UFC 297 Predictions: Bleacher Report Main Card Staff Picks
The UFC will stage its first pay-per-view of 2024 in the Great White North as MMA's premier promotion invades Toronto for UFC 297.
The main event features a grudge match as Sean Strickland defends his UFC middleweight title against challenger Dricus du Plessis. The two have already engaged in fisticuffs outside the Octagon at last month's UFC PPV.
In the co-main event, Raquel Pennington faces Brazilian Mayra Bueno Silva, a dangerous opponent who has had seven first-round finishes in her career, for the vacant UFC women's bantamweight title.
The rest of the main card features veterans against up-and-coming fighters, including Neil Magny vs. Mike Malott in a welterweight clash, Chris Curtis vs. Canadian Marc-Andre Barriault in a middleweight bout, and Arnold Allen vs. undefeated featherweight Movsar Evloev.
Who's getting their hand raised, and whose stock is about to take a hit?
The B/R Combat Sports Staff came together to provide predictions for UFC 297.
Disagree with their selections? Make your voice heard in the comments section of the app.
Sean Strickland vs. Dricus du Plessis
1 of 5Well, this should be fun.
The war of words between these two led to a viral brawl at UFC 296. Dricus du Plessis seems to enjoy getting under Sean Strickland's skin, but will that translate to UFC gold?
I'm having trouble forgetting that Du Plessis' cardio looked incredibly suspect in recent fights against Derek Brunson and Darren Till. He claims that nose surgery fixed his breathing problems, but call me skeptical.
Strickland is the last person anyone with questionable cardio should fight. I think he'll walk DDP down and keep a daunting pace en route to a stoppage.
Prediction: Strickland by TKO, Rd. 4
- Haris Kruskic
Haris is bang on.
Du Plessis is one of the most dangerous finishers in the middleweight division–just ask Till, Brunson and Robert Whittaker–but he has shown signs of fatigue in some of his fights. Strickland, on the other hand, is a master at tiring his opponents out and overwhelming them with his pace and pressure.
I think du Plessis will have some big moments in the first round or two, but even if his cardio holds up for five rounds, he'll be slower and less active than Strickland in the back half of the fight. That will be the deciding factor.
Du Plessis wins some early battles, but Strickland wins the war.
Prediction: Strickland by unanimous decision
- Tom Taylor
Maybe neither guy is your cup of tea, persona-wise. That's OK.
But you can't help but be jazzed about the fight anyway, right?
My colleagues hit every competitive nail on the head. Du Plessis is a terrifying finisher. Strickland is a guy who'll have to be obliterated to be beaten, because anything short of that and you're sure to be gasping as he walks you down and tees off in minutes 21-25.
Put me in the majority, but I think the favored South African gets the stoppage he seeks.
I can't help but get the image of Strickland being folded by Alex Pereira out of my head. He can be hit. He can be hurt. Particularly by a fearsome striker. Du Plessis is all that.
Prediction: Du Plessis by TKO, Rd. 1
- Lyle Fitzsimmons
Raquel Pennington vs. Mayra Bueno Silva
2 of 5Raquel Pennington's five-fight win streak has gone largely unnoticed by fans, but she's put on good, steady performances for years. One doesn't stick around in the UFC for 10 years without having that in their game.
It just seems like Mayra Bueno Silva's time is now. She's been nothing short of dominant since moving up to bantamweight in 2022. Pennington hasn't faced this level of grappling since Amanda Nunes in 2018, and I'm not sure her game is diverse enough to withstand Bueno Silva's level of top pressure.
Prediction: Bueno Silva by submission, Rd. 2
- Haris Kruskic
Once again, it's hard to argue with Haris.
At this point, there's no questioning Pennington's status as one of the best bantamweights in UFC history. She's beaten pretty much everyone she's met in the Octagon except for greats like Amanda Nunes and Holly Holm.
Still, this feels like Bueno Silva's moment. The Brazilian's recent submission over Holm may have been overturned due to a failed drug test, but it's hard to forget the image of her nearly yanking the former champ's head off.
Pennington will be hard to finish–only Nunes has stopped her in the Octagon–but Bueno Silva will eventually find a way. Like Haris, I see it happening on the mat, just a little later in the fight.
Prediction: Bueno Silva by submission, Rd. 4
- Tom Taylor
No one can debate Pennington's UFC's chops. They're all that and then some.
But even though she's won five in a row, six of seven, and 11 of 16 since the start of 2014, it feels like the second half of those victories have been against a slightly lower level of opposition than she'll be facing Saturday night.
Bueno Silva is not only good, but she's also simply operating on a higher level than anyone Pennington has beaten in nearly five years. Three straight fights have ended (in the cage at least) in submission victories, and, though Pennington hasn't tapped out in more than 11 years, that doesn't mean simply surviving will equate to winning.
It says here it won't.
Prediction: Bueno Silva by unanimous decision
- Lyle Fitzsimmons
Neil Magny vs. Mike Malott
3 of 5Whenever we make our predictions, I'll often bring up "passing of the torch" fights. There's no better example than Neil Magny vs. Mike Malott.
Malott has looked incredible since entering the UFC in 2022. It's no wonder the UFC brass decided to throw the Canadian on the featured fight of a pay-per-view in Toronto. He's electric.
Meanwhile, Magny has been thrown to the wolves over the last couple of years, losing to Shavkat Rakhmonov, Gilbert Burns and Ian Machado Garry. There's still clearly gas in the veteran's tank, but 31 UFC fights is a lot of wear and tear to take. It just feels like the wheels are going to start falling off sooner rather than later. If that's the case, Malott is not someone you want to be fighting.
Prediction: Malott by submission, Rd. 2
- Haris Kruskic
Neil Magny has become the guy to beat for anybody looking to crack the welterweight Top 15.
Just like Rakhmonov and Garry before him, surging Canadian finisher Malott will have his chance against the experienced veteran.
I'd pick Malott to win this fight anywhere on earth, but in Toronto, where he will have the support of what's sure to be a passionate Canadian crowd, it's even harder to see him messing this up. The 32-year-old thumps Magny on the feet to set up a stoppage on the mat, and asserts himself as the most promising Canadian contender since Rory MacDonald.
Prediction: Malott by submission, Rd. 1
- Tom Taylor
Magny's everything that everyone says he is.
A very good fighter. A respected pro. A boost to any card he's on.
But he's clearly the B-side here. The guy being fed to the hot prospect, on the hot prospect's home turf, to put the hot prospect over.
Magny is 2-3 in his last five with two submission losses. Malott is 4-for-4 in the UFC and its related entities, with all four wins by finish and three of them by submission.
My outside gig as a fifth-grade teacher screams "Do the math." So I will.
Prediction: Malott by submission, Rd. 2
- Lyle Fitzsimmons
Chris Curtis vs. Marc-André Barriault
4 of 5Chris Curtis has sneaky good wins over Brendan Allen, Rodolfo Vieira and Joaquin Buckley over the last two years. There's a reason he's ranked now. Meanwhile, Marc-André Barriault doesn't have a standout performance that makes me confident in him. It's really that simple.
Prediction: Curtis by unanimous decision
- Haris Kruskic
Here's where Haris and I finally diverge.
I agree that Curtis has a better resume than Barriault, but Barriault's size, power and aggression will be the key in this fight. Spurred on by the crowd, the French-Canadian will walk Curtis down and eat some hard shots, but land the bigger ones over a fun 15 minutes that will have fans praising both fighters in the aftermath.
Prediction: Barriault by unanimous decision
- Tom Taylor
When Tom breaks, I break, too.
In a fight that makes it easy to make a case in either direction, I'll hunt for a tiebreaker. And as Tom alluded to, that tiebreaker is the home turf.
Does it add to the significant strikes or takedown totals? No. But if Barriault fights like a more accomplished and more confident fighter simply because of the response he gets, that'll be enough to shade things in his direction.
Prediction: Barriault by unanimous decision
- Lyle Fitzsimmons
Arnold Allen vs. Movsar Evloev
5 of 5Other than Strickland vs. Du Plessis, I'm most excited for this fight. These are two very high-level fighters with a lot on the line. Arnold Allen is coming off his only UFC loss in an admirable showing against Max Holloway. Movsar Evloev is 17-0 but hasn't shown much diversity in his skill set aside from his wrestling. Both fighters will be knocking on the door of a title shot with a win here.
With that said, give me Allen. I don't believe Evloev can hold the Englishman down long enough to neutralize his well-roundedness. This fight may get cagey at times, but Allen does just enough to squeak out a decision win. Down goes 17-0.
Prediction: Allen by split decision
- Haris Kruskic
Evloev's 17-0 record is very impressive, and he's looked great in his first seven Octagon appearances, but I have never really bought him as a serious title threat. As Haris said, his game is a bit one-dimensional, and he also hasn't shown much killer instinct. To me, he's always looked like the kind of fighter who will beat most of the opposition he meets but struggle against the cream of the crop.
Allen fits into that category.
The Brit is good enough at grappling to force Evloev into a striking match, and while he certainly isn't as dangerous as featherweights like Edson Barboza or Josh Emmett on the feet, he should be good enough to beat the Russian up.
Prediction: Allen by unanimous decision
- Tom Taylor
OK, it's time for me to break with the esteemed gentlemen.
As suspect as I can be about guys who reach PPV shows with gaudy records but little substance, I've also got a long memory for guys who get to main-event opportunities and do precious little with them.
That's where Allen was with his shot at Max Holloway nine months ago. And he was so ineffective that he made a fading former champion look fresh and new again.
So I'm looking harder at Evloev, his 26 takedowns across his last four fights, and a gas tank that's carried him 15 minutes seven straight times.
Call it a close one.
Prediction: Evloev by split decision
- Lyle Fitzsimmons
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
