Every MLB Team's Biggest Bounce-Back Candidate in 2024
A high-profile free-agent signing or splashy blockbuster trade is what grabs headlines during the offseason, but often it is improvement from a team's in-house players or a newcomer coming off a down year that can make the biggest difference heading into a new season.
Every team has at least one player who looks like a prime candidate for a bounce-back season, whether it's someone returning from injury or an established veteran coming off an uncharacteristic performance.
Ahead we've highlighted each team's biggest potential source of improvement based on their performance a year ago and expectations for the 2024 season.
Who has a chance to move the needle for your favorite team simply by improving on their 2023 performance?
Arizona Diamondbacks: OF Jake McCarthy
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Jake McCarthy looked like a potential long-term piece of the puzzle for the Arizona Diamondbacks after he posted a 117 OPS+ with 27 extra-base hits and 23 steals in 99 games while finishing fourth in 2022 NL Rookie of the Year voting.
However, he hit just .143/.229/.238 over his first 70 plate appearances last season before he was demoted to the minors, and with Corbin Carroll, Alek Thomas and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. seeing the bulk of the action in the outfield, he never reclaimed a regular role.
Still only 26 years old, McCarthy hit .360/.416/.594 in 221 plate appearances back at Triple-A, and while the additions of Randal Grichuk and Joc Pederson leave him with an uphill battle to claim a roster spot, he still has the potential to carve out a role.
Atlanta Braves: LHP Tyler Matzek
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Left-hander Tyler Matzek was an integral part of the Atlanta Braves bullpen during their 2021 World Series run. He posted a 2.57 ERA and 11.0 K/9 with 24 holds in 69 appearances during the regular season, and then allowed just three earned runs with 24 strikeouts in 15.2 innings over 13 appearances in the playoffs.
He missed significant time during the 2022 season with shoulder inflammation before eventually undergoing Tommy John surgery in October, and he spent all of last year on the sidelines recovering.
The 33-year-old is healthy again and vying for a key role in the 2024 bullpen, where he will join A.J. Minter and newcomer Aaron Bummer as the primary southpaw options.
Baltimore Orioles: RHP Dillon Tate
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Once upon a time, Dillon Tate was the No. 4 overall pick in the 2015 draft by the Texas Rangers, and while he didn't develop into a front-line starter, he found a home in the Baltimore Orioles bullpen.
After a solid 2021 campaign, he turned in a true breakout performance in 2022, posting a 3.05 ERA and 0.99 WHIP with five saves and 16 holds in 67 appearances.
The 29-year-old was chosen to pitch for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic last spring, but a flexor tendon strain kept him from participating and ultimately kept him from appearing in an MLB game all of last year.
With Félix Bautista sidelined for the year because of Tommy John surgery, Tate's return could be a huge boost for the Baltimore relief corps.
Boston Red Sox: OF Tyler O'Neill
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It was just a few short years ago that Tyler O'Neill was legitimately one of the best outfielders in baseball when he posted a 148 OPS+ with 34 home runs in a 6.1-WAR season while winning his second straight Gold Glove and finishing eighth in NL MVP balloting.
Injuries have limited him to a combined 168 games in the two years since that elite-level performance, and he has logged a 97 OPS+ and 1.6 WAR when he has managed to take the field during that time.
The St. Louis Cardinals sold low and traded him to the Boston Red Sox in December to unclog an outfield logjam, and the 28-year-old could thrive with a change of scenery and a clean bill of health.
Chicago Cubs: RHP Jameson Taillon
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After battling injuries throughout the early stages of his career, Jameson Taillon made 61 starts for the New York Yankees during the 2021 and 2022 seasons, and he parlayed that into a four-year, $68 million deal from the Chicago Cubs last offseason.
He posted a 4.84 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 154.1 innings in his first season with the Cubs, but those numbers were inflated by a poor first half:
- 1st Half: 15 GS, 6.15 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, .275 BAA, 2.86 K/BB
- 2nd Half: 14 GS, 3.70 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, .244 BAA, 4.05 K/BB
A full season of the production he showed after the All-Star break would give the North Siders rotation a major boost.
Chicago White Sox: 3B Yoán Moncada
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Yoán Moncada earned a five-year, $70 million extension on the heels of a 5.2-WAR season in 2019, but he has failed to match that level of production in the years since.
The 28-year-old had a 4.0-WAR campaign in 2021, but over the past two seasons he has hit .234/.288/.386 for an 86 OPS+ with 1.5 WAR in 196 games, and he earned $31.6 million during that two-year stretch.
He is healthy once again and eyeing a big season in the final guaranteed year of his contract, and the White Sox will give him every opportunity to earn his $24.8 million salary. He has a $25 million club option and $5 million buyout in 2025.
Cincinnati Reds: RHP Frankie Montas
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Every year there are a few players who stand out as terrific buy-low, bounce-back candidates in free agency, and Frankie Montas was at the top of that list heading into the 2023-24 offseason.
After finishing sixth in AL Cy Young voting in 2021 and posting a 3.18 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 104.2 innings over 19 starts to begin the 2022 season, he was traded to the New York Yankees at the 2022 deadline.
Injuries derailed his time in pinstripes and he ended up pitching just 41 total innings for the Yankees, including a single 1.1-inning relief appearance last year after missing the bulk of the season recovering from shoulder surgery.
The 30-year-old signed a one-year, $16 million deal with the Cincinnati Reds in an effort to rebuild his stock, and he looks like the X-factor in a young rotation.
Cleveland Guardians: OF Ramón Laureano
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The Cleveland Guardians acquired Ramon Laureano for nothing more than a waiver claim last August and then agreed to a $5.15 million salary for the 2024 season ahead of his final year of arbitration.
The 29-year-old posted a 103 OPS+ with 12 extra-base hits and 0.7 WAR in 41 games after joining the Guardians last year, and now he is poised to break camp as the team's starting right fielder in 2024.
Laureano averaged 4.2 WAR per 162 games during his time in Oakland, showing a valuable mix of power, speed and outfield defense, and he could be a key contributor for the Cleveland offense with a healthy season.
Colorado Rockies: 1B Kris Bryant
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Have we seen the last of Kris Bryant as an impact player?
The Colorado Rockies sure hope not with five years and $136 million remaining on his contract, but during his first two years with the team, he has been a complete non-factor, playing in just 122 games and posting a 93 OPS+ and minus-0.6 WAR.
The third baseman-turned-outfielder will now shift to first base in an effort to stay healthy, and while he may never return to the form that made him 2015 NL Rookie of the Year, 2016 NL MVP and a four-time All-Star, he is still only 32 years old and capable of launching balls out of Coors Field if he can stay healthy.
Detroit Tigers: RHP Casey Mize
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With a mid-90s fastball, devastating splitter and a polished overall game, Casey Mize went No. 1 overall in the 2018 draft and quickly rose the ranks in the Detroit Tigers farm system.
The 26-year-old had a 3.71 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 118 strikeouts in 150.1 innings over 30 starts in 2021, but he made just two starts the following year before undergoing Tommy John surgery, and he spent all of last year on the sidelines recovering.
His return to the mound this spring is off to a promising start:
With Tarik Skubal, Matt Manning and newcomers Kenta Maeda and Jack Flaherty occupying the first four spots in the Detroit rotation, Mize is the wild card in the team's pitching outlook.
Houston Astros: 1B José Abreu
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The Houston Astros signed José Abreu to a three-year, $58.5 million deal last offseason, and the longtime Chicago White Sox star promptly turned in the worst season of his career.
The 37-year-old hit .237/.296/.383 for a career-low 87 OPS+ in a 0.0 WAR season over 141 games, and while he did tally 23 doubles, 18 home runs and 90 RBI serving in a key run production role, he was not the same impact slugger.
On a positive note, he did post a .917 OPS with four home runs and 13 RBI in 11 games during the postseason, and that could be a jumping off point for a better offensive season in 2024.
Kansas City Royals: 1B Vinnie Pasquantino
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Vinnie Pasquantino posted a 135 OPS+ with 10 doubles, 10 home runs and 26 RBI while tallying more walks (35) than strikeouts (34) and logging a .383 on-base percentage in 298 plate appearances as a rookie in 2022.
That made him a popular breakout pick heading into the 2023 season, and while he started strong with a 108 OPS+ and 26 extra-base hits in 61 games to open the year, his season came to an abrupt halt in June when he suffered a torn labrum in his right shoulder that required season-ending surgery.
Healthy once again, the 26-year-old will be counted on to serve as a key run producer alongside Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Pérez and newcomer Hunter Renfroe in the middle of the Royals lineup in 2024.
Los Angeles Angels: OF Taylor Ward
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At this point, it's impossible to expect Mike Trout or Anthony Rendon to stay healthy for an entire season, so we're going a different route with our bounce-back pick for the Los Angeles Angels.
With a return to the breakout form he showed in 2022, Taylor Ward could help replace some of the production that departed when Shohei Ohtani walked in free agency.
- 2022: 135 G, 134 OPS+, .281/.360/.473, 57 XBH (23 HR), 65 RBI, 3.7 WAR
- 2023: 97 G, 105 OPS+, .253/.335/.421, 32 XBH (14 HR), 47 RBI, 1.7 WAR
His average exit velocity (74th percentile) and hard-hit rate (65th percentile) were both in line with the marks he posted during the 2022 season, which helps provide some optimism that a bounce-back season could be coming.
Los Angeles Dodgers: RHP Walker Buehler
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Shortstop Gavin Lux is an obvious bounce-back candidate for the Los Angeles Dodgers after he missed the entire 2023 season recovering from a torn ACL he suffered during spring training, but right-hander Walker Buehler could make a far bigger impact.
The 29-year-old is working his way back from a second Tommy John surgery, and while he is expected to start the year on the injured list, that is largely by design as a means of limiting his innings to keep him fresh for a potential playoff run.
Buehler was one of baseball's best young starters prior to the injury, and the stakes are high for his return with free agency looming next offseason and a huge potential payday on the horizon.
Miami Marlins: SS Tim Anderson
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Tim Anderson was quite literally the least productive hitter in baseball last season, batting .245/.286/.296 for a 60 OPS+ that ranked dead last among the 134 hitters who tallied enough at-bats to qualify for the batting title.
The Chicago White Sox ended his eight-year run with the team when they declined his club option, and he landed with the Miami Marlins on a one-year, $5 million deal as he looks to prove last year was a fluke.
The 30-year-old hit .318/.347/.474 for a 122 OPS+ over 1,641 plate appearances in the four seasons prior to his 2023 dud, so he has as much bounce-back potential as anyone in baseball.
Milwaukee Brewers: OF Garrett Mitchell
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The No. 20 overall pick in the 2020 draft, Garrett Mitchell made his MLB debut two years later and hit .311/.373/.459 for a 134 OPS+ with three doubles, two home runs, nine RBI and eight steals in 68 plate appearances.
Expected to be the Milwaukee Brewers' everyday center fielder in 2023, he played just 19 games while missing the bulk of the season recovering from shoulder surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder.
The 25-year-old has racked up 1.6 WAR over 47 games in his brief MLB action, and while much of the early attention will be on top prospect Jackson Chourio making his big league debut, Mitchell could be the more impactful young outfielder in 2024.
Minnesota Twins: RHP Chris Paddack
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Shortstop Carlos Correa and center fielder Byron Buxton are both potential bounce-back candidates for the Minnesota Twins, and if they both play up to their peak potential, it will give the offense and defense a major boost.
However, the biggest X-factor on the roster among bounce-back candidates is right-hander Chris Paddack, who will be tasked with holding down a spot in the starting rotation after Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Tyler Mahle all departed in free agency.
Paddack, 28, has made just seven appearances and tossed 27.1 innings with the Twins since he was acquired from the San Diego Padres. However, he threw 3.2 scoreless innings of one-hit ball in the playoffs last year, and he has the upside to be an impact starter if he returns to his pre-injury form.
New York Mets: RHP Luis Severino
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Luis Severino was a front-line starter at his best with the New York Yankees, but he struggled to a 6.65 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in 89.1 innings last season in a contract year.
The New York Mets inked him to a one-year, $13 million deal at the start of the offseason, and he will be counted on to help anchor the rotation alongside José Quintana, Sean Manaea and Kodai Senga once he gets healthy.
"He's been through a lot in the past couple of years with injuries," manager Carlos Mendoza told reporters. "But now he's in a good place. It's important. This is a big year for him, and we're going to need him. We're counting on him. I'm excited to see Sevy returning to his old form."
New York Yankees: LHP Carlos Rodón
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Despite his long injury history, the New York Yankees signed Carlos Rodón to a six-year, $162 million contract last offseason to serve as the No. 2 starter behind ace Gerrit Cole.
The injury bug reared its ugly head again in 2023 and limited him to 14 starts in his Yankees debut, and he struggled to a 6.85 ERA and 5.79 FIP over 64.1 innings when he was able to take the mound.
The 31-year-old is once again penciled into the No. 2 spot in the rotation heading into the 2024 season, and the Yankees will be a different team if he can come closer to the 2.88 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 237 strikeouts in 178 innings he logged during the 2022 season.
Left-hander Nestor Cortes is another obvious bounce-back candidate in the rotation.
Oakland Athletics: 1B/OF Seth Brown
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Seth Brown was one of the few bright spots on the Oakland Athletics roster during the 2022 season when he posted a 117 OPS+ with 26 doubles, 25 home runs and 73 RBI in a 1.7-WAR season.
The 31-year-old took a step backward last year, hitting .222/.286/.405 for a 96 OPS+ with 14 home runs and 52 RBI while splitting his time between the corner outfield spots and first base.
If he can return to his 2022 form alongside 2023 breakout hitters Brent Rooker and Ryan Noda, the Athletics could have a quietly productive middle of the lineup trio to anchor their offensive attack.
Philadelphia Phillies: RHP Spencer Turnbull
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Spencer Turnbull flashed plenty of potential during his time with the Detroit Tigers, including a terrific start to the 2021 season when he logged a 2.88 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over his first nine starts.
That hot start was cut short by a forearm strain that eventually required Tommy John surgery, and after he missed the entire 2022 season recovering, he struggled to shake off the rust last year with a 7.26 ERA in seven starts before he was optioned to Triple-A and then sidelined with a neck injury.
The Tigers non-tendered him at the start of the offseason and the Phillies scooped him up on a one-year, $2 million deal that includes another $2 million in incentives. The 31-year-old is competing for a long relief spot in the bullpen, but could also be the first man up if the rotation needs reinforcements.
Pittsburgh Pirates: SS Oneil Cruz
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Oneil Cruz looked like a budding superstar during the 2022 season when he posted a 108 OPS+ with 13 doubles, 17 home runs, 54 RBI and 10 steals in 87 games, lighting up Statcast with elite exit velocities, top-tier sprint speeds and a rocket arm at shortstop.
The 25-year-old made it just nine games into the 2023 season before suffering a fractured fibula in a home plate collision and spending the rest of the season on the sidelines.
With legitimate 30/30 potential offensively and the raw tools to be a highlight reel defender at shortstop, he could develop into the face of the franchise for the Pittsburgh Pirates, though he still has a lot to prove.
San Diego Padres: RHP Robert Suárez
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After six seasons in the Mexican League and the Japanese League, right-hander Robert Suarez made his MLB debut as a 31-year-old during the 2022 season and posted a 2.27 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 11.5 K/9 with 11 holds in 45 appearances.
The Padres signed him to a five-year, $46 million deal prior to last season, but he missed the entire first half with right elbow inflammation. He returned in late July and posted a 4.23 ERA in 26 appearances.
The 33-year-old is now the leading candidate to handle the closer's role in San Diego after Josh Hader departed in free agency, and while his surface-level numbers didn't jump off the page last year, his .155 opponents' batting average speaks to his quality stuff.
San Francisco Giants: OF Michael Conforto
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Outfielder Michael Conforto turned down a qualifying offer from the New York Mets prior to the 2021-22 offseason and then ended up going unsigned before undergoing shoulder surgery in April that would keep him sidelined for the entire year.
The Giants inked him to a two-year, $36 million deal last offseason hoping to buy low on a player who has been an elite run producer at times in his career, but he hit just .239/.334/.384 for a 99 OPS+ with 15 home runs and 58 RBI in 125 games.
The 31-year-old has a 120 OPS+ over 3,450 career plate appearances, and he has averaged 28 doubles, 27 home runs, 83 RBI and 3.0 WAR per 162 games over the course of his career. Returning to that level of production would be a huge boost for the San Francisco lineup.
Seattle Mariners: OF Mitch Haniger
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The San Francisco Giants signed Mitch Haniger to a three-year, $43.5 million deal last offseason hoping he would return to the form he showed in 2021 when he posted a 122 OPS+ with 39 home runs and 100 RBI in a 3.1-WAR season.
Instead, the oft-injured outfielder missed significant time once again, with a strained oblique and a fractured forearm limiting him to 61 games. He hit .209/.266/.365 with a 77 OPS+ and a 28.4 percent strikeout rate when he was able to take the field.
The Mariners reacquired him this offseason in a swap of bad contracts that sent Robbie Ray to the Giants, and now he will look to resurrect his career in Seattle, where he logged 15.5 WAR over five seasons before departing.
St. Louis Cardinals: RHP Miles Mikolas
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The St. Louis Cardinals moved quickly to rebuild their starting rotation this offseason, signing Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson, but a return to form from Miles Mikolas could be equally impactful in 2024.
The 35-year-old was a workhorse once again in 2023, making 35 starts and tossing 201.1 innings, but he struggled to a 4.78 ERA and 1.32 WHIP while allowing an NL-high 226 hits and 107 earned runs.
His 4.27 FIP, unusually high .308 BABIP and career-low 38.8 percent ground-ball rate all point to the potential for significant improvement in 2024, and he is entering the second season of a three-year, $55.75 million extension.
Tampa Bay Rays: 2B Brandon Lowe
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Brandon Lowe has been one of baseball's most productive middle-of-the-order run producers when healthy, but injuries have limited him to 174 games over the last two seasons, as he's dealt with a nagging back issue.
"The numbers have been there every single time that I am on the field," Lowe told reporters. "I feel as good as I did in '21, so just got to stay on the field like I did in '21 and we should be all set."
The 29-year-old has a 126 OPS+ for his career, and he has averaged 34 home runs, 98 RBI and 4.4 WAR per 162 games over his career. The small-market Rays will have a big decision to make next offseason on whether to exercise his $10.5 million club option, and he could become a trade candidate as a result.
Texas Rangers: RHP Jonathan Hernández
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With a sinker that averaged 97.5 mph and a hard-biting slider that generated a 43.2 percent whiff rate, Jonathan Hernández has the stuff to be an impact arm at the back of the Texas Rangers bullpen.
He flashed potential during the 2020 season with a 2.90 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 9.0 K/9 in 27 appearances, but he spent the entire 2021 season and part of 2022 recovering from Tommy John surgery, and then struggled to a 5.40 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in 33 appearances last year.
Still only 27 years old, he has the high-octane stuff to make an impact, and while the Rangers added David Robertson and Kirby Yates in free agency, he could still emerge as a key arm in the late innings.
Toronto Blue Jays: OF Daulton Varsho
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The Toronto Blue Jays are banking on Alek Manoah returning to the form that made him a Cy Young candidate in 2022, but after he allowed three hits, one walk and hit three batters over 1.2 innings in his spring debut optimism is becoming increasingly difficult.
Instead, the team's most likely bounce-back candidate is Daulton Varsho, who took a step backward offensively in his first season with the Toronto Blue Jays after coming over in a trade with the Arizona Diamondbacks last offseason.
- 2022: 151 G, 108 OPS+, .235/.302/.443, 53 XBH, 27 HR, 4.9 WAR
- 2023: 158 G, 85 OPS+, .220/.285/.389, 46 XBH, 20 HR, 3.9 WAR
The 27-year-old was still a valuable player thanks to his power and elite outfield defense, but he is capable of more offensively.
Washington Nationals: DH/OF Jesse Winker
30 of 30
It's easy to forget that Jesse Winker was an All-Star as recently as the 2021 season when he posted a 143 OPS+ with 32 doubles, 24 home runs and 71 RBI in 110 games with the Cincinnati Reds.
The 30-year-old has hit .214/.337/.318 for a 91 OPS+ in 744 plate appearances over the past two seasons with the Seattle Mariners and Milwaukee Brewers, and he managed just one home run in 197 plate appearances last year.
The Washington Nationals rolled the dice on a minor league deal and he has a clear path to an Opening Day roster spot in a designated hitter/corner outfield role if he can put together a strong spring.
Could he be this year's Jeimer Candelario for the rebuilding Nats?
Advanced stats via Baseball Reference and Baseball Savant unless otherwise noted.
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