Predicting MLB's Best Player at Every Position For the 2024 Season
There's a balance in trying to pick the top player at each position entering a given season, and a slew of questions you have to ask yourself.
How much stock do you put into what a player did last year, as opposed to what they've done over the last three years?
How do you know when a young player is set to take a major step forward, and a veteran is set to hit a wall?
Are preseason projection systems, which tend to be conservative, really that helpful?
All these factors were weighed in creating a list of who will be the best player at each position in 2024.
Catcher: Adley Rutschman, Baltimore Orioles
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Age in 2024: 26
2023 Stats: .277/.374/.435, 20 HR, 80 RBI, 92 BB, .809 OPS, 5.1 WAR
After a half decade as the best catcher in baseball, J.T. Realmuto officially passed the torch to Adley Rutschman in 2023.
It's a torch that Rutschman could carry for at least that length of time, if not longer.
He followed up a tremendous rookie campaign by homering 20 times, driving in 80 runs and posting an .809 OPS for an Orioles team that exploded to win 101 games and the AL East title.
In his first full MLB season, he was an All-Star, won a Silver Slugger Award and posted a top-10 finish in AL MVP voting.
Baltimore manager Brandon Hyde did a tremendous job pacing Rutschman a season ago. He caught 934.2 innings but also got 176 at-bats at DH. Compare that to Realmuto, who caught 1,142 innings during the regular season.
Not running Rutschman into the ground during the regular season will help preserve him for the playoffs and also potentially allow him to extend his career behind the plate.
The last catcher to win a league MVP Award was Buster Posey, who captured the NL MVP with the San Francisco Giants in 2012. Joe Mauer of the Minnesota Twins was the last catcher to win the junior circuit's MVP, doing so in 2009.
Rutschman has a real chance to be the next catcher to win an MVP.
Honorable Mentions: Will Smith, J.T. Realmuto, William Contreras
First Base: Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers
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Age in 2024: 34
2023 Stats: .331/.410/.567, 29 HR, 102 RBI, 72 BB, .976 OPS, 7.9 WAR
This was a particularly difficult position to decide, because Paul Goldschmidt won the NL MVP in 2022, Bryce Harper is a two-time NL MVP, and Matt Olson hit a staggering 54 home runs a season ago.
Ultimately, though, Freddie Freeman continues to reign supreme as the best first baseman in baseball. Over the last five seasons, he has gone from being an All-Star-caliber player to one who's a slam dunk Hall of Famer.
That continued in 2023, when Freeman set a new Dodgers franchise record with 59 doubles. The next closest player in terms of two-base hits a season ago was Corey Seager, who came in a distant second with 42 doubles. On top of his doubles production, Freeman hit .331 with 102 RBI and a .976 OPS.
In one of the deepest NL MVP races ever, Freeman had to settle for a third-place finish behind Ronald Acuña Jr. and Mookie Betts. But there are many years when his 2023 production probably would have won him the honor.
One of the reasons the Atlanta Braves let him go in favor of Olson after the 2021 season is because, in theory, Freeman is eventually going to hit a wall. But the 34-year-old has shown no signs of slowing down over the first two seasons of a six-year, $162 million deal with the Dodgers.
Honorable Mentions: Bryce Harper, Matt Olson, Paul Goldschmidt
Second Base: Jose Altuve, Houston Astros
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Age in 2024: 34
2023 Stats: .311/.393/.522, 17 HR, 51 RBI, 44 BB, .915 OPS, 4.0 WAR
If you think this is the wrong second basemen who plays in the state of Texas, fair enough. Marcus Semien played all 162 games for the Rangers a season ago, posting an .826 OPS and finishing third in AL MVP voting.
However, there's a weird trend with Semien where he's a superstar in odd years and just a nice player in even years, which 2024 is one of. Some things in baseball don't have to make sense to still be valid.
Also, Altuve put up a full season's worth of production in just 90 games a season ago after returning from a right thumb fracture that he sustained during the World Baseball Classic. If you project the numbers that he put up in just over half a season to a full campaign, he may well have finished runner-up to Shohei Ohtani for AL MVP.
Altuve isn't a Gold Glove-caliber defender, but the two primary defensive metrics are divided on just how poor he is as a fielder. His minus-13 defensive runs saved in 90 games a year ago are alarmingly bad. However, his minus-1 outs above average suggest he's close to a replacement level defender.
But Altuve's bat—and the fact that it's an even year—give him a slight edge over Semien here.
Honorable Mentions: Marcus Semien, Ketel Marte, Luis Arráez
Shortstop: Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers
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Age in 2024: 31
2023 Stats: .307/.408/.579, 39 HR, 107 RBI, 96 BB, .987 OPS, 8.3 WAR
The Dodgers could ask Mookie Betts to be their Opening Day starting pitcher, and it probably wouldn't take most baseball observers long to convince themselves that he would thrive on the mound. He's one of the most gifted athletes in MLB history.
So, when Betts—who has spent the bulk of his career playing right field—appeared likely to be the primary second baseman for the Dodgers in 2024, he shot to the top of most lists ranking the top players at that position, above Altuve and Semien.
Now that he's the "permanent, for now" shortstop for the Dodgers, you just have to believe he'll figure out a way to be an above-average defender at a position he had never played at the MLB level until a season ago.
And while he'll have competition from at least two of his teammates and some of the other shortstops who missed this list, Betts will have a great NL MVP narrative if he spends most of the year playing shortstop.
Twice since joining the Dodgers (2020, 2023), he has finished runner-up in the NL MVP race. He already has an AL MVP (2018) on his resume, and perhaps his willingness to move anywhere on the diamond will finally allow him to get over the hump and join Hall of Famer Frank Robinson as the only players to ever win an MVP in both leagues.
Honorable Mentions: Corey Seager, Francisco Lindor, Trea Turner
Third Base: José Ramírez, Cleveland Guardians
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Age in 2024: 31
2023 Stats: .282/.356/.475, 24 HR, 80 RBI, 73 BB, .831 OPS, 5.1 WAR
For so many years, it's felt like José Ramírez has been in second or third place. He's finished in the top three in AL MVP voting on three occasions, including a runner-up finish in 2020.
And for the better part of the last half decade, he's been second on lists ranking the top third baseman, behind future Hall of Famer Nolan Arenado.
While no one should bet against Arenado, his production dipped with a .774 OPS and one defensive run saved a year ago. That represents something of a decline, as he posted an .891 OPS and 19 defensive runs saved in 2022.
And so, Ramírez, who was an All-Star for the fifth time a season ago, finally gets his chance to claim the top spot among third basemen, slightly edging out Austin Riley of the Atlanta Braves.
With two or three more peak seasons, Ramírez is going to have a compelling Hall of Fame case. Consider this: The average WAR 7—top seven single-season WAR totals added up to get an idea of how good someone was at the height of their powers—of a Hall of Fame third basemen is 43.3. Ramírez's WAR 7 right now is 40.2, which shows you how excellent his career has been to this point.
Honorable Mentions: Austin Riley, Rafael Devers, Nolan Arenado
Left Field: Teoscar Hernández, Los Angeles Dodgers
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Age in 2024: 31
2023 Stats: .258/.305/.435, 26 HR, 93 RBI, 38 BB, .741 OPS, 1.8 WAR
Surprised? That's fair, but if you count Yordan Álvarez as a DH, the pickings are pretty slim here.
Brandon Nimmo of the New York Mets is an on-base machine who's developed more pop as his career has progressed and should post strong defensive metrics in his first season as a full-time left fielder. He would have been the safe pick here.
However, Teoscar Hernández is the selection because he'll probably put up gaudy run production numbers after signing a one-year, $23.5 million deal with a loaded Dodgers team.
Hernández had a relatively disappointing contract year with the Seattle Mariners in 2023, but his home/road splits suggest he'll benefit from a change of scenery.
In 79 home games at T-Mobile Park, which consistently ranks as one of the worst parks to hit at, he posted a .643 OPS in 2023. In 81 road games, he had an .830 OPS. The moral of the story? Seattle wasn't for him, and he needed to go elsewhere.
That the two-time Silver Slugger Award winner ended up with a team that might have one of the greatest offenses in MLB history is icing on the cake.
If Hernández hits fourth or fifth for the Dodgers this season, he'll be coming up with some combination of Betts, Shohei Ohtani and Freeman on in front of him. Don't be surprised if he finishes 2024 among the league-leaders in RBI.
Honorable Mentions: Brandon Nimmo, Chas McCormick, Nolan Jones
Center Field: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
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Age in 2024: 32
2023 Stats: .267/.406/.613, 37 HR, 75 RBI, 88 BB, 1.019 OPS, 5.3 WAR
It's going to be hard for Aaron Judge to ever top his 2022 AL MVP season because it was one of the greatest offensive campaigns in the history of the sport.
But when you consider he hit 37 home runs in 106 games a year ago, if he hadn't run through the wall at Dodger Stadium, he would have hit 50-plus home runs for the second year in a row, if not 60.
What it always comes down to with Judge is his ability to stay on the field. Three times in his career, he's played 148 or more games in a season. Over those three seasons, he's averaged 51 home runs a season. He is one of the most gifted sluggers the sport has seen.
Still, it's hard not to feel that playing your soon-to-be 32-year-old star who has an injury history and is in the second year of a nine-season deal in center field regularly is a bit perplexing for the Yankees. Judge can handle center field defensively, but it's a very taxing position on your body, and having his bat available should be priority No. 1.
The Yankees did acquire Trent Grisham along with Juan Soto, their new right fielder, this offseason. So, if the Yankees decide at some point to have Judge play a corner outfield position regularly—or want to get him semi-regular DH at-bats—they have another center fielder on the roster.
And as long as he's healthy, Judge's bat is going to play at any position.
Honorable Mentions: Julio Rodríguez, Mike Trout, Michael Harris II
Right Field: Ronald Acuña Jr., Atlanta Braves
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Age in 2024: 26
2023 Stats: .337/.416/.596, 41 HR, 106 RBI, 80 BB, 1.012 OPS, 8.3 WAR
If any of the three honorable mentions at this position—Juan Soto, Corbin Carroll and Kyle Tucker—was projected to play left field, they would have been the pick at that spot over Hernández. It was particularly difficult not to pick Soto, who's in a contract year, for this spot.
But Ronald Acuña Jr. is on the trajectory of being an inner-circle Hall of Famer and coming off of one of the finest offensive seasons in MLB history. He was a no-brainer pick here and likely would have been the selection at any position on this countdown, outside of the two pitcher spots.
There's a case to be made for Acuña easing up on the basepaths after stealing 73 bags in his NL MVP season a year ago. He provides so much other value offensively, that he would be wise to pick his spots in terms of stealing, as he and the Braves prepare for what they hope will be a lengthy playoff run.
At the same time, the electricity that Acuña plays the game with, which includes his ability to steal bases during the same night when he might hit 800 feet worth of home runs, is what makes him one of the greatest shows in the sport today.
Perhaps someone like Soto will age better, but outside of Ohtani, Acuña is the most must-watch player in baseball right now.
Honorable Mentions: Juan Soto, Corbin Carroll, Kyle Tucker
DH: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers
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Age in 2024: 29
2023 Stats (as a hitter): .304/.412/.654, 44 HR, 95 RBI, 91 BB, 1.066 OPS, 6.6 WAR
Shohei Ohtani won't pitch in 2024 as he recovers from his second Tommy John surgery. That will give the two-time AL MVP a chance to show just how special he is as a hitter alone in the first season of a 10-year, $700 million contract with the Dodgers.
Just as a hitter a season ago, Ohtani put up enough production to be the leading candidate for AL MVP. In what proved to be his final season with the Los Angeles Angels, he led the AL in home runs (44), on-base percentage (.412), slugging percentage (.654), OPS (1.066), OPS+ (184) and total bases (325). His ability to also pitch at a front-line level might make some fail to realize he's a Hall of Fame-caliber talent as a hitter alone.
It took him some time after his previous Tommy John surgery to regain his power at the plate, a trend that also showed itself with Harper last year. But there's been no indication this spring that Ohtani's recovery from the procedure, which he had in mid-September, is going to affect his offensive output in 2024.
Yordan Álvarez, who is a World Series hero with a .978 career OPS, deserves to be mentioned here. Unfortunately for him, Ohtani was the obvious pick as the top DH, especially when you consider the offensive numbers he put up a year ago came over just 135 games.
Honorable Mentions: Yordan Álvarez, Kyle Schwarber, Marcell Ozuna
Starting Pitcher: Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves
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Age in 2024: 25
2023 Stats: 20-5, 186.2 IP, 3.86 ERA, 2.85 FIP, 281 K's, 5.5 WAR
Spencer Strider's tendency to have a clunker once a month caused his ERA to spike to 3.86 and forced to him to settle for a fourth-place finish in NL Cy Young Award voting.
But there's a case to be made that he was the NL's most dominant pitcher a year ago, and he's unquestionably become the most electric arm in the sport today.
Even with a few outliers on his resume, Strider still led the NL in wins (20), strikeouts (281), strikeouts per nine (13.5) and FIP (2.85) in 2023. It's scary to think about what his numbers could look like if he has fewer blowups in 2024.
Strider was the pick here, but only after learning that reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Gerrit Cole—whose career is on a Hall of Fame trajectory—will miss at least the first month of the season with an elbow injury.
Tommy John surgery isn't currently recommended for Cole, but until he's back on the mound, that being the eventual outcome can't be ruled out.
Corbin Burnes — now a Baltimore Oriole — was probably next in line to be the pick here, especially when you consider he's in a contract year. Zack Wheeler and Kevin Gausman, two extremely talented arms who have become great pitchers in their 30s, also would be strong picks.
Honorable Mentions: Corbin Burnes, Zack Wheeler, Kevin Gausman
Relief Pitcher: Edwin Díaz, New York Mets
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Age in 2024: 30
2022 Stats (missed 2023 season): 3-1, 62 IP, 1.31 ERA, 0.90 FIP, 118 K's, 3.0 WAR
Edwin Díaz tore the patellar tendon in his right knee as he celebrated a win by Team Puerto Rico in last year's World Baseball Classic, eventually forcing him to miss the entirety of the 2023 season.
That cost him a chance to follow up what was one of the greatest seasons a relief pitcher has had. In case you need a reminder, Díaz posted a 297 ERA+ in 2022, a statistic where 100 is the league average. Frankly, he deserved to finish higher than ninth in NL Cy Young Award voting in 2022, but the five-year, $102 million deal he landed from the Mets probably allowed him to get over his snub.
Betting on someone who missed all of the previous season is a risk, but by Opening Day, Díaz will be more than a year removed from his injury. And if his first spring appearance was any indication, he is going to hit the ground running.
If you're a baseball fan with a pulse, you're going to get goosebumps the first time Timmy Trumpet blares over the speakers at Citi Field as Díaz trots in for a save attempt.
Honorable Mentions: Josh Hader, Jhoan Durán, David Bednar
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