2024 NFL Draft: Biggest Risers and Fallers Ahead of the Scouting Combine
NFL draft evaluations aren't static. Every morsel of information helps to better inform as the process ensues.
Extra film study and certain landmarks can change the course of a prospect's trajectory.
As general managers love to say to the point of cliche, the film serves as the majority of the evaluation, though everyone sees how other events and factors play into final decisions.
Two weeks ago, the Senior and Shrine Bowls were played; the last chance for individuals to put something on tape for scouts to evaluate. The class' top 321 prospects, as deemed by NFL front offices, will attend the scouting combine in less than two weeks. From there, pro days will ensue. Organizations will then have private visits to better assess preferred targets.
All of these steps allow for the most well-rounded evaluations. As such, some fluidity remains in our rankings. The Bleacher Report Scouting Department of Brandon Thorn, Cory Giddings, Derrik Klassen and Matt Holder have adjusted through self-scouting and additional information.
The following eight prospects have risen or fallen the furthest since the end of the college football season based on B/R's rankings.
4. Faller: DL Tyler Davis, Clemson
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Defensive tackle Tyler Davis entered the Clemson Tigers program as a heralded recruit and immediately looked like a future star as a true freshman.
During his time in Death Valley, he became a three-time first-team All-ACC selection and a permanent team captain. But he never quite reached the level of promise expected after his first season.
The 23-year-old could and probably should have entered last year's draft class, after posting a career-high 9.5 sacks in 12 games.
"Why not come back and be a part of one of the best defenses in the country... and go win a natty?" Davis responded when asked about his decision.
Plans went astray, with the Tigers defense finishing eighth overall but the squad lost four games, including the season-opener against the Duke Blue Devils, and never was a serious national championship contender.
While going back for another year of school may have been ill-advised, the fact that Davis' impact production dropped significantly grew worrisome. He graded well, according to Pro Football Focus, but his tackles for loss dipped to 3.5 and he registered only half-a-sack.
From an evaluation standpoint, concerns developed over build and role.
"Davis is likely going to be more of a two-down player in the NFL and will have to overcome some size limitations," Holder wrote in his scouting report, "but he can be a quality rotational interior defender as either a 3-technique in even fronts or a 4i-technique in odd fronts."
These issues became apparent at the Senior Bowl when Davis came in just under 6'1" and 300 pounds, with arms shorter than 31 inches. For comparison, Aaron Donald is the greatest undersized defensive tackle of all time. He's shorter and lighter than Davis, yet his arms are nearly two inches longer.
As a result, Davis struggled to disengage from blocks and to make plays in Mobile, Alabama.
4. Riser: WR Ricky Pearsall, Florida
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Part of being drafted is about peaking at the right time in order to maximize an individual's slotting. Florida's Ricky Pearsall appears to be well on his way to fitting that description.
Each year the Arizona State transfer improved.
During his first two seasons with the Sun Devils, the wide receiver wasn't a significant part of the offense. In Year 3, he caught 48 passes for 580 yards and then transferred to Florida, where he led the Gators in receiving each of the last two seasons.
But the improvement continued. In 2022, Pearsall set new career highs with 661 receiving yards and five touchdown receptions. This past season, the 6'1" target caught 65 passes for 965 yards.
Coming out of the collegiate ranks, he is seen primarily as a vertical threat, because he has the speed to stack defensive backs. He shook numerous defenders and got open deep during his time at the Senior Bowl.
However, Pearsall is a more well-rounded threat than initially anticipated. His routes in Mobile were crisper than expected. He sinks in and out of his stem with quick feet to create separation. He's also a reliable threat.
According to Pro Football Focus, the senior prospect dropped only three passes the last two seasons despite being targeted 147 times.
With good change-of-direction numbers at the scouting combine, his ascension will continue.
Pearsall brings a clearly definable trait to any offense at the onset of his career. He'll be able to serve as a complementary option to take the top off of opposing defenses. But he also showed over time that's he's more than a one-trick pony. He brings enough potential to be even more in a scheme, which makes him a solid Day 2 draft option.
3. Faller: Edge Mohamed Kamara, Colorado State
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Good production does not equate to an elite prospect. Colorado State's Mohamed Kamara is an excellent example of a productive collegiate prospect whose traits don't necessarily translate to the next level.
At first blush, he is the dominant type of performer NFL teams want from a non-Power Five program. He tied for fourth overall with 13 sacks and fourth among defensive linemen with 17 tackles for loss this past season. Subsequently, he won the Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year.
Kamara's senior season was the culmination of multiple years of improvement. His tackles for loss and sacks increased in each of the last three campaigns, with 42.5 and 29, respectively, during that stretch.
The question is how he fits exactly at the next level.
"He struggles to shed blocks and likely won't be much of a factor on early downs in the NFL," Holder wrote.
"The Colorado State product also has a lot of other factors that will impact his draft stock and be hard to overcome. He lacks the ideal NFL size/length (6'1" with 32 1/2-inch arms) for the position, is an older draft prospect as a graduate student and played at a lower level of competition.
"Overall, he's worthy of a Day 3 selection for any team looking to add a situational pass-rusher in the later rounds."
Concerns over Kamara's frame can be assuaged with strong testing at the NFL combine.
The edge-rusher does have a good pass-rush plan, with excellent hand-play and a relentless motor, but those things can be countered by professional blockers.
Kamara will need to find ways to win clean and provide a specific role early in his career, since he shouldn't be considered an every-down defender.
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3. Riser: DL Braden Fiske, Florida State
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The limitations to Braden Fiske's game are obvious; they just don't hold him back.
The Florida State product, who played his first four seasons with the Western Michigan Broncos, isn't the biggest or longest defensive tackle. In fact, he's a 6'3.5", 295-pound defensive tackle with 31-inch arms.
Typically, those numbers would automatically place him at a disadvantage and drop his grade. But those measurements don't necessarily reflect his caliber of play.
Fiske is strong as an ox at the point of attack and explosive. He consistently disengaged, got into the opposing backfield and all-star offensive linemen struggled to keep him from wrecking plays during their time at the Senior Bowl.
His first-step quickness is excellent as well. As a result, his teammates in Mobile named him the practice player of the week among defensive linemen.
The performance only built upon a strong finish to the 2023 campaign, where Fiske registered five pressures during the ACC Championship Game against the Louisville Cardinals, per Pro Football Focus.
Between Florida State and Western Michigan over the last two seasons, the 24-year-old accumulated 21 tackles for loss and 12 sacks.
"Fiske has the potential to become a good 3-technique defensive tackle in the NFL, especially as a pass-rusher, primarily due to his blend of strength and athleticism," Holder wrote.
"Fiske shows a lot of impressive movement skills and hip mobility to grow as a rusher, and he's effective as the looper in line games with good agility to gain ground vertically while moving laterally. Against the run, his lightning-quick get-off allows him to get penetration, and he has pop in his hands to win at the point of attack."
Fiske still needs to improve his overall hand usage to offset his lack of length, which will make him more effective at the next level. If that area improves, he can develop into a potential game-wrecker.
2. Faller: CB Josh Newton, TCU
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Sometimes, a highly regarded prospect doesn't do enough during his final season to maintain his previous status.
Case in point, TCU's Josh Newton was a first-team All-Big 12 performer in 2022 when the Horned Frogs made an unexpected run to the National Championship. He looked like a very early draft pick at that point.
The 23-year-old chose to run it back for a sixth season. Unfortunately, others surpassed him when it came to the cornerback hierarchy.
Newton didn't play poorly, per se. He did start slowly against the Colorado Buffaloes by allowing receivers to stack him on deep routes. As the season progressed, the experienced cornerback settled into more of a groove. His eight pass breakups led the Horned Frogs, with 20 total over the last two seasons.
But the likes of Alabama's Terrion Arnold, Toledo's Quinyon Mitchell, Clemson Nate Higgins, Oregon's Khyree Jackson, Iowa's Cooper DeJean, Georgia's Kamari Lassiter and Iowa State's T.J. Tampa established themselves this season as legitimate options for the first and second rounds.
Newton now finds himself a little further down the list as a potential third-round target.
The biggest projection regarding Newton isn't necessary how talented he is. Rather, scheme fit will be important. He will be higher on certain boards than others.
While the cornerback played a significant amount of press man, he doesn't necessarily have the top-end or closing speed to thrive in the same type of system at the highest level.
"Throughout his collegiate career, Newton was a highly competitive cornerback," Giddings wrote. "He's schematically limited, but he had some bright spots in both the run and pass game. He is a high-level developmental prospect who will need a perfect fit to thrive in the NFL."
So, keep in mind that Newton "falling" is relative based on a non-team-specific draft board.
2. Riser: CB Terrion Arnold, Alabama
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Alabama's Terrion Arnold reaching CB1 status proved to be a process, but it was one that ultimately played out in his favor.
Previously, teammate Kool-Aid McKinstry held the spot since he's basically been "the guy" during his time with the Crimson Tide.
McKinstry entered the program as a 5-star recruit as the nation's best high school cornerback from the 2021 class and became a three-year starter before declaring for this year's draft.
McKinstry was the known commodity, but Arnold had to earn his way onto the field.
Interestingly, Arnold, who was also a 5-star recruit, came into the program as a safety. He converted to cornerback in 2022, where he didn't become a starter until mid-October. The coaching staff weren't even sure if he'd earn the starting job this past summer after bringing in transfers Jaylen Key and Trey Amos.
Not only did Arnold start, he thrived to the point where his level of play couldn't be denied after a period. But that evaluation took time.
As the process ensued, it become obvious how well he transitioned into a full-time starting cornerback. His route-recognition was exemplary. He brought a physical style of play with him from safety. In fact, he graded first among all Power Five CBs in run defense grade, according to Pro Football Focus.
"He comes out there with a 'I'ma strap you up' mentality and it's gonna be play in and play out," former teammate Malachi Moore told Al.com's Nick Alvarez.
A thorough evaluation eventually led to a simple conclusion that couldn't be denied any longer.
"Ultimately, Arnold is the top cornerback in this year's draft," Giddings wrote in Arnold's scouting report. "A complete and well-rounded defender, there isn't much he can't do. Arnold performs best when in press man, but he has the versatility to play from off coverage and in zone, with the added versatility of playing from the slot."
1. Faller: WR Devontez Walker, North Carolina
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Once the NCAA cleared wide receiver Devontez Walker to play for the North Carolina Tar Heels this past fall, the Kent State transfer burst onto the scene with awesome production to start his ACC career. Unfortunately, that level of play didn't last.
He caught 23 passes for 321 yards and four touchdown in his first three appearances.
Aside from a seven-catch, 162-yard performance against the Duke Blue Devils, the third-team All-ACC honoree didn't catch more than four passes or surpass 76 yards in four of UNC's final five games. The Tar Heels lost three of those contests, including the final two.
Inconsistency in his routes and lack of reliability as a pass-catcher really became apparent during his time at the Senior Bowl. Too may poor routes and drops plagued Walker throughout the week.
Even so, there's a clear path forward for the wide receiver to be a contributor early in his career. He can clearly run and threaten every inch of grass on the field, giving whichever franchise selects him an immediate deep threat. It's the rest of his game that's worrisome.
"The scope of Walker's skill set is a bit narrow right now," Klass said, "but he is an elite deep threat with a solid frame. Speed will always play in the NFL. Walker can be a dangerous field-stretching Z right away with the hopes he can develop into something a little more well-rounded."
Those with Walker's traits last in the league for a long time. He can be a Josh Reynolds or Marquez Valdez-Scantling for some squad. But neither of those two heard their names called during the first two days of the NFL draft.
Walker looked like an explosive first-rounder upon initial viewing. That's no longer the case. Maybe he slips into the back end of the third round. Otherwise, the precedent has been set for a wide receiver with his specific skill set.
1. Riser: CB Quinyon Mitchell, Toledo
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No individual benefited more from the Senior Bowl than Toledo's Quinyon Mitchell. The previous statement is particularly true when it comes to B/R's evaluation.
Admittedly, the staff slow-played his grade based on his utilization at Toledo.
As a member of the Rockets, the 6'0", 195-pound defender emerged as a two-time first-team All-MAC performer, thanks primarily to his outstanding ball skills. Over the last two seasons, he defended 44 passes and snagged six interceptions, including a four-interception performance against the Northern Illinois Huskies in 2022.
Simply put, Mitchell has a nose for the football. But he also benefited from playing in a zone-heavy scheme, with an emphasis on off-coverage.
By going to Mobile, Mitchell had an opportunity to show he's a well-rounded cornerback and did so with flying colors. When facing the best competition of his career, the MAC product smothered wide receivers in man coverage. He showed the type of fluidity and movement skills necessary to thrive in any scheme.
As The Athletic's Bruce Feldman noted prior to the 2023 campaign, the Toledo corner is an explosive and twitchy athlete.
"...Mitchell bench-pressed 225 pounds 21 times, squatted 44 and had a top speed of 23.58 MPH on the GPS this summer," he said. "He also ran in the 40 in the 4.3s twice for NFL scouts this spring."
The biggest potential hole in Mitchell's game was closed with no major lingering questions. As a result, he rocketed up B/R's draft board all the way to CB2 and a top-12 ranking.
His current standing may not even be the pinnacle of his ascension. With the previously mentioned testing numbers, Mitchell has a chance to challenge for the top spot at his position depending on his combine workout.
The sky is the limit for a prospect with elite ball skills, top coverage traits and elite athleticism.
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