Top 10 Landing Spots for J.D. Martinez in MLB Free Agency
It should be a bigger deal that one of the most productive hitters of the last decade is just waiting to be had on Major League Baseball's free-agent market.
This, of course, is J.D. Martinez.
Martinez is a six-time All-Star who boasts a .908 OPS and 291 home runs since he first broke out way back in 2014. His 2023 campaign with the Los Angeles Dodgers went a good way toward adding to these figures, as he finished with a .908 OPS and 33 long balls.
Granted, Martinez is 36 years old and strictly a designated hitter at this point in his career. But if there's a bright side here, it's that he can likely be had on an affordable short-term deal.
So, let's take a deep dive on his value and then discuss his best potential landing spots.
What Is Martinez Worth in Free Agency?
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When Martinez concluded a five-year, $110 million deal with the Boston Red Sox in 2022, he seemed washed.
Though he played in 139 games that year, he hit only 16 home runs with a modest .790 OPS. His contact quality, formerly a trademark of his, suffered as he landed in the 51st percentile for exit velocity and in the 60th percentile for hard-hit rate.
Yet the chance the Dodgers took on him via a one-year, $10 million deal was a worthwhile risk, if for no other reason than it would reunite Martinez with hitting coach Robert Van Scoyoc. And it worked, as Martinez's results were underscored by exit velocity and a hard-hit rate that both took a leap into the 98th percentile.
One red flag is that Martinez struck out a career-high 31.1 percent of the time in 2023. Another is that he basically lost two months to a bothersome groin injury. Even if he's strictly a DH, he's at an age when further injury trouble is likely a feature, not a bug.
Still, it's not as if he's in for a megadeal. MLB Trade Rumors originally projected Martinez for a two-year, $40 million pact. Especially after fellow DH Mitch Garver signed a two-year, $24 million contract with the Seattle Mariners, that seems fair.
Plenty of teams can hypothetically do a deal like that. After first touching on some honorable mentions, let's count down the top 10 best bets to do so.
Note: All 2023 designated hitter WAR is courtesy of Baseball Reference, with 2024 roster projections courtesy of RosterResource at FanGraphs.
Honorable Mentions
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Boston Red Sox
Because they could use at least one more right-handed bat, a reunion between Martinez and the Red Sox makes some sense on paper. But with $90 million signee Masataka Yoshida slated to DH on a daily basis in 2024, the fit is hardly perfect.
Cleveland Guardians
The Guardians got a league-low .664 OPS from the DH spot in 2023, so an upgrade would be nice. Alas, their payroll is limited in the best of times, and this is not the best of times.
St. Louis Cardinals
Can the Cardinals do better than Brendan Donovan at DH? Probably, but Martinez likely isn't in play for them while their payroll is more or less maxed out.
10. Milwaukee Brewers
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2023 Designated Hitter WAR: 1.0 (T-19th)
2024 Projected DH: Christian Yelich
The Brewers had a power problem in 2023. So much so that their 165 home runs were the fewest of the 12 teams that qualified for the playoffs.
The designated hitter spot didn't help matters. The position produced only 16 homers all year, with a .668 OPS that ranked as the lowest among National League teams.
Though RosterResource has Yelich penciled in as Milwaukee's everyday DH in 2024, general manager Matt Arnold has confirmed that the 2018 NL MVP will continue to see time in left field. As such, there's at least an on-paper fit for Martinez on the Brewers.
The catch is that the Brewers haven't exactly been in spending mode this winter, and some big cuts could come via trades of Corbin Burnes and Willy Adames. Assuming one of his priorities is to chase his second World Series ring, the question would then be why Martinez would be interested in the Brewers even if they expressed interest in him.
9. San Diego Padres
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2023 Designated Hitter WAR: 1.0 (T-19th)
2024 Projected DH: Manny Machado
Like the Brewers, the Padres are another team with an established superstar penciled into their DH spot with the 2024 season looming.
However, Machado is no more likely to stick in the DH spot than Yelich is. He may have to begin the season there as he continues his recovery from elbow surgery, but he'll presumably move back to his usual home at third base eventually.
If the Padres were to bring Martinez in, the idea would be for him to succeed where Matt Carpenter and Nelson Cruz failed in 2023. They were meant to elevate the DH spot, but San Diego ultimately got just a .717 OPS and 24 homers from the position.
But can the Padres afford Martinez? This would have been a ridiculous question this time last year, but not so much now with their payroll purportedly likely to sink below the $200 million threshold. That doesn't leave them with nothing to spend, but what they do have to spare would be better off spent on pitching and outfield depth.
8. Miami Marlins
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2023 Designated Hitter WAR: 1.6 (14th)
2024 Projected DH: Avisaíl García
There are a couple of good reasons to loop the Marlins into this discussion, starting with how Martinez is a Miami native who, at least as of 2020, had a home in nearby Fort Lauderdale.
As to roster-building matters, Jorge Soler's free agency represents a major problem for the Marlins. Without him and his 36 homers in the DH spot, they're missing the most productive slugger from a lineup that ranked dead-last in the NL in scoring in 2023.
Yet even setting aside how LoanDepot Park isn't especially friendly to home run hitters, there's the question of whether the Marlins will splurge for Martinez. He'll likely be cheaper than Soler, sure, but the club is more focused on adding a shortstop and maybe a catcher.
Signing Martinez would otherwise basically mean giving up on García, who still has $24 million coming his way. That day is probably inevitable, but it may be too bitter of a pill for the Marlins to swallow for the moment.
7. Texas Rangers
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2023 Designated Hitter WAR: 2.4 (10th)
2024 Projected DH: Ezequiel Duran
When Garver signed with the Mariners, the Rangers lost the guy who had been their best non-Corey Seager hitter after June 3 of last season. And also, the guy who effectively iced the franchise's first championship with his go-ahead single in Game 5 of the World Series.
As concepts go, the Rangers signing Martinez to fill Garver's shoes is a fun one. It could help that he knows from experience how hitter-friendly Globe Life Field can be. His 40 plate appearances there have yielded four homers and a 1.475 OPS.
Trouble is, the Rangers are already projected to spend at the same level in 2024 as they did in 2023. Plus, the club's local TV situation is up in the air. Such things raise questions about how much money they can feasibly spend this winter.
Even if the answer isn't "zero," the Rangers would be justified in sticking with Duran as their de facto DH. He posted a solid .768 OPS this year, as well as encouraging figures in the exit velocity and hard-hit rate departments.
6. Chicago Cubs
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2023 Designated Hitter WAR: 0.7 (T-22nd)
2024 Projected DH: Christopher Morel
If the Cubs' failed pursuit of Shohei Ohtani is good for anything, perhaps it's as an indication that they're willing to spend for an upgrade at DH?
The position wasn't exactly a hotbed for production in 2023, after all. Only the Mariners did worse than the .213 average that the Cubs got from their DHs, with the position otherwise falling just short of a .700 OPS at .695.
Though the Cubs are slated to spend only $12 million less in 2024 than they did in 2023, that obviously didn't stop them from making their run at Ohtani. If they're that serious about making a splash, re-signing Cody Bellinger and adding Martinez may be possible.
Like the Rangers and Duran, though, the Cubs could end up being very glad they stuck with Morel as their everyday DH. He has his faults as a hitter, but power isn't one of them. He hit 26 homers in only 107 games last year, notably with a 95th-percentile barrel rate.
5. San Francisco Giants
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2023 Designated Hitter WAR: 1.2 (T-15th)
2024 Projected DH: Wilmer Flores
Speaking of teams that made runs at Ohtani, the Giants were so serious about landing the two-time MVP that they matched the $700 million offer he accepted from the Dodgers.
There was surely more to that than simply wanting a slugger, but there's little question the Giants could use some thump. They outscored only the Marlins among NL teams last year, and their .383 slugging percentage was actually the lowest in the NL.
It's only fair to note that Flores was the Giants' best hitter last year, but he doesn't necessarily have to hog the DH spot in 2024. Him splitting time at first base, second base and third base would be perfectly acceptable if he was deferring to Martinez at DH.
However, Martinez himself would have fair reasons to rebuff the Giants if they came calling. That Oracle Park is no country for sluggers is one of them. Another is that the Giants are at best a fringe contender, and thus not quite his best play for a ring.
4. Toronto Blue Jays
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2023 Designated Hitter WAR: 3.2 (T-5th)
2024 Projected DH: Danny Jansen
Like the Giants, the Blue Jays made a run at Ohtani and were even willing to offer the same terms he accepted from the Dodgers.
One thus can't really fault them for that swing and miss, but it's certainly going to take more to make up for it than bunt-like deals with Kevin Kiermaier and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Something bigger is a must, and a pact with Martinez would suffice.
With Brandon Belt out of the picture, Jansen would seem to merely be keeping the DH spot warm for someone else. If the Blue Jays wanted Martinez to be that guy, they could hope to entice him with the Rogers Centre's hitter-friendliness and the club's very much open contention window.
But while the Blue Jays have had interest in Martinez in the past, right now their eye is reportedly on Joc Pederson. He makes more sense for Toronto in at least one respect, which is that his left-handed bat would balance the lineup more than Martinez's right-handed bat.
3. Los Angeles Angels
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2023 Designated Hitter WAR: 5.2 (1st)
2024 Projected DH: Brandon Drury
Meanwhile in Anaheim, Ohtani's former team reportedly has its eye on Martinez as a candidate to fill the sizable hole his departure left at DH.
This is according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, who's also one of several reporters who have connected the Angels to two-time Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell. If true, it seems they're serious about not rebuilding in their new post-Ohtani era.
Martinez is no stranger to Southern California after spending last season with the Dodgers. Otherwise, the Angels can offer him a great place to hit. Angel Stadium of Anaheim is friendly to sluggers in general and could be especially beneficial to Martinez's opposite-field power.
If Martinez wants to win, though, he should steer well clear of Anaheim. The Angels managed to lose 89 games last season even with Ohtani, and underneath the franchise right now is one of the worst farm systems in the majors. They're not rebuilding, but they should be.
2. New York Mets
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2023 Designated Hitter WAR: 0.3 (28th)
2024 Projected DH: DJ Stewart
The Angels aren't the only team Heyman mentioned in his report on Martinez's market. Also in there are the Mets, whose issues at DH perhaps need no introduction.
The DH spot wasn't a total disaster in 2023. Or at least, not as much as its WAR output indicates. But it was always clear last season that Daniel Vogelbach was simply not the answer. Nor is a 30-year-old journeyman like Stewart.
If the Mets are indeed serious about Martinez, well, at least they're a better bet to contend in 2024 than the Angels. Though the Mets lost 87 games in their own right last year, they have Edwin Díaz coming back and having Martinez alongside Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo would make for a sneaky-good lineup.
Even then, though, the Mets are probably only going to go into 2024 as a mere wild-card contender. If Martinez wants a better shot at the World Series, there could be at least one place where he can get it.
1. Arizona Diamondbacks
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2023 Designated Hitter WAR: 0.9 (21st)
2024 Projected DH: Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
Though Heyman stopped short of specifically saying the Diamondbacks are with the Angels and Mets in pursuing Martinez, he did write in the very next sentence of his report that the slugger's former team "also seeks a hitter."
The idea is gaining buzz elsewhere, including with MLB.com's Thomas Harrigan and former GM Jim Duquette:
I'm just sitting over here nodding my head, and not just because Arizona DHs produced only a .678 OPS and 22 homers last season. The D-backs also know for a fact that Martinez's swing works in the desert, as his 62 games with them in 2017 yielded a ridiculous 29 homers.
Otherwise, this would be a chance for him to join up with the reigning National League champs at a time when they've already loaded up for another run in 2024. If they come calling, he should absolutely hear them out.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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