Tanking Isn't an Option for Bears, Patriots, Giants, Other Struggling NFL Teams
Entering Week 15, a large swath of the NFL is still in playoff contention. In the AFC alone, a half-dozen teams are in the wild-card hunt with a record of 7-6. For roughly a quarter of the league, though, the playoffs are out of reach.
Nine teams that currently hold 2024 first-round picks—a group that does not include the Carolina Panthers—have five or fewer wins. They are now largely playing for the future.
While a subsection of these teams' fanbases may be rooting for losses and improved draft positioning over the final month, there are multiple reasons why flat-out tanking isn't an option.
It starts with the fact that there is no such thing as a "can't-miss" prospect worth tanking for, and there's little telling how the 2024 draft will unfold anyway. Also, teams have become increasingly willing to trade in Round 1—we saw seven deals last spring—which means tanking isn't the only way to secure a coveted prospect.
There are also franchise-specific factors, which are what we'll dive into today.
Chicago Bears
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Tanking isn't in the Chicago Bears' game plan, at least according to wide receiver D.J. Moore.
"Our plan is to win out," he said, per 670 The Score.
There are two big reasons why Chicago should try to do exactly that. The first is that it owns the Panthers' first-round pick and is likely to secure the No. 1 selection regardless of its own record.
While it could also secure a second top-10 pick by losing, throwing the towel in would be a mistake. The Bears will have a big decision to make at quarterback in 2024, and it involves both the draft and incumbent starter Justin Fields.
The 24-year-old has shown growth as a passer this season and has recently proved he can win from the pocket as well as on the run. Over his last three games, he has gone 2-1 as the starter while posting a passer rating of at least 87.3 in each contest.
However, the Bears need to see as large of a sample size as possible before deciding to stick with Fields over a top QB prospect such as Caleb Williams or Drake Maye.
The 2021 No. 11 pick has been wildly inconsistent over the course of his career and has a concerning penchant for fumbles (35 in 36 games).
If he doesn't continue to pass the eye test, the Bears may consider trading him instead of drafting a new QB or again trading the No. 1 overall selection.
Teams like the Cleveland Browns and Green Bay Packers will provide a stiff test for Fields over the final month. Chicago can't accurately evaluate its quarterback in those games if it isn't playing to win.
New England Patriots
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The New England Patriots would have the No. 2 pick if the season ended today, and they don't have an evaluation to make with a quarterback like Fields.
New England has clearly soured on Mac Jones, and while Bailey Zappe played well for a half in Week 14, he probably isn't the long-term answer, either.
For New England, things are a bit more complicated and they involve the future of head coach Bill Belichick. There has been plenty of speculation about his future in the NFL and whether it will be with the Patriots.
"I really honestly think only three people know what's going to happen next year: Bill, RKK [Robert Kenneth Kraft, the Patriots owner] and Jonathan [Kraft, the team's president]," former Patriots receiver Julian Edelman told Fox NFL Kickoff (h/t Jaclyn Hendricks of the New York Post).
If New England plans to keep Belichick or have a successor already in mind, like inside linebacker coach Jerod Mayo, then it needs to spend the final month evaluating players and coaches such as offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien.
The offense hasn't taken many positive strides under O'Brien this season, but it's fair to wonder how much blame should be heaped on Jones. Zappe, after all, did throw three touchdown passes in his second start of the season.
Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated told NBS Sports Boston's Sports Sunday that Mayo would be open to keeping O'Brien if he becomes New England's head coach next season.
If the Patriots decide to draft a new quarterback, they can likely trade up to secure one they're in love with. However, Bryce Young's lack of development in Carolina this season is the latest example of why the situation in which a player lands is more important than where he's drafted.
New England must determine where its biggest offensive holes are and whether O'Brien is the right coordinator to mentor the next quarterback of the future. Vetting the offense, likely sans Jones, over the final month would be invaluable in that regard.
Arizona Cardinals
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The Arizona Cardinals are in a situation very similar to Chicago's. Head coach Jonathan Gannon and general manager Monti Ossenfort joined the franchise in the offseason and inherited quarterback Kyler Murray and his $230.5 million contract.
That contract makes it difficult to simply pull the plug on the 26-year-old and draft a new signal-caller. His deal will have $81.5 million in dead money after the season.
The question for Arizona's newest front office is whether a prospect such as Williams or Maye is a clear-cut superior option to Murray. While he's never won anything of note, he is a two-time Pro Bowler with an intriguing skill set.
And while Williams and Maye are regarded as elite prospects, they're still entirely unproven at the pro level—and they're not even the consensus top prospects in the 2024 draft.
The Bleacher Report Scouting Department recently ranked Maye and Williams third and fourth, respectively, on its updated big board. Ohio State receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. and Georgia tight end Brock Bowers came in as B/R's first- and second-ranked prospects.
Arizona could easily decide that pairing Murray with Harrison, Bowers or Penn State offensive tackle Olumuyiwa Fashanu would be a better move than dumping Murray and pivoting to a rookie QB.
To come to that conclusion, though, the Cardinals need to get a longer look at Murray in Drew Petzing's offense. Because of last season's torn ACL, he has made only four starts this season, which is a small sample size, even if the Cardinals have plenty of previous tape.
And the Cardinals can't tell Murray, who is playing for his job, to go out and lose. If Arizona had any interest in tanking for a new QB, that option went out the window when he returned to the starting lineup.
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Washington Commanders
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The Washington Commanders gained a new ownership group during the offseason, and more changes are likely incoming.
Washington already fired defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio, and it would be a mild surprise if head coach Ron Rivera isn't released at the end of the season.
He has yet to deliver a playoff win for Washington, and new owners typically want to make their own hires. Jimmy Haslam fired Pat Shurmur after purchasing the Cleveland Browns, and David Tepper fired Rivers less than two years after purchasing the Panthers in 2018. Washington's new ownership group, led by Josh Harris, is likely to follow suit.
Before the Commanders make sweeping changes, though, they need to decide if members of the coaching staff, such as offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, are worth retaining.
Bieniemy has done solid work with second-year quarterback Sam Howell this season, and while he leads the NFL with 14 interceptions (tied), he's also thrown for 3,466 yards and 18 scores.
Even if the Commanders determine that a prospect like Williams or Maye is vastly superior to Howell, they have to guarantee they're providing him with the right environment for success.
The B/R Scouting Department labeled Maye as next year's most pro-ready prospect, and even he has flaws.
"Maye does have moments where he doesn't see or react to post-snap movement. In particular, late safety rotations don't always trigger the response out of him that you'd like to see," Derrik Klassen wrote.
The Commanders have to gauge their roster and their staff before turning their attention to external candidates. They can't tell a coach who may be on his way out to go out and lose for draft positioning.
New York Giants
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To be fair, the New York Giants may want to think about turning the page on quarterback Daniel Jones.
The four-year, $160 million extension he received in the offseason already looks like a massive misstep, and the 26-year-old is now out for the year with a torn Achilles after posting a career-low 70.5 passer rating when healthy this season.
However, unless teams like the Panthers, Patriots and Cardinals keep racking up wins, New York has already won too many games to realistically land Williams or Maye without a trade.
Aside from quarterback, New York's biggest offensive need is that of a top-tier pass-catcher. Landing Harrison would be ideal, but the 2024 class is loaded with elite receiver prospects. Florida State's Keon Coleman is B/R's seventh-ranked prospect, while Washington's Rome Odunze is ninth.
The Giants should be able to land a top receiver prospect—or a player at a different position—without tanking.
Head coach Brian Daboll, offensive coordinator Mike Kafka and defensive coordinator Don Martindale. This trio appeared to be the Giants' long-term answer during last year's surprise playoff season, but for much of 2023, last season has appeared to be a mirage, though that has changed recently.
For much of the season, New York has too often been flat-out bad on both sides of the ball. Things have been better during the current three-game winning streak, notably with Tommy DeVito at quarterback.
The Giants need to see if Daboll can continue building momentum over the final month and need to pinpoint where their roster's biggest deficiencies reside.
Oh, and they are now just a game behind the Green Bay Packers for the NFC's final wild-card spot.
Tennessee Titans
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Things are fairly straightforward for the Tennessee Titans, which are currently starting second-round rookie Will Levis at quarterback.
They have the rest of 2023 to evaluate the rookie before even pondering a move for a top 2024 signal-caller. Tennessee faced a similar decision last year, and it drafted the Kentucky product despite seeing only three starts from 2022 third-round pick Malik Willis.
Now, Levis has performed like a much more pro-ready prospect as a rookie than Willis did in his handful of starts, so it would be unfair to call that decision a mistake. But it could be an error if Tennessee turns the page at quarterback only to discover Levis has all the makings of a franchise signal-caller.
With players like former starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill and standout running back Derrick Henry set to be free agents in 2024, change is coming to Tennessee.
Changes won't, however, include head coach Mike Vrabel, according to Dianna Russini of The Athletic.
"Based on multiple conversations with high-ranking Titans officials, the franchise strongly and collectively believes it has the right coach for long-term success," she wrote on Nov. 23.
The Titans now need to decide if they also have the right quarterback for long-term success. Simply put, they have to appraise Levis over the final month of the season, and they have to do it by telling him to go out and win—as he did against the Miami Dolphins on Monday night.
Las Vegas Raiders
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Aidan O'Connell may not be the Las Vegas Raiders' long-term answer at quarterback. If they are hoping to land that signal-caller in the 2024 draft, though, they can always make a trade up.
According to Hondo S. Carpenter Sr. of Sports Illustrated, former Raiders general manager Dave Ziegler was prepared to go up and get C.J. Stroud in April before then-head coach Josh McDaniels overruled him.
Ziegler and McDaniels were both fired in-season, replaced by Champ Kelly and Antonio Pierce, respectively.
Las Vegas must determine if either Kelly or Pierce should be kept on a full-time basis. That reality is magnified by the fact that franchise owner Mark Davis hired McDaniels over former interim coach Rich Bisaccia, who led the Raiders to the postseason in 2021.
While it's difficult to evaluate a general manager during the season, Davis can and has been assessing Pierce.
"This is not just a throwaway for Antonio Pierce, where he's just going to coach out the rest of the season. He has a shot to keep this job. That's Mark Davis' mindset," Fox Sports' Jay Glazer said in early November.
Pierce has only gone 2-3 as interim coach, but the Raiders—and especially their defense—have played a more focused brand of football with him at the helm.
If he can keep his team focused—and perhaps pick up more wins in the second half of the season than McDaniels did (three) in the first—he may prove to be the right man for the job.
If Pierce isn't the answer, at least the Raiders can figure that out, too. The former Super Bowl champion linebacker is coaching for his job and looking to pick up as many wins as possible along the way. Las Vegas should be content to allow him to stick to that plan.
New York Jets
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There are a few reasons why the New York Jets, which are expected to have Aaron Rodgers back for 2024, should continue trying to win.
The first is that they desperately need to build some momentum heading into next season. Offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett has struggled to field a functional unit without Rodgers; and head coach Robert Saleh, a defensive coach, has watched a unit that ranked fourth in points and yards allowed last season play inconsistently.
There hasn't been much to feel good about in 2023, and that has to change if New York hopes to entice quality free agents and forge a winning environment. And if the struggles continue, it's fair to wonder if Saleh, Hackett and general manager Joe Douglas will become hot-seat candidates in the offseason.
"There's been an assumption, with Rodgers vowing to return in 2024, that ownership will run it all back with the same leaders and try again," Mark Cannizzaro of the New York Post wrote on December 4. "But the way the Jets are playing now, particularly on offense, you have to wonder if there's an expiration date on that get-out-of-jail-free card."
Sunday's 30-6 win over the Houston Texans was a step in the right direction for New York. The Jets need to see more of them before they comfortably commit to the current front office, even if Rodgers is expected to provide a lot of answers in 2024.
The reality is that the Jets are 16-31 under Saleh, and Rodgers isn't going to plug every hole. New York needs to see its coach trying to win over the final month because it still doesn't know if he can provide a winner.
Los Angeles Chargers
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The Los Angeles Chargers' 2023 season is essentially over. The team is 5-8, and quarterback Justin Herbert has a fractured right index finger.
The good news is that they have their franchise quarterback in Herbert. The bad news is that the franchise has largely failed the 25-year-old over his first four pro seasons.
L.A. has struggled to put together a playoff-caliber defense, its running game is underwhelming at best, Herbert's pass protection has been spotty, his receiving corps lacks reliable depth, and head coach Brandon Staley has made his fair share of questionable decisions.
In 62 career games, Herbert has thrown for 17,223 yards with 114 touchdowns, 42 interceptions and a career 95.7 passer rating. He has been on equal footing with fellow 2020 draft picks Tua Tagovailoa and Joe Burrow, but the former is battling for the AFC's No. 1 seed, while the latter has already been to a Super Bowl.
The Chargers have gone 30-32 with Herbert.
Even more alarming is the fact that L.A. has gone backward this season. It ranks 27th in yards per rush, 29th in total defense and 17th in total offense. Herbert has been sacked 29 times, and his receivers have dropped 22 passes.
New offensive coordinator Kellen Moore hasn't boosted the Chargers' production, and at this point, Staley and general manager Tom Telesco should be firmly on the hot seat.
The Chargers owe it to themselves and to Herbert to see if Staley can salvage anything over the final month, even if it's without his franchise quarterback.
It would be great to land a top 2024 prospect like Bowers or Florida State pass-rusher Jared Verse, However, L.A. can find more value in learning for certain whether it's time to move on its current regime and build a new foundation with Herbert at its core.
*Contract and cap information via Spotrac. Advanced statistics from Pro Football Reference.
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