NBA's Biggest Winners and Losers From December
December can be a mixed bag. The holidays bring plenty of cheer and merriment for some. They can bring stress for others, and the same is true for the NBA.
After the second full month of the 2023-24 campaign, it's starting to become clear who the real contenders are. MVP candidates are emerging. The teams that'll be in the hunt for the 2024 No. 1 pick are pretty well established, and there are winners and losers associated with each of those things.
The biggest on each side of that line for the month of December are found below, but a word on the distinctions first. Some team or player being deemed a "loser" (or "winner") now certainly doesn't put them in that category for the rest of the season. Things can change quickly and dramatically.
A December "loser" could very well be a January "winner" (or vice versa).
Winner: Toronto Raptors Fans Ready for a Rebuild
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In December alone, the Toronto Raptors are 3-9, 25th in threes per game and tied for 27th in three-point percentage.
Being this underwhelming couldn't have helped to substantiate what's been, frankly, an outrageous asking price for OG Anunoby. And that may be why the New York Knicks were able to land him without giving up a single first-rounder.
As discouraging as that may be for any fan who thought Anunoby's value was as high as reports over the last year or so suggested, this move still makes the Raptors a winner.
Immanuel Quickley is younger and arguably better than Anunoby. And this move signals that Toronto may finally be doing something it should've started months (maybe even years) ago.
As much as just about any team stuck in the morass of the league's middle, the Raptors need a teardown and rebuild. Whatever roster emerges, it should be filled with shooting with which to surround Scottie Barnes.
Barrett may not perfectly fit that mold, but he could be re-routed later. Quickley does, and this move shows the Raptors are at least trying to move onto another chapter.
Winner (for Now): New York Knicks
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The rumored asking price for OG Anunoby has long included multiple first-round picks. The New York Knicks landing him without giving up a single one is at least a small win.
He also almost certainly makes the Knicks better in the short term, if for no other reason than the fact that he removed RJ Barrett from the rotation.
Anunoby is better suited to defend big forwards, and he's a reliable catch-and shoot threat who'll take fewer possessions away from Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle.
Given how effective those two have been over the last couple seasons, a win-now move like this makes sense.
Having said that, there's at least a chance the move ages poorly. Immanuel Quickley is one of the league's more underrated playmakers. And while there may be some positional redundancy between him and Brunson, giving up raw talent like his is always something of a risk.
Loser: Detroit Pistons
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The Detroit Pistons haven't won a game since October 28.
Their 28 straight losses give them the longest single-season losing streak in league history and ties them for the longest stretched over two seasons.
For a team that, at least on paper, should've been a bit more competitive this season, this slide feels almost tragic.
Ausar Thompson has shown flashes as a Swiss-army-like playmaking forward. Joe Harris and Bojan Bogdanović were supposed to space the floor for Cade Cunningham. At least one of their bevy of centers should've popped. Heck, Jalen Duren maybe has, but even that wasn't enough.
Injuries to the shooters, Thompson's inability to shoot and what seems like a complete lack of direction from the highest paid coach in NBA history in Monty Williams have made the Pistons completely winless for the second month in a row.
Winner: Boston Celtics
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The Boston Celtics are on the other side of that coin, with a 10-2 record in December and what feels like the best top six in the NBA.
When they have at least three of Derrick White, Jrue Holiday, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Kristaps Porziņģis or Al Horford on the floor, they're plus-11.5 points per 100 possessions. When five of them are on the floor, that number climbs to plus-13.8.
When you watch this team in action, it's easy to understand how they're outscoring opponents so handily.
White and Holiday can squeeze opposing backcourts as well as any defensive duo in the league. Either Brown or Tatum can go for 25 on any given night and have plenty of defensive switchability of their own on the wings. Porziņģis' ability to space the floor or operate as a hub on the elbow ties everything together. Horford's experience and versatility allow him to replace just about anyone in that first five.
This holiday season, all of the above was on vivid display.
Loser: Defense
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Last season, the San Antonio Spurs had the worst defense in the NBA. They gave up 119.6 points per 100 possessions.
This December, seven teams are allowing more than that per 100 possessions. Only one team, the Philadelphia 76ers, is giving up fewer than 110 points per 100 possessions.
Steve Kerr may have picked an odd target for his rant about defense and officiating (Nikola Jokić is nowhere near the foul hunter that some of the league's other stars are), but there's a ring of truth to his general point.
It's just way too easy for offensive players to draw trips to the line right now. The flopping is out of control (even with this season's addition of the flopping tech). The way offensive players are allowed to initiate contact, often using the ball as a battering ram, and still be on the right side of the call is making defense borderline impossible.
The only real adjustment for defenders to make is to back off. No one wants to be in foul trouble. Simply staying away from the scorers achieves that goal, but it's also made scoring look as easy as it's ever been.
Of course, the level of skill and talent in the league right now also deserves some of the credit (or blame, depending on your perspective). But defensive talent needs a chance, too.
Winner: Offense
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Of course, all of the above sort of applies in the inverse for offenses. The evolution of the game over the past few seasons has made those absurdly productive.
Let's just look at the other side of the same numbers used on the slide about defense.
In 2022-23, the Sacramento Kings set the record for points per 100 possessions at 118.6. In December, a whopping 10 teams are above that mark.
December's league-leading Milwaukee Bucks are at a whopping 126.9.
Again, officiating and what often feels like a forcefield placed around some of the NBA's superstars is a big part of this. Leaguewide offensive development can't be discounted, though.
These players have an arsenal of shots and moves at their disposal that few in the past did. Stepbacks, sidestepping jumpers, floaters and other on-the-move shots, including from beyond the three-point line, are now almost requirements. More players are capable of creating and distributing. Seemingly everyone has an individual skills trainer with whom they spend their summers. Certain skills are no longer the exclusive territory of specific positions.
At some point, there will likely be a rule change or cultural shift that leads to improved defense. But for now, there's seemingly no slowing this offensive revolution.
Loser: Victor Wembanyama (By No Fault of His Own)
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We're now over two months into the NBA regular season, and the San Antonio Spurs still haven't totally abandoned their no-point guard experiment.
While No. 1 pick Victor Wembanyama has generally risen above that challenge, it's hard not to think about how much better he might be if they let him play more with a traditional table-setter.
For the entire season, Wemby is averaging 21.9 points per 75 possessions with a 52.3 true shooting percentage when sharing the floor with Jeremy Sochan (league average is 58.0). When he's on the floor with Tre Jones, those numbers jump to 25.1 points with a 58.5 true shooting percentage.
The insistence on the former alignment over the latter is a big part of why San Antonio went 2-10 in December.
In the long run, this may feel like much ado about nothing. This season could lead to another star to pair with Wembanyama in the 2024 draft. But the 7'4" Frenchman may be ready to live up to the hype now (he certainly is on the defensive end). Giving him more of a taste of winning would benefit him more than getting him used to losing.
Winner: Jaime Jaquez Jr.
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From a rookie who may not have landed in the best situation (at least in the short term) in Victor Wembanyama, we move to one who couldn't have found himself in a much better spot.
Jaime Jaquez Jr. fell all the way to the 18th pick in the 2023 draft, where the Miami Heat finally stopped his slide. After spending the first few games of the season convincing his coach that he deserved a meaningful rotation spot now, he's been one of the reigning Eastern Conference champs' most important players.
In December, Jaquez is averaging 33.4 minutes, 16.7 points, 2.8 assists and 1.0 threes while shooting 36.4 percent from deep.
He's shown an ability to score at all three levels, initiate his own offense and at least hold up on the defensive end.
After failing in their summer-long pursuit to land Damian Lillard (perhaps in part because of an unwillingness to part with Jaquez), Miami has to feel pretty good about keeping the UCLA product for a future that includes Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo.
Winner: Chicago Bulls' Trade Value
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They've hit a bit of a snag here recently, but the Chicago Bulls are 8-5 in December with a positive point differential and a bit of a crossroads in front of them.
They can take advantage of this hint of momentum and move players like DeMar DeRozan, Andre Drummond, Alex Caruso (who may have the highest trade value right now) and Zach LaVine (whose value is probably down, since the improved play coincided with his absence).
Use whatever you get from some or all of the above to start a meaningful rebuild. Go superstar hunting in the draft and build a contender organically over the next few years.
Or, they can convince themselves that this month means more than it does, continue to scratch and claw for a spot in the play-in tournament and lose DeRozan for nothing in free agency this summer.
The wiser path seems like the former one, but this Bulls administration has spurned it before.
Loser: Kevin Durant and the Phoenix Suns
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The Phoenix Suns have a bottom-10 winning percentage in December. Bradley Beal has played six total games this season. The organization mortgaged its entire future to land him and Kevin Durant. Now KD is firing back at ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski for reporting that he may be frustrated with the state of the team.
In short, all is not well for this top-heavy roster that fancied itself a title contender before the season started. Considering how much Phoenix gave up in the Durant and Beal trades, there aren't a ton of moves left on the board for them.
Something drastic, like starting their own rebuild with a Durant trade, could be the only out, but that feels entirely unlikely right now (unless KD asks out).
The only real hope right now is that Beal somehow gets and stays healthy, and that his presence in the rotation frees up Durant and Devin Booker just enough for the team to look like a threat again.
Winner: James Harden and the Los Angeles Clippers
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From a big-time trade that might not be working to one that clearly is (at least for now), the Los Angeles Clippers bet big on whatever James Harden had left in the tank, and he's rewarding them for their confidence.
The Los Angeles Clippers are 10-2 in December. This month, Harden is averaging 20.3 points, 9.3 assists, 3.1 threes, 1.3 blocks and 1.3 steals while shooting 45.7 percent from deep.
For the entire season, he's clearly having a positive impact on the team and its biggest stars. When Harden, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are all on the floor, L.A. is plus-10.5 points per 100 possessions.
The ultimate success or failure of this experiment won't be determinable till the postseason, but this month has provided plenty of evidence that the trade was at least worth pursuing.
Loser: Draymond Green
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Draymond Green being suspended indefinitely in mid-December was likely reason enough to have him on this side of the ledger.
But the Golden State Warriors almost immediately rattling off a five-game winning streak without him secured his spot here.
For the first time since 2013-14, the team's point differential is better when Draymond does not play, and the difference isn't subtle. Golden State is minus-6.3 points per 100 possessions with Green on the floor and plus-3.2 when he's off.
He helped them win four championships, but slight slippage on the defensive end and the seemingly unending chaos that comes with having him on the roster would make a trade justifiable at this point.
Winner: Ja Morant
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Ja Morant missed Thursday's blowout loss to the Denver Nuggets with an illness, but he's played well enough since returning from suspension to give Memphis Grizzlies fans a glimmer of hope for the play-in tournament.
The team is 4-0 with Morant in the lineup. He's averaging 28.8 points and 8.5 assists. He looks like the same completely uncontainable force on offense, and he already has a game-winner to his credit.
The Grizzlies dug themselves quite a hole during Morant's 25-game absence, but a .500 record might be good enough to finish in the West's top 10 this season.
With the way Morant came out of the gates, a 31-21 closing kick to get to 41-41 overall doesn't feel impossible.
Loser: Los Angeles Lakers
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The Los Angeles Lakers' first third of December couldn't have gone much better.
They won their first three regular-season games of the month and upended the Indiana Pacers in the In-Season Tournament championship game on December 9.
But since then, L.A. is 3-6. Head coach Darvin Ham can't seem to settle on a coherent and consistent starting five.
Anthony Davis and LeBron James are having to carry an alarmingly heavy responsibility given the injury history of the former and the age of the latter.
Winner: Milwaukee Bucks
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It took a few games for the Milwaukee Bucks to figure out the chemistry and offensive balance between Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Somehow, the uneven play through that opening stretch sort of established a narrative on this team that's survived through its dynamite December.
If this month is any indication (and it should be), the Bucks are far better than their reputation and far closer to the Boston Celtics than some are willing to admit.
They're 10-2 in December with a net rating that trails only the Philadelphia 76ers (who had the luxury of playing Washington Wizards twice, the Atlanta Hawks, the Detroit Pistons twice, the Charlotte Hornets and the Toronto Raptors, to name a few). As mentioned earlier, they're scoring a seemingly impossible 126.9 points per 100 possessions, and those two superstars who were supposedly struggling to figure out each other's games are dominating.
This month alone, Giannis is averaging 32.3 points, 11.2 rebounds and 6.9 assists, while Lillard is adding 25.9 points, 7.1 assists and 4.0 threes.
Loser: Indiana Pacers
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Tyrese Haliburton did his best to relieve the sting of an underwhelming month with a 21-point, 20-assist, zero-turnover masterpiece against the Chicago Bulls on the 28th, but the Indiana Pacers have looked a bit like their In-Season Tournament co-finalist in December.
They're 4-6 since the midseason detour through Las Vegas. Two teams are now nipping at their heels for the distinction of being the league's best offense, and they still can't stop anyone on the other end.
If we didn't already know it, this stretch has perhaps taught us that the Pacers need at least one more defensive specialist to start alongside Myles Turner. They may have the assets and contracts to go get OG Anunoby, especially if the earlier slide about the Raptors is true.
Winner: Denver Nuggets
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The defending-champion Denver Nuggets were saddled with an absolutely brutal schedule to start this season.
That challenge was compounded by 14 injury-induced absences for Jamal Murray.
But now that Murray is back and the team is finally emerging from the nightmarish portion of its calendar (the Nuggets have one of the easier remaining schedules in the West), Denver looks more like the team that cruised to a 16-4 playoff record six months ago.
In December, Nikola Jokić is averaging 22.6 points, 10.8 rebounds and 10.3 assists, while Murray is adding 20.8 points, 4.0 assists, 2.4 threes and a 40.0 three-point percentage.
For the entire season, the Nuggets are a juggernaut-like plus-19.5 points per 100 possessions when both stars are on the floor.
Loser: Scoot Henderson
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This one could go either way, actually.
After missing much of November with an injury, he's appeared in every Portland Trail Blazers game in December, and some of his raw numbers are way up.
For the month, he's averaging 14.3 points and 4.5 assists in 27.6 minutes.
But this run hasn't been good enough to change the fact that he's been, at least statistically, one of the worst rookies in the league this season.
In December, Henderson shot 38.6 percent from the field and 32.6 percent from deep while turning the ball over 2.8 times per game.
The biggest problem, of course, is his inability to knock down shots. An inconsistent form may be to blame there. He's still getting used to NBA contests and closeouts, too. If that ever comes around, the rest of his game should open up quite a bit.
Winner: Luka Dončić
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With Kyrie Irving missing most of the month with an injury, Luka Dončić has had to do some absurdly heavy lifting. He's been more than up to the task.
In December alone, he's averaging 37.4 points, 11.2 assists, 9.0 rebounds, 4.3 threes, 1.5 steals and 0.9 blocks, and he's plus-48 in 12 games.
As crazy as this is to say, though, we've seen stretches a little like this from Luka before, at least in terms of those raw numbers.
What sets this month—and really this entire season—apart is the consistency with which Dončić is hitting his outside shots.
In December, he's shooting 38.0 percent from deep. For the season, he's at a career-high 38.4 percent, and he's made 68-of-173 (39.3 percent) step-back triples.
For years, the only real knock on Luka (at least offensively) was that he was inaccurate from deep. Even that could be explained away a bit by bringing up the degree of difficulty and his role in the offense, but the numbers were the numbers. He hit 33.8 percent of his career three-point attempts prior to this season, and "just imagine how good he'd be with a consistent long ball" was a common refrain.
Well, we don't have to imagine anymore. Luka's figured out that part of his game, and the results are astounding.
Loser: Jalen Green
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While the rest of the Houston Rockets, including younger players like Jabari Smith Jr. and Alperen Şengün, are taking off, Jalen Green is still struggling with the same issues that have plagued him throughout his short career.
He's taking too many long twos. His three-pointers aren't going in at a high enough rate. He turns the ball over too much for a player who's generally hunting his own shot, and he often seems invisible on the defensive end.
All of that has led to a below-average estimated plus-minus, a way-below-average true shooting percentage and an alarmingly bad impact on the team's bottom line.
In December, the Rockets are minus-10.3 points per 100 possessions when Green is on the floor and plus-16.5 when he's off. For any player, that's a shocking swing. For a starter, it feels almost impossible.
Winner: Joel Embiid
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Joel Embiid won the 2022-23 MVP despite several numbers suggesting it should've gone to Nikola Jokić. Following up that somewhat controversial win with another playoff dud and second-round exit (plus Jokić's title run on the other side of the bracket) made it hard to imagine he'd ever overtake his rival in the "best player in the world" conversation.
But this December more than closed the gap.
In fact, a lot of the numbers that favored Jokić last season, like estimated plus-minus, now say Embiid has been the best player in the league in 2023-24. A truly unreal stretch over the past few weeks is responsible for the surge.
This month, Embiid is averaging 40.2 points, 12.6 rebounds, 11.2 free-throw attempts, 4.9 assists, 2.1 blocks and 1.4 steals.
Say all you want about a soft schedule or the phantom foul calls, but the numbers are the numbers (and one of his two 50-point performances this month came against the Minnesota Timberwolves).
Perhaps more importantly, there's clearly a difference in Embiid's approach to the game this season.
Empowered by new head coach Nick Nurse and a less predictable attack than the pick-and-roll heavy one run by James Harden the past two seasons, Embiid is now creating more for teammates. Everyone's getting the chance to touch the ball a bit more, and that obviously hasn't cost the big man any scoring opportunities.
At this point, he's now in the same realm as Harden and the Clippers when it comes to needing to prove it in the playoffs. But this is the best Embiid has ever played, which is pretty wild considering he just won an MVP.
Loser: Eastern Conference Cellar-Dwellers
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The Detroit Pistons aren't the only win-loss disaster in the Eastern Conference.
In December, the Pistons (minus-14.7), Charlotte Hornets (minus-14.5) and Washington Wizards (minus-11.9) all have net ratings lower than minus-10.
All feel like absolute gimmes on the schedule. All could still get worse before the trade deadline if they choose to more aggressively pursue a bottom-three record and a 14.0 percent chance at the 2024 No. 1 pick.
Bojan Bogdanović, Alec Burks, Joe Harris, Terry Rozier, Gordon Hayward, Kyle Kuzma, Tyus Jones and Jordan Poole, just to name a few, should all be available.
Winner: Western Conference Up-and-Comers
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Meanwhile, the Western Conference looks like as much of a juggernaut as it ever has.
Beating the San Antonio Spurs and Portland Trail Blazers is still a foregone conclusion for most teams, but the Memphis Grizzlies just got Ja Morant back. There goes one walkover opponent. Almost every other roster in the rest of the conference has star power and the ability to beat just about anyone on any given night.
Rudy Gobert, Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves aren't slowing down. They're 9-3 this month. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams and the Oklahoma City Thunder are 8-3. The New Orleans Pelicans, Houston Rockets and Sacramento Kings are all above .500 this month, too.
One of the common traits of all those teams is youth. Stars are still rising in the Western Conference as the calendar year comes to a close.
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