NFL 2023 MVP Odds: Tips on the Favorites and Best Values for Week 18
With only one week remaining in the 2023-24 NFL season, the MVP race is all but over. Several worthy candidates exist this year, but Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson has pretty much secured the MVP over the last two weeks.
Jackson has helped the Ravens secure the AFC's No. 1 seed and has beaten quality opponents like the Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers and Miami Dolphins down the stretch.
At this point, it would be a total shock to see another player snag the MVP away from Jackson. The odds reflect that fact, though, as the 2023 season has repeatedly shown, unexpected things can happen.
Below, you'll find a look at the updated MVP picture and some final wagering tips for Week 18.
Find the latest NFL MVP odds at DraftKings.
NFL MVP Favorites Entering Week 18
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Lamar Jackson -20000 (bet $20,000 to win $100)
Dak Prescott +1800 (bet $100 to win $1,800)
Brock Purdy +2000
Josh Allen +3500
Christian McCaffrey +4000
Tyreek Hill +7500
Tua Tagovailoa +10000
Jalen Hurts +20000
Jackson Has Likely Locked Up the MVP
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There's virtually no chance that a player other than Jackson wins the MVP at this point—though, of course, one can never fully dismiss an underdog in the NFL.
Head-to-head wins over MVP candidates like Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill over the last two weeks have given Jackson a clear edge. And the 26-year-old didn't scrape by in those contests, he shined.
Over the last two weeks, Jackson went 41-of-56 for 573 yards, seven touchdowns and no interceptions. He also rushed for 80 yards while leading Baltimore to 14-point and 37-point wins.
Against the Dolphins on Sunday, Jackson finished with a perfect 158.3 passer rating.
Jackson, who was the unanimous MVP during the 2019 season, is back to playing that level of football. He's managed to stay healthy this year, and he has the Ravens looking like a Super Bowl-bound juggernaut.
With the Ravens likely to rest their starters in a meaningless Week 18 game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Jackson's MVP resume is set. It would take a truly historic game from another finalist to prevent Jackson from winning his second award.
Fans who have the funds to get in on what should be a lock may want to wager on Jackson. At -20000 odds, though, there's no value to be found with the safe pick.
Josh Allen, Dak Prescott Only Long Shots Worth Considering
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Some fans will, inevitably, look to back a late dark horse, possibly banking on the fact that Jackson's raw passing numbers (3,678 yards, 24 TDs, 7 INTs) aren't overly impressive. Numbers don't even begin to showcase just how valuable Jackson has been to the Ravens, but some awards voters may consider them nonetheless.
Only two long shots appear worth considering at this point—Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott and Buffalo Bills signal-caller Josh Allen.
Allen has played better after some early season struggles, and he's helped lift Buffalo out of a 5-5 hole. The Bills have won four straight, and Allen could reach 4,000 passing yards and 500 rushing yards for the season this week.
If the Bills win this week, they'll also take over the AFC East.
Prescott has the gaudy passing stats (4,237 yards, 32 TDs, 8 INTs) that Jackson lacks, and he's poised to lead Dallas to a division title. If the Cowboys knock off the Washington Commanders this week, they'll secure the NFC East.
For either of these two quarterbacks to overtake Jackson, though, they'll likely need a record-setting performance in Week 18. Breaking, say, the NFL record for touchdown passes in a game (seven) while Jackson sits idle might leave enough of a final impression for an MVP upset—though, again, it's probably not happening.
The rest of the MVP field is likely out. Hill might have made a case if he reached his coveted 2,000 receiving yards, but he'll now need 283 yards in the finale to reach it. McCaffrey had a strong case with over 2,000 scrimmage yards, but he's poised to sit out Week 18 with a calf injury.
"We're happy that they'll take care of him this week and hopefully he'll start getting to go [in practice] during our off week," 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan said, per ESPN's Nick Wagoner.
Purdy sunk his candidacy with a four-interception performance against Baltimore, and he too may sit out the finale. Tagovailoa and the Dolphins got blown out by Jackson's Ravens, and he doesn't have the quality wins needed to seriously challenge for MVP.
Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts has watched his team collapse over the final month, and he's been too mistake-prone (19 turnovers) to stake a realistic claim for the MVP.
Prescott and Allen have the slimmest of chances still, but all other options should be off the table. Realistically, bettors may simply want to avoid MVP wagers from here on out.
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