The Argument for Every Legit NBA MVP Candidate
With one-time front-runner Joel Embiid now mathematically eliminated from MVP consideration, it's time to take stock of the remaining contenders for the league's highest individual honor.
This isn't about making a prediction or endorsing any one candidate. The idea here is to lay out the best argument for each of the five current betting favorites. In other words, if you had to convince voters to choose Kawhi Leonard, Luka Dončić, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or Nikola Jokić, this is what you'd say.
The trick is making a clear case for each of the five options without simply bashing the other four or cherry-picking stats too cleverly. Fortunately, all five come with compelling evidence, which helps us avoid mental gymnastics or disingenuous takes. It helps that the MVP criteria has always been hazily defined, allowing for all sorts of interpretations of the term "valuable."
We won't find out who wins the 2023-24 NBA MVP for several months, but we've seen enough to outline cases for the five favorites.
Kawhi Leonard, LA Clippers
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We'll get to the more statistically grounded arguments in a second, but we should probably start Kawhi Leonard's MVP case with something harder to measure: The fear he inspires in opponents.
There's just something undeniably powerful about his expressionless dominance—the way he calmly removes the ball from his matchup's possession or appears in passing lanes without seeming to try. He makes steals look downright lawful, as if the ball was rightfully his all along.
On the offensive end, Leonard's buckets feel inevitable. He uses his overpowering physical strength to methodically work his way to spots on the floor where defenders know they're finished before the shot goes up. He's quietly destructive on both ends, and that has to unnerve everyone against whom he plays.
This seems like an appropriate time to mention he's been the league's top isolation scorer this season, averaging 1.21 points per play in one-on-one situations, the highest scoring rate of anyone using at least two isolation possessions per game. Though most of those individual attacks result in buckets inside the arc (or free throws), the 32-year-old is also enjoying his most effective perimeter shooting season ever. At 45.1 percent from deep, he is the second-most accurate marksman among shooters attempting at least 5.0 triples per game.
Though there are some excellent defenders in the MVP field, Leonard might be the most valuable due to his versatility. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a steals machine and Giannis Antetokounmpo offers more rim-protection, but the sheer breadth of Leonard's matchups illustrate his across-the-board impact.
Stephen Curry, Anthony Davis and Brandon Ingram all sit among the top six players Leonard has defended most this year, joined by LeBron James, Julius Randle and Aaron Gordon. If you're keeping score, that means the LA Clippers have no issue throwing him at deep-threat point guards, board-crashing bigs or mid-range maestros.
That's cross-positional versatility you won't find in any other candidate.
Lastly, the team-success argument is also favorable for Leonard. His Clippers have been the best team in the West since Dec. 1, and he's had everything to do with it.
If L.A. finishes tops in the conference and Leonard sustains his current stat line of 24.1 points, 6.2 rebounds and 3.7 assists on a 52.7/45.3/89.1 shooting split, he'll have as strong of a case as he's ever had, which is saying something for a guy who's finished in the top 10 of MVP voting five times.
Luka Dončić, Dallas Mavericks
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The numbers Luka Dončić is putting up are genuinely difficult to comprehend.
He's somehow leading the league in scoring at 34.3 points per game while posting an assist rate that ranks in the 94th percentile among point guards—a position he technically plays, even if that designation doesn't really capture what he does on the floor.
Very few point guards also average 8.8 rebounds per game.
One particular run of play in late January typified Dončić's outlier status. On Jan. 26, he racked up 73 points on 25-of-33 shooting, which tied for the fourth-highest scoring total in league history and set a new record with a 91.2 true shooting percentage in a 70-point game.
That outburst was only part of what will likely be the most prolific stretch any player will produce this year. Across six games from Jan. 17 to Feb. 3, the 24-year-old averaged 40.9 points, 11.7 assists and 11.0 rebounds while hitting 50.7 percent of his shots from the field.
He's the only player in NBA history with two 45-point, 15-assist games, and they came within roughly a month of one another this season.
You won't hear Dončić's MVP supporters arguing he's anything more than passable defensively, but the five-time All-Star shoulders such a load on offense that it's almost unreasonable to expect much on the other end.
And while his odds might take a hit because his Dallas Mavericks are the only candidate's team currently ticketed for a measly Play-In spot, it's worth noting there is historical precedent for someone with his combo of wild stats and middling team performance winning MVP.
Russell Westbrook collected his only MVP after averaging 31.6 points, 10.7 rebounds and 10.4 assists with demonstrably worse scoring efficiency for an Oklahoma City Thunder team that finished sixth in the West in 2016-17.
If Dallas climbs into a clear top-six spot, Dončić has a real chance.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
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Seasons as dominant as the one Giannis Antetokounmpo is currently enjoying rarely get overlooked to this degree.
The controlling narrative of this Milwaukee Bucks campaign, which included an in-season coaching change after months of off-brand defensive struggles, is one of unease and disappointment.
That's a little strange for a club that seems likely to finish second in the East with a win total in the mid-50s, but there's no denying the uncertainty surrounding Milwaukee's play to this point.
There's also no denying that Giannis, despite doubts surrounding his team, is playing MVP-caliber ball.
No one in league history has averaged over 30.0 points, 11.0 rebounds and 6.0 assists while shooting better than 60.0 percent from the field, but he is on pace to be the first. Combine that unprecedented statistical production with the most relentlessly competitive mindset (this is an unofficial measure, but he doesn't have a half-speed setting), and you get an idea of how steadying his presence is for teammates and how overwhelming it can be for opponents.
It's rare for superstars to play with a motor that usually belongs to a fringe reserve clawing for minutes, but the 29-year-old's revs like no one else's in this exercise.
Second in Dunks and Threes' Estimated Wins, fourth in Value Over Replacement Player and, to keep things simple, first in made field goals, he belongs on the shortest list for MVP.
Does last season's playoff collapse hurt him? Does the fact that he's already won a pair MVPs trigger voter fatigue? Perhaps so on both counts. But Giannis is a game-wrecking player on both ends whose pedigree and numbers should earn him much more consideration than he's gotten to this point.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
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When you stack up the basic stats of the top MVP candidates, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's don't leap off the page.
The 25-year-old leads the group in games played and steals but falls short of at least one of the other options in scoring, assists, rebounds, effective field-goal percentage and just about any other standard metric you can find.
Don't be a sucker. We know enough to look at numbers that dig a layer or two deeper in an exercise like this, and that's where SGA shines.
Tops in the league in Estimated Wins and Estimated Plus/Minus, he also has the most Offensive Win Shares, is tied for the most Defensive Win Shares and ranks behind only Jokić in Box Plus/Minus. He's one of three players in the entire league averaging at least 3.0 steals and 1.0 block per 100 possessions, and no one in the NBA has made more free throws.
That last tidbit is a good way to transition into the less-quantifiable features of SGA's game, the most prominent of which being his status as, arguably, the league's single hardest player to stay in front of.
Whether it's the off-time cadence with which he dribbles, the clever footwork or the innate sense of when a defender is ever so slightly off balance, Gilgeous-Alexander attacks his man with a kind of liquid quality. He moves through and past obstructions, seemingly without effort. He is water.
When his man tries to beat him to a spot, SGA chooses another one, usually far away from where his defender mistakenly went.
Spins, step-backs, up-and-unders—he has it all. It's why he's leading the league in drives for the fourth straight year.
Last year's fifth-place MVP finisher is posting a nearly identical scoring average alongside more rebounds, assists and steals with higher shooting percentages from all over the floor. Most importantly, he's putting up those career-best (and in some cases league-leading) numbers for an Oklahoma City Thunder team with a legitimate shot to win 60 games and finish first in the West.
No "MVP Criteria" box goes unchecked when it comes to SGA.
Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets
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If you got through the first four top-flight MVP hopefuls, didn't see Nikola Jokić's name and knew beyond any doubt that he was coming up, congratulations.
You now have a vague sense of the clairvoyance our final candidate enjoys every second he's on the floor.
If "he has a sixth sense" isn't a persuasive argument for an MVP candidate, that's fine. Jokić's case doesn't depend on appreciation for anticipation. It just seems worthwhile in a hair-splitting study like this to note when one of the subjects has what seems like an actual superpower.
Averages of 26.3 points, 12.2 rebounds and 9.0 assists are a good starting point for understanding Jokić's influence on every game he plays. A clearer illustration: The Denver Nuggets center leads the league in touches (just like he has every year since 2018-19), but he ranks outside the top 35 in time of possession.
The 28-year-old controls the game without dominating the ball, making decisions more quickly and creatively than anyone else we've discussed, improving possessions by putting his teammates in positions to succeed when he can and scoring on his own when that option is unavailable.
As usual, Denver transforms to an almost comic degree, depending on whether Jokić is in the game. This season, the Nuggets are 21.3 points per 100 possessions better with Jokić on the floor, the third straight season in which that number has been at least plus-19.0. Giannis' impact is a competitive plus-17.5, but none of the others in the running are even halfway to Jokić's figure.
All the individual numbers are just as good as they were when Jokić won MVPs in 2020-21 and 2021-22, including the league lead in Box Plus/Minus and Win Shares per 48 minutes. But in a team game, shouldn't his singular ability to maximize the success of everyone around him count for a little extra?
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Accurate entering games Wednesday, Feb. 14. Salary info via Spotrac.
Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@gt_hughes), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report's Dan Favale.
