2024 Men's NCAA Tournament Bracket: Latest Projection of the Field of 68
Did you know we are already less than 100 days away from Selection Sunday for the 2024 men's NCAA tournament?
Most teams have already played more than 25 percent of the games that will appear on their final resumes, and hierarchies are beginning to legitimately take shape.
Arizona, Houston, Kansas, Purdue, Connecticut, Baylor and Marquette each cruised through the past seven days, so no changes atop our new projected field. But with Gonzaga, North Carolina, Florida Atlantic, Texas, TCU, Colorado State, BYU, Miami and more each taking at least one loss in the past week, there was quite a bit of change to everything below that top tier.
Last week, we didn't put much stock into the then-newly released NET rankings. However, after spending the first month predominantly seeding based on predictive metrics, we are now incorporating NET, quad-based records and the results-based KPI and SOR into the bracket-building process.
That's good news for the likes of Clemson, Indiana State and Ole Miss, and much less welcome information for Michigan State, TCU, Texas and others.
We'll start with the full bracket before some brief commentary on the current state of the bubble and the top seed line. Following that, a full conference-by-conference rundown, highlighting some of the biggest changes from one week ago.
The Projected Bracket
1 of 11
EAST REGION (Boston)
Indianapolis, IN
No. 1 Purdue vs. No. 16 Lipscomb
No. 8 Texas A&M vs. No. 9 Miami
Pittsburgh, PA
No. 4 Virginia vs. No. 13 Liberty
No. 5 Florida Atlantic vs. No. 12 Providence/South Carolina
Omaha, NE
No. 3 Oklahoma vs. No. 14 Akron
No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 11 Grand Canyon
Brooklyn, NY
No. 2 Connecticut vs. No. 15 Wright State
No. 7 Memphis vs. No. 10 Texas
MIDWEST REGION (Detroit)
Omaha, NE
No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 16 Iona/Merrimack
No. 8 Utah vs. No. 9 Villanova
Spokane, WA
No. 4 Illinois vs. No. 13 UC Irvine
No. 5 Auburn vs. No. 12 Dayton
Charlotte, NC
No. 3 Clemson vs. No. 14 Hofstra
No. 6 Kentucky vs. No. 11 Indiana State
Indianapolis, IN
No. 2 Marquette vs. No. 15 South Dakota State
No. 7 New Mexico vs. No. 10 TCU
SOUTH REGION (Dallas)
Memphis, TN
No. 1 Houston vs. No. 16 Howard/Prairie View A&M
No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 9 Colorado
Brooklyn, NY
No. 4 North Carolina vs. No. 13 UNC-Greensboro
No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 12 Drake/Kansas State
Charlotte, NC
No. 3 Tennessee vs. No. 14 Colgate
No. 6 Duke vs. No. 11 Nevada
Pittsburgh, PA
No. 2 Creighton vs. No. 15 Morehead State
No. 7 Iowa State vs. No. 10 James Madison
WEST REGION (Los Angeles)
Salt Lake City, UT
No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 16 Winthrop
No. 8 Northwestern vs. No. 9 Mississippi State
Salt Lake City, UT
No. 4 BYU vs. No. 13 McNeese State
No. 5 Colorado State vs. No. 12 Princeton
Spokane, WA
No. 3 Gonzaga vs. No. 14 Vermont
No. 6 San Diego State vs. No. 11 Cincinnati
Memphis, TN
No. 2 Baylor vs. No. 15 Weber State
No. 7 Ole Miss vs. No. 10 UCLA
10 Words on Each of the 10 'Bubbliest' Teams
2 of 11
Fifth-to-Last In: Nevada Wolf Pack (7-1)—Lost to Drake, but prior win at Washington got stronger.
Fourth-to-Last In: Kansas State Wildcats (8-2)—Jerome Tang's OT warriors have already won four 45-minute games.
Third-to-Last In: Providence Friars (7-2)—Got stomped at Oklahoma, but Wisconsin win still carries weight.
Second-to-Last In: South Carolina Gamecocks (8-1)—Suffered first loss (Clemson), but metrics still love the Gamecocks.
Last Team In: Drake Bulldogs (9-1)—Our fifth-to-last team in? Drake just beat 'em by 19.
****Cut Line****
First Team Out: Nebraska Cornhuskers (8-2)—Nice recovery from Minnesota loss to hand MSU another L.
Second Team Out: Utah State Aggies (9-1)—Won the Cayman Islands Classic and hasn't looked back yet.
Third Team Out: Washington Huskies (6-3)—Saturday victory over Gonzaga put Huskies back on the radar.
Fourth Team Out: Washington State Cougars (8-1)—Nary a quality win, but Cougs rank 26th in NET.
Fifth Team Out: Butler Bulldogs (8-2)—In year No. 2 under Thad Matta, Butler is emerging.
Ranking the No. 1 Seeds
3 of 11
1. Arizona Wildcats
2. Houston Cougars
3. Kansas Jayhawks
4. Purdue Boilermakers
5. Connecticut Huskies
6. Baylor Bears
7. Marquette Golden Eagles
What's fun about this seven-team tier presently in the conversation for No. 1 seeds is that there is going to be a ton of head-to-head data to consider by the end of the year. (Well, it'll be fun until it is all sorts of annoying when fans want to throw out all of the other data and only use H2H to try to sort out the rankings.)
Houston and Baylor will only meet once in Big 12 play, but each of those teams will have to deal with Kansas twice.
Kansas already defeated Connecticut and lost to Marquette, and those Big East foes will have (at least) two showdowns in the coming months.
We also saw Purdue beat Marquette in the Maui Invitational championship and will get to watch a gigantic Purdue-Arizona matchup this coming Saturday.
Moral of the story: Try not to stress too much over the early order here.
That said, Arizona remains the clear No. 1 after blasting Wisconsin by 25 over the weekend. The Wildcats were already in the top spot with an undefeated record and solid wins away from home over Duke and Michigan State, but that performance really cemented it. Even if they lose to Purdue on Saturday, they're only going to drop one spot to No. 2 overall. (And if Arizona defeats Purdue, let the undefeated whispers begin in earnest.)
Houston at No. 2 likely remains the most controversial choice here, as the Cougars have yet to even face a top-tier foe, let alone defeat one. But their predictive metrics remain second to none, and both NET (No. 2) and SOR (No. 4) have them as a top team. They haven't proven anything yet, but they also haven't given us any good reason to doubt them. (Saturday's game against Texas A&M should be a good test.)
And because of the three top-tier wins in the Maui Invitational, Purdue edges out Connecticut for the final No. 1 seed. (Though, if you put those two on a neutral court tomorrow, I'd pick the Huskies to win.)
ACC Summary
4 of 11
5 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 9. Clemson, 14. Virginia, 15. North Carolina, 22. Duke, 34. Miami
Also Considered: Pittsburgh, NC State, Virginia Tech
Biggest Change: Clemson soars into the top 10
For the most part, factoring in NET rankings as well as the results-based KPI and SOR as opposed to relying primarily upon predictive metrics for the selection and seeding process didn't drastically change things. In the Big 12 summary, we'll touch on a pair of teams that plummeted quite a bit, but the vast majority of teams are within three seed lines of where they landed one week ago.
Then there's Clemson, which survived a pair of undefeated battles this past week, handing both South Carolina and TCU their first losses of the season while improving to 9-0.
That impressive week came on the heels of an even more impressive pair of wins at Alabama and at Pittsburgh.
And now the Tigers rank No. 1 in the nation in both KPI and SOR, boasting four Quad 1 victories.
If you remove all preseason expectations and focus solely on what has been accomplished thus far this season, there's a great case to be made that Clemson should be projected for a No. 1 seed right now.
Not quite willing to go that far just yet, but after a week in which Gonzaga (previously our No. 8 overall seed) and every team that was in our Nos. 10-15 overall seed range (UNC, BYU, FAU, Colorado State, TCU and Texas) all suffered a loss, why shouldn't the Tigers at least be a No. 3 seed?
As great as this start has been, Clemson will forever be the cautionary tale in counting chickens before they hatch. Back in 2006-07, the Tigers started out 17-0 but lost nine of their next 11 en route to receiving a No. 1 seed...in the NIT.
That said, Clemson is in fantastic shape at the moment and could further enhance its resume with a win at Memphis this coming Saturday.
Big 12 Summary
5 of 11
10 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 2. Houston, 3. Kansas, 6. Baylor, 10. Oklahoma, 13. BYU, 25. Iowa State, 38. TCU, 39. Texas, 42. Cincinnati, 46. Kansas State
Also Considered: Texas Tech
Biggest Change: TCU and Texas take a tumble
Both TCU and Texas entered the season with reasonably high hopes. The Longhorns were the No. 12 overall seed in our preseason projection, while the Horned Frogs were in good shape at No. 27.
Thus far, however, all those teams have done is not suffer embarrassing losses.
TCU and Texas are a combined 0-3 against the NET top 15, the Longhorns losing to Connecticut and Marquette and the Horned Frogs losing to Clemson. And they otherwise have not played a game against the NET top 150.
The only non-Q4 win either team has was TCU's road win over NET No. 231 Georgetown, which just barely qualifies for Q3—if the Hoyas slip to No. 241, it drops to Q4—and which shouldn't have even counted, as Emanuel Miller definitely stepped out of bounds before banking in the game-winning buzzer-beating heave.
One week ago, we had TCU and Texas together on the No. 4 seed line. But after each blew key opportunities in the past few days, they now need to actually beat a quality opponent before we're willing to put them higher than a No. 10 seed again.
That chance won't be coming any time soon. Texas' next game against a NET top 75 opponent won't come until playing at Cincinnati on Jan. 9. TCU could get a borderline Q1 win if it draws and defeats Nevada in the semifinals of the Diamond Head Classic in two weeks' time, but going through a Big 12-opening gauntlet of Kansas, Oklahoma, Houston, Cincinnati and Iowa State will tell us a lot about whether the Horned Frogs belong in the tournament field.
Big East Summary
6 of 11
5 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 5. Connecticut, 7. Marquette, 8. Creighton, 36. Villanova, 47. Providence
Also Considered: Butler
Biggest Change: Butler re-entering the chat
Providence slipped a bit after getting pummeled at Oklahoma. St. John's dropped wholly out of the conversation (at least for now) by losing to Boston College. But the most noteworthy change in the Big East has been Butler creeping onto the tournament radar for the first time in a few years.
The Bulldogs don't have any particularly great wins, and they needed two overtimes to avoid what would have been a bad home loss to California this past Saturday. Still, they picked up their fifth consecutive win (also defeating Buffalo last Tuesday) and now rank in the Nos. 40-65 range in each of NET, KPI, SOR, BPI and KenPom.
In the "shoulda coulda woulda" department, Butler gave Florida Atlantic a serious run for its money in the opener of the ESPN Events Invitational, leading by four late in the second half of what was ultimately a five-point win for the Owls. But the Bulldogs bounced right back with wins over both Penn State and Boise State by double digits, which certainly weren't meaningless neutral-court victories.
Assuming they can beat Saginaw Valley State on Friday, they'll enter Big East play sitting at 9-2 and smack dab on the tournament bubble. They'll get six massive opportunities against Connecticut, Creighton and Marquette, and I'd bet a good amount of money they'll win at least one of those three home games.
Big Ten Summary
7 of 11
5 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 4. Purdue, 16. Illinois, 18. Wisconsin, 31. Northwestern, 32. Ohio State
Also Considered: Nebraska, Indiana
Biggest Change: Throwing in the towel on Michigan State
We were bullish on the Spartans for a while.
After the early losses to James Madison and Duke, we dropped them from a preseason No. 1 seed down to just a No. 5 seed.
After loss No. 3 at the hands of Arizona, Michigan State slipped a bit further to a projected No. 8 seed, still getting somewhat of a benefit of the doubt.
But after a 13-point home loss to Wisconsin on Tuesday and a rare loss to Nebraska Sunday night to fall to 4-5?
We are done even considering this team for a spot in the field until further notice.
That isn't to say we're completely ruling out Michigan State making the tournament. Can't bet against Tom Izzo like that after 25 consecutive trips to the dance. And if you could wager on whether a team will make the tournament, MSU's 'Yes' line still would probably be somewhere in the -200 range.
However, this team just plain stinks right now, unable to get much of anything out of AJ Hoggard, Jaden Akins or any of the guys it is using at the 5. It's pretty much Tyson Walker hero ball (which is effective and fun to watch), Malik Hall occasionally showing up in a big way and that's it.
Michigan State has a game against undefeated Baylor in Detroit this Saturday. Getting a quality win there would at least placate some of the concerns about this rough start. But if the Spartans no-show that one to drop to 4-6, are we then officially in, "Hey, remember when Bo Ryan randomly announced his retirement on a Tuesday night in mid-December" territory with Izzo and the Spartans?
Pac-12 Summary
8 of 11
4 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 1. Arizona, 29. Utah, 33. Colorado, 40. UCLA
Also Considered: Washington, Washington State, Oregon, USC
Biggest Change: Huge wins for Colorado and Utah
Prior to this past weekend, both Colorado and Utah had classic "December bubble" resumes, consisting of one relatively close loss away from home against a solid/elite team, one not-great-but-competitive neutral-site loss to a major conference team that might not make the tournament and no exceptional victories. (Though, you could at least make the argument that Utah's true road win over Saint Mary's was pretty darn good, even with the Gaels getting out to a disappointing 3-5 start.)
But the Utes and Buffaloes each re-wrote that narrative with a massive win over the weekend.
Utah's came first on Saturday night in a rivalry game against undefeated (and then No. 1 in the NET) BYU. The final margin was only four points, but once the Utes took a 5-3 lead, they never gave it back. After making at least 10 triples in each of their first eight wins, the Cougars shot 7-of-30 from three-point range and also weren't anywhere near as dominant on the glass as they had been up until that point.
Yes, it was a home game for Utah, but it was an eye-opening victory for a program seeking its first NCAA tournament appearance since 2016.
Then on Sunday afternoon, Colorado destroyed Miami on a neutral floor in Brooklyn.
The Hurricanes also got pulverized in their loss at Kentucky and might be one of those teams with a high ceiling that just really doesn't bother to show up from time to time. But that was a gigantic win for the Buffaloes, and they didn't even have freshman phenom Cody Williams (wrist) available to them. They entered the year looking like perhaps the second-best team in the Pac-12, and they are right back in that conversation after that big win.
Also, let's welcome Washington back to the bubble after its marquee home win over Gonzaga late Saturday night. It currently does not register as a Quad 1 win, as that result knocked the Zags just outside the NET top 30. But don't sweat over that. We all know that was a great win that brought a three-loss team (none of them bad losses) back into the at-large conversation in a hurry.
SEC Summary
9 of 11
8 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 11. Tennessee, 20. Auburn, 21. Kentucky, 23. Alabama, 26. Ole Miss, 30. Texas A&M, 35. Mississippi State, 48. South Carolina
Also Considered: Florida
Biggest Change: Tennessee backs up its lofty metrics
When the initial NET rankings came out last week, there was just one team in the top 35 with at least three losses, and it was the Tennessee Volunteers at No. 17.
The Vols had also spent the entire season ranked 11th or better on KenPom, registering as a quality team with a great 10-point road win over Wisconsin and a trio of competitive losses away from home against Purdue, Kansas and North Carolina.
No shame in any of those losses—unless you want to talk about just how awful the defense was in the first half at UNC—so they remained comfortably ranked in the AP Top 25 in spite of their 4-3 record. But we had temporarily dropped the Volunteers down to a No. 6 seed after allowing those 100 points to the Tar Heels.
This past week, however, Tennessee got back on track in a big way, and storms back up to a projected No. 3 seed for it.
The Vols smoked a decent George Mason team by a three-touchdown margin before scoring a quality 86-79 victory over Illinois.
There was a 12-minute stretch in that latter game in which they scored just six points. It was one of those debilitating droughts that plagued them far too often last season. But once the Vols pried the lid back off the rim, they couldn't be stopped, racking up 31 points in under 10 minutes.
They clearly have the potential to be one of the best teams this season and should be headed for a strong seed. But for eventual bracket-filling-out purposes, we'll be looking to see if the Volunteers can lock back in on defense (allowing 10.3 more PPG than last season) and whether the offense can show up with a fair degree of regularity.
Frequent Multi-Bid Mid-Majors Summary
10 of 11
8 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 12. Gonzaga, 17. Florida Atlantic, 19. Colorado State, 24. San Diego State, 27. New Mexico, 28. Memphis, 43. Nevada, 50. Dayton
Also Considered: Utah State, Saint Joseph's
Biggest Change: A rough week for the top tier
Memphis picked up a big-time win over Texas A&M Sunday afternoon, and New Mexico improved to 9-1 and appears to have found something special in sophomore point guard Donovan Dent. With those two teams moving up the seed list, there are now six teams from outside the power six projected for a No. 7 seed or better.
However, each member of what was previously the four-team upper echelon from the A-10, AAC, MWC and WCC took an L this past week: Gonzaga at Washington, San Diego State at Grand Canyon, Florida Atlantic vs. Illinois (in NYC) and Colorado State vs. Saint Mary's.
None of the four losses was particularly damning, so none of the four slipped more than six spots on the overall seed list. Still, they were tough losses for teams that frankly won't get all that many more opportunities to enhance their resumes in a hurry.
There are still a few massive nonconference showdowns to come, though.
Gonzaga faces Connecticut in Seattle this Friday. Florida Atlantic gets Arizona in Las Vegas on the 23rd. And in addition to the big head-to-head action that will transpire in Mountain West play, San Diego State wraps up nonconference play with a road game against Gonzaga on the 29th.
Considering lack of Quad 1 wins is what limited a 31-3 FAU squad to just a No. 9 seed last March, those opportunities loom large in giving us a sense of what the seed ceiling might be for these mid-major programs.
One-Bid Leagues Summary
11 of 11
23 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 37. James Madison, 41. Indiana State, 44. Grand Canyon, 45. Princeton, 49. Drake, 51. Liberty, 52. McNeese State, 53. UC Irvine, 54. UNC Greensboro, 55. Hofstra, 56. Akron, 57. Colgate, 58. Vermont, 59. South Dakota State, 60. Weber State, 61. Morehead State, 62. Wright State, 63. Lipscomb, 64. Winthrop, 65. Prairie View A&M, 66. Howard, 67. Iona, 68. Merrimack
Biggest Change: Two-bid Valley
Historically speaking, the Missouri Valley is much more of a "frequent multi-bid mid-major" than a typical one-bid league. But over the past six NCAA tournaments, the Valley has produced just one at-large team, when Drake snuck into the 2021 field as the last team in—meaning it would not have made it if the Ivy League hadn't canceled its entire season and opened up one extra at-large spot.
Thus, we decided before the season to leave the MVC in this bucket of 22 conferences.
Might need to revisit that decision based on how well both Drake and Indiana State have played out of the gates.
The Sycamores are all the way up to No. 12 in the NET after two more blowout victories this past week. They are now 9-1 with the lone loss coming on the road against Alabama and with four of those wins coming against Quad 2 competition. They also still have a key road game against Michigan State coming up on Dec. 30. Even though the Spartans have struggled mightily, that's a huge opportunity for ISU to plant its flag as an at-large candidate.
The Bulldogs are also 9-1, though nowhere near as well regarded in the NET (No. 49). They do have the best win, though, besting Nevada by a 19-point margin on a neutral court Saturday night. Drake also had an impressive 20-point victory over Akron in the Cayman Islands Classic. Unfortunately, that tournament was also responsible for Drake's lone loss, and an ugly one by 24 points to Stephen F. Austin. But it's a respectable tournament resume if the Bulldogs can avoid taking on too many bad losses the rest of the way.
As you are undoubtedly now wondering, Jan. 10 at Drake and Feb. 3 at Indiana State are the two regular-season meetings between these teams.
.jpg?w=600 "🚨 Giants Picking 5th and 10th")
