What Week 1 of NFL Free Agency Might Tell Us About the 2024 Draft
The first week of 2024 NFL free agency has come and gone. Dozens of great players are now with new teams, and while many are still out there, fans will start turning their attention to next month's draft.
With a month-and-a-half to go, the 2024 NFL draft largely remains a mystery. We can safely assume that a few quarterbacks will go early in Round 1 and, as of Saturday evening, that the Chicago Bears will take a quarterback with No. 1 overall pick.
The Bears traded quarterback Justin Fields to the Pittsburgh Steelers on Saturday, which will lead to a few dominoes falling, as Bleacher Report's Moe Moton recently examined.
After the first few picks, though, we still don't know a lot. Or do we?
In reality, the first week of free agency can tell us a lot about how teams view the upcoming draft and how things might unfold. Teams—smart ones, anyway—don't view free agency and the draft as two separate entities but as pieces of the same process.
Here, we'll dive into some of the biggest moves and trends from the opening week of free agency and what they might say about the 2024 draft.
Teams Are Not Impressed With the 2024 RB Class
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A year ago, the running back position was devalued. Pro Bowlers Josh Jacobs, Saquon Barkley and Tony Pollard couldn't get long-term deals, Jonathan Taylor had to request a trade before he could get an extension, and Dalvin Cook couldn't even find a team until the late summer.
Fast-forward to early last week, and Barkley, Jacobs, Pollard, Derrick Henry, D'Andre Swift, Aaron Jones, Zack Moss and other running backs were quickly gobbled up, signed to relatively (for the position) handsome deals. The Green Bay Packers released Jones after they signed Jacobs, and Jones signed with the Minnesota Vikings less than 24 hours later.
Barkley will earn $12.6 million annually on his new deal with the Philadelphia Eagles, more than the $10.1 million he made on the franchise tag with the New York Giants last year.
What changed over the last year? Quite frankly, nothing. Running backs haven't suddenly gotten better—in fact, Barkley, Jacobs and Pollard all struggled last season—or more valuable. If franchises could make do with cheaper options at the position, they still would.
However, the early run on running backs suggests that teams aren't seeing surefire starters in the 2024 draft and moved quickly to secure them in free agency.
This meshes with the evaluation by the Bleacher Report Scouting Department. On its latest big board, Notre Dame's Audric Estimé is the highest-ranked running back. He's only the 41st-ranked prospect overall and doesn't project as an instant high-volume contributor.
There isn't a Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs in this year's draft class. For at least this offseason, that put veteran backs in high demand once again.
The LB Class Isn't Wowing Anyone Either
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While off-ball linebackers are valuable, they don't tend to command the attention of their pass-rushing brethren, defensive backs or defensive linemen. However, there was a pretty robust market for linebackers in early free agency.
Zaire Franklin landed an extension with the Indianapolis Colts on Day 1, while the Washington Commanders scooped up Frankie Luvu. Kenneth Murray, Nicholas Morrow, Lavonte David, Josey Jewell, Willie Gay Jr. and Patrick Queen were off the board by the end of Day 2, before the official start of free agency on Wednesday. (Queen received a whopping three-year, $41 million deal from the Pittsburgh Steelers.)
Most of the top linebackers have already signed, while quality pass-rushers and cornerbacks like Chase Young, Jadeveon Clowney, Yannick Ngakoue, Xavien Howard, Adoree' Jackson and Stephon Gilmore remain available.
Why all the early interest in linebackers? As is the case at running back, the draft doesn't appear to feature much high-end talent at the position.
Texans A&M's Edgerrin Cooper is the top-ranked linebacker on the latest Bleacher Report Scouting Department's big board. He's the 58th-ranked overall prospect, and Bleacher Report's Matt Holder has him graded as a third-round talent.
"Cooper is a bit of a project who might take a year or two to catch on. But in a weak linebacker class, he'll be one of the top options available at the position," Holder wrote.
Teams likely aren't seeing many Day 1 starting linebackers in this year's class. There probably won't be many drafted over the first few rounds unless a team is willing to reach.
This Could Be a Historic Year for Rookie Receivers
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In today's pass-driven NFL, fans should expect to see talented wide receivers snapped up quickly on the open market. However, we didn't see an overwhelming market for the position early in Week 1.
Gabe Davis signed on the first day of the tampering period, while Michael Pittman Jr., Tee Higgins and Mike Evans were extended or franchise-tagged before free agency began. Calvin Ridley did get an absurd four-year, $92 million contract from the Tennessee Titans, but Marquise Brown settled for a one-year, $7 million deal with the Kansas City Chiefs.
Meanwhile, receivers like Mike Williams, Tyler Boyd, Odell Beckham Jr. Josh Reynolds and Marquez Valdes-Scantling remain available. The Los Angeles Chargers only got a fourth-round pick from the Chicago Bears for Pro Bowler Keenan Allen, too.
There's a simple explanation for why teams aren't falling over themselves to scoop up veteran receivers. The 2024 draft class is loaded at wideout.
The Bleacher Report Scouting Department has Ohio State's Marvin Harrison Jr. as its top overall prospect, and it has five receivers among its top 25 players.
According to ESPN's Jordan Reid, we might see more than six receivers go in Round 1.
"I heard a lot of chatter at the combine about how much scouts and evaluators love this year's receiver class. It's not only strong at the top, but there's also depth throughout," Reid wrote. "... There's a real possibility that seven receivers could be picked in Round 1."
We might see multiple quarterbacks kick off the draft. We will see several receivers come off the board on Days 1 and 2.
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Quarterback Talent Drops Off Significantly After the First Few Prospects
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While we don't know who the Chicago Bears will take at No. 1 overall, USC's Caleb Williams is widely expected to be the pick. With the Washington Commanders and New England Patriots holding the second and third overall selections, two of North Carolina's Drake Maye, LSU's Jayden Daniels and Michigan's J.J. McCarthy could be right after him.
As B/Rs Maurice Moton noted, the Minnesota Vikings—who recently acquired a second first-round pick via a trade with the Houston Texans—should already be plotting to move into the top five for whoever remains from that group.
After the big four, there are some serious question marks. Washington's Michael Penix Jr. is the B/R Scouting Department's fifth-rated quarterback, and he carries significant injury concerns. Oregon's Bo Nix is the sixth-ranked prospect, and he appears to be a developmental prospect at best.
"It's a little worrisome that Nix is still unrefined in some areas as an older prospect with a ton of games under his belt," B/R scout Derrik Klassen wrote.
Minnesota's quest for draft capital isn't the only thing suggesting that NFL teams don't love the quarterback depth in this year's class. Teams trading for young but underachieving signal-callers like Mac Jones, Kenny Pickett, Sam Howell and Justin Fields also hints at that.
There aren't many promising developmental quarterbacks in this class. South Carolina's Spencer Rattler and Tulane's Michael Pratt are the only other two QBs to receive a fifth-round grade or higher from the B/R Scouting Department.
Teams are always in the market for young, cheap quarterbacks to develop for long-term depth. The cheapest way to find them is usually through the draft.
Why trade a sixth-round pick for Mac Jones when you can find a depth QB and a new rookie contract late in the draft? Because this year, that doesn't appear to be a viable option.
There's a Wide and Deep Second Tier of Talent
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We saw a handful of noteworthy trades during the first week of free agency, and an interesting trend emerged: Teams seem to value Day 2 draft picks highly.
This trend dates back to last year's trade deadline, when the Commanders dealt pass-rushers Montez Sweat and Chase Young for second- and third-round selections, respectively.
Last Monday, the Carolina Panthers traded star pass-rusher Brian Burns to the New York Giants for second- and fifth-round selections. That's quite low for a pass-rusher who commanded an offer of two first-round picks and a second-rounder from the Los Angeles Rams in 2022, according to CBS Sports' Jonathan Jones.
However, a second- or third-round pick in this year's class might be just as valuable as a late first-round selection because there's a deep and talented second tier of prospects.
"Day 2 and 3 of this year's NFL draft class is going to be wild. There's such a nice glut of talent that runs from about the 23rd overall prospect to around pick 90," B/R's Brent Sobleski posted on X in early March.
Perhaps the most telling piece of evidence came when the Texans dealt the 23rd overall pick and a seventh-round selection to Minnesota for 2024 and 2025 second-round picks plus a 2024 sixth-rounder.
"The Houston Texans took note and said, 'Let's get a free future second-rounder and still land the same caliber of prospect this year,'" Sobleski posted on X.
The Texans are looking to win now. They wouldn't have traded out of Round 1 if they didn't believe they were coming out ahead.
During draft weekend, fans should expect to see more teams trading out of the late first round and perhaps even more trying to trade into Rounds 2 and 3.
There's Talent in the 2024 Class, But Not a Lot of Late Depth
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The draft's second tier may provide a ton of value, but teams could struggle to find roster-worthy talent late on Day 3.
In the B/R Scouting Department's latest rankings of the top 200 prospects, Georgia receiver Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint ends the list. Laube's grade (5.4) falls just below the Scouting Department's threshold (5.5) for draftable players. For context, the 200th pick in April's draft will come in the middle of Round 6.
Teams seemed to treat free agency as if they don't love the overall depth of this year's draft class.. While there's a lot of talent left on the market, the first two days were an absolute frenzy. By Wednesday—the first official day of free agency—teams were snapping up core special-teamers like Miles Killebrew, Siran Neal and Jeremy Reaves.
Special teams is still an important piece of the NFL equation, but it's also often where late-round draft picks earn a roster spot. With part-time players flying off the board in the opening week, a lot of those back-end roster spots have already been filled.
A record-high salary cap may have played a role in the early surge of activity. But as Fox Sports' Rob Rang pointed out last month, a decline in underclassmen declaring for the draft also could have contributed.
"The NFL announced that 54 underclassmen were granted early entry to this year's draft," Rang wrote. "That is less than half the number the league is accustomed to applying for early admission over the past decade, including a record 135 players in 2014."
Teams seem to be preparing for a draft that won't have a ton of talent late on Day 3. That's another reason why we may see teams trying to trade into Day 2 or for future selections over draft weekend.
*Contract information via Spotrac.
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