NFL 2023 MVP Odds: Tips on the Favorites and Best Values for Week 14
Week 13 saw some interesting new developments in the NFL MVP race, beginning with a thrilling performance from Dak Prescott on Thursday night.
In a back-and-forth battle with the Seattle Seahawks, Prescott threw for 299 yards and three touchdowns while leading the Dallas Cowboys to a comeback victory.
On Sunday, we saw Brock Purdy out-duel former MVP front-runner Jalen Hurts as the San Francisco 49ers cruised past the Philadelphia Eagles. Purdy finished that game with 314 passing yards and four touchdowns.
Purdy has now emerged as the new MVP favorite, though the race is still incredibly tight. Let's take a look at the updated MVP picture and some wagering tips for Week 14.
Find the latest NFL MVP odds at DraftKings.
NFL MVP Favorites Entering Week 14
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Brock Purdy +300 (bet $100 to win $300)
Jalen Hurts +350
Dak Prescott +350
Tua Tagovailoa +850
Patrick Mahomes +850
Lamar Jackson +900
Tyreek Hill +1600
Christian McCaffrey +1600
C.J. Stroud +3000
Don't Expect Value Among the Top Favorites
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The race between Purdy, Prescott and Hurts is now tight, and it's not hard to envision any of the three winning the award. The problem is that it's not hard to see any of them losing out either.
Purdy leads the NFL in completion percentage (70.2), yards per attempt (9.6) and passer rating (116.1). He's tied with Prescott for the top QBR (75.6). He also now owns head-to-head wins over Prescott and Hurts.
However, Purdy is going to find it hard to escape the "game manager" moniker, which could hurt him at voting time. He has a stellar supporting cast headlined by Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel, and many of his biggest plays have involved huge yardage after the catch.
It's unfair to criticize Purdy for maximizing his skill group or for operating within the confines of Kyle Shanahan's offense, but some voters will inevitably want to see more splash plays from the quarterback himself.
Prescott and Hurts have both produced those splash plays. Prescott leads the NFL with 26 touchdown passes, while Hurts is two rushing touchdowns shy of Cam Newton's single-season record for a quarterback.
However, many of Hurts' numbers are down from last season, and Prescott has beaten only one team above .500 since knocking off the 1-0 New York Jets in Week 2. A loss by either quarterback in this weekend's Cowboys-Eagles matchup could all but knock one of them out of the running.
It's simply too close to call between the top three, and the odds don't provide a ton of value for any of them. If you have a favorite, by all means, buy in, but understand that the potential reward at this point doesn't dramatically outweigh the risk.
Don't Forget About Lamar Jackson
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While the MVP race is currently centered in the NFC, that doesn't mean a quarterback from the AFC won't sneak in and claim it.
Baltimore Ravens signal-caller Lamar Jackson might be the best positioned to do just that.
While Jackson hasn't produced eye-popping statistics across the board, he remains the league's best dual-threat quarterback. He also has the Ravens in the hunt for the AFC's No. 1 seed and has beaten several terrific teams.
This separates Jackson a bit from Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. While Miami shares Baltimore's 9-3 record and currently holds the top seed, the Dolphins are 1-3 against currently at .500 or better.
Jackson and the Ravens, meanwhile, are 5-3 against such teams.
Also, Jackson will have an opportunity to do what Prescott and Hurts haven't and beat Purdy in a head-to-head matchup in Week 16. He'll also face Tagovailoa the following week. If Baltimore wins out, Jackson could get his second MVP nod, and at +900, he offers a fair bit of value with five weeks to go.
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is technically still in the mix as well, though a loss to Hurts and Kansas City's up-and-down play make him a longer shot than the odds would suggest.
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Consider a Flier on Tyreek Hill
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There are scenarios in which enough dominoes fall that a quarterback isn't named MVP at all. Hurts could fall to Prescott this weekend, Prescott could fall to Tagovailoa in Week 16, Jackson could fall to Purdy in Week 16 before beating Tagovailoa the next week, and Purdy might simply be discounted.
Should a situation like that unfold, there's a chance that Dolphins receiver Tyreek Hill sneaks in and steals the award. He could pull a few votes away from Tagovailoa anyway—just as McCaffrey might take away from Purdy—and he's racing toward a chance at history.
With an NFL-leading 1,481 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns, he's on pace for 2,098 receiving yards. That would break Calvin Johnson's record of 1,964 yards in a season.
While Hill breaking Johnson's record would come with the caveat that he's gotten to play in an expanded season, that won't hold much weight if Hill sets the new high-water mark before Week 18.
Awards voters love a good story. Hill proclaiming in the offseason that he'll break 2,000 yards and then actually going out and doing it would certainly qualify.
It is, of course, unlikely that we'll see a non-quarterback win the MVP for the first time since Adrian Peterson did it in 2012. However, at +1600, Hill is still worth a flier.
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