NBA Free Agents Who Feel Like Biggest Flight Risks
Every offseason has the potential to reshape the NBA landscape, and the upcoming 2024 iteration should be viewed no differently.
If this summer does spawn big changes, though, don't look for them to happen in free agency.
While a ton of talented players could reach the open market, most of the marquee names seem likely to re-sign with their current clubs. Beyond that, there's a severe shortage of teams with both win-now intentions and significant cap space.
Still, there will be players who seek out greener pastures this offseason. The following five hoopers feel like the most significant flight risks on the board.
Grayson Allen, Phoenix Suns
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With unrestricted free agency awaiting him after this season, Phoenix Suns guard Grayson Allen might hear the sound of a cash register's ring each time one of his long-range looks finds its mark. If he does, though, his ears have been ringing since October.
The 28-year-old is doing what everyone hopes to do in a contract year: Upping his output both in terms of quantity and quality.
Allen's counting categories are littered with career highs (including his 13.1 points, 3.9 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 33.7 minutes per game), and his efficiency metrics are showing the same. His 50.4 field-goal percentage and league-leading 47.9 three-point shooting percentage are both personal bests, as are his 13.4 player efficiency rating, 1.0 box plus/minus and 0.128 win shares per 48 minutes.
Allen has made all of these stats matter, too. The Suns outscore opponents by 3.9 points per 100 possessions when he's on the floor compared to only 0.7 per 100 when he isn't.
While this could all be interpreted as reasons for Phoenix to bring him back, doing so could be more costly than even this big-spending squad can stomach. Any team with shooting concerns and financial flexibility should make Allen a priority target (if not the priority target).
Meanwhile, the Suns might have to pass on adding another big-money deal to their ledger.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Denver Nuggets
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Two players on the defending champion Denver Nuggets have net differentials north of plus-10 points per 100 possessions. One is superstar center Nikola Jokić, who should probably be clearing a space on his mantle for a third MVP trophy. The other is Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, an unheralded but vital part of this club's winning formula.
Caldwell-Pope is a tireless defender who routinely handles Denver's toughest defensive assignment on the perimeter, making it all the more impressive that his matchups—a who's who of offensive stars—shoot 2.9 percentage points worse against him than they do on average. Tack on his 90th percentile standing in Dunks and Threes' defensive estimated plus/minus, and he has a credible case for All-Defensive recognition.
Denver's defense improves by 4.5 points per 100 possessions with KCP on the floor, which is an 84th-percentile mark across the league. The opposition's turnover percentage climbs up 2.9 points, a 95th-percentile stat.
Caldwell-Pope much of a more play-finisher than a shot-creator on offense, but that's perfectly fine for a role player. Whether he's sprinting ahead in the open court, crashing off of a well-timed cut or taking aim from three-point range, he's always ready for his next opportunity, and he's finished enough of them to post the second-highest true shooting percentage of his career (58.8).
While the Nuggets surely hope he'll pick up his $15.4 million player option for next season, he can probably do better on the open market. Even if the 31-year-old doesn't dramatically improve his annual salary, he still might appreciate the security of a long-term deal.
Denver could try to give him that, but as it just saw with Bruce Brown and Jeff Green last summer, there isn't always enough money to pay everyone. And with $147.1 million already owed to Jokić, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. for next season, the Nuggets may not be able to stomach a new contract for Caldwell-Pope.
DeMar DeRozan, Chicago Bulls
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Some folks—perhaps including DeMar DeRozan himself—might scoff at this selection. He has expressed a desire to finish his career with the Chicago Bulls, and B/R's Eric Pincus reported that the expectation "across the league" is that he will stay put.
So, why bother putting the master of the mid-range on this list? Because while the Bulls may never admit to this, it's obvious their roster is overdue for a refresh.
Since losing Lonzo Ball to a knee injury on Jan. 14, 2022, Chicago has gone 93-100. The Bulls might want to believe that their current core is capable of more, but it's hard to ignore a two-season-plus sample.
DeRozan, who will turn 35 in August, should want his offensive brilliance to impact more than the play-in tournament chase. He's one of the few free agents who could realistically switch teams and qualify as a full-fledged difference-maker. There's almost no one in the NBA whom you'd rather have handle late-game possessions, as his 161 clutch points (second-most in the league) look even better when paired with his 52.2/50/87.1 clutch shooting slash.
Moreover, the Bulls should have greater ambitions than snagging a play-in spot and hopefully making a brief playoff cameo in the opening round. They need to greatly expand their talent base to make that happen, though, which takes time.
Make long-term goals the focus of this franchise, and it's hard to imagine they'd align with the idea of paying a premium to keep a 34-year-old offensive specialist in place.
DeRozan and Chicago can keep professing how much they want to remain together—and they may actually share that sentiment—but we'll continue doubting that it would be the best outcome for either party.
Tobias Harris, Philadelphia 76ers
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There is a universe in which Tobias Harris helped the Philadelphia 76ers withstand the loss of Joel Embiid to a meniscus injury and kept them afloat while finally endearing himself to a fanbase that was skeptical from the start of the five-year, $180 million pact he signed in 2019.
However, we don't live in that reality.
In our universe, both Harris and the Sixers have flat-lined without the big fella. Harris has suited up 17 times since Embiid's injury—11 of which were Philadelphia losses—and averaged a forgettable 15.7 points with an uninspiring 44.9 field-goal percentage and a brutal 29.7 percent connection rate from three-point land.
When asked if Harris' struggles—most recently lowlighted by scoring only two points on 1-of-6 shooting in a 27-point loss to the New York Knicks on Tuesday—have him considering moving the slumping scorer to the bench, Sixers head coach Nick Nurse offered a simple "nope" before adding an ominous "not yet."
Harris may have fallen too far for Philadelphia to even consider bringing him back. Sure, he should cost considerably less this time around, but even on a discounted deal, he might be a tough sell to this fanbase.
"What I do think [76ers president of basketball operations] Daryl [Morey] cares about is not overpaying for role players, keeping the powder dry for difference-makers, and I think he cares about three-point bombers who make quick decisions," PHLY Sports' Derek Bodner said. "And Tobias Harris is none of that."
Despite the disappointment in Philly, Harris should have suitors elsewhere. Prior to this season, the 6'8" swingman was on a six-year run of averaging 18.3 points on 48.4/38.9/85.1 shooting. He has some strong selling points on offense and isn't a traffic cone on defense.
He should draw interest...just not from his current club.
Tyus Jones, Washington Wizards
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In one of the true stunners of trade season, the Washington Wizards opted not to flip impending free-agent point guard Tyus Jones for longer-term assets. They might regret that decision for a long time to come.
It was clear then that this team was headed nowhere, and it's actually managed to sink even further since. The Wizards have a league-worst .125 winning percentage since the trade deadline, which is a wholly anemic 10-win pace.
These losses aren't on Jones, of course, but he isn't the kind of player who can prop up a less-than-loaded roster. His high-efficiency, low-mistake game is meant to maximize the talent around him, and there just isn't much to be found in the District.
As awful as this season has been for the Wizards as a whole, Jones has at least managed to engineer his own breakout amid this dumpster fire. His 12.0 points, 7.3 assists and 29.3 minutes per game are all personal bests, as are his 48.9 field-goal percentage and 41.4 three-point percentage. He's even managed to improve his signature skill of ball control, as he's averaging only 1.0 giveaways per game.
Any team in need of a floor general should take a long look at Jones, except perhaps for the Wizards, who need the kind of help that this solid-but-unspectacular 27-year-old can provide. Those same teams presumably would've been willing to give up assets to get him a month ago, but Washington never bothered to answer opportunity's knock.
Statistics courtesy of Basketball Reference, Cleaning the Glass, Dunks & Threes and NBA.com and current through games played on Wednesday. Salary information via Spotrac.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on X, @ZachBuckleyNBA.
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