The 10 MLB Teams That Have Improved the Least During This Offseason
Outside of a few fun weeks in December, it's been slow going on Major League Baseball's 2023-24 offseason markets. Few teams can claim to have gotten appreciably better.
As such, there were plenty of options to choose from for a list of clubs that have improved the least.
Inaction naturally qualified teams for consideration, yet there's also the question of what they've lost. Some can still technically re-sign key free agents, so we're not talking potential losses. It's more about actual losses via either trades or free agency that, in the scheme of things, just plain hurt.
This was more a subjective exercise than an objective one, but comparing teams' 2023 WAR outputs and their projections for 2024 (both courtesy of FanGraphs) was nonetheless instructive. Go here for the full picture.
Let's count 'em down.
10. Boston Red Sox
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2023 Record: 78-84, 5th in AL East
Key Losses: LHP Chris Sale, RF Alex Verdugo, INF Luis Urías
Key Additions: RHP Lucas Giolito, LF Tyler O'Neill, 2B Vaughn Grissom
2024-2023 WAR: Plus-6.7
With the club's third last-place finish in five years still right there in the rearview, Boston Red Sox chairman Tom Werner more or less promised fans that things were about to change.
"We know that we have to be competitive next year," Werner said in November. "So we're going to be competitive next year. We're going to have be full-throttle in every possible way."
What he meant by this was never entirely clear, but now we know that going "full-throttle" didn't mean signing Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto or Shōta Imanaga. Or, at least so far, Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery.
What the Red Sox have done is swap out two basically known quantities (Sale and Verdugo) for three unknown quantities (Giolito, O'Neill and Grissom). It could work if Giolito and O'Neill turn back the clock a couple of years and if Grissom, who's only 23, breaks out. But, alas, those "ifs" are doing a lot of heavy lifting.
When it comes down to it, Boston has begun 2024 with a lower payroll than it had in 2023 and projections that, once again, peg them as the worst team in the AL East.
9. Seattle Mariners
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Record: 88-74, 3rd in AL West
Key Losses: RF Teoscar Hernández, 3B Eugenio Suárez, LF Jarred Kelenic, LHP Marco Gonzales, LHP Robbie Ray, C Tom Murphy
Key Additions: DH Mitch Garver, RF Mitch Haniger, RHP Anthony DeSclafani, OF Luke Raley, INF Luis Urías
2024-2023 WAR: Minus-6.0
There's no faulting the Seattle Mariners for signing Garver, who represents a big upgrade for a designated hitter spot that produced just a .677 OPS in 2023.
It hurts to lose Hernández, however, and the Mariners have otherwise taken a head-scratching approach to their roster-building. This is particularly true of the Suárez and Kelenic trades, in which they gave up an established slugger and a high-upside outfielder for, well, not a whole lot, really.
That's unless you count payroll relief, of course. But even after those trades and the recent deal centered on Ray, you might be surprised by how little flexibility Seattle has gained. The team is only slated to spend $8 million less in 2024 than it did in 2023.
That's probably not enough for any impact free agents, such as Cody Bellinger. If anything, one can look at the Mariners' current roster and wonder if they might even be done.
There is upside to this approach, especially if Haniger stays healthy and Raley recreates a low-ley strong 2023 season with the Tampa Bay Rays. But even if the cost would have been greater, there was probably more upside in simply keeping the guys they gave up.
8. Milwaukee Brewers
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2023 Record: 92-70, 1st in NL Central
Key Losses: OF Mark Canha, C Victor Caratini, LHP Andrew Chafin, 1B Rowdy Tellez, RHP Adrian Houser, OF Tyrone Taylor
Key Additions: LHP Wade Miley, RHP Colin Rea, 1B Jake Bauers, C Eric Haase, RHP Joe Ross, RHP Taylor Clarke
2024-2023 WAR: Minus-7.9
This piece is definitely more about players than managers. Because, really, what do managers even do anymore?
But Craig Counsell is different. He's a legit puppet master when it comes to in-game strategy, and nobody's ever faulted him for being a bad communicator. An ideal manager, in other words, so the pain of losing him to the Chicago Cubs is real indeed.
Meanwhile, the Milwaukee Brewers' roster-building process is more or less in the same boat as that of the Mariners: Plenty of moving pieces, but for what?
A lower payroll is the only clear answer. Milwaukee has thus far slashed $21 million off its 2023 payroll, and there's a real chance that number will only get bigger. All it would take is a trade of Corbin Burnes or Willy Adames, who are projected to earn $27.5 million in 2024.
Even in the meantime, middling projections for 2024 might not be the best encapsulation of where the Brewers stand. Per DraftKings' odds for NL Central teams, only the Pittsburgh Pirates are a worse bet to win the World Series.
7. Baltimore Orioles
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2023 Record: 100-62, 1st in AL East
Key Losses: RHP Kyle Gibson, RHP Jack Flaherty
Key Additions: RHP Craig Kimbrel
2024-2023 WAR: Minus-4.1
Orioles general manager Mike Elias began the winter by proclaiming Baltimore as a growing attraction for free agents, with Gibson's arrival the year before as evidence.
"He picked us because that's where he wanted to go," Elias said in November. "We're hopeful that the word is out, that it's a good place to come in as a free agent now."
One might have hoped that Baltimore's ownership would put its money where Elias' mouth is. It may not have happened the previous winter, but that was before the club planted its flag as a World Series contender in 2023. And then the team was linked to Josh Hader, planting yet another seed for a possible splurge.
Cut to now, though, and the Orioles have lost both Gibson and Flaherty and settled for Kimbrel, who's developed a knack for high-profile flameouts, as a closer stand-in for Félix Bautista while he's recovering from Tommy John surgery. It amounts to a net negative, which in turn amounts to disappointment.
There's still time for the Orioles to act, specifically on a trade for Dylan Cease that seems realistic. For now, though, their advantage over the competition in a loaded AL East isn't what it was at the end of last season.
6. Houston Astros
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2023 Record: 90-72, 1st in AL West
Key Losses: C Martín Maldonado, LF Michael Brantley
Key Additions: C Victor Caratini
2024-2023 WAR: Minus-0.3
In fairness to the Houston Astros, their catching corps should be better in 2024 than it was in 2023.
Yainer Díaz's shift into the starting role frankly should have happened midway through last season. Otherwise, swapping out Maldonado for Caratini should at least be a net positive for Houston's offense.
Yet even if he wasn't under contract for the coming season, Brantley's retirement has the potential to be the most impactful of the winter. He had been a candidate to end up back in left field for the Astros, where he might have been a solid offensive producer if healthy.
There are otherwise three sizable holes in Houston's bullpen by way of Hector Neris, Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek reaching free agency. The trio combined for a 2.82 ERA over 194 appearances in 2023.
These and the hole in left field could still be filled with outside additions, but it seems equally possible that they won't be. With the Astros already projected to blow past last year's payroll in 2024, general manager Dana Brown's comments on his flexibility from November still ring true: "I don't think we have a ton."
5. Texas Rangers
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2023 Record: 90-72, 2nd in AL West
Key Losses: DH Mitch Garver, RHP Chris Stratton, LHP Martín Pérez, LHP Will Smith
Key Additions: RHP Tyler Mahle, RHP Kirby Yates
2024-2023 WAR: Minus-10.7
Garver started seeing regular action in the Texas Rangers' lineup on June 3, 2023. From then until the end of their regular season, only Corey Seager was a better hitter for them.
Losing him doesn't altogether disband the general threat of Texas' lineup, but it does diminish it. It's suboptimal even sans context, and the context in this case happens to involve a likewise diminished pitching staff.
Jordan Montgomery remains unsigned, while the departures of Stratton, Pérez and Smith have chipped away at Texas' depth. Factor in Max Scherzer's surgery for a herniated disk, and what's left are a great deal of questions between ace Nathan Eovaldi and closer José Leclerc.
Winning a World Series usually means an increase in a team's spending power, but this case is different. With the Rangers' local TV situation up in the air, Jon Heyman of the New York Post says big expenditures may be "on hold for now."
In all, this is not the offseason that Rangers fans had in mind coming off the team's first championship. Unless something changes, it'll be hard to count the Rangers as a favorite to go all the way again this year.
4. Tampa Bay Rays
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2023 Record: 99-63, 2nd in AL East
Key Losses: RHP Tyler Glasnow, OF Manuel Margot, OF Luke Raley
Key Additions: RHP Ryan Pepiot, OF Jonny DeLuca, INF/OF Richie Palacios, INF José Caballero
2024-2023 WAR: Minus-12.5
With Shane McClanahan, Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen all recovering from elbow surgeries, the Tampa Bay Rays really couldn't spare pitching this winter.
That they nonetheless had little choice but to trade Glasnow amounts to an own goal. Nobody forced them to guarantee him a $25 million salary that they couldn't afford. They did that all on their own, and so he had to go.
The return for Glasnow isn't terrible, as Pepiot will step right into Tampa's rotation while DeLuca effectively inherits Margot's role as the club's fourth outfielder. But the burden of justifying the deal is mostly on Pepiot, and he's no Glasnow when it comes to pure stuff.
For his part, Raley played in 118 games last year and was squarely above-average in posting an .824 OPS with 19 home runs. His presence will be missed in an offense that ranked second among AL teams in runs last season.
Whereas other teams on this list have the time and means to make up for their losses, the Rays may only have time. Even after all the cutting they've done, they're still slated to raise their payroll by $14 million over 2023.
3. Minnesota Twins
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2023 Record: 87-75, 1st in AL Central
Key Losses: RHP Sonny Gray, RHP Kenta Maeda, RHP Tyler Mahle, RHP Emilio Pagán
Key Additions: None
2024-2023 WAR: Minus-4.8
I'm not about to argue that Gray should have won the AL Cy Young Award over Gerrit Cole, but it is a little surprising that he didn't get a single first-place vote.
Gray was just as unhittable as Cole on a pitch-to-pitch basis in 2023, if not more so. He notably served up just eight home runs over 184 innings, helping to contribute to an MLB-leading figure for Fielding Independent Pitching.
It hurts to lose a guy like that under any circumstances. And in this set of circumstances, that much more so. Sans Gray and the other three pitchers the Twins have seen depart this winter, what was the best top-to-bottom staff of any AL team last season is looking thinner.
There's still time for the Twins to act, but the money may not be there if the club is still committed to getting its payroll down into the $125-140 million range. It's already projected at the low end of that range, and it may be possible it will stay there for the sake of having in-season flexibility.
Whatever the case, it's very much on the Twins that the gap between them and their AL Central pursuers in Cleveland and Detroit has shrunk this winter.
2. San Diego Padres
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2023 Record: 82-80, 3rd in NL West
Key Losses: LF Juan Soto, CF Trent Grisham, RHP Michael Wacha, RHP Seth Lugo, RHP Nick Martinez
Key Additions: RHP Michael King, RHP Randy Vásquez, C Kyle Higashioka, RHP Yuki Matsui, RHP Woo Suk Go, RHP Enyel De Los Santos
2024-2023 WAR: Minus-11.8
Elsewhere on the topic of managerial exits, Bob Melvin's exit from San Diego to San Francisco is another Counsell-sized blow. They don't hand out Manager of the Year to just nobody, and he's won three of 'em.
So, that hurts. And what hurts even more is losing a guy like Soto. He's among the most irreplaceable hitters in MLB, at least until guys who can crank out .400 OBPs and 30-plus homers start growing on trees.
The losses of Wacha, Lugo and Martinez hurt just as much. The three of them together accounted for 391 innings last season, as well as a 3.41 ERA. The league average was 4.33.
There is some potential in the guys the Padres have brought in, particularly if King picks up where he left off after posting a 1.88 ERA in eight starts down the stretch for the New York Yankees. Yet even that is a "maybe."
In prior winters, the Padres would have been a shoo-in to do something to salvage such a mess. But this winter, everything seems secondary to the primary goal of gutting the team's payroll.
1. Los Angeles Angels
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2023 Record: 73-89, 4th in AL West
Key Losses: DH/RHP Shohei Ohtani, C Max Stassi, INF David Fletcher
Key Additions: RHP Luis García, RHP Adam Cimber, RHP Zach Plesac
2024-2023 WAR: Plus-7.9
Yes, it's true. At least where WAR is concerned, the Angels are actually projected for substantial improvement in 2024.
But to heck with that. Because short of DeLorean-ing back in time to pluck Bullet Rogan out of the 1920s, there's no good way to make up for losing a guy like Ohtani.
With Ohtani out of the picture, 19 percent of the home runs the Angels hit last year are suddenly missing. So, too, is about 12 percent of their pitching staff's strikeouts. It would be hard enough for a 100-win team to sustain those losses, much less an 89-loss team.
Yet even with the Angels shrinking into a corncob in front of everyone's eyes, not rebuilding remains the plan. And the capacity for one or more major splashes is there, as there's a whopping $61 million gap between what they spent in 2023 and project to spend in 2024.
At least until splashes materialize, though, the burden of making sure the Angels make any noise mostly falls on Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon. If further injuries find them this season, things could get really bad in Anaheim.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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