MLB Trade Rumors: Guardians' Shane Bieber 'Very Unlikely' to Be Moved This Offseason

Now that the Cleveland Guardians know what Shane Bieber will be earning 2024, they seem prepared to start the regular season with the former American League Cy Young winner in their rotation.

Per Jon Heyman of the New York Post and MLB Network, Bieber is considered " very unlikely" to be traded by the Guardians during the offseason.

The Guardians have been very quiet this offseason, even by their usual standards. One of the primary reasons for their lack of spending has been due to uncertainty around their television rights deal.

Their situation remains in limbo, along with the Minnesota Twins and Texas Rangers, after The Athletic's Evan Drellich reported this week that Diamond Sports' bankruptcy hearing scheduled for Tuesday was postponed until January 19.

Given the uncertainty about their television money for next season, there's been an assumption that Cleveland would likely cut back on payroll spending.

Bieber was the most-likely trade candidate on the roster given he's one year away from free agency. The 28-year-old agreed to a one-year, $13.125 million deal on Thursday to avoid arbitration.

Appearing on the Foul Territory Podcast last month (h/t James Rapien of SI.com), The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal expressed skepticism that Bieber would get traded because his value has decreased around the league.

"Yes, the Guardians are considering moving Shane Bieber," Rosenthal said. "I don't know that it's going to happen. And the reason is that Bieber has lost velocity since 2020, really almost every year. He's not quite the same guy. He's coming off of an injury."

Bieber is coming off an injury-plagued 2023 season that saw him miss more than two months due to inflammation in his right elbow. He did return to make two starts at the end of September.

This was the second time in three seasons that Bieber has missed significant time due to an injury. He missed three months in 2021 due to a strained subscapularis.

There has also been a notable decline in Bieber's velocity in recent years. His average fastball velocity of 91.3 mph last season ranked in the 13th percentile of all pitchers. He was also in the third percentile or worse in average exit velocity and hard hit percentage.

If the Guardians want to try getting something for Bieber before he potentially leaves as a free agent next offseason, their best approach would be to let him rebuild his value early in the 2024 season and try to move him before the trade deadline in the summer.

There's also the possibility that the Guardians contend for an AL Central title and Bieber plays a significant role for their rotation, making it unlikely they would attempt to trade him at all this season.