Predicting 2023-24 MLB Offseason Decisions That Will Crash and Burn
For a while, everyone was waiting for action in this MLB offseason. It seemed to move at a snail's pace, starting with the winter meetings that produced little to no information, aside from the obvious of waiting for Shohei Ohtani's decision.
Now, it is safe to say that we've got action. Enough has happened for teams to have shown their hand for how they plan to approach this 2024 season.
The number of star players still without a team has reduced drastically. Nearly every contender has done something of significance.
Unfortunately, not every move is going to work. With that in mind, let's take a look at eight of them, and predict which decisions will crash and burn.
Jordan Hicks to the San Francisco Giants
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Not only are the San Francisco Giants paying Hicks $44 million over four years, but they also are surprisingly converting him into a full-time starter from mostly a reliever. At least at the start.
The contract has incentives to allow Hicks to make more if he pitches starter's innings, which is the way president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi has said he envisions Hicks being used.
The 27-year-old has only eight career starts under his belt. Last season was Hicks' best of his big league career after posting a 2.53 ERA in 25 games for the Toronto Blue Jays.
But with the St.Louis Cardinals, Hicks had Tommy John surgery in 2019 and then opted out of the COVID-shortened 2020 season because of his Type 1 diabetes diagnosis, and spent significant time on the injured list the following two seasons.
He has the talent that makes him intriguing as a starter, but nothing about Hicks' MLB record so far shows he is a reliable rotation piece.
Craig Kimbrel to the Baltimore Orioles
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It was really odd to see the Baltimore Orioles sign Craig Kimbrel to address their bullpen, which was one of the best in baseball last season, as it's their starting pitching that leaves far more to be desired.
Kimbrel brings a presence from name recognition alone. But are we certain he is still a premier closer? The 35-year-old showed last season with the Philadelphia Phillies he can still be solid, posting a 3.26 ERA and 23 saves in 71 appearances. But he's far from his former dominant self of a decade ago. Or even three years ago.
Paying him $12 million in 2024 with a club option for 2025 is low-risk, yet the question is whether this is money that could have been better spent.
This is a penny-pinching team with a realistic World Series window, and its rotation is Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, John Means, Dean Kremer and Tyler Wells. That's not going to get it done against the Texas Rangers, Houston Astros and New York Yankees of the world. One injury could really derail things.
The Orioles needed to figure out how to take that next step from warm and fuzzy turnaround story to legitimate contender.
Seattle Mariners' Overhaul
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There is an important question for the Seattle Mariners that many teams find themselves asking at some point after spending on a roster proves not to be quite good enough.
Are they still trying to build a serious, competitive team, or is it more about making payroll decisions?
It was just a year ago when the Mariners were thought to be on the rise. They had broken the sport's longest postseason drought in 2022 while appearing to emerge as a threat in the AL West.
One disappointing season later, and it looks like a team without clear direction.
Teoscar Hernández signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Mariners traded Eugenio Suarez to the Arizona Diamondbacks in November. They sent Jarred Kelenic, Marco Gonzales and Evan White to Atlanta.
They sent Robbie Ray to the San Francisco Giants just two years after signing the former Cy Young winner, in exchange for their own former outfielder Mitch Haniger.
Where is all of this headed? It's hard to really see the vision outside of slashing the payroll. And perhaps that was the main goal all along.
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Lucas Giolito to the Boston Red Sox
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Lucas Giolito could make up to $38.5 million over the next two seasons if he exercises his player option for 2025. It would take a phenomenal season for him not to.
The concern has to be that the Boston Red Sox signed more of an innings eater than a quality pitcher in an offseason when significantly upgrading the rotation was a must. Giolito's going to give you length, having thrown at least 160 innings in each of the last three seasons. He did so in 2018 and 2019, too.
But what about that dip in fastball velocity and the declining effectiveness of what used to be a deadly changeup?
Giolito had a three-year stretch in which he was one of the top starters in the AL. From 2019 to 2021, Giolito held opponents to a .207 average, had a 3.47 ERA and went 29-21 over 72 starts.
He seemed fine before the Chicago White Sox dealt him to the Los Angeles Angels ahead of the trade deadline. For the Angels, his ERA was 6.89 over six starts before they placed him on waivers. He later posted a 7.04 ERA in six starts for the Cleveland Guardians.
If Giolito doesn't find it, the Red Sox rotation is no better off than it was with an oft-injured Chris Sale, when they finished last in a competitive AL East.
Chris Sale to Atlanta
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If there wasn't so much at stake for Atlanta, then maybe this one would be less cringy. Atlanta appeared to be the best team in baseball last year but could not capitalize on a phenomenal regular season.
The offseason does not require them to address a ton of weaknesses. They don't really have them. All Atlanta can really do is turn it up a notch to increase the chances of capturing another World Series.
Adding Sale to the mix, with the expectation he will be anything close to the seven-time All-Star, two-time AL strikeout leader and one-time World Series champion, is fool's gold.
In 20 games last year, the 34-year-old went 6-11 with a 4.40 ERA and career-worst 3.80 FIP in 102.2 innings pitched.
In order to get Sale, Atlanta had to part with infield prospect Vaughn Grissom, who has intriguing potential at shortstop. The Red Sox sent $17 million to Atlanta in the trade, essentially washing his 2024 salary, but the team signed him to a two-year, $38 million extension (club option in 2026). That's quite the price to pay for a soon-to-be 35-year-old pitcher who you might eventually move to the bullpen.
Josh Hader to the Houston Astros
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The Houston Astros had holes to fill in their bullpen this offseason with Hector Neris, Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek becoming free agents.
Adding Josh Hader, the most productive reliever of the last six years, undoubtedly addresses the need.
This move crashes and burns because it's close to $100 million for a player who really does not separate the Astros from their competition. The bullpen was not a weakness for Houston, and congratulations, because it remains that way.
The Astros already had an established closer in Ryan Pressly and an emerging setup man, or potential closer of the future, in Bryan Abreu.
It's an expensive way to maintain the status quo—or to upgrade it ever so slightly.
The Astros still have a major question mark in center field, an ace on the wrong side of 40 in Justin Verlander, an All-Star starter who can sometimes be volatile in Framber Valdez and uncertain futures for stars such as Alex Bregman, who will be a free agent after 2024.
St. Louis Cardinals Signing Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson
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On the surface, the St. Louis Cardinals signed a pair of accomplished pitchers in their mid-30s to give the team quality innings.
Beyond that, it's hard to ignore that both starters appear to have seen their better days. Lance Lynn signed an incentivized deal that could turn $11 million into $14 million in 2024. Kyle Gibson's deal is worth $13 million.
These are not debilitating figures, and the Cardinals could easily punt if these deals fail. It's tough to rely on Lynn, turning 37 in May, to improve much from his 5.73 ERA in 32 starts with the Chicago White Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers last season.
Lynn, to be fair, was better with the Dodgers. He went 7-2 with a 4.36 ERA in 11 regular-season starts, which is the version of Lynn the Cardinals hope they are getting.
No AL pitcher gave up more than Gibson's 198 hits last season with the Baltimore Orioles. Over 33 starts, he went 15-9 with a 4.73 ERA. For perspective, the Orioles have rotation needs and elected not to bring him back.
Juan Soto to the New York Yankees
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We've done this before, where a generational talent like Juan Soto gets traded to a star-studded roster, while the expectations for both the player and team skyrocket.
It happened when the Washington Nationals traded Soto and Josh Bell to the San Diego Padres in 2022. It's happening now with Soto being sent from San Diego to the New York Yankees.
The visual is fascinating enough. The Yankees desperately needed another left-handed bat, and an upgrade to the outfield besides Aaron Judge.
If Soto struggles early, the way he did with the Padres, will Yankees fans have the patience to endure it? How will the media treat Soto, given the hype and expectations?
He is talented enough to make this a non-issue. But what is a star joining an iconic franchise without drama?
It's a contract year for Soto. The Yankees collectively, and Soto individually, have underachieved the past couple of years. Things are going to get tight in the Bronx at some point. How will they respond?
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