Massive Juan Soto Trade, Shohei's Secrecy and More 2023 MLB Winter Meetings Takeaways
The winter meetings that took place Sunday-Wednesday in Nashville, Tennessee were supposed to mark the unofficial start of Major League Baseball's offseason, ushering in a whirlwind of signings and otherwise blockbuster news.
Yet, here we sit, waiting for Shohei Ohtani and basically the entire market of key free agents to choose their new homes for the still-months-away-but-rapidly-approaching 2024 season.
There were a handful of noteworthy moves made in the past four days, though, as well as some intriguing developments in the rumor mill for the likes of Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Eduardo Rodriguez.
Our biggest takeaways from the winter meetings are presented in no particular order, but we'll get started with the gigantic trade that finally, officially happened late Wednesday night.
Yankees Get Their Man, But Can They Extend Him?
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The big thing missing from the 2022 winter meetings was a blockbuster trade. There were plenty of massive free-agency signings, but the most noteworthy swap was, what, Atlanta sending a couple of minor leaguers to Detroit for Joe Jiménez?
But with Shohei Ohtani creating something of a stalemate in this year's free-agent market, trading was the name of the game this week in Nashville.
And the biggest trade by a country mile resulted in Juan Soto going to the New York Yankees.
The full reported package was Juan Soto and Trent Grisham for Michael King, Drew Thorpe, Jhony Brito, Randy Vásquez and Kyle Higashioka—otherwise read as one superstar hitter and one excellent centerfield glove for four pitchers and a catcher.
Toronto jumped into the bidding war for Soto earlier in the week, but it's no surprise that he landed in the Bronx. We had the Yankees at No. 1 on our list of potential landing spots in a Soto deal one month ago, and it has felt almost inevitable since then. The Blue Jays emerging as a candidate may have just increased New York's urgency to get the deal done.
Now for the big question: Can the Yankees do what the Padres couldn't and sign Soto to a long-term extension before he becomes one of the biggest talking points of next year's winter meetings, too?
They already have Aaron Judge, Gerrit Cole, Giancarlo Stanton and Carlos Rodón each signed for at least $25 million per year through at least 2027, but what's the point in giving up all that young pitching just to get one year of Soto?
Don't be surprised if this plays out similarly to last December when Atlanta traded for Sean Murphy and then locked him up on a long-term deal two weeks later. Although as a Scott Boras client, that is no sure thing.
The Dam-Blocking Specter of Shohei Ohtani
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We all knew long before the winter meetings began that Shohei Ohtani was going to be the first domino that set everything else in motion.
Simply put, no one with aspirations of signing the two-time AL MVP wanted to spend money elsewhere before finding out if they were going to hit that jackpot.
But what we didn't know before the winter meetings—in addition to where Ohtani would sign and for how many hundreds of millions of dollars—was when it would happen.
In recent offseasons with winter meetings not impacted by COVID-19 or a lockout, this is when the massive signings have gone down.
Aaron Judge and the quartet of nine-figure shortstops reached their agreements during this four-day window last December. (Though, the Carlos Correa saga eventually dragged out into January.)
Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg and Anthony Rendon signed their megadeals during the 2019 winter meetings.
And even though Ohtani basically hasn't said a word to anyone in the U.S. media in months, the hope/assumption was that he would sign his contract this week in Nashville.
But the thing about unprecedented superstars is they don't always do what you want or expect. And as the winter meetings dragged on with not a whole lot happening, it was fascinating/amusing to watch a bunch of the biggest names in MLB media get kind of frustrated with Ohtani for holding up everything.
In a thinly veiled "please sign already, you're killing us here" plea, ESPN's Buster Olney wrote on Tuesday about Ohtani's "missed opportunity" to do something great for baseball in being so secretive about this whole process. The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal and MLB Network's Jon Morosi echoed similar sentiments.
And while that frustration is entirely understandable, the 29-year-old's refusal to make this decision on anything other than his own timeline kind of makes it all even more entertaining, doesn't it?
So much of MLB's calendar is driven by deadlines. The in-season trade deadline is the big one, but there are also deadlines for extending qualifying offers, deciding on contract options, non-tendering players, submitting arbitration figures, etc.
The latest report from Morosi is that Ohtani is expected to sign by the end of the weekend, but what's keeping that "deadline" from coming and going?
If he really wanted to, the Japanese star could hold this whole offseason hostage for months, waiting until Valentine's Day or longer to decide which team he loves the most.
Here's hoping that isn't what happens, though, because I'm already tired of refreshing Twitter every 10 minutes. Can't keep that up for another 10 weeks.
Eduardo Rodríguez Finds the Perfect Match
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The real disappointment of the winter meetings isn't that none of the top free agents signed, it's that we didn't even hear a damn rumor about most of the top free agents.
There was talk of Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, of course, but was there a single report about Cody Bellinger?
Blake Snell?
Jordan Montgomery?
Josh Hader?
Matt Chapman?
At least we finally got a Jeimer Candelario contract late Wednesday night, but still nothing in the $50+ million department since Sonny Gray and Aaron Nola signed their deals a while ago. It was just a whole lot of nothing on the free-agent front aside from Craig Kimbrel, Robert Stephenson and way more news about Erick Fedde than even Erick Fedde could have dreamed possible.
The one exception to that rule was Eduardo Rodríguez, who was "down to two teams and is expected to have a decision by tomorrow," according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post on Wednesday afternoon.
Rodriguez didn't wait until tomorrow, though. Per ESPN's Jeff Passan, he signed with the Arizona Diamondbacks late Wednesday night on a "four-year contract for around $20 million a year, pending physical."
Credit to Arizona for recognizing the perfect vacuum in which it could operate. While everyone is focused on Ohtani and hesitant to sign the projected-nine-figure-contract players noted above until the Ohtani market is settled, the Diamondbacks—who were never going to sign Ohtani—made Rodriguez their prettiest princess at the ball, signing him before the likes of the Dodgers and Yankees even bothered to enter the chat.
The thought of Rodriguez as an ace in Baltimore or Cincinnati was a bit concerning. But using him as a No. 3 starter behind Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly? With Brandon Pfaadt in the mix after his October breakout?
Arizona is gearing up for a repeat trip to the World Series.
While Everyone Else Waits on Ohtani, Steve Cohen Has a Different Top Priority
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Rather than wait to negotiate with Yoshinobu Yamamoto when he makes his reported trip to the United States in a few days, New York Mets owner Steve Cohen flew to Japan last week to meet with him, per The Athletic's Will Sammon.
SNY's Andy Martino later reported that Cohen and Yamamoto "ate at a lovely French-Japanese restaurant in Japan last week, said to have had a great meeting. Mets owner also met Yamamoto's family."
Will it actually make a difference that results in the Mets landing the 25-year-old ace? We'll likely need to wait at least another week to find out.
But what a savvy move by Cohen, going 7,000 miles out of his way to prove to Yamamoto that he is the Mets' No. 1 priority while every other deep-pocketed franchise fights to win the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes.
The Athletic's Jim Bowden reported earlier in the week that the bidding war for Yamamoto could end up "close to $300 million." Whether that's 10 years at $30 million a pop or an eight-year deal for $37.5 million per year, it's shaping up to be a historic contract for a guy who has yet to pitch in the majors.
And if anyone is willing to pay a historic amount of money for a free agent, you have to assume Cohen is the guy to make it happen. Especially if his biggest competition is across town in the Yankees.
Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos Does It Again
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It sure seems like every time Atlanta is involved in a trade, general manager Alex Anthopoulos comes out on the winning end of the deal.
At this point, it's surprising that teams are even willing to negotiate with the Braves, for fear of becoming the latest club getting fleeced in a swap. And yet, the Seattle Mariners struck a deal with Atlanta late Sunday night, sending Jarred Kelenic, Marco Gonzales and Evan White 3,000 miles southeast in exchange for pitchers Jackson Kowar and Cole Phillips.
For the Mariners, this was clearly a salary dump of a trade.
Signing White to a six-year, $24 million, backloaded deal in 2019 aged like a fine milk for Seattle. He last played in the majors in May 2021, but he was owed $7 million for 2024 and $8 million for 2025, plus a $2 million buyout of his $10 million club option for 2026. Add that to the $12 million due to Gonzales in 2024, and the M's were able to clear $19 million from their 2024 payroll, with which they will presumably try to do something significant.
To get that salary relief, though, they had to give up Kelenic, who was once a unanimous top-10 prospect in baseball and broke out in a big way early last season...before breaking his foot on a water cooler.
Atlanta will now have four, possibly five, years of the 24-year-old's services before he reaches free agency, and goodness knows they'll probably sign him to one of their patented "how do they keep getting away with this?" long-term, team-friendly deals.
Then, naturally, two days later, Atlanta flipped Gonzales to Pittsburgh, passing some of the buck from Seattle's salary dump for cash considerations and a player to be named later. We'll see if they can also pawn White's salary off on someone else to seal the deal.
In addition to salary relief, Seattle does get some intriguing arms. Kowar was the 2018 first-round pick that Atlanta received from Kansas City in the Kyle Wright trade a few weeks ago, and Phillips was a second-round selection in 2022.
But, for now, and yet again, it looks like Atlanta won the trade by a landslide.
Baltimore Gets Its Félix Bautista Replacement
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Félix "The Mountain" Bautista cemented himself as one of the best closers in baseball, striking out opponents at an absurd rate en route to a few votes for AL Cy Young. He should be Baltimore's ninth-inning star from 2025-27 before making a ton of money in free agency.
However, the 28-year-old is going to miss all of 2024 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in early October, leaving the O's searching for a stopgap solution, lest they let the bullpen devolve from one of their biggest strengths into a massive shortcoming.
They perhaps could have spent an irresponsible amount of money on Josh Hader, but they opted for veteran Craig Kimbrel instead, signing him to a one-year, $12 million deal with a $13 million club option for a second season.
The 2023 All-Star, 35, has been a mess in the postseason in recent years, posting a 6.00 ERA over his last 21 appearances. He certainly won't be getting inducted into Philadelphia's ring of honor for his work in the 2023 NLCS. But he is still pretty darn effective during the regular season and should be a solid option for the O's.
The figure of $13 million ($12 million plus the $1 million buyout of next year's option) is the most Baltimore has spent on a free agent since signing both Alex Cobb and Andrew Cashner during the 2017-18 offseason. But this might be just the beginning for a franchise that is clearly in the market for a starting pitcher, too.
Sworn Enemies Pull off a Rare Trade
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The absolute last thing the Boston Red Sox ever want to do is make the New York Yankees stronger, and vice versa. As a result, trades between the AL East rivals have been few and far between over the years.
In a bit of a stunner, though, the biggest news from Day 3 of the winter meetings was Boston sending Alex Verdugo to the Bronx Bombers in exchange for a trio of pitching prospects: Richard Fitts, Greg Weissert and Nicholas Judice.
It marks only the eighth trade between the Red Sox and the Yankees in the past half-century, per Baseball Reference.
However, were this a deal between any other two franchises or had the first few days of the winter meetings been anywhere near as captivating as they were last year, this one barely moves the needle.
Verdugo, 27, has one year remaining before entering free agency and hasn't been able to hit left-handed pitching over the past three years. The Yankees may well platoon him with Giancarlo Stanton, who had a .640 OPS against righties as opposed to .942 against lefties in 2023. Newly acquired Trent Grisham was also much worse against righties (.623 OPS) than he was against lefties (.792) last season, so that's probably the spot in the lineup they'll platoon, with Aaron Judge playing center on days that Grisham is out.
And while the Red Sox definitely need pitching, it's unlikely any of the three acquired in the swap do anything to help them in 2024. Fitts is a decent prospect, but he's probably still two years away. Weissert did pitch in the majors in each of the last two seasons but struggled. And Judice was an eighth-round pick a few months ago, nowhere close to making it to the big leagues. Frankly, they just wanted to get something in return for being done with Verdugo.
Are the Blue Jays Going To Be This Year's Giants?
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Last winter, the San Francisco Giants were allegedly in on basically every big-name free agent.
They almost got Aaron Judge. They did get Carlos Correa before balking at his medicals and letting him go. They made a ton of big swings, but all they ended up getting was a bunch of eight-figure salaries who felt overpriced from the moment they signed: Mitch Haniger, Michael Conforto, Taylor Rogers, Ross Stripling and Sean Manaea. None of whom produced so much as 1.0 bWAR as the Giants went from a .500 team to a four-games-below-.500 team.
And after all we've been hearing about the Blue Jays in recent days—in Juan Soto trade rumors, in Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto free-agency rumors, in "willingness to trade Bo Bichette for heaven only knows what reason" rumors—is anyone else getting the feeling that Toronto is this year's boy who cried wolf?
Yes, aside from the Yankees, no one accomplished a whole lot this week and there's still plenty of time and opportunity for Toronto to win the offseason.
If the Blue Jays ultimately land either Ohtani or Yamamoto, I'll have some crow to eat here.
But if Ohtani goes to the Dodgers, Yamamoto goes to the Mets and the Blue Jays end up not actually signing any of this year's nine-figure free agents—while also losing one of them in the form of Matt Chapman, as the Giants did last year with Carlos Rodón—it's going to be a deflating offseason for the fans in Toronto who allowed themselves to get excited about the prospect of signing a generational superstar.
Reds Add to Their Infield Logjam
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Late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning, free agent corner infielder Jeimer Candelario agreed in principle to a three-year, $45 million deal with the Cincinnati Reds.
It's a curious move for a team that desperately needs pitching and that has so many infielders that it was already assumed they'd be looking to trade one away this offseason.
At this point, Cincinnati has a projected alignment of Candelario at first, Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz and Noelvi Marte at second, third and short in one order or another, corner infielder Christian Encarnacion-Strand at DH, Spencer Steer transitioning back to left field after primarily playing first last year and second baseman Jonathan India presumably now very much on the trade block.
Having too many capable bats is certainly better than the alternative, but it is surprising that a team which opened last season with an $83 million payroll chose this spot to allocate $15 million per year. They could've instead spent that money on a Michael Wacha, Michael Lorenzen, Mike Clevinger or any number of other pitchers not named Michael/Mike.
On the Candelario side of things, though, what a difference a year makes. All he could muster last winter in free agency was a one-year, $5 million contract from a Nationals team that was projected to finish in dead last in the National League. With this contract, he's going to darn near quadruple his career earnings. And if he hits anything like he did last year for the Nats, perhaps he will be the catalyst that pushes Cincinnati back to the top of the NL Central.
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