Ranking Juan Soto's Top 10 Landing Spots Amid MLB Trade Rumors
When the San Diego Padres put together their big platter of quality prospects in the trade for Juan Soto two summers ago, they hoped he would be theirs for many All-Star seasons.
But while they inked Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove to nine-figure contracts, that long-term extension with Soto never materialized. And now they're reportedly trying to cut costs in advance of what is his final season before hitting free agency, leading to speculation that they might be willing to trade him away.
If the Padres do put Soto on the trade block, which teams are best positioned to make them an offer they can't refuse? Based on a combination of team needs, the ability to spend money and talent available down on the farm, we've ranked the 10 best landing spots for Soto if a trade were to happen right now.
The ranking will inevitably change if he isn't traded until after the bonanza of free-agent signings. It would also be different if you're talking about who is most likely to trade for Soto next summer, or who is most likely to sign him in free agency next winter.
But if Soto were to get traded in the next 48 hours, the following teams would make the most sense.
What Are the Latest Rumors? And What Would the Padres Want for Soto?
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In late September, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reported that the Padres are hoping to reduce their payroll from roughly $253 million in 2023 to "around $200 million."
By not re-signing any of their free agents—most notably Blake Snell and Josh Hader—they could easily pull that off. They have something like $80 million coming off the books and wouldn't need to trade away Soto to get below a $200 million payroll.
But if they've accepted that a long-term contract with Soto isn't going to happen, why not save the roughly $30 million that his salary will be in his final year of arbitration while also restocking the farm system that they gutted to trade for him in the first place?
In late October, Chris Kirschner of The Athletic reported that the Padres were more likely to trade Soto at next summer's trade deadline as opposed to this offseason. Soto's agent Scott Boras also suggested on Wednesday that San Diego is planning on having Soto in the lineup next season.
Let's see if that still rings true after Shohei Ohtani picks his next home.
Several franchises have positioned themselves to give Ohtani upwards of a half-billion dollars, but only one team will actually sign him. For the others, trading for and immediately extending Soto might be Plan B.
As far as trade packages go, the Padres are not throwing in the towel on 2024; they're just trying to build a World Series contender that they can actually afford. If they're trading Soto this offseason, they're doing so for controllable assets who can help them now—guys who were rookies this past season or prospects who are viable candidates to crack an Opening Day roster.
Between needing to find a team willing and able to offer that, Soto's projected 2024 salary and the uncertainty of whether he'll leave in free agency a year from now, it's easy to see why most insiders aren't imminently anticipating a trade.
There are several teams that could make it happen, though.
Nos. 10-6: Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Orioles, Blue Jays and Cubs
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10. Los Angeles Dodgers
9. Arizona Diamondbacks
If the Padres are willing to trade Soto within the NL West, the San Francisco Giants make the most sense, and they rank in our top five as a result. But the Dodgers certainly have the money (and a vacancy in left field) to make a run at Soto. The Diamondbacks, who also have a vacancy in left with Lourdes Gurriel Jr. heading into free agency, might view Soto as the missing piece that can bring them a World Series ring in 2024.
8. Baltimore Orioles
One of these days, the Orioles are going to spend some money, right? Even after all of the solid rookies they've churned out over the past two years, the O's still have a farm system more than deep enough to put together a great package without gutting themselves. While we don't have Baltimore in the top five for a Soto trade in the offseason, the O's may well be the top candidate to land him if he's still on the market next summer as a two-month rental.
7. Toronto Blue Jays
Between Matt Chapman, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Kevin Kiermaier and Brandon Belt, the Blue Jays have more than $50 million freeing up from departing free agents. And because they have inexplicably refused to sign either Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Bo Bichette to long-term extensions, they have the future capital to trade for Soto and immediately make him the face of their franchise for the next decade. The problem is that they have one of the worst farm systems at the moment, so putting together a top-five offer could be a challenge, even if this would be a good fit.
6. Chicago Cubs
After spending big for a new manager and after losing both Cody Bellinger and Marcus Stroman to free agency, the Cubs figure to be pretty aggressive this offseason. But do they really need an outfielder when they're already committed to a combined $120 million between Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ through the next three seasons? And when Pete Crow-Armstrong might be the next big thing in baseball?
If Soto wants to follow in Bryce Harper's footsteps and make a switch to first base, now we're talking. Even if that's on the table, though, it's arguably more likely that the Cubs spend big on a Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell or Aaron Nola than trade for Soto.
5. San Francisco Giants
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Current OF/DH Quartet: Michael Conforto, Mike Yastrzemski, Mitch Haniger, LaMonte Wade Jr./J.D. Davis
Current Payroll / 2023 Payroll: $122M / $187M
Michael Conforto somewhat surprisingly opting in for one more year in San Francisco reduced the Giants' desperation to bring in another outfielder this offseason. At this point, they have their primary trio for 2024 set, and they have to believe Luis Matos will be ready for an everyday job in the majors by the time Conforto hits free agency next offseason.
However, after whiffing on Aaron Judge and passing on Carlos Correa last winter, the Giants were woefully lacking in high-profile hitters in 2023. Unless they win the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes, there isn't much of that to be found in free agency this year.
Trading for Soto might be their best chance at adding some much-needed star power. Plus, given the absurd year he just had against the Giants (.383/.509/.915 with 8 HR in 13 games), trading for him and no longer needing to worry about facing him is basically self-preservation.
But coming up with a good trade package is the tricky part.
The Giants aren't going to want to trade Kyle Harrison or Marco Luciano from what figures to be their Opening Day roster, but the Padres likely won't want to trade Soto for the teenagers in rookie/Single-A ball who make up a good chunk of the top of San Francisco's farm system. This might need to be a "four quarters for a dollar" type of swap to work for the Giants, which might not be enough to entice the Padres.
Trade Package: LHP Carsen Whisenhunt, SS Aeverson Arteaga, OF Wade Meckler and RHP Landen Roupp for Juan Soto
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4. New York Mets
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Current OF/DH Quartet: Brandon Nimmo, Starling Marte...Jeff McNeil? D.J. Stewart? Dan Vogelbach?
Current Payroll / 2023 Payroll: $203M / $344M
The general consensus since the August 1 trade deadline has been that the Mets are going to take it easy this offseason. If they're involved in a blockbuster trade, it's more likely that they'll be parting with Pete Alonso before his final season of arbitration eligibility rather than being on the receiving end of the biggest star in the deal.
But if Mets owner Steve Cohen decides he doesn't want to be a spectator in the bidding wars for Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and more, the Mets could use a corner outfielder.
They're all set with Nimmo in center field. However, Marte was a disaster in right in 2023. And after they traded away both Tommy Pham and Mark Canha, none of Stewart, Rafael Ortega or Tim Locastro exactly made a great case for a starting gig.
They could go with McNeil in either left or right if they're ready for Ronny Mauricio to take over at second, but Soto could take whichever spot McNeil doesn't take. Or Soto could be the primary DH if the Mets are committed to still playing Marte on a daily basis.
After all of the trades they made a few months ago, the Mets have a nice stockpile of MLB-ready prospects whom they could offer the Padres. They could still be left with a solid farm system afterward, too.
Would they immediately extend Soto, or would they embrace going through next season with both Soto and Alonso on expiring deals? Your guess is as good as mine. But put Soto in that lineup and the Mets immediately become a World Series contender again.
Trade Package: OF Alex Ramírez, RHP José Butto and RHP Justin Jarvis for Juan Soto
3. Boston Red Sox
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Current OF/DH Quartet: Masataka Yoshida, Alex Verdugo, Jarren Duran...Wilyer Abreu/Ceddanne Rafaela?
Current Payroll / 2023 Payroll: $143M / $183M
What Boston should be worried about this offseason is improving the pitching staff that gave up at least 78 more runs than every other AL East team in 2023. But if the winter meetings roll around and the Padreds are asking every team for its best offer on Juan Soto, the Red Sox aren't likely to say "Thanks, but no thanks."
Craig Breslow would likely love to make a Soto-sized splash to jump start his run as Boston's new chief baseball officer. And aside from Yoshida—who might be slated for DH duties with Justin Turner out of the picture—the Red Sox don't have a sure-fire long-term outfielder on their roster.
Verdugo hits free agency next offseason. They certainly hope Duran can build upon his breakout 2023 campaign and become a staple in center and that Rafaela will hit the ground running as early as 2024 Opening Day. But if you had to bet on one player starting in Boston's outfield on a regular basis in 2026, who are you picking?
If they trade for and extend Soto, they'd at least have one answer to that question.
Even without getting into 2025 and beyond, a 2024 heart of the order of Soto, Rafael Devers, Trevor Story, Tristan Casas, Yoshida and Verdugo sure would be a problem.
Trade Package: 2B Nick Yorke and LHP Shane Drohan for Juan Soto
2. Seattle Mariners
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Current OF/DH Quartet: Julio Rodríguez, Jarred Kelenic...Dominic Canzone? Jonatan Clase? Mike Ford?
Current Payroll / 2023 Payroll: $124M / $134M
With Teoscar Hernández hitting free agency, there's no question that Seattle could use Juan Soto in right field. Whether the Mariners could afford Soto is the bigger question.
While it's great for roster-continuity purposes that they aren't poised to really lose anyone other than Hernández ($14 million in 2023) to free agency, it does mean there isn't much "new" money in the budget. Bringing in Soto would mean embracing a payroll that is at least 15 percent greater than last season, and that's if they do absolutely nothing else.
But how amazing would it be to lock up both Soto and Julio Rodríguez on long-term contracts? When you also have an entire starting rotation—Luis Castillo, Robbie Ray, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller—under team control through at least 2026?
The Mariners would run a risk if they trade for Soto and fail to get a long-term deal in place. San Diego can certainly attest to that. But the chance to make it happen should be too enticing to pass up. It could make them not just one of the contenders, but the singular favorite to win the American League for the foreseeable future.
They likely would rather not part with recent first-round picks Cole Young, Harry Ford or Colt Emerson, but they should be willing to give up just about anyone else in their farm system to make it happen. The three players selected below could all contribute for the Padres in 2024.
Trade Package: RHP Emerson Hancock, OF Jonatan Clase, 1B/3B Tyler Locklear for Juan Soto
1. New York Yankees
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Current OF/DH Quartet: Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton...Oswaldo Cabrera? Jasson Dominguez?
Current Payroll / 2023 Payroll: $203M / $279M
Because they need to add an outfielder and because they always have money to spend, the Yankees have been regarded as one of the top candidates—if not the clear favorite—to sign free-agent center fielder Cody Bellinger.
But wouldn't trading for Soto be even better for the Bronx Bombers?
Rather than committing to yet another nine-figure contract with Bellinger when they're already tied to megadeals with Stanton, Judge, Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón through at least 2029, they could get one year of Soto at a projected price point of around $30 million.
Next offseason, they could revisit their long-term outfield plans after they have a much better idea of how Dominguez recovers from Tommy John surgery, whether it's even plausible that Cabrera could be their left fielder of the future, and how close their new top prospect, Spencer Jones, is to being worthy of full-time big-league work.
That isn't to say they'd necessarily be comfortable with the idea of trading for Soto only to have him walk less than a year later. But it might be the end of the world for the Yankees if that happened.
Whether that makes them more likely to put forth the best trade package for Soto is anyone's guess.
Trade Package: LHP Nestor Cortes, RHP Drew Thorpe and SS Trey Sweeney for Juan Soto
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