2024 NFL Draft: Predicting Trade Packages for Potential Top-10 Pick Deals
The NFL combine is an important part of the evaluation process for teams across the league, but it's also where a lot of talk between franchises takes place. With all 32 teams present in Indianapolis, the event can serve as a hotbed for trade talks.
Of particular interest in this year's class could be top-10 picks. Quarterbacks Drake Maye and Caleb Williams are No. 3 and 4 on our big board. Jayden Daniels is also in the top 25. Then there's wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., the No. 1 overall prospect on our board who teams could see as a solution to their passing-game woes.
Add in a pair of elite tackles who can start right away at a premium position in Joe Alt and Olumuyiwa Fashanu and you have several blue-chip talents that teams might be willing to trade up for.
Below, we'll take a look at some of the picks in the top 10 that might draw the most interest as teams try to jockey for position. Based on the talent available and previous moves up for the same pick, we'll put together some hypothetical packages to gauge what it might take to move up in this year's draft.
No. 1 Pick, Chicago Bears
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Last Time Someone Traded Up to the Pick: 2023
Bears Received: WR D.J. Moore, No. 9 and No. 61 picks in 2023, first-round pick in 2024 (No. 1 overall), 2025 second-round pick
Panthers Received: No. 1 pick in 2023 (QB Bryce Young)
The Chicago Bears are sitting in the driver's seat of the whole draft because of the deal they made last season to trade out of the No. 1 pick in last year's draft. Their faith in Justin Fields to continue improving and potentially become the franchise quarterback, combined with a nice haul from the Panthers, made it appealing to trade away the pick.
Unfortunately for the Panthers, adding Bryce Young wasn't near enough to keep them from having the league's worst record. But the Bears are still facing a similar dilemma. Justin Fields has one more year left on his contract, and the Bears have until May 2 to decide on his fifth-year option.
Really, the Bears have three options at No. 1, and two of them involve trading it away.
If they are comfortable moving forward with Fields, they could draw another bounty from a team looking to leapfrog the Commanders and Patriots at Nos. 2 and 3, respectively. Drafting Marvin Harrison Jr. should be an option, but with Caleb Williams and Drake Maye in the class, it makes too much sense to shop the pick.
The other scenario would be if the Bears don't have a strong preference between Williams or Maye. That would allow them to work out a deal with the Commanders, who could potentially give up a smaller package but still allow the Bears to come away with Williams or Maye.
Predicted Package from Commanders: 2024 first-round pick (No. 2 overall), 2024 second-round pick (No. 36 overall), 2025 fourth-round pick
Predicted Package from Other Teams: 2024 first-round pick, 2024 second-round pick, 2025 first-round pick, 2026 first-round pick
No. 3 Pick, New England Patriots
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Last Time Someone Traded Up to the Pick: 2023
Cardinals Received: No. 12 pick, No. 33 pick in 2023, 2024 first-round pick, 2024 third-round pick
Texans Received: No. 3 pick (EDGE Will Anderson Jr.), No. 105 pick
You don't have to go back very far to see the last time a team traded up for the third overall pick. The Texans made the aggressive move to go from 12th to third last season in a risky move that seems to have paid off given how good Will Anderson Jr. was as a rookie.
Still, if the Cardinals had it to do over, they would probably still pull the trigger on the trade. They netted an additional first-rounder and two extra Day 2 picks for the move.
This year, it's the New England Patriots sitting at No. 3, and there's likely to be an even bigger market for the pick. Assuming Drake Maye and Caleb Williams are the first two players off the board, the Patriots could have their choice between Jayden Daniels, Marvin Harrison Jr. or trading down to pick up a collection of picks.
Bridget Condon of NFL Network reported that Bill Belichick loved Daniels. However, Belichick is no longer with the team, so they might be willing to trade out of the spot. Marvin Harrison Jr. is another realistic target here. The Browns once netted five draft picks with multiple first-rounders when the Falcons moved up to No. 6 to get Julio Jones.
Given the talent of both Harrison Jr. and Daniels as well as the fact that Daniels is a quarterback, this move should prove more costly this season.
Predicted Trade Package: 2024 first-round pick (Nos. 8-12 range), 2024 second-round pick, 2025 first-round pick, 2025 third-round pick, 2026 third-round pick
No. 4 Pick, Arizona Cardinals
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Last Time Someone Traded Up to the Pick: 2014
Browns Received: No. 9 pick in 2014, 2015 first-round pick, 2015 fourth-round pick
Bills Received: No. 4 pick (WR Sammy Watkins)
For one reason or another, the fourth pick has not been a popular trade-up destination. However, it is interesting that the last time someone traded up to the spot, it was for a wide receiver.
That scenario could be in play once again in this draft. If the Patriots either draft Jayden Daniels or trade down to a team looking to add the quarterback, then the Cardinals could have an interesting bidding war going for Marvin Harrison Jr.
It would likely take a massive trade package to get the Cardinals to bite in that scenario. Finding a true No. 1 receiver for Kyler Murray has to be a big priority, and they already have the most draft capital in this draft, per Tankathon.
The Cardinals' riches in this draft, which include two first-round picks and three third-round picks, could mean they would value picks from this year's draft less. That coincides with the trade package from a decade ago, but the Cardinals would likely want a veteran player who is going to produce in the same way that the Bears wanted D.J. Moore to be included in the trade for the top pick last season.
If a team is willing to pay up for Harrison (or Daniels if Harrison is taken third), they might have to get a little more creative.
Predicted Trade Package: Proven veteran (in the vein of D.J. Moore), 2024 first-round pick (any range), 2025 third-round pick, 2025 fifth-round pick
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No. 6 Pick, New York Giants
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Last Time Someone Traded Up to the Pick: 2023
Lions Received: No. 12 pick, No. 34 pick
Cardinals Received: No. 6 pick (OT Paris Johnson Jr.), No. 81 pick
The Arizona Cardinals traded up to the sixth pick last season to secure protection up front. They moved up six spots to ensure they came away with Ohio State's Paris Johnson Jr., who was the first tackle off the board.
Coincidentally, any team that wants to make sure they get one of the top tackles in this draft class may also need to come up to sixth. In B/R's post-Pro Bowl mock draft, the top two tackles in this year's draft—Joe Alt and Olumuyiwa Fashanu—go fifth and sixth, respectively, with all three top quarterbacks and Marvin Harrison Jr. off the board.
The tackle class is strong, but Alt and Fashanu are still a clear tier above the other options in the class.
The New York Giants, who own the sixth pick, could be in a position to get a nice return if they are willing to move back. The 2023 swap between the Lions and Cardinals is somewhat unique, because the teams kept all the compensation in the same draft.
However, New York might want to consider looking for a package like the Philadelphia Eagles got from the Miami Dolphins in 2021, when they received the No. 12 pick, No. 123 (fourth round) and a 2022 first-round pick in exchange for the sixth overall pick and 156th selection (fifth round).
The Giants could keep a first-rounder this year while also storing away a future first in a draft where they might be looking for a quarterback if Daniel Jones doesn't perform.
Predicted Trade Package: 2024 first-round pick (Nos. 10-15 range), 2024 fourth-round pick, 2025 first-round pick
No. 7 Pick, Tennessee Titans
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Last Time Someone Traded Up to the Pick: 2018
Buccaneers Received: No. 12 pick, No. 53 pick and No. 56 pick
Bills Received: No. 7 pick (QB Josh Allen), No. 255 pick
Back in 2018, the Buffalo Bills made a relatively bold move to trade up from 12th in the 2018 draft to take a chance on a toolsy quarterback from Wyoming. The move has turned out pretty well for them.
The seventh pick could once again be a hot target in the draft if Jayden Daniels, another quarterback with high athletic upside, is still available. This spot gets highlighted, because if Daniels were to fall further, the Atlanta Falcons would be an obvious candidate to draft him.
So teams like the Minnesota Vikings (11th), Denver Broncos (12th) and Las Vegas Raiders (13th) could be willing to give up an enticing package of picks to move up. Tennessee has multiple needs on a rebuilding roster that will try to build an offense around Will Levis this season.
That should put the compensation package in a similar range to the one the Buccaneers received when the Bills were moving up to get their quarterback.
The only problem is that none of those three teams have two second-round picks like the Bills did back then. That means the compensation package is probably going to extend into the 2025 draft and might require an additional pick since the Titans would have to wait an extra year to cash in.
Predicted Trade Package: 2024 first-round pick (Nos. 11-13 range), 2024 second-round pick, 2024 fourth-round pick, 2025 second-round pick
No. 10 Pick, New York Jets
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Last Time Someone Traded Up to the Pick: 2021
Cowboys Received: No. 12 pick, No. 84 pick
Eagles Received: No. 10 pick (WR DeVonta Smith)
With a run of three quarterback-needy teams immediate following the No. 10 pick, the New York Jets might want to make sure their phone lines are clear on draft day, especially if Jayden Daniels falls or J.J. McCarthy gains more steam.
ESPN's Jordan Reid reported the Michigan quarterback is expected to be the fourth quarterback taken after Caleb Williams, Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels. Depending on how desperate the Vikings, Broncos and Raiders are, there could be a market to get just ahead of the competition.
That could drive up the cost a little bit compared to the 2021 swap between NFC East rivals. The Cowboys got an extra third-round pick to move back to spots and take Micah Parsons so the Eagles could get DeVonta Smith.
There's a chance the cost would go up with a "quarterback tax," but the Jets also wouldn't likely be going that far down the board. There's a good chance they could still add a capable offensive tackle.
JC Latham is ranked 14th overall on our board, while Amarius Mims is ranked 23rd.
Trading back probably wouldn't bring back a huge package of picks, but adding another Day 2 pick isn't a bad thing for a team trying to be competitive right away.
Predicted Trade Package: 2024 first-round pick (Nos. 11-13 range), 2024 third-round pick
Visit B/R's NFL Scouting Department hub for scouting reports on all of the top prospects.
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