How Russell Wilson's Release Impacts Kirk Cousins, 2024 NFL Free Agency QB Carousel
The NFL offseason is typically full of surprises. However, Monday's news that the Denver Broncos are moving on from Russell Wilson was something everyone knew was coming since December, when the team benched Wilson.
That being said, what makes this situation somewhat unique is the Broncos gave the nine-time Pro Bowler a massive five-year, $245 million contract extension after trading for him during the 2022 offseason. According to Pro Football Talk, that means Denver will be on the hook for a $35.4 million cap hit in 2024 and $49.6 million in 2025.
Granted, the Broncos will get a dollar-for-dollar credit for whatever amount he signs for with his next team. So, in theory, Wilson could agree to a short-term, low-cost deal this offseason since he'll continue to get the money he was guaranteed by Denver. Also, the only way he makes more money is if he signs a bigger contract, which is highly unlikely.
With how big quarterback contracts are these days, that could make Mr. Unlimited very attractive to clubs looking for a new signal-caller, impacting the other passers who are available this spring.
Here, we'll dive into how Wilson's release impacts the quarterbacks who are within the top 100 of Pro Football Focus' free-agent rankings, as well as Justin Fields, since he is considered available via trade.
Kirk Cousins
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According to ESPN's Dan Graziano, there seems to be mutual interest between the Minnesota Vikings and Kirk Cousins running it back for at least one more season. However, the two sides are hung up on contract negotiations.
"The sense I'm getting is Minnesota still wants Cousins to return, but Cousins has a very specific idea in mind for what he wants in a new contract and the Vikings so far have not made an offer that matches it," Graziano reported. "The ball might be in the team's court at this point. Cousins and his family like Minnesota and would be happy to stay and finish his career there, but it doesn't sound like he's willing to offer the team a hometown discount."
While the Vikings have about $37.3 million in cap space available, per Over The Cap, Pro Football Focus is predicting that the 35-year-old will receive a two-year deal at $40 million per season. Also, Minnesota has several key impending free agents on the other side of the ball, headlined by Danielle Hunter, Jonathan Bullard and D.J. Wonnum.
So, the idea of bringing in Wilson at a much cheaper price tag and still having cap space to sign the defenders mentioned above could be very intriguing for general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah. That way the team still has a veteran quarterback who can keep them competitive in the NFC North without having to pinch pennies on defense.
In that scenario, Cousins hits the open market as an older player who is coming off a torn Achilles tendon. That combination could lead to a smaller contract than he's expecting, especially with an organization that he doesn't have a history with.
Justin Fields
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The Chicago Bears are widely expected to trade Justin Fields and draft USC's Caleb Williams with the No. 1 overall pick. However, Williams' decision not to participate in the medical exams at last week's NFL Scouting Combine and only share his medical information with the teams he meets with could throw a wrench into things.
According to Sports Illustrated's Albert Breer, Chicago wants to "check some final boxes before finalizing its plan at quarterback" and the team's brass won't meet with the 2022 Heisman Trophy winner until after his pro day on March 20.
The final boxes likely include Williams' medical information to ensure that he doesn't have any surprise injuries or long-term health concerns. That's a smart decision by the Bears so that they don't move one quarterback and then find out the other one they want has a medical condition. However, that could also take potential suitors for Fields off the table.
Free agency starts next week and a team that's interested in trading for the Bears quarterback could also be keen on the idea of bringing in Russell Wilson. So, if Chicago isn't willing to trade Fields before the market opens, the interested club could opt to sign Wilson instead, eliminating a potential destination for the three-year veteran.
Plus, Wilson could be less expensive and the organization that acquires him wouldn't have to give up draft capital to do so.
The Atlanta Falcons would be a team to keep an eye on since head coach Raheem Morris was fairly direct at the combine in saying they're in the quarterback market this offseason. Atlanta has been rumored to be in the Fields sweepstakes, but the idea of bringing in a more experienced signal caller who has a better track record could be intriguing.
Baker Mayfield
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After the Tampa Bay Buccaneers re-signed wide receiver Mike Evans to a two-year, $52 million contract on Monday, the expectation is that Baker Mayfield will be the next in line to get paid. But, to quote Lee Corso, "Not so fast, my friend!"
The Athletic's Dianna Russini reported that the Buccaneers have started negotiations with Mayfield's camp, but Russini's sources have said that the quarterback won't take a "hometown discount" to stay in Tampa. Per Pro Football Focus, his projected contract is three years, $97.5 million, or $32.5 million per season.
According to Over the Cap, Tampa will begin the offseason with about $37.6 million of cap space, and that's without Evans' new contract on the books. So, the Bucs would be stretched pretty thin if Mayfield's deal reached the figure above, and that's a lot of money to give to someone who is only a year removed from a disastrous campaign.
Instead, general manager Jason Licht could be interested in the idea of signing Russell Wilson to a much cheaper contract. That could keep the Bucs competitive in the weak NFC South and give them more flexibility to target other free agents this spring or re-sign key defenders like linebacker Lavonte David and safety Antoine Winfield Jr.
If Wilson does head to Tampa, Russini indicated that the Atlanta Falcons or Minnesota Vikings would be interested in bringing in Mayfield.
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Ryan Tannehill
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Unlike with Kirk Cousins and Baker Mayfield, Ryan Tannehill's previous team isn't expected to be interested in bringing him back. The Tennessee Titans have a young starting quarterback in Will Levis, who is likely a big reason new head coach Brian Callahan took the job.
So, Tannehill is widely expected to be on the move this offseason, and ESPN's Adam Schefter indicated on the Pat McAfee Show that the Pittsburgh Steelers will be interested in him. However, that's not the only passer Schefter linked to the Steel City.
"I do think they'll add a quarterback," the NFL insider said. "I'm not giving you a specific answer because right now, I don't think they have a specific answer. ... I don't expect Kirk Cousins to wind up in Pittsburgh, but I do think a guy like Russell Wilson, or Justin Fields or Tannehill could be in play and we'll see."
Wilson would also be a good fit with the Steelers. New offensive coordinator Arthur Smith likes to lean on the running game and a lot of play-action passes to push the ball down the field. That's the type of offense the former Seahawks quarterback was successful in during his time in Seattle.
Granted, Tannehill does have familiarity with Smith from their time together in Tennessee, and the former Titan is only projected to receive a two-year, $11 million contract, according to Pro Football Focus. So, there isn't a dramatic price difference, if any, between the two quarterbacks.
However, Wilson and Tannehill have similar skill sets and are at similar stages in their careers, meaning teams could negotiate with both players to get more leverage, which would drive their price tags down.
Gardner Minshew
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It's difficult to determine what Gardner Minshew's next step will be. That's partially because he falls into the fringe starter category, meaning he could be the QB1 for a few teams and a backup for others.
For example, Minshew has been linked to the New York Jets to serve as the second option in New York in case Aaron Rodgers gets injured again, and the New England Patriots reportedly have the 27-year-old on their radar.
While the Jets would likely be interested in bringing on Russell Wilson to serve as Rodgers' backup after finding out the hard way how important a second-string quarterback is, it's hard to imagine there would be mutual interest. Wilson is likely looking for an opportunity to bounce back and prove himself as a starter.
However, the Patriots could be very intrigued by the idea of bringing in a veteran stop-gap quarterback. Signing the 35-year-old wouldn't take drafting a signal-caller with the No. 3 overall pick off the table and then they'd have a mentor in place for the rookie. Plus, the team wouldn't have to rush an inexperienced passer onto the field.
So, if Wilson is interested in the idea of signing a one-year deal to recoup some value in New England, that could remove maybe the only option Minshew has at signing in a place where he'd begin training camp as the team's starter.
Where Will Wilson Land?
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Prediction: Minnesota Vikings
According to Pro Football Talk's Mike Florio, the idea of Kirk Cousins heading to the Atlanta Falcons is gaining some steam.
"We can't get into the specifics, for now. But we're getting very credible indications that Cousins is seriously considering moving his family to Atlanta," Florio reported. "Which would mean, obviously, that he'd be signing with the Falcons. The Falcons have always been the top alternative to the Vikings for Cousins, who becomes an unrestricted free agent next Wednesday. And for good reason. His wife, Julie, grew up in nearby Alpharetta, Georgia. Her parents still live there."
If Cousins does end up moving to the NFC South, it'd make a lot of sense for Russell Wilson to sign with the Minnesota Vikings.
As mentioned, the Vikings would be able to re-sign their key defensive free agents to stay competitive in the NFC North. They were a playoff contender last season until mid-November, when starting a backup quarterback every week finally caught up to them.
So, there's no reason to believe Minnesota can't make a postseason push with Wilson under center in 2024.
Also, the Vikings could still target a quarterback in the draft, such as Michigan's J.J. McCarthy. According to B/R's Scouting Department, McCarthy needs to improve as a processor and will take time to develop. In other words, a situation where he sits behind and learns from a nine-time Pro Bowler might be best for the former Wolverine.
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