Ranking MLB's Top Contenders for 2024 World Series After Yamamoto Signs with Dodgers
It's never too early to get excited about the World Series, even if the next one won't happen until next year. We can all agree on this concept right?
Yes? Good. Now we can get to arguing over the favorites for the 2024 World Series.
This is sort of a preliminary hearing, with the obvious caveat being that Major League Baseball's 2023-24 offseason is far from over. Cody Bellinger and Blake Snell haven't signed, and neither Corbin Burnes nor Dylan Cease has been traded.
The big pieces, though, are off the board. And two of them are now on the same team, as Japanese ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto decided to join two-time MVP Shohei Ohtani on the Los Angeles Dodgers late Thursday night.
So, what we can do in the meantime is size up World Series contenders based on what they do and don't have right now. That's how I proceeded with these rankings, whereas B/R's Joel Reuter sprinkled in a little future projection in his latest MLB Power Rankings.
So after first touching on some honorable mentions, let's get to counting down the top 10 contenders for next year's championship.
Note: All odds courtesy of DraftKings.
Honorable Mentions
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Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers may have won 92 games this year, but there was a little overachieving at play there. That was merely the latest testament to Craig Counsell's managerial mastery, and now he's elsewhere in the National League Central with the Chicago Cubs.
Oh, and Milwaukee's list of free agents? It's long as heck, and a few of them have already signed elsewhere.
Seattle Mariners
The Mariners might have the best top-to-bottom pitching staff in MLB, but their lineup thins out fast after Julio Rodríguez, J.P. Crawford and Cal Raleigh.
They need to add some guys, clearly. Failing that, maybe they can invent time travel so they can go back and not trade Eugenio Suárez and Jarred Kelenic in salary-dump deals.
St. Louis Cardinals
Even though they're fresh off finishing last in the NL Central, I came (holds thumb and forefinger a half-inch apart) this close to putting the Cardinals in the top 10.
Their roster may be littered with age and durability concerns, but their lineup has oodles of potential and Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn should stabilize what was a volatile rotation in 2023. It's not a convincing situation, necessarily, but it is an intriguing one.
Tampa Bay Rays
Deliberately doubting the Rays heading into 2024 could end up being an unforced error. They are, after all, the Rays. For all their limitations, they've made the playoffs more often than not over the last 15 years.
Yet due to the trade of Tyler Glasnow and, just, so many elbow injuries, the Rays aren't going to have a bunch of talented pitchers next year. Their best offensive player may also be out of the mix. A little bit of doubt therefore seems justified.
10. Toronto Blue Jays
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2023 Record: 89-73, 3rd in AL East
2024 World Series Odds: +1800
What They Have
The Blue Jays should, if nothing else, be a pitching powerhouse in 2024.
They were precisely that this past year, finishing with a 3.79 ERA that ranked fourth in MLB. And this was despite Alek Manoah's best efforts to spoil the fun, as his ERA more than doubled to 5.87 from 2.25 in 2022. For the 25-year-old righty, the only way to go from there is up.
If Manoah returns even halfway to his '22 form in 2024, Toronto's starting five of him, Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi will be the envy of the league.
The bigger question is how much the Blue Jays will hit. To this end, they can at least count on Bo Bichette for a .300-odd average and 20-odd home runs and can otherwise take solace in Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s metrics. And who knows? Maybe Davis Schneider will carry on as a history-making hitter.
What They Don't Have
With respect to those three guys, it was hard enough to be optimistic about Toronto's offense as it was trafficking in basically league-average run scoring in 2023. And now it's just plain incomplete with Matt Chapman, Brandon Belt and Kevin Kiermaier all in free agency.
The Blue Jays know this and, to their credit, they mean to fix it. But until they do, well, they just haven't fixed anything, have they?
9. Minnesota Twins
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2023 Record: 87-75, 1st in AL Central
2024 World Series Odds: +2500
What They Have
They may have only won 87 games this year, but let's not forget that the Twins also won their first playoff game since 2004 and their first playoff series since 2002.
This ascension had a lot to do with an offense that co-led the American League with 233 home runs and which was also fifth in MLB in the second half. All the key contributors—i.e., Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien and Max Kepler—are currently due back in 2024.
Then there's the possibility of Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton being the dynamic duo they were in 2022, as opposed to the disastrous duo they were in 2023:
- 2022: .833 OPS, 50 HR, 8.3 fWAR
- 2023: .718 OPS, 35 HR, 1.9 fWAR
The Twins are also set to return several top members of what was arguably the AL's best pitching staff. Namely, Pablo López will still lead the rotation and Jhoan Duran will still be throwing gas in the ninth inning.
What They Don't Have
As good as it was this year, Minnesota's pitching staff has been taken down a peg or two by way of Sonny Gray's, Kenta Maeda's and Emilio Pagán's departures in free agency. Gray most of all, as such things as a 2.79 ERA and 184 innings are not easily replaced.
Otherwise, the plan to move Buxton back to center field after he didn't play there at all in 2023 because of persistent knee issues has "bad idea" written all over it. If the Twins can bring back Michael A. Taylor, they should.
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8. New York Yankees
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2023 Record: 82-80, 4th in AL East
2024 World Series Odds: +900
What They Have
Take a look at FanGraphs' WAR projections for 2024, and they'll have you thinking that the Yankees are set to be one of MLB's five best teams.
There are reasons to believe it, starting with how one of the club's biggest weaknesses has gone "poof" this winter. Juan Soto is but one of three new left-handed hitters alongside Alex Verdugo and Trent Grisham, and they hit more home runs on their own (61) this year than the Yankees got from all their lefty hitters (47).
As for what kind of offensive duo Soto and Aaron Judge could be, how about a historic kind? If they both top a .400 on-base percentage and 40 home runs, they'll be only the fifth pair of teammates to have ever done so.
On the other side of the ball, the Yankees have Cy Young Award winner Gerrit Cole and a Clay Holmes-led bullpen that topped MLB with a 3.34 ERA this year. What's not to like?
What They Don't Have
That WAR projection is nice, but are we seriously meant to buy that the Yankees were one great hitter and two middling hitters away from breaking through in 2023? Please.
Let's also not gloss over that the Soto trade cost them Michael King, who had been projected as their No. 3 starter. That's one more question mark for a rotation that arguably had nothing but question marks after Cole even with King.
7. Arizona Diamondbacks
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2023 Record: 84-78, 2nd in NL West
2024 World Series Odds: +3000
There were strong "lucky to be there" vibes just when the Diamondbacks got to the World Series, and they didn't get weaker as the Texas Rangers dispatched them in five games.
Still, let's acknowledge that the Snakes were an elite team for a better part of 2023. Like so:
- July 2-Aug. 11: 7-25 (.219 W/L%)
- All Other Dates: 77-53 (.592 W/L%)
With Lourdes Gurriel Jr. back and Eugenio Suárez set to join him, Arizona's offense should have a little more thump in 2024 than it did this past year, wherein it primarily got by on baserunning. Still more will be in store if Rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll is more consistent with his power after hitting just four of his 25 total homers after July 25.
Otherwise, Arizona should excel in run prevention. Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Brandon Pfaadt and newcomer Eduardo Rodriguez could be a top-tier foursome of starters, not least of which because they'll have one of MLB's best defenses behind them.
What They Don't Have
As much as anything, what the D-backs lack is a straight path to the top of the NL West. That will require going through a Los Angeles Dodgers team that...well, we'll get into it in more detail later, but suffice it to say the word "stacked" comes to mind.
And even if it should be more powerful, it still doesn't feel like Arizona's lineup is powerful enough. Among this year's playoff teams, only the Milwaukee Brewers (165) hit fewer home runs than the Diamondbacks (166).
6. Baltimore Orioles
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2023 Record: 101-61, 1st in AL East
2024 World Series Odds: +1600
What They Have
The Orioles' fortunes changed for good on May 21, 2022. That was the day Adley Rutschman debuted, and since then they have the fourth-most wins of any team in MLB.
And while the Orioles have red flags in the here and now, they shouldn't be overblown.
As much as the O's could use another starter, they're returning almost everyone from a rotation that ranked fifth in MLB with a 3.74 ERA in the second half of this year. This includes Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez, who both have ace potential.
Though Baltimore's offense hit the skids at the end of the year, overall it did a little bit of everything in averaging 5.0 runs per game. And as soon as Opening Day, No. 1 prospect Jackson Holliday could debut in 2024 and treat everyone to a display of the skills he used to hit .323 with a .941 OPS in the minors this year.
What They Don't Have
It's better than nothing that the Orioles have tabbed Craig Kimbrel to fill in for Félix Bautista while he's recovering from Tommy John surgery. But as Philadelphia Phillies fans know all too well, Kimbrel's effectiveness goes just as easily as it comes.
And as good as Baltimore's starters were in the latter half of '23, another starter is undeniably needed. At the least, they'll need someone to account for the 192 innings that Kyle Gibson took with him to St. Louis.
5. Texas Rangers
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2023 Record: 90-72, 2nd in AL West
2024 World Series Odds: +1100
What They Have
Even before they set a (normal) postseason record with 30 home runs en route to winning the World Series, the Rangers were a terrifying offensive force in 2023.
They ended up with at least a share of the AL lead for runs, home runs, average, on-base and slugging. Lest anyone think it can't get any better than that, it might.
Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Adolis García will all be back in 2024, which will also mark the full-season debut for Evan Carter. After posting a .917 OPS in the playoffs, he'll enter next season as arguably the favorite for the AL Rookie of the Year.
The obvious red flag here is that the Rangers won't have Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom or Tyler Mahle on the mound for the first half of 2024, but the operative word there is "first." The important thing is that all three should be back in time to make an impact in October.
What They Don't Have
Save for signing Kirby Yates, the Rangers haven't upgraded their bullpen. This is asking for trouble, as even a good October shouldn't redeem it after it produced 0.0 rWAR in the regular season.
And even if Scherzer, deGrom and Mahle are due back eventually in 2024, well, how is anyone not supposed to worry about Texas' rotation? It's also missing Jordan Montgomery, after all, and its top three healthy starters will all be at least 32 years old come Opening Day.
4. Houston Astros
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2023 Record: 90-72, 1st in AL West
2024 World Series Odds: +1000
What They Have
The Astros as a World Series contender? Yeah, it's a layup given that they've made it as far as the American League Championship Series seven years in a row.
What could propel them that far again in 2024 is their offense. Jose Altuve, Yordan Álvarez, Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman are as good a foursome as there is, and September and October showed what José Abreu can still do when he has a healthy back.
Where Houston was weak this year was on the mound, but it's worth bearing in mind that it was only later in the season that they got Justin Verlander back. Assuming Framber Valdez sticks around, the two of them should be one of the AL's top ace duos.
Next year will also offer a chance at redemption for Cristian Javier, who had a down 2023 season, and Hunter Brown, who failed to launch as a rookie even as he racked up strikeouts and ground balls.
What They Don't Have
Though it can be done, one really has to try to feign optimism for Houston's pitching. Notably, Verlander turns 41 on Feb. 20, 2024 and there are holes in the bullpen left by Hector Neris', Phil Maton's and Ryne Stanek's free agency.
More broadly, those holes have only worsened what was already a shortage of depth. If even a few things go wrong for the Astros in 2024, they could be in serious trouble.
3. Philadelphia Phillies
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2023 Record: 90-72, 2nd in NL East
2024 World Series Odds: +1100
What They Have
Relative to how high-powered it was supposed to be, the Phillies offense spent most of this season letting everyone down.
That all changed in early August, uncoincidentally right around when that standing ovation set fire to Trea Turner's bat. From Aug. 5 through the end of the season, he, Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber were all scorching as the Phillies ranked second in MLB in scoring.
There's little, if any, reason to think the Phillies' offense won't pick up where it left off in 2024. And with Aaron Nola back on a seven-year, $175 million contract, the pitching should be there as well.
Phillies pitchers ranked second in rWAR this year, though that was hardly all due to Nola and co-ace Zack Wheeler. The team actually had a good bullpen for a change, and a full year of hotshot righty Orion Kerkering could make it even better in 2024.
What They Don't Have
Relief pitching may no longer be a thorn in the Phillies' side, but they're still a defensively challenged team. To wit, they accounted for minus-30 Defensive Runs Saved this year.
It's also not hard to imagine a scenario wherein the pitching, though still deep, is effectively leaderless. Nola is coming off a subpar 2023 season and Wheeler will turn 34 on May 30, 2024.
2. Atlanta
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2023 Record: 104-58, 1st in NL East
2024 World Series Odds: +700
What They Have
Despite all the ruckus that's been happening on the other side of the country, it was honestly tempting to put Atlanta in the No. 1 spot on this list anyway.
Their 2023 offense was one of the finest MLB has ever seen, not only tying the single-season record with 307 home runs but also tacking on 132 stolen bases and a league-best .276 batting average.
Even if Ronald Acuña Jr. doesn't go 40-70 again in 2024, the difference could potentially be made up by Jarred Kelenic. As disappointing as Atlanta's new left fielder has been as a major leaguer, he's still only 24 and two years removed from being a top-five prospect.
It was Atlanta's pitching that let them down this year, but they know they have a legit ace in Spencer Strider and potentially two more if Max Fried and Charlie Morton stay healthy. Otherwise, a bullpen that was a strikeout machine this year is mostly intact.
What They Don't Have
Though Bryce Elder was an All-Star this year, Atlanta would be better off if he was the team's No. 5 starter and not its No. 4 starter.
Even as recently as Thursday afternoon, this wouldn't have been a big enough gripe for me to keep Atlanta out of the No. 1 spot. But since a collision course with the Dodgers is very much possible in 2024, they might now want to pull off that deal for Dylan Cease.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
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2023 Record: 100-62, 1st in NL West
2024 World Series Odds: +400
What They Have
One look at the Dodgers roster might have you hearing Emperor Palpatine saying, "Now, witness the firepower of this fully armed and operational battle station!"
Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman all in the same lineup? That's unfair, as the three of them would have combined for a 1.006 OPS and 112 home runs this past year. There is a drop-off after them, granted, but not to any easy outs in the next six slots.
With Yamamoto also aboard, the Dodgers rotation is loaded with capital-S Stuff. He has not one, not two, not three but four nasty pitches. For their parts, fellow newcomer Tyler Glasnow and Bobby Miller were among the leaders in Stuff+ this year, while Walker Buehler was a Stuff+ standout in 2021 prior to his second Tommy John surgery.
As for the bullpen, all it did was lead MLB in fWAR this year. With most key members due back, it should be a shutdown unit again in 2024.
What They Don't Have
If there are any grounds to doubt the Dodgers, one is that their offense isn't as deep as Atlanta's and another is that there's some question about how many innings they're going to get out of Yamamoto, Glasnow, Buehler and Miller.
But that's really it. Even if the Dodgers aren't the stone-cold lock for the 2024 World Series—because, seriously, Atlanta is really good—that some may think they are, it is hard to side against them now that they have this many stars.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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