Early Predictions for NBA's Biggest Buyers This Summer
Will this summer offer another game of musical chairs for NBA free agent superstars?
The best guess? Probably not.
The market usually dictates how much NBA players earn in free agency. If teams don't have money to spend, most players won't have the leverage they need to get the contracts they seek.
The NBA's new collective bargaining agreement punishes high-spending franchises beyond just a luxury-tax penalty. The tax is enough of a deterrent for some teams, but for those with deeper pockets, the first apron (projected at $178.7 million in 2024-25) and second apron ($189.5 million) are the problem.
The higher teams go up the spending ladder, the fewer tools they have to spend (as recently detailed here). And while Bird rights still have power, some franchises may decide the ramifications of crossing either apron are too severe.
So which teams are lurking with significant cap space to chase the biggest names on the B/R free-agency big board? Let's go through them here.
Clippers Re-Signing Stars?
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Team: LA Clippers
Projected cap space: None!
Before digging into the potential free-agent poachers, the Clippers are among the upper-tier spenders. So, why would one of the highest payrolls in the league be on this list?
The Clippers will be limited by the second apron, but that won't stop them from re-signing their own free agents. Paul George, who's No. 3 on our free-agent big board, may flirt with other teams (perhaps the Philadelphia 76ers?), but the buzz in league circles has him returning to Los Angeles.
The same can be said of James Harden (No. 6 on our free-agent big board), who has fit exceptionally well beside George and Kawhi Leonard.
The Clippers may have to pivot away from their heavy payroll at some point in the future. But with a new stadium opening this fall in Inglewood, now is not the time to start cutting costs.
The expected theme across the league is players re-signing, including Pascal Siakam (No. 4 on our free-agent big board) and the Indiana Pacers, Jrue Holiday (No. 5) and the Boston Celtics, OG Anunoby (No. 7) and the New York Knicks and DeMar DeRozan (No. 15) and the Chicago Bulls.
Raptors Keep Quickley, Chase KCP?
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Team: Toronto Raptors
Projected cap space: Up to $24 million (including Immanuel Quickley's cap hold)
The Raptors undoubtedly hope to re-sign Quickley (No. 8 on our free-agent big board), who has averaged 17.4 points and 6.1 assists in 27 games since his trade from the New York Knicks. He's also shooting a career-high 42.1 percent from deep in Toronto.
The buzz before the season had Quickley seeking a starting salary of $25 million, which may be around what he gets in Toronto. Fortunately for the Raptors, Quickley's cap hold as a restricted free agent will be $12.5 million. That means the franchise will have about $24 million to spend first on other free agents.
That figure assumes Toronto declines Bruce Brown Jr.'s $23 million team option for 2024-25, which seems likely unless it can find a trade for him first. If so, the Raptors may choose not to go under the cap at all.
But if the Raptors do go shopping, they could chase Grayson Allen (No. 9) or Malik Monk (No. 12). Otherwise, a big enough offer to No. 17 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (perhaps north of an $18 million starting salary) may be too rich for the Denver Nuggets.
On a short-term deal, Caldwell-Pope would fit in quite well as a wing defender and shooter alongside Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett and Quickley despite his age (31).
Spurs Get the Point?
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Team: San Antonio Spurs
Projected cap space: Up to $25.5 million
It's clear what the Spurs are missing this season. While Tre Jones, Malaki Branham and even forward Jeremy Sochan have served as ball-handlers for Victor Wembanyama and company, the team needs an upgrade at point guard.
The Spurs, who are projected to be armed with about $25.5 million in cap space, likely won't be able to lure away a restricted free agent like Tyrese Maxey (No. 2 on our free-agent big board) or Quickley. But Tyus Jones (No. 19). stands out as an obvious target.
Jones, who turns 28 in May, is one of the league's better classic point guards. He's currently on the rebuilding Washington Wizards, who may be reluctant to reinvest in him this summer. Jones is averaging a career-high 12.2 points and 7.2 assists per game and is shooting a career-high 42.5 percent from three-point range.
While Jones will receive interest from contenders and could be a sign-and-trade candidate, an offer from the Spurs in the $20 million-per-year range should get it done.
Thunder Need Size
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Team: Oklahoma City Thunder
Projected cap space: Up to $27 million
Chet Holmgren may not win the Rookie of the Year award, but finishing second to Victor Wembanyama is an impressive showing. As fans beg the Thunder to go all-in via trades and/or free agency, the front office has quietly built one of the top teams in the Western Conference.
The group's playoff showing will dictate its future, but the most significant weakness appears to be size up front. The Thunder may not look for a starter in free agency, but Isaiah Hartenstein (No. 20 on our free-agent big board) may be the perfect addition.
Injuries have given Hartenstein a chance to start 30 games for the Knicks this season. He rebounds well, blocks shots, is shooting 60.4 percent from the field and doesn't turn 26 until May. He's a legit 7-footer who could play behind Holmgren off the bench or alongside him in the rotation.
Hartenstein is earning $9.2 million. The Thunder could have up to $27 million in cap space, but a $15 million starting salary should be plenty to snatch Hartenstein away from the Knicks.
Hornets a Wild Card
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Team: Charlotte Hornets
Projected cap space: Up to $36 million
The Hornets recently hired Jeff Peterson as their new executive vice president of basketball operations. Formerly with the Brooklyn Nets, Peterson inherits an underperforming 15-47 squad with two clear keepers in LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller.
Other young players like Mark Williams and Tre Mann also have potential, but it's too early to know which direction Peterson will take. New leadership will often break the roster down further before rebuilding it, which is why the Hornets might not use their $36 million in cap space on a top-25 free agent.
The obvious exception is Miles Bridges, whose No. 21 ranking on our free-agent big board was less about talent and more about his off-court legal history, including a no-contest plea in 2022 to a felony domestic violence charge. Bridges will likely seek more than $20 million annually, but that might require another team to help drive the market.
If Peterson doesn't splurge on Bridges, he could use Charlotte's cap room to acquire players and draft assets via trade and focus on building a long-term vision.
Jazz Patient, Reward Markkanen
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Team: Utah Jazz
Projected cap space: Up to $40 million
The Jazz are competitive and entertaining, but they aren't good enough in the West to make the play-in tournament. Some of that may be by design as the front office tries to reload after the Donovan Mitchell/Rudy Gobert era.
The early successes include Lauri Markkanen, Walker Kessler and rookie Keyonte George. Collin Sexton has also impressed in his second season with the Jazz.
However, the franchise has a lot of work to do to climb in the standings. The Jazz could address that with up to $40 million in cap space this summer.
Utah renegotiated-and-extended Jordan Clarkson's contract with cap room this past summer, and Markkanen figures to get similar treatment this offseason. He's set to earn $18 million in 2024-25, which is well below the $42.3 million projected max for players with 7-9 years of NBA service. The Jazz could bump his salary up immediately, perhaps to around $32 million, followed by a max extension.
If so, that would leave them with about $26 million to spend in free agency. But Utah is more likely to use the rest of that space in trades for players and draft compensation.
Sixers the 'Best' Team with Money
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Team: Philadelphia 76ers
Projected cap space: Up to $56 million
Joel Embiid's knee injury has made it difficult for the 76ers to properly evaluate their roster after the trade deadline. But lock in Tyrese Maxey to return, probably starting at near or at a max salary (approximately $35.3 million).
The Sixers will wait to sign him, with his low $13 million cap hold, until they exhaust their up to $56 million in cap space.
What if the Sixers used their first- or second-round pick in June to draft Bronny James? Should his father, LeBron James (No. 1 on our free-agent big board), opt out of his contract with the Los Angeles Lakers, Philadelphia could have just enough to max him out at around $50 million.
That would give the Sixers another $7 million in space, plus the room mid-level exception of about $8 million to flesh out a roster with Paul Reed, Embiid, Maxey and the James father-and-son pairing.
Philadelphia could also just decide to reinvest in what may be a winning formula under head coach Nick Nurse with a healthy Embiid, re-signing Tobias Harris (No. 11), Buddy Hield (No. 13) and De'Anthony Melton (No. 23).
With their flexibility, the Sixers have a wide range of options and could be a suitor for Klay Thompson (No. 14), Paul George, Jrue Holiday, Malik Monk, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Grayson Allen or Miles Bridges.
Pistons Need to Cast a Wide Net
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Team: Detroit Pistons
Projected cap space: Up to $60-million
Competing executives suggest the Pistons must make a splash in free agency after a disappointing season. The front office had playoff hopes this season, but the team is at the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings.
Changes may come via trade, but the keepers appear to be Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, Ausar Thompson and Jalen Duren. The team also acquired forward Simone Fontecchio ahead of the trade deadline, presumably with the intention of re-signing him. Isaiah Stewart extended before the season, and Marcus Sasser was a solid get in the draft via trade.
So, what's next for the Pistons, who have about $60 million in cap space to spend? They need to cast a wide net with a friendly checkbook.
There's no obvious favorite, but the possibilities include above-market offers to Tobias Harris, Klay Thompson, Grayson Allen, Miles Bridges, Malik Monk, De'Anthony Melton, Buddy Hield, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and/or Gary Trent Jr. (No. 22 on our free-agent big board). The other path is using cap room to take on players via trade, although Detroit didn't get much out of that last year with Joe Harris and Monte Morris.
Although the Pistons currently might not be a free-agent destination, having one of the largest bankrolls this summer could prove attractive for players who get squeezed out of their preferred payday.
Magic May Set the Market
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Team: Orlando Magic
Projected cap space: Up to $66 million
The Magic took a significant step forward this season, going from 34 wins last season to 36 and counting this year. The team can supplement its core this offseason with a league-best $66 million in cap space.
However, Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs will become eligible to sign extensions this offseason, followed by Paolo Banchero next summer. The franchise has to keep that in mind, even though the bills won't come due for another year or two.
The Magic may look at what the Indiana Pacers did with Bruce Brown Jr. last summer. They gave him a short-term, balloon contract that they later used for salary-matching purposes to acquire Pascal Siakam.
To get to that full $66 million of cap room, Orlando would need to waive Jonathan Issac ($17.4 million non-guaranteed for 2024-25), two players with team options (Joe Ingles at $11 million and Mo Wagner at $8 million) and renounce free agents Markelle Fultz, Gary Harris and Chuma Okeke (restricted).
The franchise has been linked to several players, most notably Klay Thompson if the Warriors won't pay him what he seeks. Another top target could be Grayson Allen, with the Magic potentially outspending what the Phoenix Suns are willing to do with their already massive payroll.
Orlando could chase Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Buddy Hield, Tyus Jones or even Jrue Holiday if he and the Celtics aren't on the same page, although all signs point to Boston keeping the veteran point guard.
Who Is Left Out?
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The Brooklyn Nets would probably welcome Nicolas Claxton (No. 16 on our free-agent big board) back at the right price. He's one of the many names who didn't get matched up with a team with cap space. Similarly, Jonas Valančiūnas (No. 10) may be best served returning to the New Orleans Pelicans.
If the few teams with cap room don't need a starting center, re-signing with their respective teams may be their only viable choice above the non-taxpayer mid-level exception (about $12.9 million).
That may cause many players to return to their squads or bypass free agency entirely either by extension or option. That could include Los Angeles Lakers guard D'Angelo Russell, who might decide to pick up his $18.7 million player option for next season.
Finally, the teams that choose to use their cap room via trade (potentially Utah, Charlotte, etc.) may open up the books for unexpected teams. That's what the Knicks did two years ago to sign Jalen Brunson even though they weren't on the cap-room watch list at the time.
Email Eric Pincus at eric.pincus@gmail.com and follow him on X/Twitter @EricPincus.
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