Grading MLB's No. 1 Prospect Every Year From the 2010s
One of the staples of each new MLB season is fresh Top 100 prospect lists, and while physical tools and minor league production can hint toward a player's future success in the big leagues, there is no guarantee that prospects will live up to the hype.
The consensus top prospect in baseball heading into the 2023 season was Baltimore Orioles infielder Gunnar Henderson, and he kicked off his career with a bang, winning 2023 AL Rookie of the Year honors and finishing eighth in AL MVP voting during a 6.2-WAR rookie campaign.
However, things don't always go that smoothly for the game's most hyped up-and-comers.
Ahead we've taken a look back at the top prospects in baseball for every year during the 2010s, with top prospect lists pulled from the annual Baseball America Top 100.
Along with a grade and analysis for each No. 1 prospect, there is also a quick look at the Top 10 prospects from each year to even better illustrate that "can't miss" prospects do indeed miss from time to time.
Enjoy!
2019: 3B Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays
1 of 10
Grade: A
One of the most hyped international prospects in recent memory thanks to his Hall of Fame lineage and elite offensive profile, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hit .381/.437/.636 with 29 doubles, 20 home runs and 78 RBI in 95 games over four minor league levels as a 19-year-old in 2018.
He spent a few weeks in the minors to begin the 2019 season before making his MLB debut on April 26, and while he was not an instant superstar, he did post a 106 OPS+ with 26 doubles, 15 home runs, 69 RBI and 2.1 WAR in 123 games as the second-youngest player to appear in an MLB game this season.
Still only 24 years old, he finished runner-up in AL MVP voting in 2021 and has been an All-Star in each of the past three seasons, logging a 131 OPS+ and 15.2 WAR during his short time in the big leagues.
1. 3B Vladimir Guerrero Jr., TOR
2. SS Fernando Tatis Jr., SD
3. OF Eloy Jiménez, CWS
4. SS Wander Franco, TB
5. RHP Forrest Whitley, HOU
6. OF Jo Adell, LAA
7. LHP Jesús Luzardo, OAK
8. SS Bo Bichette, TOR
9. SS Royce Lewis, MIN
10. 3B Nick Senzel, CIN
2018: OF Ronald Acuña Jr., Atlanta Braves
2 of 10
Grade: A+
Even with all the hype surrounding two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani when he signed with the Los Angeles Angels, it was still Ronald Acuña Jr. penciled into the No. 1 prospect spot heading into the 2018 season.
After playing just 97 total games during his first two professional seasons while not advancing above Single-A, he hit .325/.374/.522 with 31 doubles, 21 home runs, 82 RBI and 44 steals in 139 games between High-A, Double-A and Triple-A in 2017.
His rapid rise to stardom continued when he made his MLB debut on April 25, 2018, and he went on to win NL Rookie of the Year honors, posting a 143 OPS+ with 26 doubles, 26 home runs, 64 RBI, 16 steals and 3.9 WAR. Now coming off 2023 NL MVP honors, he is one of the game's biggest superstars.
1. OF Ronald Acuña Jr., ATL
2. RHP/DH Shohei Ohtani, LAA
3. 3B Vladimir Guerrero Jr., TOR
4. OF Eloy Jiménez, CWS
5. OF Victor Robles, WAS
6. SS Gleyber Torres, NYY
7. 3B Nick Senzel, CIN
8. SS Bo Bichette, TOR
9. SS Fernando Tatis Jr., SD
10. RHP Forrest Whitley, HOU
2017: OF Andrew Benintendi, Boston Red Sox
3 of 10
Grade: C
Andrew Benintendi won 2015 Golden Spikes honors at the University of Arkansas while hitting .376/.488/.717 with 20 home runs and 24 steals as a draft-eligible sophomore before going No. 7 overall in that year's draft to the Boston Red Sox.
He played just 151 games in the minors before making his MLB debut on Aug. 2, 2016, and he hit .295 with a 118 OPS+ and 14 extra-base hits in 118 plate appearances down the stretch. That was enough to maintain his rookie eligibility and secure him the No. 1 prospect spot heading into 2017.
He hit .271/.352/.424 with 26 doubles, 20 home runs, 96 RBI and 20 steals to finish runner-up in 2017 AL Rookie of the Year voting, and while he has put together a solid eight-year career, he never quite developed into the franchise cornerstone he was expected to become. In eight MLB seasons, he has 16.1 WAR and is currently playing on a five-year, $75 million deal with the Chicago White Sox.
1. OF Andrew Benintendi, BOS
2. 2B/3B Yoán Moncada, CWS
3. SS Dansby Swanson, ATL
4. RHP Alex Reyes, STL
5. SS Gleyber Torres, NYY
6. OF Austin Meadows, PIT
7. 1B Cody Bellinger, LAD
8. SS Amed Rosario, NYM
9. 3B Nick Senzel, CIN
10. SS Willy Adames, TB
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2016: SS Corey Seager, Los Angeles Dodgers
4 of 10
Grade: A+
A top-10 prospect heading into the 2015 season, Corey Seager staked his claim to the No. 1 spot the following year when he made his MLB debut as a September call-up and took over the starting shortstop job from Jimmy Rollins, hitting .337/.425/.561 in 113 plate appearances down the stretch.
He then broke camp with the starting shortstop job in 2016 and hit .308/.365/.512 with 40 doubles, 26 home runs, 72 RBI, 105 runs scored and 5.2 WAR. He was an All-Star and Silver Slugger winner, won NL Rookie of the Year honors unanimously and checked in third in NL MVP balloting.
The 29-year-old has dealt with some injury issues in the years since his stellar debut, but he has been a bona fide superstar when healthy, posting a 134 OPS+ and 32.0 WAR in nine seasons. He won World Series MVP honors in 2020 with the Los Angeles Dodgers and 2023 with the Texas Rangers.
1. SS Corey Seager, LAD
2. OF Byron Buxton, MIN
3. 2B Yoán Moncada, BOS
4. LHP Julio Urias, LAD
5. RHP Lucas Giolito, WAS
6. SS J.P. Crawford, PHI
7. RHP Alex Reyes, STL
8. SS Orlando Arcia, MIL
9. SS Trea Turner, WAS
10. 3B/OF Joey Gallo, TEX
2015: 3B Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs
5 of 10
Grade: B+
In his first full professional season after going No. 2 overall in the 2013 draft, Kris Bryant hit .325/.438/.661 with 34 doubles, 43 home runs and 110 RBI in 138 games between Double-A and Triple-A.
The Chicago Cubs' decision to send him to the minors to start the 2015 season was one of the most blatant examples of service time manipulation in the history of the sport, and when he made his MLB debut less than two weeks after Opening Day it signaled the organization turning the page from rebuilding to contending.
He posted a 135 OPS+ with 26 home runs and 99 RBI to win 2015 NL Rookie of the Year, and the following season he took home NL MVP honors while leading the Cubs to a long-awaited World Series title. Injuries knocked off a superstar trajectory in the seasons that followed and he has been a non-factor since signing a seven-year, $182 million deal with the Colorado Rockies, but few prospects have made a bigger immediate splash in the big leagues.
1. 3B Kris Bryant, CHC
2. OF Byron Buxton, MIN
3. SS Addison Russell, CHC
4. SS Carlos Correa, HOU
5. SS Corey Seager, LAD
6. 3B Joey Gallo, TEX
7. RHP Lucas Giolito, WAS
8. OF Joc Pederson, LAD
9. SS Francisco Lindor, CLE
10. LHP Julio Urias, LAD
2014: OF Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins
6 of 10
Grade: B
Despite going No. 2 overall in the 2012 draft behind Carlos Correa, outfielder Byron Buxton was widely regarded as the best player in that draft class, and his $6 million bonus was the largest handed out that year.
After playing 48 games in rookie ball after signing, he kicked off his pro career in earnest in 2013 and hit .334/.424/.521 with 19 doubles, 18 triples, 12 home runs, 77 RBI and 55 steals in 125 games between Single-A and High-A.
Injuries kept him from making his MLB debut until 2015 and have continued to be an issue throughout his career as he has played more than 100 games just once over nine years in the majors. However, he has averaged 28 home runs, 21 steals and 5.1 WAR per 162 games and has three 4-WAR seasons to his credit.
1. OF Byron Buxton, MIN
2. SS Xander Bogaerts, BOS
3. OF Oscar Taveras, STL
4. RHP Masahiro Tanaka, NYY
5. SS Javier Báez, CHC
6. 3B Miguel Sanó, MIN
7. SS Carlos Correa, HOU
8. 3B Kris Bryant, CHC
9. RHP Archie Bradley, ARI
10. OF Gregory Polanco, PIT
2013: SS Jurickson Profar, Texas Rangers
7 of 10
Grade: D
Jurickson Profar looked like a superstar in the making when he hit .286/.390/.493 with 37 doubles, 12 home runs, 65 RBI, 86 runs scored and 23 steals in 115 games as an 18-year-old at Single-A in 2012 while showing an advanced approach with more walks (65) than strikeouts (63).
That was enough to vault him to the top of leaguewide prospect lists heading into the following season, and he continued to impress at Double-A the following year when he hit .281/.368/.452 with 47 extra-base hits in 126 games.
He made his MLB debut that September as a 19-year-old but never quite found his footing with the Texas Rangers. The 30-year-old has put together a solid career as a corner outfielder over 10 seasons in the big leagues, but he has not come close to delivering on expectations.
1. SS Jurickson Profar, TEX
2. RHP Dylan Bundy, BAL
3. OF Oscar Taveras, STL
4. OF Wil Myers, TB
5. RHP José Fernández, MIA
6. RHP Shelby Miller, STL
7. RHP Gerrit Cole, PIT
8. SS Xander Bogaerts, BOS
9. 3B Miguel Sanó, MIN
10. OF Byron Buxton, MIN
2012: OF Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals
8 of 10
Grade: A+
In what would be his only full season in the minors leagues in 2011, Bryce Harper hit .297/.393/.501 with 24 doubles, 17 home runs, 58 RBI and 26 steals in 109 games between Single-A and Double-A.
He then played in the Arizona Fall League to close out the year, posting a .333/.400/.634 line with six doubles, six home runs and 26 RBI in 25 games to solidify his standing as baseball's No. 1 prospect for a second straight year.
After 21 games at Triple-A to open the 2012 campaign, he made his MLB debut on April 28, and he went on to hit .270/.340/.477 with 26 doubles, nine triples, 22 home runs, 18 steals and 5.2 WAR in 139 games. That set the foundation for a career that is now on a Hall of Fame trajectory.
1. OF Bryce Harper, WAS
2. LHP Matt Moore, TB
3. OF Mike Trout, LAA
4. RHP Yu Darvish, TEX
5. RHP Julio Teherán, ATL
6. C Jesús Montero, SEA
7. SS Jurickson Profar, TEX
8. RHP Shelby Miller, STL
9. RHP Trevor Bauer, ARI
10. RHP Dylan Bundy, BAL
2011: OF Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals
9 of 10
Grade: A+
It was a no-brainer to slot Bryce Harper in the No. 1 spot on Top 100 prospect lists heading into the 2012 season, but it took a bit more of a leap of faith to give him the top spot ahead of the 2011 campaign.
Heading into 2011, his only professional experience came during a brief stint in the Arizona Fall League after going No. 1 overall in the 2010 draft, though he did hit .343/.410/.629 with six extra-base hits in nine games as one of the youngest players in AFL history.
Harper played just once collegiate season at the College of Southern Nevada after leaving high school early and getting his GED, and he hit .443 with a .526 on-base percentage while tallying 31 home runs and 98 RBI in 66 games to win Golden Spikes honors and solidify his status as one of the most hyped prospects in MLB history.
1. OF Bryce Harper, WAS
2. OF Mike Trout, LAA
3. C Jesús Montero, NYY
4. OF Dominic Brown, PHI
5. RHP Julio Teherán, ATL
6. RHP Jeremy Hellickson, TB
7. LHP Aroldis Chapman, CIN
8. 1B Eric Hosmer, KC
9. 3B Mike Moustakas, KC
10. OF Wil Myers, KC
2010: OF Jason Heyward, Atlanta Braves
10 of 10
Grade: B
How hyped was Jason Heyward coming out of Henry County High School in Georgia?
"Heyward has as much upside as any player in the draft. He possesses a rare blend of strong tools and feel for all phases of the game. He draws physical comparisons to Fred McGriff, while his tools are similar to Willie McCovey's and his approach is comparable to Frank Thomas," read his predraft scouting report at Baseball America.
He raked every step of the way in the minors, hitting .323/.408/.555 with 25 doubles, 17 home runs and 63 RBI in 99 games across three levels in 2009 to open the following season as baseball's top prospect.
He made his MLB debut on Opening Day in 2010 and went 2-for-4 with one home run and four RBI, setting the hype train in motion. He went on to post a 131 OPS+ with 29 doubles, 18 home runs, 72 RBI and 11 steals in a 6.4-WAR rookie season, finishing runner-up to Buster Posey in NL Rookie of the Year voting. That ended up being the best season of his career offensively, but he has racked up 40.7 WAR and won five Gold Glove Awards in 14 seasons.
1. OF Jason Heyward, ATL
2. RHP Stephen Strasburg, WAS
3. OF Giancarlo Stanton, MIA
4. C Jesús Montero, NYY
5. LHP Brian Matusz, BAL
6. OF Desmond Jennings, TB
7. C Buster Posey, SF
8. 3B Pedro Álvarez, PIT
9. RHP Neftali Feliz, TEX
10. C Carlos Santana, CLE
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