Predicting Each MLB Team's Most Valuable Player in 2024
The 2024 MLB season is well and truly out of abstraction territory. It's happening, which means it's on for all sorts of races around the league.
The one in focus today: Which player will emerge as his team's Most Valuable Player?
An exercise like this is easily projectable, but it's more fun to treat it as predictable. As in, not so much something rooted in carefully calculated logic, but in gut feeling.
So while I did consult ZiPS projections (specifically the Depth Charts variety that account for likely playing time) for 2024, I wasn't above zagging where they zigged. To give you an idea, you won't find Ronald Acuña Jr., Adley Rutschman or Corey Seager among my picks.
Let's go one at a time in alphabetical order by city.
Arizona Diamondbacks: RF Corbin Caroll
1 of 30
Age: 23
2024 Projections: 157 G, 679 PA, 21 HR, 43 SB, .272 AVG, .354 OBP, .460 SLG, 4.9 WAR
The Diamondbacks are a target-rich environment for MVP picks, with some of the more tempting options consisting of Zac Gallen, Ketel Marte and even Jordan Montgomery if he hits the ground running whenever he's ready to pitch.
But sometimes you just have to nod your head at the obvious. That's the case here, as Corbin Carroll is A) already really good and B) probably hasn't peaked yet.
It feels weird to say this about a guy who debuted with 25 home runs and 54 stolen bases, but what could really elevate Carroll in 2024 is if his power lasts the whole season. It didn't do that in 2023, as only four of his homers came after July 23. Even a modest boost this year could make him a 30-30 guy.
Atlanta: RHP Spencer Strider
2 of 30
Age: 25
2024 Projections: 31 GS, 176.0 IP, 132 H (21 HR), 254 JK, 53 BB, 3.28 ERA, 5.1 WAR
Not choosing Ronald Acuña Jr. or Matt Olson here feels like heresy, but can we agree that it's hard to improve on a 40-70 season and a 54-homer, 139-RBI season?
Perhaps not, but that doesn't mean we can't agree that Spencer Strider is primed to go off this year. The dude was already a 20-game winner and the MLB leader for strikeouts in 2023, but that didn't stop him from pursuing another edge over the winter.
Strider has a new curveball that didn't play an especially big role (he threw only 10) in his debut on Friday, but which was instrumental in him being next to unhittable during spring training. It could be what makes him Atlanta's first Cy Young Award winner since 1998.
Baltimore Orioles: RHP Corbin Burnes
3 of 30
Age: 29
2024 Projections: 32 GS, 194.0 IP, 157 H (17 HR), 206 K, 59 BB, 3.46 ERA, 4.4 WAR
Is this recency bias? This might be recency bias.
Corbin Burnes was, after all, sensational in his Orioles debut. He carved up the Los Angeles Angels in allowing just a Mike Trout solo homer in six innings. He struck out 11 and walked nobody, providing a reminder that not many hurlers mix stuff with command like he does.
This should only be the start of a huge year for the 2021 NL Cy Young Award winner, who's staring down a massive payday in free agency in the winter. If said huge year does indeed materialize, he'll more than bear the weight of a rotation that didn't really have a No. 1 starter amid a 101-win season in 2023.
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Boston Red Sox: 3B Rafael Devers
4 of 30
Age: 27
2024 Projections: 154 G, 665 PA, 34 HR, 4 SB, .280 AVG, .351 OBP, .517 SLG, 3.9 WAR
Before he was scratched Friday and Saturday with what's hopefully a minor left shoulder injury, Rafael Devers wasted no time in doing Rafael Devers things in the Red Sox's opener against the Seattle Mariners on Thursday.
Namely, he crushed the ball. His two-run homer off Luis Castillo left the bat at 104.4 mph, and he later added a double off Castillo that clocked at 110.0 mph. All in a day's work for a hitter who leads everyone in hard-hit balls and extra-base hits dating back to 2019.
Chicago Cubs: RF Seiya Suzuki
5 of 30
Age: 29
2024 Projections: 136 G, 588 PA, 23 HR, 6 SB, .272 AVG, .352 OBP, .478 SLG, 2.5 WAR
The Cubs have a whole bunch of good players, and maybe even one truly great one if Cody Bellinger can bring back the power he had earlier in his career.
The thing about Seiya Suzuki, however, is that he's been raking for a while now. He finished 2023 with a .938 OPS in the second half and the hits just kept coming as he went off for a 1.081 OPS and six long balls in spring training.
The general impression is one of a guy who had to go through an adjustment period, but who's now ready to be the kind of slugger he was in Japan. And that guy had a .943 OPS with a peak of 38 long balls in 2021.
Chicago White Sox: CF Luis Robert Jr.
6 of 30
Age: 26
2024 Projections: 151 G, 651 PA, 34 HR, 20 SB, .267 AVG, .319 OBP, .496 SLG, 4.6 WAR
It is possible to force some concerns onto Luis Robert Jr.
As highlighted by the 30-to-172 walk-to-strikeout ratio he had in 2023, zone discipline and making contact are both big issues for him. He also had a tough spring in which he batted only .200.
Still, a guy coming off a 38-homer, 20-steal season for which he was also a Gold Glove finalist would stand out on any roster. And in this case, the White Sox roster around Robert will only be good if someone sprinkles fairy dust on Eloy Jiménez, Yoán Moncada, Andrew Benintendi and, like, half a dozen other guys.
Cincinnati Reds: SS Elly De La Cruz
7 of 30
Age: 22
2024 Projections: 138 G, 595 PA, 22 HR, 38 SB, .242 AVG, .304 OBP, .437 SLG, 2.1 WAR
There are some things a guy simply wants to be true, such as the notion that Elly De La Cruz's results could be as impressive as his sheer talent.
It's not as if 6'5", 200-pound shortstops with gigantic power, blazing speed and rocket arms come around very often, even if there are two of them just in the NL Central right now. All De La Cruz was missing as a rookie was a good approach, but that might not be unsolvable.
He did improve his swing decisions as last year went along, going from chase rates over 30 percent for his first three months to a 25.7 percent clip in the last month of the season. You love to see it, especially if it carries over into the new season.
Cleveland Guardians: 3B José Ramírez
8 of 30
Age: 31
2024 Projections: 152 G, 658 PA, 26 HR, 22 SB, .277 AVG, .354 OBP, .494 SLG, 5.1 WAR
Somebody putting "José Ramírez" and "MVP" in the same sentence? It must be a day ending in Y.
Yeah, yeah. It's a layup. Ramírez has finished in the top 10 for the AL MVP voting six times since 2017, a span for which his 162-game averages include 33 homers, 27 steals and 5.9 rWAR. He's just one of those guys who's Really Good at His Job.
There's no reason to think anything will change in 2024, and also no reason to think any other Guardian will challenge him for the honor of being the team's MVP. Maybe Andrés Giménez if he hits like he did in 2022, but I'll believe it when I see it.
Colorado Rockies: LF Nolan Jones
9 of 30
Age: 25
2024 Projections: 144 G, 623 PA, 25 HR, 16 SB, .277 AVG, .368 OBP, .488 SLG, 3.5 WAR
Just when you thought expectations couldn't possibly get any lower for the Rockies, they opened 2024 by allowing a historic 14-run outburst in a single inning.
Yet the state of the Rockies has not and will continue to not be Nolan Jones' fault. He was the best thing they had going for them in 2023 as he went off for a .931 OPS and 20 homers in 106 games, doing so with remarkably even home/road splits for a Colorado hitter:
- Home: .928 OPS, 10 HR
- Road: .935 OPS, 10 HR
It clearly helps to have both a keen eye and a feel for barrels like Jones does, and let's also not forget his arm. He's capable of reaching Paul Skenes velocities from the outfield.
Detroit Tigers: LHP Tarik Skubal
10 of 30
Age: 27
2024 Projections: 29 GS, 144.0 IP, 128 H (15 HR), 150 K, 36 BB, 3.65 ERA, 3.4 WAR
It's time for another hit of recency bias! And this one is just as well deserved as the last.
Tarik Skubal lit up the White Sox in his 2024 debut, pitching six scoreless innings on three hits, no walks and six strikeouts. He topped out at 99.3 mph and got 20 whiffs out of 83 total pitches.
Ho hum, one might say. Though he flew under the radar, such dominance was the norm for Skubal as he was racking up a 2.30 expected ERA last season. If he stays healthy, he could even make a run at the AL Cy Young Award.
Houston Astros: RF Kyle Tucker
11 of 30
Age: 27
2024 Projections: 157 G, 679 PA, 30 HR, 25 SB, .275 AVG, .353 OBP, .505 SLG, 4.6 WAR
The Astros have several actual MVPs in their midst, plus a slugger in Yordan Álvarez who's the very concept of intimidation made flesh whenever he's in the box.
But there's also Kyle Tucker, who's still underrated despite being a two-time All-Star who finished fifth in the AL MVP voting in 2023. He missed a 30-30 season by one home run last year and is otherwise one of five players with three straight 5-WAR seasons.
One further appreciates the steady convergence of Tucker's walk and strikeout rates, which nearly collided as he finished last season with 80 walks and 92 strikeouts. If further convergence happens this year, he'll be as well-rounded as any player in the game.
Kansas City Royals: SS Bobby Witt Jr.
12 of 30
Age: 23
2024 Projections: 156 G, 672 PA, 26 HR, 35 SB, .275 AVG, .323 OBP, .481 SLG, 4.3 WAR
Bobby Witt Jr.'s first two seasons saw him rack up 50 homers, 79 steals and earn a $288 million extension, yet it still feels like his peak is ahead of him.
The power and speed are obviously there, as are the defensive chops that could make him worthy of a Gold Glove in the near future. He also made strides with his approach last season, improving on both his walk and strikeout rates.
There would therefore seem to be a very good chance of the 2024 version of Witt being an upgraded version of the 2023 version of Witt. Which is saying something, considering that the latter was a 30-30 guy worth 4.4 rWAR.
Los Angeles Angels: CF Mike Trout
13 of 30
Age: 32
2024 Projections: 146 G, 630 PA, 35 HR, 3 SB, .257 AVG, .366 OBP, .511 SLG, 4.6 WAR
The Angels ultimately didn't have much to cheer for in their 2024 opener, but I don't know if any team needed to see anything as much as they needed to see Mike Trout do this:
What's going to happen next with Trout is anyone's guess, but that home run served to solidify the idea that maybe, just maybe, he can have a healthy, productive season.
The last time he was both for a full year was all the way back in 2016, but it's worth a reminder that it wasn't age or mileage that did in the three-time MVP last year. It was a broken hamate, which isn't the kind of thing that's especially likely to happen again.
Los Angeles Dodgers: SS Mookie Betts
14 of 30
Age: 31
2024 Projections: 157 G, 679 PA, 32 HR, 13 SB, .278 AVG, .381 OBP, .515 SLG, 5.9 WAR
If ever there was a "No Wrong Answer" question, it's this one: Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani or Freddie Freeman?
They've all won MVPs, and all three of them are already rolling in 2024. They're collectively hitting .364 with four home runs and 13 runs batted in, which is even though Ohtani himself has yet to go yard after doing so 44 times in 2023.
I'm nonetheless picking Betts as the Dodgers' MVP because, hey, he already has a leg up in starting out at 11-for-18 with four homers and 25 total bases. And even though this is his first full year at the position, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he picks up a Gold Glove at short to go with the six he already has as a right fielder.
Miami Marlins: LHP Jesús Luzardo
15 of 30
Age: 26
2024 Projections: 31 GS, 173.0 IP, 154 H (23 HR), 196 K, 60 BB, 3.88 ERA, 3.1 WAR
The Marlins were carried by their pitching in 2023, so it's less than ideal that their rotation is missing Sandy Alcantara, Eury Pérez, Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera due to injuries.
Thus there is that much more pressure on Jesús Luzardo to carry the rotation, but he looked equal to the task in punching out eight Pittsburgh Pirates in five innings on Opening Day.
This is Luzardo picking up where he left off after finishing 2023 with a 3.12 ERA and 119 strikeouts over his last 101 innings. If he stays on this track, the Marlins will have a potential All-Star and Cy Young Award contender leading their rotation.
Milwaukee Brewers: RF Jackson Chourio
16 of 30
Age: 20
2024 Projections: 130 G, 560 PA, 16 HR, 32 SB, .263 AVG, .306 OBP, .408 SLG, 1.3 WAR
The Brewers' roster isn't bad, necessarily, but one thing it doesn't have a lot of is upside. That's an issue in a conversation like the one we're having.
It's therefore prudent to throw caution to the wind and pick Jackson Chourio. He's only about a month younger than the trade that sent Alex Rodriguez to the New York Yankees, but I like him as a guy who can make an immediate impact with his power and speed.
Chourio spent last year going off for 22 homers and 44 steals in the minors, especially going off for a .314 average and .894 OPS from July 1 onward. The Brewers saw enough to be high enough on him to extend him. Now it's our turn to see it, too.
Minnesota Twins: SS Carlos Correa
17 of 30
Age: 29
2024 Projections: 138 G, 595 PA, 21 HR, 0 SB, .262 AVG, .338 OBP, .443 SLG, 3.8 WAR
My original pick for the Twins was Royce Lewis, but it didn't even take [insert long, beleaguered sigh] half a game for his proclivity for injuries to become an issue again.
Yet Carlos Correa wasn't so much a Plan B option as a Plan A-2 option. He had a rough one in 2023, but plantar fasciitis will do things like that to a ballplayer. Correa struggled with it all year, so if anything it's a marvel that he played in as many as 135 games.
Correa is healthy now, and he did the Twins a solid by immediately going 3-for-4 on Opening Day. Barring further injury trouble, he's a safe bet for what would be his fifth 5-rWAR season in 10 tries since 2015.
New York Mets: 1B Pete Alonso
18 of 30
Age: 29
2024 Projections: 156 G, 672 PA, 38 HR, 4 SB, .245 AVG, .337 OBP, .491 SLG, 3.0 WAR
Just five years into his major league career, Pete Alonso has already topped 40 homers three times and is the overall leader in both homers and RBI for the whole span.
Sounds like a guy you wouldn't want to face in his walk year, and that's indeed the moment that's arrived for Alonso in 2024. He should be penciled in for at least 40 long ones, and the chances of him landing in the 50-to-60 range are certainly somewhere above zero.
Beyond just what he can do for his personal earning power, don't underestimate what Alonso could do for the Mets this year. He's the guy who figures to make their offense go, which is the key to them realizing their long-shot playoff odds.
New York Yankees: RF Juan Soto
19 of 30
Age: 25
2024 Projections: 157 G, 679 PA, 34 HR, 11 SB, .275 AVG, .421 OBP, .516 SLG, 5.9 WAR
Gerrit Cole is already slated to miss the first two months of the season with an elbow injury, and I honestly wish I had more faith in Aaron Judge's own ability to stay healthy.
Juan Soto, on the other hand, has played in no fewer than 150 games in each of MLB's last four full seasons. And he's already made an impact, helping to push the Yankees to a W on Opening Day with that game-saving throw and otherwise making only seven outs in 15 plate appearances amid their 3-0 start.
Soto hasn't even taken an at-bat at Yankee Stadium, which could boost him to his first 40-homer season if he aims to take advantage of the short porch. Maybe the words "could" and "if" are doing some lifting there, but it's a bet I'm willing to take anyway.
Oakland Athletics: 2B Zack Gelof
20 of 30
Age: 24
2024 Projections: 139 G, 602 PA, 17 HR, 23 SB, .236 AVG, .307 OBP, .394 SLG, 2.3 WAR
Alas, the poor A's. Believing that they're in the same league as teams like the Yankees, Astros and Dodgers is about as hard to believe that those weird Ewok movies share a franchise with The Empire Strikes Back.
But at least the A's have Zack Gelof, who added a bit of brightness to their otherwise dim 2023 season. He posted an .840 OPS and 14 homers in 69 games after getting the call, and he did so while showing a solid feel for barreling the ball.
Gelof kept right on hitting this spring, finishing with four homers and a .928 OPS. So when they're not (rightfully) protesting the franchise, whatever A's fans are left should do Gelof the solid of gracing him with their attention.
Philadelphia Phillies: SS Trea Turner
21 of 30
Age: 30
2024 Projections: 157 G, 679 PA, 25 HR, 28 SB, .290 AVG, .342 OBP, .479 SLG, 5.2 WAR
Bryce Harper is, of course, an actual two-time MVP who put up a .900 OPS last year even as he was recovering from Tommy John surgery and adjusting to a new position. What a legend.
But in context of how his year started, it's arguably more remarkable that Trea Turner was able to salvage 26 homers and 30 steals in 2023. He was ice-cold until August before he finally got hot and ripped off a 1.069 OPS over his last 47 games.
Even Turner can admit that he wasn't fully himself in his debut season as a Phillie, but he also says he's ready to carry over the work he did to get right. If so, you're probably looking at a 30-30 guy who could also hit .300.
Pittsburgh Pirates: 3B Ke'Bryan Hayes
22 of 30
Age: 27
2024 Projections: 141 G, 609 PA, 13 HR, 13 SB, .256 AVG, .313 OBP, .400 SLG, 2.9 WAR
I have a confession to make, and it's that I'm feeling less good about this choice after Oneil Cruz immediately followed a seven-homer spring with a clutch homer on Opening Day.
And yet! I stand by the notion that this is the year that Ke'Bryan Hayes should break all the way out and become more than just the guy who finally snapped Nolan Arenado's streak of Gold Glove wins at third base.
Hayes has always had potential on offense, and he started to mine it as he posted an .874 OPS with 10 of his 15 home runs in the second half of last season. He's already picked up where he left off in going 6-for-13 with three walks in three games.
San Diego Padres: RF Fernando Tatis Jr.
23 of 30
Age: 25
2024 Projections: 156 G, 672 PA, 39 HR, 28 SB, .268 AVG, .342 OBP, .528 SLG, 5.8 WAR
Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts and Ha-Seong Kim are awesome, and the Padres have four starters with No. 1-type upside.
Yet nobody makes it as easy to be bullish as Fernando Tatis Jr. He got off to a historic start as a shortstop between 2019 and 2021, and last year saw him lead everyone in Defensive Runs Saved as a right fielder. He was also one of three hitters to land above the 90th percentile for both hard-hit rate and sprint speed.
Not bad, considering that Tatis was coming back from an 80-game ban and three surgeries. There's every reason to think that the 25-year-old will be even more game to play like a superstar in 2024, in which case his ceiling is through the roof.
San Francisco Giants: 3B Matt Chapman
24 of 30
Age: 30
2024 Projections: 144 G, 623 PA, 24 HR, 3 SB, .241 AVG, .333 OBP, .438 SLG, 3.9 WAR
The simple fact that Logan Webb and Blake Snell exist and are also on the Giants makes the pick of Matt Chapman here a bit of a reach. Or a lot of a reach, even.
But at least among the gang they have on the position player side, Chapman's upside as a two-way producer is unrivaled. We know [points in the direction of four Gold Gloves] how good he is on defense, and nobody should be giving up on him as an impact hitter.
For 2023, Chapman was one of two hitters in the 98th percentile for exit velocity and barrel rate and in the 100th percentile for hard-hit rate, with the other being Aaron Judge. So the two homers he hit in San Diego on Friday? Those could be a sign of things to come.
Seattle Mariners: CF Julio Rodríguez
25 of 30
Age: 23
2024 Projections: 156 G, 672 PA, 32 HR, 34 SB, .274 AVG, .336 OBP, .488 SLG, 5.4 WAR
Julio Rodríguez was running a sub-.710 OPS as late as July 25 last year, yet he still ended up with a 30-30 season and a fourth-place finish in the AL MVP voting.
This plus the fact that his Rookie of the Year-winning effort in 2022 came despite a stint on the injured list makes one wonder: What might Rodríguez be capable of if he has a fully healthy, fully consistent 2024 season?
Big things, in a nutshell. In a slightly bigger nutshell, at least a 35-35 season and maybe even a 40-40 season. And potentially a Gold Glove in center field, for which he was a finalist last year before he ultimately lost out to Kevin Kiermaier.
St. Louis Cardinals: 1B Paul Goldschmidt
26 of 30
Age: 36
2024 Projections: 156 G, 672 PA, 25 HR, 9 SB, .267 AVG, .354 OBP, .452 SLG, 3.0 WAR
The Cardinals did not have a good time in their opener against the Dodgers on Thursday, but it would have gone a fair deal worse if not for Paul Goldschmidt.
The 2022 NL MVP was responsible for all three of the team's hits, not to mention its lone run by way of a solo homer off Tyler Glasnow.
This is just what the Cardinals needed to see from the 36-year-old Goldschmidt after his numbers took a turn for the worse in 2023, but that seemed to have nothing to do with age. He was just plain unlucky, as he hit the ball pretty much the same as he did in 2022 but was left with worse results. Hopefully, the pendulum will swing back the other way in 2024.
Tampa Bay Rays: RHP Zach Eflin
27 of 30
Age: 29
2024 Projections: 31 GS, 172.0 IP, 160 H (19 HR), 168 K, 28 BB, 3.37 ERA, 3.9 WAR
This time last year, the Rays' rotation was led by Shane McClanahan and also consisted of Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen, with Tyler Glasnow waiting in the wings on the IL.
With all four of them now out of the picture either temporarily or permanently, the pressure on Zach Eflin to carry the rotation is so thick that it would take a jackhammer to break it apart. But despite his flop in the opener against Toronto, he should be up for it.
The Rays can count on getting 30-plus starts out of Eflin, who otherwise checks boxes as a low-walk, high-strikeout and high-ground ball guy. And in the form of his sweeper, he has a weapon that potentially hasn't been fully unlocked yet.
Texas Rangers: 2B Marcus Semien
28 of 30
Age: 29
2024 Projections: 157 G, 679 PA, 25 HR, 11 SB, .265 AVG, .337 OBP, .457 SLG, 4.6 WAR
Corey Seager? Awesome. Adolis García? Also awesome. Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford? Definitely on their way to being awesome.
But in this house, we stan for Marcus Semien. He's thrice been an MVP finalist since 2019, with each following a season in which he topped 7 rWAR. No other position player has more than two such seasons in this span.
Semien is also awesome, in other words, but I'm more so picking him as the Rangers' 2024 MVP out of hopes that, for once, he won't get overshadowed by a more attention-grabbing performance by a teammate. That was Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in 2021 and Seager in 2023.
Toronto Blue Jays: 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
29 of 30
Age: 25
2024 Projections: 154 G, 665 PA, 31 HR, 5 SB, .278 AVG, .357 OBP, .492 SLG, 3.2 WAR
You'll just have to take my word for it that this is true, but I want it on the record that I had Vladimir Guerrero Jr. lined up for this spot before he mashed that tank on Opening Day.
Though he was oddly unspectacular in 2023, it's worth buying low and expecting high for Guerrero simply based on how much he didn't cash in on the quality of his at-bats last season. Only he and Ronald Acuña Jr. were in the 90th percentile for strikeout rate and exit velocity.
It also helped that Guerrero had a big spring, posting a 1.218 OPS and going yard three times. And also that, just like he did before his big breakout in 2021, he came into this year in good shape after working hard over the offseason.
Washington Nationals: LHP MacKenzie Gore
30 of 30
Age: 25
2024 Projections: 28 GS, 138.0 IP, 127 H (19 HR), 153 K, 58 BB, 4.27 ERA, 2.2 WAR
The Nationals will become interesting the moment that Dylan Crews and James Wood are together in the lineup. But when that will be, nobody knows for now.
In the meantime, I'm making an upside play on MacKenzie Gore in lieu of defaulting to CJ Abrams, Keibert Ruiz or Lane Thomas. Because while he's yet to live up to his former status as a top-10 prospect, he's still only 25 and in possession of gnarly stuff.
Gore had a 12-start run at the outset of 2023 in which he pitched to a 3.66 ERA with 80 strikeouts in 64 innings. If he can do that again but sustain it this time, he'll finally blossom as a top-of-the-rotation starter.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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