind up making them less incentivized to act, since they'll have extra time to second-guess their decisions. We won't know the impact of the new two-night format until we see it in practice for the first time.
The Race for No. 1 Is Ongoing
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If you've paid any attention to this draft class, then you probably know the general perception of it isn't great. And that's being as polite as we can be possibly be.
One of the primary criticisms is its lack of a consensus top prospect. French 7-footer Alex Sarr is most commonly mocked at No. 1 now, but a month ago, the same would've been said of French swingman Zaccharie Risacher, who suddenly doesn't seem like a lock for the top five.
If prospect values are still liquid at this point of the process, that feels highly unlikely to change between now and June 26. It isn't often we see a stunner with the first overall pick, but this draft could be an exception.
March Madness Made an Impact
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After back-to-back national championship runs, it's not at all surprising to see the UConn Huskies be well represented in mock drafts.
The latest two-round mock from B/R's Jonathan Wasserman featured five different Huskies: Donovan Clingan at No. 5, Stephon Castle at No. 6, Alex Karaban at No. 42, Tristen Newton at No. 52 and Cam Spencer at No. 56.
Beyond that, Wasserman's mock included several players who starred at this year's March Madness tournament. That includes Tennessee scoring swingman Dalton Knecht (No. 9) and Purdue center Zach Edey (No. 23), both of whom engineered at least one 30-point outburst on college basketball's biggest stage.
Trade Market Could Be Extra Active
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It's still early into the NBA playoffs, and already the list of teams seemingly in need of a summer shake-up is extensive. It might only increase as more franchises learn they won't be accomplishing their greatest goals, and who knows how these postseason exits will be handled by the marquee players involved.
That's a long-winded way of saying the trade market could be hyperactive this summer.
"There will be a lot of parts moved this offseason," an Eastern Conference executive told The Ringer's Howard Beck in February. "There's going to be some options, some high-level guys that ask to get moved."
While this trade activity could come at any time, draft night—or draft nights, rather—is as good a time as any to get some blockbuster talks rolling. And with extra time to hold those talks this year, a deluge of deals could be in the works.
Near-Future Picks Could Be Closely Guarded
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For all of the trade talks likely to happen between now and late June, here's what you're unlikely to hear: Rumblings around non- or very-lightly-protected picks for either of the next two drafts.
Granted, there is so much we don't know yet about the 2025 and 2026 draft classes, but we do know they're generally regarded as having the star power that this current prospect crop lacks.
The 2025 class already has "two franchise-caliber talents in Cooper Flagg and Ace Bailey," according to ESPN's Jonathan Givony. The 2026 draft has multiple potential game-changers at the top—like Cam Boozer and AJ Dybantsa—and potentially plenty of depth behind them.
If teams don't make potentially early picks in 2025 and 2026 totally off-limits, expect them to demand—and quite possibly receive—a premium in return for them.
How Early Is Too Early for Dalton Knecht?
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Most mock draft boards you'll find are, as per usual, almost exclusively populated at the top by college underclassmen and international teenagers. Fifteen of Wasserman's first 16 prospects picked meet that criteria.
The only one who doesn't is Dalton Knecht, a 23-year-old out of Tennessee who just completed his fifth season of college ball. That puts him closer to his ceiling, in theory at least, than virtually anyone else being considered as a lottery pick. At a certain point, his established skills will be more valuable than other prospects' perceived upside, but everyone might have different ideas for what that point is.
Wasserman mocked Knecht at No. 9, noting he is "perceived as one of the surest bets on the board." The Ringer's Kevin O'Connor, meanwhile, mocked Knecht at No. 4, but immediately wondered "is this pick too high?" and conceded that "perhaps it is."
The Zach Edey Debate
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No one would question whether Zach Edey has been one of college basketball's most dominant players over the past two seasons. If there was any debate on that, the fact he became the first men's back-to-back Wooden Award winner since 1983 should've settled that.
What plenty of folks are questioning, though, is where the 7'4", 300-pounder and his interior skills fit in the modern NBA.
"He will be a polarizing prospect in this draft," an Eastern Conference executive told Fox Sports' Ric Bucher. "Teams that like him will point to his massive size and ability to score effectively in the lane and consider him as a mid-to-late first-round pick. Teams that don't like him will point to his vulnerability as a defender and lack of passing and face-up game and consider him in the 30 to 45-pick range as a functional backup."
Edey was unstoppable in college—25.2 points per game on 62.3 percent shooting this past season—but will an NBA team call enough post-up plays for him to operate where he works best? Given his limited speed and mobility, he'll be targeted relentlessly away from the basket, so he needs a team to believe he can defend well enough to stay on the floor or at least score enough points to make the trade-off worth it.
Bronny James a Link to LeBron?
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Bronny James holds some prospect appeal on his own, but maybe not enough where he'd be drafted in a vacuum. His debut season of college ball was delayed by a heart issue and never really got going. He wound up averaging just 4.8 points on 36.6 percent shooting, 2.8 rebounds and 2.1 assists in 19.4 minutes over 25 outings.
The mock drafts from Wasserman and O'Connor make no mention of James. The actual NBA draft still could, though. That's partly because he has some interesting tools and talents for a 19-year-old, but it's also the fact his father, LeBron James, has for years publicly expressed the goal of playing alongside him. So, if drafting Bronny means potentially adding LeBron, who can enter free agency this offseason, that's a situation many teams could explore.
"I know some teams would consider drafting him on the hope they can sign LeBron, as well," an Eastern Conference executive told ESPN's Jeremy Woo. "... I think a lot of teams will take the stance that they'll draft him if there's a one percent chance LeBron will join them."
Count the Los Angeles Lakers among those teams. They "badly" want LeBron back and "are very open to the prospect of helping LeBron fulfill his dream of playing with his son Bronny by potentially drafting him," per The Athletic's Shams Charania, Jovan Buha and Sam Amick.
