NFL 2023 MVP Odds: Tips on the Favorites and Best Values for Week 15
Week 14 saw Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott take another step toward being named the NFL's Most Valuable Player.
Prescott and the Cowboys handled Jalen Hurts—another MVP front-runner—and the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday night, winning 33-13. Prescott finished the game 24-of-39 for 271 yards and two touchdowns and evened the score with Hurts in head-to-head matchups.
With one month to go, Prescott has become the odds-on favorite, and it would seem that the MVP is his award to lose. However, this does not mean that he'll simply run away with it. Week 14 helped his case, but it's still a tight race at the top.
Let's take a look at the updated MVP picture and some betting tips for Week 15.
Find the latest NFL MVP odds at DraftKings.
NFL MVP Favorites Entering Week 15
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Dak Prescott +150 (bet $100 to win $150)
Brock Purdy +185
Lamar Jackson +475
Jalen Hurts +650
Tyreek Hill +1600
Patrick Mahomes +1600
Josh Allen +2000
Tua Tagovailoa +2000
If You Believe in Prescott or Purdy, Buy in Now
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As we noted last week, bettors aren't going to find a ton of value among the heavy favorites at this point in the season. It's beginning to feel like a two-player race between Prescott and San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy.
Prescott has the eye-popping stats, including an NFL-high 28 touchdown passes, but Purdy has been the more efficient signal-caller. He still leads the NFL in completion percentage (70.2), yards per attempt (9.9), passer rating (116.9) and QBR (74.7).
The argument against Purdy is that San Francisco's skill group is so elite that his job has been relatively easy. If you watch the film, though, Purdy is making some incredible plays.
"He literally can make every throw and you can't show a throw that he can't make," 49ers tackle Trent Williams said, per ESPN's Nick Wagoner.
Both Prescott and Purdy will have chances to cement their MVP cases over the final month.
The Cowboys finish at the Buffalo Bills, at the Miami Dolphins, against the Detroit Lions and at the Washington Commanders. The 49ers are at the Arizona Cardinals, against the Baltimore Ravens, at the Commanders and against the Los Angeles Rams.
Prescott has a chance to improve his 3-3 road record while beating quarterbacks like Tua Tagovailoa and Jared Goff. Purdy has a chance to add Baltimore's Lamar Jackson to the list of top QBs he's beaten head-to-head—Purdy already has wins over Prescott and Hurts.
While the odds aren't overly enticing for either favorite, if you believe in Prescott or Purdy, now is the time to buy a few shares. If one of them starts to outpace the other, we'll be looking at even-money odds sooner than later.
Lamar Jackson Remains the Best Value Among Favorites
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We've repeatedly mentioned that it would be unwise to forget about Jackson. While the MVP race is currently an NFC-centric affair, the Ravens are doing impressive things over in the other conference.
Jackson just helped Baltimore beat the Rams in overtime, finishing with 316 passing yards, three touchdowns, an interception and 70 rushing yards.
The 26-year-old remains the league's best dual-threat signal-caller, and he's having the best season of his career since he was named the unanimous MVP in 2019. Also, Baltimore still has a chance of finishing with the league's best record—which would look quite good on any MVP resume.
At +475, Jackson represents a much better value than Prescott or Purdy, and if either of them slips in the final month, Jackson could slide in and claim the award. Beating the 49ers in Week 16 would be massive.
Hurts is still in the mix too, but having split the series with Prescott and losing to Purdy, he has become much more of a longshot than any of the top three.
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Forget About Tua Tagovailoa
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Tagovailoa was an early MVP front-runner, but Monday's loss to the Tennessee Titans likely ended any realistic chance he had of winning the award.
The argument against the 25-year-old has been that he benefits too much from having an elite receiver in Tyreek Hill. Monday's loss only strengthened that argument.
Hill spent a good chunk of the game sidelined with an ankle injury, and the Miami offense suffered tremendously. Against a Titans defense ranked 22nd in passing yards allowed, the Dolphins failed to score an offensive point in the first half.
After Hill returned in the second half, the offense found new life, scoring 20 points but still failing to notch a victory. Tagovailoa just isn't the same without Hill in the lineup, and Hill is the more enticing MVP bet at +1600.
Hill is still on pace to break 2,000 receiving yards, though his ankle injury is worth monitoring. If he sets a new single-season receiving record and any of the top quarterbacks falter, Hill could still become the first non-QB MVP since 2012.
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