Biggest Potential Busts of the 2023-24 MLB Free-Agency Class
Every MLB executive dreams of making a transaction in the offseason that helps to put their team on a parade float in late-October. But they probably spend as much time worrying about offering a major free-agent deal that could end up as one of the worst in the sport.
Being afraid of signing a player who turns into a free-agent bust is why we see so many accomplished players still available in free agency in mid-February.
Cody Bellinger is a former NL Rookie of the Year, MVP and World Series champion, and he is coming off of an excellent rebound season with the Chicago Cubs. He was looking for $200 million in free agency, but there are enough red flags that he's still available on the open market in mid-February.
The 28-year-old slashed .307/.356/.525 with an .881 OPS for the Cubs in 2023, but that came after a .203/.272/.376 record with a .648 OPS between 2020 and 2022, ultimately culminating in the Los Angeles Dodgers non-tendering him.
It's also slightly concerning that Bellinger posted just a 29.2 hard-hit percentage in 2023, a drastic decrease from the 49.2 mark in his NL MVP season of 2019.
Still only 28 and with tremendous positional flexibility, there is plenty to like about Bellinger as a free agent. But there's enough skepticism about how a long-term deal will play out with him that he hasn't yet signed.
While executives continue to ponder how a long-term deal with Bellinger would age, here's a look at some contracts that have already been signed in free agency this offseason that have bust potential.
RHP Craig Kimbrel, Baltimore Orioles
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Contract: One year, $12 million with $13 million club option for 2025
Age in 2024 Season: 36
2023 Stats: 8-6, 23 SV, 3.26 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 94 K's, 1.1 WAR, 69 IP
For much of Craig Kimbrel's lone season in Philadelphia, he was pretty effective, helping the Phillies overcome two injured list stints by José Alvarado and a disappointing campaign from Seranthony Domínguez.
The 71 appearances and 69 innings he logged in 2023 were both his highest single-season totals since he won NL Rookie of the Year with the Atlanta Braves in 2011.
The heavy workload caught up with Kimbrel in the postseason, though, as he melted down in Games 3 and 4 of the NLCS, contributing to the Phillies blowing a 2-0 series lead over the Arizona Diamondbacks. He was jeered as he trotted to the mound at Citizens Bank Park in Game 6 of the NLCS, he and didn't seem to think he was entirely undeserving of the reception.
Despite a brutal postseason closing the door on the possibility of the 35-year-old returning to Philadelphia for a second campaign, he actually made out well in free agency. The Orioles—winners of 101 games and the AL East title in 2023—are counting on him to be their closer.
The problem is, there are some warning signs that this may not play out well for O's general manager Mike Elias. Kimbrel had a ridiculous workload in 2023, and given that he'll turn 36 in May, you worry about what carryover affect that may have.
He also has a 4.50 career postseason ERA, so even if he is reliable in the regular season, an ugly postseason will likely come to define his time in Baltimore, as it did in Philadelphia.
Kimbrel will enter 2024 with 417 career saves, eighth in MLB history. But one of the greatest relievers the sport has seen will have a difficult job at this stage of his career replacing Félix Bautista, who is expected to miss the entirety of the 2024 season as he recovers from Tommy John surgery.
RHP Jordan Hicks, San Francisco Giants
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Contract: Four years, $44 million
Age in 2024 Season: 27
2023 Stats: 3-9, 3.29 ERA, 3.22 FIP, 81 K's, 1.1 WAR, 65 2/3 IP
Jordan Hicks has averaged 100.8 mph on his fastball in his career, making him one of the hardest throwers the sport has known.
While he hasn't necessarily turned that into a string of elite seasons—he has a 3.85 ERA and 3.66 FIP in his career—teams will always be intrigued by someone capable of throwing that hard.
So, it isn't surprising that after a relatively strong season split between the St. Louis Cardinals and Toronto Blue Jays, Hicks was coveted in free agency.
What is surprising, though, is that the Giants gave him a four-year, $44 million deal to be a starting pitcher, rather than to be used out of the bullpen.
Of Hicks' 187 career MLB appearances, 179 have come out of the bullpen. He did make eight starts for the Cardinals in 2022, posting a 5.47 ERA before returning to the bullpen.
Perhaps the Giants will be able to harness his incredible velocity and turn him into an effective starter. But on the surface, it comes off as president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and the Giants trying to seem like the smartest organization in the room.
That's not necessarily saying Hicks won't be an effective pitcher for San Francisco, because if things don't work out as a starter, he can be moved to a bullpen that already includes Camilo Doval, Tyler Rogers and Taylor Rogers.
But if Hicks doesn't prove to be effective as a starting pitcher, the Giants rotation will be even thinner than it already appears to be.
RHP Robert Stephenson, Los Angeles Angels
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Contract: Three years, $33 million
Age in 2024 Season: 31
2023 Stats: 3-4, 3.10 ERA, 3.22 FIP, 77 strikeouts, 0.9 WAR, 52 1/3 IP
Relievers are hard to project from a year-to-year basis, particularly when they change organizations, as Robert Stephenson did this offseason.
There's no doubt he was lights-out after joining the Tampa Bay Rays in a trade from the Pittsburgh Pirates last June. Across 42 games for the Rays, he posted a 2.35 ERA and 2.45 FIP, becoming one of the best options out of Kevin Cash's bullpen.
However, there's a reason the Pirates were willing to trade the 30-year-old well before the trade deadline: He hadn't been pitching well for them. He was 0-3 with a 5.14 ERA in 18 games for them in 2023.
In 249 career relief appearances, Stephenson has a 4.59 ERA. Clearly, the Rays tapped into something, having him use his cutter 59.7 percent of the time after acquiring him.
However, given both his track record prior to arriving in Tampa Bay and that he's no longer employed by the Rays, it's fair to be a bit skeptical about Stephenson's ability to replicate what he did in the second half of the 2023 season.
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DH/C Mitch Garver, Seattle Mariners
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Contract: Two years, $24 million with $12 million mutual option for 2026
Age in 2024 Season: 33
2023 Stats: .270/.370/.500, 19 HRs, 50 RBI, 44 BB, .870 OPS, 2.1 WAR
Mitch Garver helped the Texas Rangers to win their first World Series title in 2023, homering 19 times in just 296 at-bats in the regular season and then adding 14 RBI in the playoff run.
The problem is the 33-year-old has appeared in more than 100 games just once in his career (2018), and the Mariners are counting on him to be one of the big boppers in a lineup that subtracted Eugenio Suárez and Teoscar Hernández this offseason.
Garver has a lengthy injury history, which limited him to 141 of a possible 324 games over the last two seasons. The natural catcher should benefit from not having to do much catching in Seattle because of the presence of Cal Raleigh.
But if the Mariners signed Garver to primarily be a DH—as he was for the Rangers a year ago—it's kind of uninspiring. Wouldn't any of Jorge Soler, Rhys Hoskins or J.D. Martinez have given better production? They also all have better histories of staying healthy.
What's possible is that none of the other DH types available on the open market wanted to play 81 games a season at T-Mobile Park, after watching Hernández post a .643 OPS in home games during his contract year.
And so, president of baseball operations Jerry DiPoto signed the best option willing to join the Mariners, a player with excellent pop as a catcher who's struggled to stay healthy and is less remarkable offensively if he isn't behind the plate.
RHP Lucas Giolito, Boston Red Sox
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Contract: Two years, $38.5 million with player opt-out available after 2024 and $14 million vesting option for 2026
Age in 2024 Season: 29
2023 Stats: 8-15, 4.88 ERA, 5.27 FIP, 204 K's, 1.0 WAR, 184 1/3 IP
It's not that there isn't an argument for taking a flier on trying to resurrect Lucas Giolito's career, but given that Boston ownership has inexplicably started pitching pennies in recent years, the pitching-desperate Red Sox were a peculiar landing spot for the former All-Star.
The 29-year-old had a disastrous contract year, splitting the 2023 campaign between the Chicago White Sox, Los Angeles Angels and Cleveland Guardians.
He gave up an American League-leading 41 home runs, with three teams unable to stop the bleeding. A staggering 21 home runs surrendered by Giolito came over 12 starts between the Angels and Guardians.
To his credit, Giolito did manage to log over 180 innings in 2023. There is a prior track record of success, as he finished seventh in WAR among all starting pitchers between 2019 and 2021. And given that his previous career high of home runs surrendered in a season prior to 2023 was 27, he's probably due for some positive regression in 2024.
Over the last two seasons, Giolito is 19-24 with a 4.89 ERA and 4.70 FIP. It would have been one thing for a team like the Philadelphia Phillies—who have two establishes aces atop their rotation in Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola—to take a risk on him, hoping he can recapture the top-of-the-rotation form he once flashed.
The Red Sox are, essentially, counting on Giolito to be their ace, with ZiPS projecting that the four other starters in their rotation will finish 2024 with ERAs at 4.28 or higher.
In the event Giolito does bounce back in 2024, he's going to opt out and become a free agent again next winter. And if he delivers middling or poor results, the Red Sox will still be without a front-line starter and stuck paying him $19 million in 2025, a large amount for a franchise suddenly operating like it isn't a major-market team.
LHP Sean Manaea, New York Mets
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Contract: Two years, $28 million
Age in 2024 Season: 32
2023 Stats: 7-6, 4.44 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 128 K's, 1.1 WAR, 117 2/3 IP
Not long ago, Sean Manaea looked like one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball. Across 179.1 innings pitched for the 2021 Oakland Athletics, he went 11-10 with a 3.91 ERA, 3.66 FIP and 3.3 WAR.
However, over the last two seasons—spent with the San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants, respectively—the lefty has a 4.73 ERA and 4.26 FIP to show for 67 appearances, 38 of which were starts.
The Mets plan to use Manaea in their starting rotation, and if he's able to throw 150-plus innings for them in 2024, there's certainly value in that. The question is whether it's worth $14 million per year and a multi-year commitment.
The St. Louis Cardinals signed an innings-eater of their own this offseason in Kyle Gibson to a one-year, $13 million deal. Granted, he is 36, and Manaea recently turned 32. But while Gibson is hardly a threat to win a Cy Young Award, he has logged 160 or more innings on seven occasions in his career, including 192 for the Orioles a year ago. Manaea recorded 117.2 innings a year ago, making more appearances out of the bullpen than as a starter.
If the Mets are able to recapture the version of Manaea that pitched for the A's, then we'll be left to eat crow. But the 2022-2023 version of him isn't worth $14 million per season, nor a multi-year commitment. And he could end up being a very expensive long-man if things don't go well in the starting rotation this season.
LHP James Paxton, Los Angeles Dodgers
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Contract: One year, $7 million
Age in 2024 Season: 35
2023 Stats: 7-5, 4.50 ERA, 4.68 FIP, 101 K's, 1.0 WAR, 96 IP
With the additions of Shohei Ohtani and Teoscar Hernández, the Dodgers may have assembled one of the greatest lineups in MLB history, considering manager Dave Roberts already had future Hall of Famers Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman at his disposal.
But Ohtani and Tony Gonsolin won't pitch in 2024, and it's hardly certain Dustin May will either. There are legitimate questions about just how much of a workload the Dodgers can expect from the trio of Walker Buehler, Tyler Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw in 2024.
So, while the Dodgers employ a ton of talented arms, it's going to take a village to get through the regular season.
The strategy of having eight or nine guys you are comfortable with filling one of the five rotation spots during the season isn't a bad one. The problem is if you're replacing a starter that either is currently injured or has a history of getting injured. Ideally, you have someone who can be relied on consistently to take the ball every five days. That's not James Paxton.
The 35-year-old made 19 starts and logged 96 innings for the Boston Red Sox in 2023, his highest totals since 2019. He's a veteran of Tommy John surgery, and he had IL stints with both a right hamstring strain and right knee inflammation last season.
Concerns about that knee led to what was initially supposed to be a one-year, $11 million deal with L.A. getting amended to a $7 million pact with additional incentives.
A year ago, Paxton went 5-1 with a 2.73 ERA in 10 starts prior to the All-Star break. After the midsummer classic, though, his numbers plummeted—probably at least in part because of the aforementioned knee issue—as he posted a 6.98 ERA in 10 starts.
Clearly, money isn't an issue for the Dodgers. But finding healthy arms beyond Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Bobby Miller will be, and it's hard to feel confident that a 35-year-old with an extensive injury history is going to be a solution to that problem.
RHP Lance Lynn, St. Louis Cardinals
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Contract: One year, $11 million with $11 million club option for 2025
Age in 2024 Season: 37
2023 Stats: 13-11, 5.73 ERA, 5.53 FIP, 191 K's, 0.5 WAR, 183 2/3 IP
It would be a cool story if Lance Lynn returns to the Cardinals—the team he spent the first six seasons of his career with—and has a renaissance. But it's fair to be skeptical of a happy ending after how he looked a year ago.
Across 119.2 innings with the Chicago White Sox in 2023, the 36-year-old posted an unsightly 6.47 ERA and 5.19 FIP. There was some thought he could benefit from being inserted into a pennant race, but in 11 starts with the Dodgers after a July trade, he posted a 4.36 ERA and 6.16 FIP. Between the White Sox and L.A., he surrendered an MLB-worst 44 home runs.
Nonetheless, Lynn rejoined the Cardinals this offseason, part of a busy offseason that also saw them sign Sonny Gray and Gibson. The average age in the starting rotation for St. Louis is 34.6, with Lynn the elder statesman.
It wasn't long ago that he was one of the better pitchers in the sport, as he went 41-27 with a 3.42 ERA and 14.4 WAR—the seventh-best mark among all qualified starters—for the Texas Rangers and White Sox between 2019 and 2022. If he can regain that form in 2024, $11 million this season and another $11 million if the 2025 club option is exercised will prove to be very team-friendly.
Yet Lynn will turn 37 in May, and considering the Dodgers couldn't help improve his results last year suggests he's just hit a wall.
We're not suggesting Gray wasn't a nice addition for the Cardinals, but Lynn was part of an offseason that felt a bit quantity-over-quality for them.
1B Rowdy Tellez, Pittsburgh Pirates
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Contract: One year, $3.2 million
Age in 2024 Season: 29
2023 Stats: .215/.291/.376, 13 HR, 47 RBI, 35 BB, .667 OPS, -0.9 WAR
Rowdy Tellez homered 35 times and posted a .767 OPS for the Milwaukee Brewers in 2022, so $3.2 million is definitely fair market value for him as the Pirates bank on a bounce-back campaign.
But for a Pittsburgh team that was uncharacteristically active this offseason, there's a real chance Tellez proves to be a dud as the Pirates try to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2015.
Not only did Tellez struggle enough offensively in 2023 for the Brewers to non-tender him in the offseason, but he also has minus-13 defensive runs saved and minus-19 outs above average at first base in his career. In Pittsburgh, though, he likely won't have a ton of options to DH with franchise icon Andrew McCutchen back for another season.
Who should the Brewers have signed to play first base? Well, consider how they operated with Tellez over the last 12 months. Last summer, they acquired Carlos Santana from the Pirates to replace a struggling Tellez.
This offseason, after non-tendering Tellez, Milwaukee signed Hoskins. Even in his age-38 season, Santana likely has a higher floor than Tellez, and he only signed for $5.25 million with the Minnesota Twins.
Hoskins would have taken a much larger investment by the Pirates, and they'll probably see why this season as he plays for the division-rival Brewers instead.
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