10 MLB Players Doomed for Major Regression in 2024
There is truly a stat for everything when it comes to Major League Baseball, and along with actual on-field production, there is a wide variety of predictive metrics that can help frame a player's outlook going forward.
Those are the numbers we dug into to help identify 10 players who are doomed for major regression in 2024.
For hitters, that meant a closer look at batted-ball metrics like hard-hit rate, average exit velocity and batting average on balls in play to determine how big of a factor luck played in their 2023 success.
For pitchers, expected ERA, opponent batted-ball data and quality of stuff helped put their performance into more clear context.
That doesn't necessarily mean these players are going to be a complete non-factor in 2024, but they could have a tough time duplicating their 2023 success.
Cody Bellinger, Chicago Cubs
1 of 10
2023 Stats: 133 OPS+, .307/.356/.525, 56 XBH (26 HR), 97 RBI, 20 SB, 4.4 WAR
The Chicago Cubs rolled the dice on a one-year deal with Cody Bellinger last offseason after he was non-tendered by the Los Angeles Dodgers, and the 2019 NL MVP rewarded them with a terrific season, finishing 10th in NL MVP balloting and winning Silver Slugger honors.
After a long wait in free agency, he ultimately found his way back to the North Siders on a three-year, $80 million deal that contains opt-out clauses following the 2024 and 2025 seasons.
Will he live up to that contract?
Beneath the surface of his bounce-back season, he had poor batted-ball metrics, ranking near the bottom of the league in hard-hit rate (31.4%, 10th percentile) and average exit velocity (87.9 mph, 22nd percentile), and those marks also represented career lows.
That all added up to a .268 expected batting average, which left him with the eighth-largest gap between expected and actual batting average of any qualified hitter.
The highs and lows of his time with the Los Angeles Dodgers already give him a volatile long-term outlook, and the underlying metrics speak to some likely regression to come.
Shane Bieber, Cleveland Guardians
2 of 10
2023 Stats: 21 GS, 6-6, 3.80 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 34 BB, 107 K, 128.0 IP, 1.8 WAR
Hot take: The Cleveland Guardians are going to regret not taking whatever they could get for Shane Bieber in trade talks this offseason.
The 28-year-old is still chasing the success he found during the shortened 2020 season when he took home AL Cy Young honors, and while he was still a legitimate ace-caliber starter as recently as the 2022 campaign, his stuff and results both took a significant step backward last year.
For starters, his fastball velocity sat at 91.3 mph last season, down from 94.1 mph during his Cy Young season, and he also leaned more heavily on a cutter that opponents crushed to the tune of a .316 average and .503 expected slugging percentage.
Not surprisingly, diminished stuff meant significantly more hard contact, and he ranked among the worst pitchers in baseball in average exit velocity (91.6 mph, 2nd percentile) and hard-hit rate (47.8%, 3rd percentile).
His 4.83 expected ERA was more than a full run higher than his actual 3.80 ERA, and the downturn in stuff makes it difficult to envision any significant improvement in his batted-ball metrics.
Bryce Elder, Atlanta Braves
3 of 10
2023 Stats: 31 GS, 12-4, 3.81 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 63 BB, 128 K, 174.2 IP, 2.9 WAR
How did Bryce Elder go from being an All-Star in 2023 to not even breaking camp with a spot on the Opening Day roster in 2024?
His first- and second-half splits tell the story.
- 1st Half: 18 GS, 7-2, 2.97 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 34 BB, 80 K, 106.0 IP
- 2nd Half: 13 GS, 5-2, 5.11 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 29 BB, 48 K, 68.2 IP
The 24-year-old relied heavily on his sinker-slider combination, and while his 49.9 percent ground-ball rate ranked fourth among qualified pitchers, opposing hitters posted a .278 batting average against his sinker.
Simply put, he did not generate enough soft contact to maintain his success as a contact-oriented ground-ball pitcher, and his good luck on batted balls during the first half caught up to him after the All-Star break.
After getting shelled for 15 hits and 11 earned runs in 12 innings during spring training, he will now open the year at Triple-A as rotation depth.
Josiah Gray, Washington Nationals
4 of 10
2023 Stats: 30 GS, 8-13, 3.91 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 80 BB, 143 K, 159.0 IP, 3.1 WAR
Josiah Gray was one of the key prospect pieces acquired by the Washington Nationals in the blockbuster deal that sent Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to the Los Angeles Dodgers at the 2021 trade deadline.
The 26-year-old took his lumps during the 2022 season, posting a 5.02 ERA in 148.2 innings while leading the National League in walks (66) and home runs allowed (38), but he came out the other side to earn an All-Star selection last year.
However, a close look at his numbers shows he actually regressed in some areas.
His walk rate climbed (10.2% to 11.5%), his strikeout rate dropped (23.7% to 20.5%) and his opponents' expected batting average spiked (.219 to .254), leaving him with a 5.03 expected ERA that was more than a run above his actual ERA.
Gray still has the potential to be a long-term rotation piece for the rebuilding Nationals, but the numbers suggest he's more likely to suffer a step backward than take a step forward in 2024.
Nolan Jones, Colorado Rockies
5 of 10
2023 Stats: 138 OPS+, .297/.389/.542, 46 XBH (20 HR), 62 RBI, 20 SB, 4.3 WAR
After years as a top prospect in the Cleveland Guardians organization, Nolan Jones was a 40-man roster crunch casualty last offseason when he was traded to the Colorado Rockies in exchange for low-level infielder Juan Brito.
The 25-year-old started last season in the minors, but he joined the MLB roster in May and quickly emerged as the team's best offensive player.
His mix of power, speed and defense helped him finish fourth in NL Rookie of the Year voting behind Corbin Carroll, Kodai Senga and James Outman, but there are some troubling red flags that could stand in the way of a repeat performance.
His .401 batting average on balls in play led all hitters who tallied at least 250 plate appearances last season, and while he is a good baserunner with decent speed, maintaining that mark will be next to impossible. For context, the league average generally sits around .300.
A terrific 12.5 percent walk rate and the tools to repeat last year's 20/20 performance should still make him one of the more productive players in the Colorado lineup, but his batted-ball luck will inevitably level out in 2024.
Edouard Julien, Minnesota Twins
6 of 10
2023 Stats: 130 OPS+, .263/.381/.459, 33 XBH (16 HR), 37 RBI, 2.6 WAR
After hitting .400/.563/.686 with 10 extra-base hits in 96 plate appearances in the 2022 Arizona Fall League, Edouard Julien put together a breakout 2023 season for the Minnesota Twins.
His success no doubt paved the way for the team to trade Jorge Polanco to the Seattle Mariners, with Julien now poised to serve as the team's everyday second baseman, but he could have a tough time duplicating last year's production at the plate.
The 24-year-old had a .233 expected batting average and a 31.4 percent strikeout rate, and his 89.5 mph average exit velocity was middle-of-the-pack, slotting in at the 55th percentile leaguewide.
A stellar 15.7 percent walk rate and an elite 14.3 percent chase rate are a testament to his advanced approach at the plate, which should help him maintain an above-average on-base percentage going forward.
However, the OPS+ and extra-base pop he showed as a rookie could be difficult to replicate with the batted-ball numbers he produced in 2023.
Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
7 of 10
2023 Stats: 24 GS, 13-5, 2.46 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 40 BB, 137 K, 131.2 IP, 3.8 WAR
Clayton Kershaw is one of the greatest pitchers in baseball history and a surefire Hall of Famer once he finally decides to call it quits.
The 36-year-old is no longer the workhorse ace he was in the prime of his career, but he has continued to pitch at a front-line level when healthy over the last two years, logging a 2.37 ERA over 258 innings.
He underwent shoulder surgery in November that is expected to sideline him until the second half of the 2024 season, but the Dodgers still brought him back on a one-year, $5 million deal that could be worth another $7.5 million in incentives based on how many starts he makes.
However, his health might not be the only concern going forward.
His 7.6 percent walk rate was his highest since 2010, his average exit velocity (89.0 mph) and hard-hit rate (39.1%) were both their highest since Statcast was introduced in 2015, and his 3.77 expected ERA and 4.03 FIP painted a far less promising picture of his 2023 work.
It's fair to wonder not only when he will be back on the mound, but what level of production he will be capable of once he does return.
Matt Manning, Detroit Tigers
8 of 10
2023 Stats: 15 GS, 5-4, 3.58 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 21 BB, 50 K, 78.0 IP, 1.3 WAR
At surface level, it might seem like Matt Manning took a step forward in his development last season with a 3.58 ERA and 1.04 WHIP over 15 starts for the Detroit Tigers.
The 26-year-old has always had intriguing upside since he was taken No. 9 overall in the 2016 draft after a two-sport high school career that originally had him committed to play baseball and basketball at Loyola Marymount.
He posted a 3.43 ERA over 63 innings in 2022, and his success last season looked like a continuation of that progress, but a closer look at his numbers reveals a less promising future forecast.
His 4.81 FIP and 5.48 expected ERA both tell a far different story than his 3.58 ERA, and he ranked near the bottom of the league in average exit velocity allowed (7th percentile) and hard-hit rate allowed (17th percentile).
He also had a hard time missing bats, generating an 18.8 percent whiff rate (5th percentile) and posting a 15.8 percent strikeout rate (185th out of 199 pitchers with 75+ IP), which is a dangerous combination alongside the hard contact he allowed.
With Reese Olson and Casey Mize also batting for rotation spots behind Tarik Skubal, Kenta Maeda and Jack Flaherty, Manning will need to earn his spot in the rotation in 2024.
Isaac Paredes, Tampa Bay Rays
9 of 10
2023 Stats: 131 OPS+, .250/.352/.488, 55 XBH (31 HR), 98 RBI, 4.2 WAR
Baseball Savant has a "Home Run Tracking" leaderboard that classifies home runs into three categories—"doubters" that would only have been home runs in the leagues 1-7 most HR-friendly parks, "mostly gone" that would have been home runs in the league's 8-29 most HR-friendly parks, and "no doubters" which would have been gone in all 30 parks.
That data is then used to calculate a player's expected home runs total.
In 2023, no player had a bigger gap between his actual home run total (31) and expected home run total (24.3) than Isaac Paredes.
Digging further into his numbers, that's not all that surprising.
Despite finishing eighth in the AL in home runs, he logged poor marks in average exit velocity (86.9 mph, 13th percentile), hard-hit rate (28.5%, 6th percentile) and barrel rate (5.9%, 26th percentile).
The end result was a .369 expected slugging percentage that was 119 points lower than his actual slugging percentage, and regression in that area would take a significant bite out of his offensive value.
Geraldo Perdomo, Arizona Diamondbacks
10 of 10
2023 Stats: 96 OPS+, .246/.353/.359, 30 XBH (6 HR), 47 RBI, 16 SB, 2.3 WAR
When the dust settled on the 2023 season, there was not a more surprising All-Star selection in hindsight than Geraldo Perdomo for the Arizona Diamondbacks.
The 24-year-old had a terrific first half, propped up largely by some good BABIP luck, and when that luck turned after the All-Star break his production plummeted.
- 1st Half: 274 PA, .271/.378/.409, 20 XBH, .316 BABIP
- 2nd Half: 221 PA, .214/.322/.297, 10 XBH, .268 BABIP
A quick look at his Baseball Savant page shows a lot of dark blue, as he ranked near the very bottom of the league in hard-hit rate (1st percentile), average exit velocity (3rd percentile) and barrel rate (1st percentile).
His .204 expected batting average ranked 254th among 258 qualified hitters and is a clear indication that his second-half performance is more indicative of what to expect going forward.
With top prospect Jordan Lawlar waiting in the wings, Perdomo could find himself demoted to a utility infield role quickly if he gets off to a slow start.
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