Texans vs. Ravens: Updated Odds, Stat Predictions for 2024 AFC Divisional Game

The Baltimore Ravens were the NFL's best team this season.

As subjective as that sounds, the numbers don't leave much room for debate. No team topped Baltimore's win total (13). No one cleared its point differential (plus-203, either).

And yet, the top-seeded Ravens will have plenty to prove when they host the fourth-seeded Houston Texans on Saturday. That's because this Baltimore bunch has yet to enjoy any kind of playoff success with Lamar Jackson at the helm. The typically dynamic quarterback has gone just 1-3 in the postseason so far with four total touchdowns and seven turnovers in those outings.

Then again, it's not like Houston comes in with a stellar playoff record, either. The Texans have yet to advance beyond the Divisional Round in the history of their franchise, and last week was their first taste of postseason football since 2020. They also have a rookie quarterback (C.J. Stroud), a first-year head coach (DeMeco Ryans) and a first-year play-caller (Bobby Slowik).

The odds aren't in the Texans' favor here, but can they find a way around that? We'll dissect the matchup here with scheduling particulars, the latest line from DraftKings Sportsbook stat predictions.

• What: Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens | AFC Divisional Round
• When: Saturday, Jan 20. at 4:30 p.m. ET
• Spread: Ravens -9.5
• Over/under: 43.5

This heavyweight bout almost certainly features two award-winners. Jackson has all but secured the second MVP of his career, and C.J. Stroud seems the likely choice for Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Jackson has rewarded the Ravens for upgrading the offense around him. From the hiring of coordinator Todd Monken to the additions of playmakers like Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham Jr., Baltimore has given Jackson real tools to work with, and he's taken advantage of all of them. He's done a masterful job of taking what's available, which has manifested into career-highs in passing yards (3,678) and completion percentage (67.2).

He's hard enough to handle on his own, but he can be impossible to stop when his pass-catchers and ball-carriers get going, too. Speaking of which, his arsenal could be deeper than normal this weekend after Dalvin Cook's promotion to the active roster and the possible return of top-shelf tight end Mark Andrews.

For all of this gushing about the offense, it's worth noting that Baltimore might be even better on defense. The Ravens led the NFL this season in points (16.5 per game), sacks (60) and takeaways (31). They not only make plays, they prevent opponents from making many.

Why should the Texans bother showing up, then, right?

Well, their meteoric rise this season—they won three games in 2022—just might be sending out team-of-destiny vibes.

The playoffs are uncharted waters for this team, yet it just made mincemeat of the Cleveland Browns and their defense that yielded a league-best 270.2 yards per game this season. Houston scored a 45-14 victory in that contest, and while its defense contributed two pick-sixes, the offense did plenty to push up that point total. It could have been even worse, as 236 of Stroud's 274 yards and all three of his touchdowns came in the first half.

"C.J. is the reason why we're in this position," Ryans told reporters. "He's special, a special young man. Special player. Continues to shine no matter how big the moment is."

Stroud has engineered a debut season for the ages, but winning a road game over the Ravens is a different level of challenge. And as much as we'd like to call for chaos, we just can't see the Texans finding their way out of this round.

Jackson will shake off his previous playoff struggles while throwing for 275-plus yards, running for another 50-plus yards, tallying three-plus touchdowns and not turning the ball over. Flowers will lead the team in targets (six-plus) and receiving yards (90-plus) and catch at least one of Jackson's touchdown throws. Gus Edwards will rumble in for a score, because that's just what he does.

Stroud will do what he can to keep the Texans in it, but this Ravens' defense will eventually get the best of him. He's too good to totally implode, but he'll be under constant duress, leading to three-plus sacks and at least one interception.

This contest will be close through halftime and maybe even through three quarters, but Baltimore will wind up prevailing by more than a touchdown.

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