Mets Rumors: NYM Won't Pursue Top-of-the-Rotation Pitcher After Kodai Senga Injury

The New York Mets are not planning on adding a top starter despite the news of Kodai Senga's shoulder strain, according to SNY's Andy Martino.

Mets president David Stearns said Thursday that Senga, who was expected to anchor the rotation, would instead begin the 2024 season on the injured list.

But Stearns added that the Mets aren't planning on replacing him with a pitcher outside the organization.

That's in part due to the 110 percent luxury tax the Mets would pay on every dollar spent on free agent candidates like Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery, according to Martino.

"To put it another way, if the Mets did not see a fit before Senga's injury, that remains the case after the team learned that news," Martino wrote. "An injury that the team hopes will only last a few months has not yet moved them to consider committing to other players for multiple years."

Stearns did not commit to a return timeline for Senga, but said the pitcher would "make a bunch of starts this year."

Senga earned a 2.98 ERA and a 12-7 record in 29 starts for the Mets last season.

The Mets paid a record-high luxury tax bill of more than $100 million for their fourth-place finish in the NL East in 2023.

Because the Mets are set to pay luxury tax for the third year in a row, they will be hit by the highest possible tax for any amount over $297 million.

The team payroll currently sits less than $14 million below that threshold, per Spotrac, and would almost certainly go over by signing one of the top free agent pitchers.

Snell will likely earn around five years and $150 million, while Montgomery is reportedly looking for at least five years and $100 million.

With the added tax, each pitcher would cost the Mets between $70 and $80 million in 2024, according to Martino.

That's not the only downside. Making a new five-year commitment would hamper the Mets' future efforts to reset the cap and stop taking draft penalties. New York is already set to see its 2025 first-round pick pushed back 10 slots as a penalty for payroll overages, per The Athletic's Will Sammon and Tim Britton.

The Mets will still need to make a decision as to who will be rounding out the rotation alongside Jose Quintana, Sean Manaea, Luis Severino and Adrian Houser while Senga is sidelined.

One option is to bolster pitching depth by promoting within the organization. As Martino put it, "this looks more like an opportunity for Tylor Megill than it does for a Snell or Montgomery."

Megill, a contestant for the fifth spot in the starting rotation alongside Joey Lucchesi, Jose Butto and Max Kranick, is looking to rebound after his struggles in 2023 earned him a June demotion to Triple-A Syracuse.