2021 NBA Re-Draft: Cade Cunningham Wouldn't Be No. 1 Right Now, or 2, or 3...
Every NBA draft is met with instant analysis, grades and other reactions, but much of it ignores a pretty important fact: None of us really knows who'll be good and who won't in the moment.
Even two years later, definitives about the 2021 class are probably premature, but we now have a pretty robust sample to draw from.
With the benefit of years of evidence, we can re-draft with more confidence in all of the players below than we had in 2021.
Placements can also be affected by changing philosophies about the game. Skill at all five positions is more important than it's ever been. Size at guard and wing spots can be a huge advantage. Shooting remains vital.
With all of that, numbers and plenty of time spent watching the players from this group, this is how the lottery should play out now, if we assume the entire class is available and we're dealing with 14 generic teams (rather than the order from 2021).
Outside the Lottery
1 of 15
Before we dive into the lottery, though, let's look at a handful of players who nearly made the cut, in no particular order.
- Despite a recent move to the New York Knicks' bench, Quentin Grimes has proved himself a solid fifth starter who can hit open threes and defend the perimeter without taking many opportunities from stars.
- Thanks to injuries and suspensions, Santi Aldama is enjoying a bit of a breakout with 12.0 points per game. Good shooting coming from a 6'11" frame is intriguing, but that's more theory than reality right now.
- Moses Moody is developing into a classic "does all the little stuff" guy, but he just needs to do everything a bit more (or in the case of his shooting, a bit more efficiently) to move into the lottery.
- Sam Hauser looks like he could soon be one of the league's best floor-spacers. Having him outside the top 14 right now almost feels like a mistake, but three-point shooting is still the only box he thoroughly checks. Those in the top 14 probably still have more upside.
- Another sweet-shooting wing, Corey Kispert has actually started showing hints of playmaking ability, too. He's using 0.8 possessions per game as a pick-and-roll ball-handler, which is way up from the 0.4 he got last season.
There are probably others who deserve a mention, such as Jose Alvarado, Bones Hyland and Davion Mitchell, but it's time to dive into the lottery.
14. Cam Thomas
2 of 15
Originally Picked 27th
There are still very real questions about the non-scoring aspects of Cam Thomas' game.
He has a negative estimated plus-minus (one of the most trusted catch-all metrics in NBA front offices), thanks in large part to a defensive estimated plus-minus that ranks all the way down in the first percentile.
Among the 255 players with at least 100 field-goal attempts this season, Thomas is 223rd in potential assists per field-goal attempt.
And for the third time in three seasons, the Brooklyn Nets are worse when he's on the floor. In 2023-24 alone, they're minus-7.1 points per 100 possessions when Thomas is in and plus-6.0 when he's out.
But even with all that, he still sneaks into the top 14. That's how interesting the scoring has been.
Thomas is averaging 24.1 points in 31.7 minutes and shooting 38.8 percent from three. He's 16th in the league in twos made from 10 feet away from the basket and out, despite missing nine games. And he can create and get his own shot off on seemingly any possession.
If some coach can simply convince him to play a bit more dedicated defense and turn some of those created looks into passes, his upside is probably higher than this placement suggests. If not, he's destined to be a heat-check scorer off the bench (which certainly wouldn't be a bad thing).
13. Herbert Jones
3 of 15
Originally Picked 35th
Herbert Jones is a career 33.3 percent three-point shooter. He's averaged under 10 points per game over two seasons and change with the New Orleans Pelicans. For a 6'8" wing who doesn't create a ton of easy looks for himself, those numbers aren't ideal.
But he still found his way into the re-draft lottery behind stellar defense and underrated passing ability.
On the first point, that descriptor isn't an exaggeration. Defensive Player of the Year conversations have long been dominated by big men, but Jones' length (he has a 7-foot wingspan) and awareness on that end make him enough of a menace to give rise to the idea he'll contend for that honor (likely more than once during his career).
And unlike a lot of strong perimeter defenders whose reputations are necessarily built on the eye test, Jones piles up the defensive counting stats too. This season, he's averaging 1.6 steals and 1.1 blocks per game in 30.0 minutes.
And when you combine his efforts there with sneaky-good assist numbers (relative to other defensive specialists), you get a truly unique player.
For his career, Jones has a 10.7 assist percentage, a 2.6 steal percentage and a 2.5 block percentage. Among players with at least 5,000 minutes, no one in league history matches or exceeds all three marks.
12. Jonathan Kuminga
4 of 15
Originally Picked 7th
Jonathan Kuminga's career has yet to take off the way some may have expected. He was a top-five high school recruit, per 247Sports, and top-10 pick in the NBA draft. And even in the NBA, his combination of size and athleticism is uncommon.
That kind of profile has quickly led to stardom for some in the past, so it's easy to look at career marks of 10.0 points, 3.4 rebounds and 1.3 assists per game as underwhelming.
But that ignores the context of Kuminga being drafted by an almost perennial contender in the Golden State Warriors. And it ignores the fact that he's barely 21 years old.
In 2023-24, in part because of multiple suspensions for Draymond Green, Kuminga has gotten more of an opportunity to prove himself.
He's putting up a career-high 12.2 points, finishing well at the rim and impacting Golden State's bottom line. The Warriors are plus-3.8 points per 100 possessions with Kuminga on the floor and minus-1.9 without him.
Ideally, he'd be able to affect the game a bit more as a rebounder, defender and passer, but there's plenty of time for Kuminga to develop.
11. Jalen Johnson
5 of 15
Originally Picked 20th
There's a smaller sample to rely on here than there even is with Kuminga. Jalen Johnson only played 120 total minutes as a rookie with the Atlanta Hawks, logged just 14.9 minutes per game in Year 2 and went down with a wrist injury 15 games into this season.
Those factors lead to a little more guesswork for Johnson than there is with others here, but he looked good enough in those 15 2023-24 appearances to justify this borderline top-10 spot.
He's averaging 14.1 points on just 9.5 shots, 7.3 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.1 steals and 1.0 blocks. That's pretty ridiculous production for someone playing under 30 minutes per game.
And it represents almost exactly what any team would want out of a third or fourth starter.
Johnson shoots well enough (42.5 percent from three) to pry defensive attention away from higher-volume scorers like Trae Young and Dejounte Murray. He'll take on a variety of defensive assignments. He rebounds and is more of a ball-mover than ball-stopper.
10. Jalen Suggs
6 of 15
Originally Picked 5th
Jalen Suggs slipping five spots from where he was originally drafted is more of a comment on this draft class than Suggs himself.
You'll see a bunch of potential stars from here on out. And based on what we've seen from Suggs in 2023-24, the Orlando Magic guard may soon be worthy of that distinction too.
He currently trails only Chet Holmgren and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in defensive estimated plus-minus, a solid indicator of his best and most impactful trait.
Suggs is the kind of perimeter defender who seemingly takes every individual matchup personally. His effort (perhaps the most important ingredient on that end) is relentless. And his anticipation is helping him maintain a spot in the top five for steals per game.
The biggest change for Suggs this season, though, is happening on the other end.
His career-high 12.4 points per game is largely a product of a career-high 1.7 threes and 37.4 three-point percentage. If he can increase his volume a bit, hang on to that percentage and rediscover the playmaking of his rookie year (when he averaged 4.4 assists), he could be, again, a potential star.
9. Trey Murphy III
7 of 15
Originally Picked 17th
After occupying an insignificant role and playing fewer than 1,000 minutes as a rookie, Trey Murphy III quickly ascended to almost-indispensable status for the New Orleans Pelicans.
Since the start of 2022-23, he's averaged 14.6 points and 2.5 threes per game, while shooting 40.6 percent from deep. And his combination of length (he has a 7'1" wingspan) and above-the-rim athleticism makes him a dynamic, switchable perimeter defender.
Those attributes alone would make him an intriguing three-and-D option, but Murphy has at least shown hints of being able to do more.
He's only 23 years old, so there's plenty of time to layer on a bit more playmaking and defense. Three-and-D-plus isn't out of the question.
8. Jalen Green
8 of 15
Originally Picked 2nd
As stated on the Suggs slide, Jalen Green's decline from No. 2 in the 2021 draft is more about everyone else than him.
There is certainly no reason to give up on the Houston Rockets guard now, and this placement is far from a suggestion to do so.
But on numbers alone, it's fair to at least worry about his long-term prospects.
Green's 43rd among players taken in the 2021 draft in career wins over replacement player. He's yet to have a true shooting percentage particularly close to the league average. He's never been close to an average defensive estimated plus-minus. And he often shoots when a pass is probably the wiser option.
But it's really not that difficult to justify keeping him in the top 10. Green will turn 22 in February. He's shown flashes of No. 1-scorer upside. He averaged 22.1 points and 2.5 threes per game last season.
And even in today's supercharged offensive era, having a player this young who's already proved capable of averaging 20-plus points is relatively rare.
Solidifying the rest of his game is well within the bounds of possibility.
7. Josh Giddey
9 of 15
Originally Picked 6th
Size and playmaking are still both very much in vogue. So Josh Giddey being 6'8", having a career average of 6.0 assists per game and being only 21 years old makes him an easy theoretical fit in that trend.
But this season, the lack of scoring and shooting is officially becoming a bit of a concern.
His career three-point percentage is 29.7 (over six points below the league average). He's taking a career-low 1.2 free throws per game. And when he's on the floor with Oklahoma City Thunder teammates Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams, he often disappears from the action.
But players his height, who can legitimately play point guard, are rare. There's still plenty of time for the shot to develop. And while his career numbers (14.4 points, 7.6 rebounds and 6.0 assists per game) are solid, they could look even better if he was in more of a specialized drive-and-kick role and surrounded by shooters.
6. Austin Reaves
10 of 15
Originally Undrafted
There's a loud and often grouchy contingent of anti-Los Angeles Lakers fans who like to discredit Austin Reaves or insist he's not worthy of the level of attention he gets.
There may be a kernel of truth to the complaints. The media can often fixate on the Lakers, and Reaves' foul-baiting probably gets more of a spotlight because of that.
But if you just strip away the potential biases and focus on what Reaves has actually done in the NBA, it's undeniable that he's become one of the best playmakers in this draft class.
During L.A.'s run to the Western Conference Finals last postseason, Reaves averaged 16.9 points, 4.6 assists and 2.4 threes per game, while shooting 44.3 percent from deep. He's followed up that run with 15.2 points, 4.9 assists and 1.7 threes this regular season.
Squeezing that much production out of a situation that includes LeBron James, Anthony Davis and D'Angelo Russell is impressive.
While he may be a target on defense, and his scoring efficiency has fallen a lot closer to earth than where it was in 2022-23, Reaves has proved himself a solid starter or high-end reserve.
5. Cade Cunningham
11 of 15
Originally Picked 1st
Win shares are far from the cutting edge in advanced basketball numbers. And they're not particularly well trusted within NBA front offices. But the minus-0.8 accumulated over the course of Cade Cunningham's career is ahead of only Keon Johnson's minus-0.9 among 2021 draftees.
That, of course, is influenced by the perpetually tanking Detroit Pistons team he's tasked with leading. But his inability to shoot and proneness to give the ball away aren't helping.
Among the 729 players in NBA history with at least as many career three-point attempts as Cunningham, his true shooting percentage is tied for 625th. And among players who match or exceed his career usage percentage, Cunningham is first in turnover percentage.
In sum, those are the numbers of a player who's giving way too many extra possessions to opponents.
But Cunningham is only 22 years old. His 6'6" frame gives him plus size for a lead playmaker. And this season, he's posting career highs in points (22.2), assists (7.0) and threes (1.9) per game.
There's plenty of time for things to improve, and 2023-24 suggests they will.
4. Alperen Şengün
12 of 15
Originally Picked 16th
We certainly can't forecast that Alperen Şengün will get all the way to Nikola Jokić's level, but it's easy to watch the two play and see the vision for the Houston Rockets' 21-year-old playmaking 5.
Even if he maxes out as 80-85 percent of the player Jokić is, that's a perennial All-Star who makes life significantly easier for guards and other scoring teammates.
Şengün is already raising Houston's offensive ceiling, with old-school footwork in the post, his signature "flamingo" shot and averages of 19.7 points and 5.2 assists per game.
And while he's not a high-end rim protector (and probably never will be), he also contributes on the other end with decent awareness, solid rebounding and generally being in the right spots.
3. Franz Wagner
13 of 15
Originally Picked 8th
All-around numbers pretty comfortably favor Şengün in a head-to-head comparison with Franz Wagner, but the 22-year-old Orlando Magic forward gets the edge here based in large part on trends within the game.
The center spot obviously didn't die the way some forecast a few years ago, but it's still harder to find positional versatility there.
Wagner can realistically log minutes at the 2, 3 or 4. Depending on the coach, he might even be a fun small-ball 5.
And like Şengün (though not to the same degree), he can take some pressure off guards by providing a little more creation than forwards traditionally did.
His three-point percentage is way down, but he's not far from average there for his career. And this season, he's putting up 19.8 points, 5.8 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 1.4 threes and 1.1 steals per game.
2. Evan Mobley
14 of 15
Originally Picked 3rd
Evan Mobley has yet to have a bona fide, star-level breakout. In fact, all of his numbers have pretty much hovered around the same level since he entered the NBA.
For his career, the Cleveland Cavaliers big man is averaging a solid but unspectacular 16.0 points, 8.9 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.6 blocks and 0.8 steals per game, while shooting 57.2 percent on twos and 23.0 percent on threes.
But his 98th percentile defensive estimated plus-minus this season illustrates his biggest strength and the driving reason he's still in the top three here.
Even if his average for blocks isn't exorbitant, Mobley is an effective deterrent around the rim. He's better than most bigs when switched onto perimeter players. And he already has a First Team All-Defensive nod on his resume.
Mobley could very well be the Defensive Player of the Year one day. Getting to that level, with even moderate improvements to the rest of his game, would make him a superstar.
1. Scottie Barnes
15 of 15
Originally Picked 4th
After Scottie Barnes seemed to plateau a bit last season, the 2021-22 Rookie of the Year is playing like a full-fledged All-Star in 2023-24.
About a third of the way into the campaign, Barnes is putting up 20.6 points, 9.2 rebounds, 5.7 assists, 2.0 threes, 1.5 steals and 1.3 blocks per game, while shooting 38.1 percent from deep.
And even those marks don't really do his wide-ranging game justice. The 6'7" Toronto Raptors forward with a 7'3" wingspan is also stifling opponents on defense.
He suddenly looks like a bona fide point forward who has the potential to be a solid team's best player on both ends of the floor.
Surrounded by the right supporting cast (which would include plenty of shooters for him to kick out to), he could look like a superstar as soon as right now.
Advanced stats via Basketball Reference, Cleaning the Glass and Dunks & Threes unless otherwise noted.
.jpg?w=600 "Titans President Steps Down")
.jpg?w=600 "Best NFL Free Agents")
