Ranking Guardians Closer Emmanuel Clase's Top 10 Landing Spots amid MLB Trade Rumors
Now that Josh Hader is spoken for, teams in need of an ace closer should think about calling the Cleveland Guardians about Emmanuel Clase.
The two-time All-Star has been a trade candidate for a while now, with ESPN's Jeff Passan first raising the possibility back on Dec. 1. Even then, though, the Guardians were more so "open to dealing" Clase than actively shopping him.
There hasn't been much activity in Clase's corner of the market since then. Only two teams have been linked to the 25-year-old, and one of those was in seemingly speculative fashion.
This may yet change, however. Because with the free-agent market for relievers beginning to dry up—in addition to Hader, Robert Stephenson and Aroldis Chapman have also signed in recent days—Clase could begin looking more attractive to teams in need of bullpen upgrades.
So, let's discuss Clase's trade value and then get to speculating on his best potential landing spots.
What Is Clase's Trade Value?
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If the Guardians don't end up trading Clase, it could simply be because they want to contend in 2024. Or, it could be because his value isn't quite at its zenith.
Clase went into last winter as arguably the best closer in baseball, with his two previous seasons having yielded a 1.33 ERA and 66 saves. But 2023 was more of a challenge. Though he led MLB in saves for the second year in a row, his ERA rose to 3.22 and he became only the second pitcher this century to blow 12 saves in a season.
There are other warning signs in Clase's under-the-hood metrics, including his strikeout rate and the average velocity on his cutter. As Davy Andrews of FanGraphs covered, there was also something up (or, more accurately, down) with Clase's release point last year.
Still, it's not as if Clase altogether stopped throwing triple-digit cutters in 2023. And if his issues can simply be traced back to a lower arm slot, the solution may be as simple as adjusting his mechanics so it goes back up.
Clase's appeal is only heightened by his contract. He's heading into the third season of a five-year, $20 million deal that comes with club options for 2027 and 2028 that max out at $13 million apiece.
Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors posited in December that the Guardians could leverage Clase into "multiple top-100 prospects and/or young MLB-ready players" in a trade. That sounds about right, and I personally wonder if the Guardians could specifically target power for an offense that ranked 29th and 30th in home runs in 2022 and 2023, respectively.
There are maybe only five truly practical fits for Clase out there. But for "you never know" purposes, I've stretched his list of hypothetical suitors to 10.
Note: 2023 relief pitching WAR is courtesy of Baseball Reference and 2024 projected closers are courtesy of RosterResource at FanGraphs, with farm system and prospect rankings courtesy of B/R's Joel Reuter.
10. San Diego Padres
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2023 Relief Pitcher WAR: 2.8 (22nd)
2024 Projected Closer: Robert Suarez
Truth be told, I barely convinced myself to include the Padres as a landing spot for Clase.
They've already done a deal with the Guardians involving relievers, after all, and Clase notably wasn't in it. They've since signed two more relief arms via $32.5 million worth of contracts for Yuki Matsui and Woo Suk Go, so their bullpen may be set.
But if the Padres would rather have someone more solid than Suarez inherit Hader's role in the ninth, they could surely do worse than Clase. And since he'll only earn $2.9 million this season, trading for him would hardly jeopardize San Diego's cost-cutting mission.
Trade Proposal: San Diego Padres get RHP Emmanuel Clase; Cleveland Guardians get INF Jake Cronenworth, SS Jackson Merrill
The Padres have seven top-100 prospects, but four are pitchers and another (Samuel Zavala) is an 18-year-old outfielder who's not close to cracking the majors. Which is to say another complication here is that they may not be an ideal trading partner for the Guardians.
The deal I've proposed, in which Cleveland would absorb Cronenworth's bad contract for the sake of landing MLB's No. 11 overall prospect, isn't so much a good idea as the best I've got. And I doubt the Padres would do it, even if Merrill is blocked by Xander Bogaerts.
9. Cincinnati Reds
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2023 Relief Pitcher WAR: 10.2 (2nd)
2024 Projected Closer: Alexis Díaz
This is another idea that should be taken with a big grain of salt, as it was earlier this month that Reds general manager Nick Krall more or less shot down the idea of making a big trade:
This was also before the Reds signed Brent Suter. With him aboard, the work they still wanted to do on their bullpen in early January may now be finished.
Yet when I look at the Reds, I see a team whose bullpen could be needed to pick up slack for a starting rotation that's high on potential but short on reliability. Last year is a cautionary tale, as Cincinnati's pen ran out of gas in the second half after a heavy workload in the first.
Trade Proposal: Cincinnati Reds get RHP Emmanuel Clase; Cleveland Guardians get 1B/3B Christian Encarnacion-Strand, SS Edwin Arroyo
In this deal, the Guardians would get MLB's No. 88 prospect (Arroyo) in addition to a hitter who, though probably slated for the Reds bench, showed real potential in 2023. Encarnacion-Strand had a 1.042 OPS at Triple-A and an .805 OPS in the majors.
But while it's a fair enough deal on paper, there's nonetheless a lingering question of whether the Reds need to go out of their way to get Clase now. They can afford to wait and see if the pen they have is good enough. If not, they can address it at the trade deadline.
8. St. Louis Cardinals
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2023 Relief Pitcher WAR: 2.5 (23rd)
2024 Projected Closer: Ryan Helsley
The Cardinals were a bad team from start to finish in 2023, but they would have been a better one if they had converted more than just 56 percent of their save opportunities.
More stability will be in store this year if Helsley can stay healthy after making only 33 appearances last season. But that would mean downplaying the possibility of further trouble with his forearm, which would be unnecessarily flippant.
Besides, the Cardinals bullpen could use another impact arm even if one takes Helsley's health for granted. Because of the four regular relievers who were above average for them in 2023 by way of ERA+, two weren't even around after the trade deadline.
Trade Proposal: St. Louis Cardinals get RHP Emmanuel Clase; Cleveland Guardians get OF Dylan Carlson, 1B/OF Alec Burleson
The Cardinals have more young hitters than they have regular at-bats for, with Carlson and Burleson representing the most notable examples of those who figure to miss out. The former looks ticketed for a reserve role, while the latter looks ticketed for the minors.
As a package for Clase, though, this is underwhelming. I'm demanding either Tink Hence (MLB's No. 31 prospect) or Masyn Winn (No. 36) if I'm the Guardians. And if I'm the Cardinals, I'm not parting with either for a pitcher who's more of a luxury than a necessity.
7. Arizona Diamondbacks
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2023 Relief Pitcher WAR: 3.3 (20th)
2024 Projected Closer: Paul Sewald
Say what you will about how Sewald performed in the World Series, but he changed Arizona's bullpen for the better after coming over from the Seattle Mariners last July.
The Diamondbacks nonetheless needed to strengthen said pen this winter. And whereas the offense has gotten Eugenio Suárez and their rotation has gotten Eduardo Rodriguez, the relief corps has been left untouched.
A trade for Clase would fix that, and there would be good cause to have him close games instead of Sewald. Clase is good at it, obviously, and Sewald tends to be slightly more dominant in non-save situations (.665 OPS) than in save situations (.680 OPS).
Trade Proposal: Arizona Diamondbacks get RHP Emmanuel Clase; Cleveland Guardians get SS Geraldo Perdomo, OF Druw Jones
There's probably no way the Guardians could get Jordan Lawlar, MLB's No. 9 prospect, for Clase. But given how banged up he's been since he went No. 2 in the 2022 draft, there's a faint air of expendability hanging over Jones even if he is still the No. 60 prospect in MLB.
From another perspective, however, the D-backs would be selling low on Jones. And even if they were willing to surrender Perdomo, he's a suboptimal target for Cleveland. He may have been an All-Star in 2023, but he's homered just 11 times in 303 career games.
6. New York Mets
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2023 Relief Pitcher WAR: 2.9 (21st)
2024 Projected Closer: Edwin Díaz
This season will mark Díaz's return to the mound after he missed 2023 recovering from that fluke ACL tear at the World Baseball Classic. As such, the Mets don't need a closer.
Yet they're still shopping for high-end relievers, with Andy Martino of SNY reporting that Hector Neris and Wandy Peralta are on the team's radar. A reunion with Adam Ottavino also remains a possibility.
Though Clase has yet to be linked to the Mets in any solid way, it's fun to imagine him teaming with Díaz to form an unrivaled late-inning duo. And since theirs is the No. 4 farm system in MLB, the Mets hypothetically have the talent to get something done.
Trade Proposal: New York Mets get RHP Emmanuel Clase; Cleveland Guardians get INF/OF Ronny Mauricio, OF/1B Ryan Clifford
It's hard to imagine the Mets parting with their No. 1 prospect, infielder Luisangel Acuña. Jett Williams and Drew Gilbert, meanwhile, don't have much power and are thus suboptimal fits for Cleveland.
Hence this package, which is centered on MLB's No. 75 (Mauricio) and No. 81 (Clifford) prospects. But while it makes for a decent offer on paper, neither player is going to make an impact in 2024. Clifford is too far from the majors, while Mauricio is in the early stages of recovering from an ACL tear that he sustained in December.
5. Philadelphia Phillies
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2023 Relief Pitcher WAR: 7.8 (3rd)
2024 Projected Closer: José Alvarado
Though things didn't end well for Craig Kimbrel in Philadelphia, it's still not ideal that he's since departed and has thus far gone unreplaced.
It's not for lack of trying that this is the case, however. The Phillies were tenuously linked to Hader before he signed with the Houston Astros, and more strongly linked to Jordan Hicks (here) and Robert Stephenson (here) before they also signed elsewhere.
This would indicate that the Phils aren't totally comfortable with handing Kimbrel's job to Alvarado. And if that is indeed the case, it's that much easier to imagine president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski adding a Clase trade to his extensive history of blockbusters.
Trade Proposal: Philadelphia Phillies get RHP Emmanuel Clase; Cleveland Guardians get OF Justin Crawford, 3B Aidan Miller
Though the Phillies' two best prospects are both pitchers, Crawford and Miller rank within MLB's top 100 at No. 47 and No. 91, respectively. So if the Guardians' goal is to turn Clase into multiple top-100 types, this package could work.
Of course, it's not that simple. Though Miller has power, Crawford is more of a speed guy in the mold of his father, Carl. And since neither has made it out of the low minors yet, they wouldn't be in play to help the Guardians win this year anyway.
4. Texas Rangers
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2023 Relief Pitcher WAR: 0.0 (28th)
2024 Projected Closer: José Leclerc
It didn't stop them from winning the World Series, but the Rangers bullpen was the opposite of good for most of 2023. Only the Colorado Rockies matched their save conversion rate of 48 percent.
It's thus not surprising that the Rangers have often been mentioned in conjunction with several of the winter's top relief targets, including Hader (here), Stephenson (here) and, most recently, the still-available Neris:
If the Rangers' search for a reliever eventually leads them to Clase, a trade would prove that you really can go home again. He started his pro career in the Rangers organization before he went to Cleveland as part of the Corey Kluber trade in 2019.
Trade Proposal: Texas Rangers get RHP Emmanuel Clase; Cleveland Guardians get INF Ezequiel Duran, SS Sebastian Walcott
In Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford, the Rangers have two elite outfield prospects who rank at No. 3 and No. 14 for MLB overall. But it's hard to imagine Texas surrendering either of them, and Carter least of all coming off his star-making turn last October.
The 17-year-old Walcott is therefore the likely best offensive prospect the Guardians could hope to get from the Rangers, and he's probably years away from the majors. Yet as a 24-year-old who's already shown promise in The Show, it's not out of the question that Duran would be a suitable centerpiece from Cleveland's perspective.
3. New York Yankees
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2023 Relief Pitcher WAR: 10.5 (1st)
2024 Projected Closer: Clay Holmes
The Yankees arguably don't need to upgrade their bullpen after what it did last year. Tell them that, though, and they'd probably disagree.
They're indeed known to be on the lookout for a big-time relief arm. They were another team linked to Hader before he landed in Houston. They've also been linked to Stephenson and Neris.
It's hard not to wonder if the Yankees could turn to Clase, who would be an upgrade even over Holmes in the ninth inning. He'd certainly be no worse than an insurance policy, and Holmes' tendency to fade in the second half is one reason to believe one of those is needed.
Trade Proposal: New York Yankees get RHP Emmanuel Clase; Cleveland Guardians get OF Spencer Jones, OF Everson Pereira
It seems as if opinions on Yankees prospects can vary, though I may just be saying that because both Jones (No. 46) and Pereira (No. 67) appear in Baseball America's top 100 even though neither is anywhere to be found in Reuter's top 100.
If the Guardians agree with the former, then such a package could be enough to sway them on Clase. Pereira had a .921 OPS in the high minors before he debuted with the Yankees, while Jones is a candidate to debut this year after making it to Double-A last year.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
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2023 Relief Pitcher WAR: 6.2 (T-10th)
2024 Projected Closer: Evan Phillips
As you may have heard, the Dodgers have been busy adding star power to their lineup and rotation this winter. Their bullpen, on the other hand, has yet to get any new toys.
Yet it bears noting that the Dodgers were in on Hader for a second there, and also that a former GM says not to "be surprised" if they make a move for Clase. Take it away, Jim Bowden:
As good as Phillips has been over the last two years, Clase would represent an upgrade in the closer's role. At the least, he'd fill the spot left vacant by Ryan Brasier, who was instrumental in getting the Dodger bullpen's ERA down to 2.26 in the second half of 2023.
Trade Proposal: Los Angeles Dodgers get RHP Emmanuel Clase; Cleveland Guardians get C/1B Dalton Rushing, OF Andy Pages
With Michael Busch out of the picture, Rushing (No. 71) is one of only two Dodgers prospects left in Reuter's top 100. Pages occasionally appears in other top 100 lists, however, including just last week in the No. 96 slot for Baseball America.
Yet the Guardians could do better than this package. Rushing has only made it as far as Single-A, and thus isn't a candidate to help in 2024. And for his part, Pages has played only one game at Triple-A and is coming off surgery to repair a torn labrum.
1. Chicago Cubs
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2023 Relief Pitcher WAR: 5.8 (T-16th)
2024 Projected Closer: Adbert Alzolay
Whereas even the Dodgers only seem to be one of many speculative fits for Clase, the Cubs have real interest in him.
This is according to Bruce Levine of 670 The Score, and it tracks with the vibe surrounding the North Siders. Per ESPN's Buster Olney, they're the team to watch for the rest of the winter:
Though Alzolay went 20-for-23 in save opportunities after June 9 of last year, Clase would be an upgrade in the closer's role. And with him aboard, the Cubs would perhaps only be a reunion with Cody Bellinger away from planting their flag as a World Series contender.
Trade Proposal: Chicago Cubs get RHP Emmanuel Clase; Cleveland Guardians get INF/OF Christopher Morel, OF Owen Caissie
When reading a Jan. 13 report from Patrick Mooney of The Athletic, one senses the Cubs don't want to trade Morel. But, then again, I'd want to send those same signals if I was at least open to moving a guy. And it's hard to imagine a better fit for Morel than Cleveland.
Throw in Caissie, a powerful outfielder who's now MLB's No. 70 prospect after posting a .918 OPS at Double-A last year, and you get a solid package for Clase. If the Guardians didn't agree, there's enough in Chicago's second-ranked system to mix and match with in trade talks.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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