Hall of Very Good: Ranking the MLB Players Likely to Get Bounced off 2024 HOF Ballot
The 2024 Baseball Hall of Fame voting results will be revealed on Tuesday, and while Adrián Beltré, Joe Mauer, Todd Helton and Billy Wagner are all currently trending toward induction, there are 22 other players on the ballot.
From that group, there are nine guys currently projected to fall short of the five percent voting support necessary to stick around for another year, according to the invaluable Hall of Fame voting tracker from Ryan Thibodaux. Gary Sheffield is also in danger of joining them if he fails to reach 75 percent in his 10th and final year of eligibility.
Before we dive into our predictions for how the voting will play out early next week, let's shine some light on the players who are on pace to be bounced from the ballot.
Ahead, those 10 guys have been ranked based on their Hall of Fame credentials, and each of them has a compelling case for a place in the Hall of Very Good.
Hanging On By a Thread
1 of 11
SP Mark Buehrle
With 14 straight seasons of 200-plus innings, Buehrle was a reliable workhorse throughout his career, racking up 214 wins with a 3.81 ERA in 3,283.1 innings. He peaked at 11.0 percent of the vote in his first year on the ballot in 2021 but has not made any headway toward increasing that total.
RP Francisco Rodríguez
K-Rod holds the single-season record with 62 saves in 2008, and he also ranks fourth on the all-time list with 437 career saves. With a 2.86 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 10.5 K/9 over 16 seasons, and six seasons with at least 40 saves, he was one of the elite closers of his era.
SS Omar Vizquel
Vizquel is one of the best defensive shortstops in MLB history, but his full body of work is simply not Hall of Fame worthy, most notably a middling 82 OPS+ over 12,013 career plate appearances. He was all the way up to 52.6 percent of the vote in 2020, but allegations of sexual harassment by a former bat boy during his time as a coach in the Chicago White Sox minor-league system has sent his support plummeting.
3B David Wright
Over his first six full seasons, Wright hit .306/.387/.515 for a 137 OPS+ while averaging 42 doubles, 27 home runs, 108 RBI, 103 runs scored, 23 steals and 4.8 WAR per 162 games. He ended up playing only 77 games after his age-31 season before spinal stenosis ended his career, derailing his Hall of Fame trajectory.
10. SP James Shields
2 of 11
Stats: 405 GS, 145-139, 4.01 ERA (102 ERA+), 1.27 WHIP, 2,234 K, 2,616.0 IP
Accolades: 1x All-Star
WAR: 30.7
A workhorse staff ace for the Tampa Bay Rays and Kansas City Royals, James Shields made at least 30 starts in 10 consecutive seasons during his prime, tallying 22 complete games during that span.
He peaked in 2011 when he finished 16-12 with a 2.82 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 225 strikeouts in 249.1 innings to finish third in AL Cy Young voting, and he was the ace on a Royals team that reached the World Series in 2014.
9. C/DH Victor Martinez
3 of 11
Stats: 1,973 G, 118 OPS+, .295/.360/.455, 2,153 H, 246 HR, 1,178 RBI, 7 SB
Accolades: 5x All-Star, 2x Silver Slugger
WAR: 32.0
One of baseball's best offensive catchers during his time in Cleveland before shifting to designated hitter later in his career, Victor Martinez was one of the best pure hitters in baseball during his prime.
He hit over .300 eight different times over 16 seasons, and finished runner-up in AL MVP voting in 2014 when he hit .335/.409/.565 for a 172 OPS+ with 33 doubles, 32 home runs and 103 RBI for a 90-win Detroit Tigers team.
.png?w=256)
8. 2B Brandon Phillips
4 of 11
Stats: 1,902 G, 95 OPS+, .275/.320/.420, 2,029 H, 211 HR, 951 RBI, 209 SB
Accolades: 3x All-Star, 4x Gold Glove, 1x Silver Slugger
WAR: 28.4
With 211 home runs and 209 steals over 17 seasons, Brandon Phillips is one of only seven second basemen in MLB history who are part of the 200/200 club, joining Roberto Alomar, José Altuve, Craig Biggio, Ian Kinsler, Joe Morgan and Ryne Sandberg,
He also won four Gold Glove Awards over a span of six years during his prime with the Cincinnati Reds, making him one of the best all-around players at his position.
7. SS José Reyes
5 of 11
Stats: 1,877 G, 103 OPS+, .283/.334/.427, 2,138 H, 145 HR, 719 RBI, 517 SB
Accolades: 4x All-Star, 1x Silver Slugger
WAR: 37.4
José Reyes burst onto the scene as a 19-year-old rookie in 2003, and he quickly developed into one of the league's top speed threats, stealing 60-plus bases in three straight seasons in 2005, 2006 and 2007.
He won the NL batting title during a contract year in 2011 when he hit .337/.384/.493 in a 4.6-WAR season, and he parlayed that performance into a nine-figure payday from the Miami Marlins in free agency. He was a 27.9-WAR player when he hit the open market as a 28-year-old, but battled injuries over the second half of his career, averaging just 118 games per year over his final eight seasons.
6. OF José Bautista
6 of 11
Stats: 1,798 G, 124 OPS+, .247/.361/.475, 1,496 H, 344 HR, 975 RBI, 70 SB
Accolades: 6x All-Star, 3x Silver Slugger
WAR: 36.7
A late-blooming journeyman who didn't truly break out until his age-29 season, José Bautista posted a 164 OPS+ with an AL-leading 54 home runs and 124 RBI during the 2010 season to finish fourth in AL MVP voting.
That kicked off an impressive six-year stretch in which he posted a 156 OPS+ while averaging 38 home runs, 97 RBI and 5.9 WAR. His peak was relatively short, but he ranks 77th all-time with 17.6 at-bats per home run for his career.
5. 1B Adrián González
7 of 11
Stats: 1,929 G, 129 OPS+, .287/.358/.485, 2,050 H, 317 HR, 1,202 RBI, 6 SB
Accolades: 5x All-Star, 4x Gold Glove, 2x Silver Slugger
WAR: 43.5
Adrián González was traded twice before he fully broke out as a member of the San DIego Padres during the 2006 season, and that kicked off a 10-year stretch in which he hit .292/.366/.501 for a 137 OPS+ while averaging 37 doubles, 28 home runs and 103 RBI.
He tallied seven seasons with at least 100 RBI, serving as a key run-producer for the Los Angeles Dodgers into his mid-30s, and he eventually lived up to being the No. 1 overall pick in the 2000 draft.
4. SP Bartolo Colon
8 of 11
Stats: 552 GS, 247-188, 4.12 ERA (106 ERA+), 1.31 WHIP, 2,535 K, 3,461.2 IP
Accolades: 4x All-Star, 2005 AL Cy Young
WAR: 46.2
Bartolo Colon spent 21 seasons in the big leagues, making his final MLB appearance as a 45-year-old with the Texas Rangers in 2018. He played for 11 different teams in his career, spending his first six seasons in Cleveland before bouncing around.
He won 2005 AL Cy Young honors when he finished 21-8 with a 3.48 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 157 strikeouts in 222.2 innings. He ranks 51st all-time in wins (247) and 36th all-time in strikeouts (2,535) and was a fan favorite throughout his career.
3. OF Matt Holliday
9 of 11
Stats: 1,903 G, 132 OPS+, .299/.379/.510, 2,096 H, 316 HR, 1,220 RBI, 108 SB
Accolades: 7x All-Star, 4x Silver Slugger, 1x WS winner
WAR: 44.5
An All-American in baseball and football during his time at Stillwater HIgh School, Matt Holliday ended up going the baseball route and was selected in the seventh round of the 1998 draft by the Colorado Rockies.
He won the NL batting title in 2007 when he hit .340/.405/.607 while also leading the NL in hits (216), doubles (50), RBI (137) and total bases (386) en route to a runner-up finish in NL MVP voting. After five seasons in Colorado and a quick pit stop in Oakland, he joined the St. Louis Cardinals and became a perennial 20-homer, 100-RBI threat in the middle of the lineup.
2. OF Torii Hunter
10 of 11
Stats: 2,372 G, 110 OPS+, .277/.331/.461, 2,452 H, 353 HR, 1,391 RBI, 195 SB
Accolades: 5x All-Star, 9x Gold Glove, 2x Silver Slugger
WAR: 50.7
One of the best two-way outfielders in MLB history, Torii Hunter was arguably the best defensive player in baseball during his prime with the Minnesota Twins, and robbing Barry Bonds of a home run in the All-Star Game stands out as one of the most memorable moments of his career.
He ranks in the top 100 all-time in total bases (4,087, 82nd), doubles (498, 66th), home runs (353, 95th), RBI (1,391, 80th) and extra-base hits (890, 70th). His Hall of Fame support peaked at 9.5 percent during his first year of eligibility in 2021.
1. OF Gary Sheffield
11 of 11
Stats: 2,576 G, 140 OPS+, .292/.393/.514, 2,689 H, 509 HR, 1,676 RBI, 253 SB
Accolades: 9x All-Star, 5x Silver Slugger, 1x WS winner
WAR: 60.5
The first nine players on this list are in danger of falling off the ballot as a result of failing to receive the five percent support necessary to hang around for another year. In the case of Gary Sheffield, it's the 10-year eligibility limit that appears to have him destined for the Hall of Very Good.
One of the most feared sluggers of his era with a batting stance 90s kids everywhere emulated in their backyards, Sheffield checks plenty of Hall of Fame boxes with his 509 home runs and 1,676 RBI over a 22-year career.
However, his involvement in the BALCO scandal and admitted steroid use has thus far kept him on the outside looking in. After failing to crack 20 percent of the vote over his first five years on the ballot, he has been making some steady progress, peaking at 55 percent support in 2023. That's still a wide gap to make up in his final year on the ballot.
.png?w=480)
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
