Winners and Losers from Patrick Kane Signing with Detroit Red Wings

Patrick Kane has reportedly made his free-agent decision, signing a one-year contract with the Detroit Red Wings on Tuesday morning, according to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet and Chris Johnston of The Athletic.

The future Hall of Fame forward adds another big name to the Red Wings lineup, which will only increase expectations for the team. Detroit is off to one of its best starts in years at 11-6-3 and is looking to snap a seven-year playoff drought and bring some validation to the Steve Yzerman plan (aka: The Yzer-plan).

To this point, the results have not been encouraging for the general manager, and if they do not get closer to the playoffs this season—especially after all of their additions in recent years—it will be time to start seriously questioning what is happening there.

The Kane signing might help make or break a lot of that.

While he is a big name and one of the best offensive players of his era, there is a significant amount of risk with this move.

For one, Kane is 35 years old and has started to develop some significant flaws in his game, mostly due to his five-on-five play and defensive ability. There were times that he seemed like more of a liability than an impact player for the New York Rangers after they acquired him last year, and it's unclear how much he has left in the tank.

The other big variable here is that Kane is coming off an offseason hip-resurfacing procedure that has proved to be quite the obstacle for other players to come back from. We just saw the struggles Washington's Nicklas Backstrom went through and how quickly his career seems to have ended.

Given those two things, it is going to be important for the Red Wings to make sure they realize what version of Kane they are getting, avoid overusing him and put him into positions where they can highlight what he can still do and hide what he can not do.

Their ability to do so, as well as Kane's ability to come back from his hip procedure, will dictate how this signing works out.

For now, let's take a look at some early winners and losers from this move.

Winner: Red Wings' Salary-Cap Situation

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NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE - JUNE 29: Steve Yzerman of the Detroit Red WIngs attends the 2023 NHL Draft at the Bridgestone Arena on June 29, 2023 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)

There are some obvious concerns with Kane, and there is zero guarantee this works out as anybody hopes.

But there is also a very low risk here for the Red Wings from a contract perspective.

Kane's deal is reportedly only worth a prorated $2.75 million for one season, per Daily Faceoff's Frank Seravalli. That is a decent price for a role of the dice.

It still leaves the Red Wings with a couple of million in salary-cap space for the season, and there is absolutely zero long-term commitment beyond 2023-24 when the Red Wings will have to deal with some significant restricted free-agent situations (Moritz Seider, Lucas Raymond) and fill out the remainder of their roster.

If Kane can still play, it is a low-cost, positive addition.

If he can not? It is no big deal to stash him in the press box and move on.

Loser: The Red Wings' 5-on-5 defense

Steve Babineau/NHLI via Getty Images

BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS - NOVEMBER 24: The Boston Bruins celebrate the third-period goal against the Detroit Red Wings on November 24, 2023 at the TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Steve Babineau/NHLI via Getty Images)

Even when Kane was at his peak, he was never the best player in the NHL away from the puck. Or even a very good player away from the puck.

But he scored so much and generated so much offense that it did not really matter.

But as he has gotten older—and this was especially the case over the previous two years—his defensive play deteriorated to the point where he was almost a non-factor during five-on-five play last season with both Chicago and even the New York Rangers following the trade deadline.

Now he's another year older and is coming back from a major hip-resurfacing procedure that has not been kind to players in the past.

It should be a concern for the Red Wings, especially since their five-on-five defensive play is nothing special.

They are 24th in the NHL in expected goals share during five-on-five play and 19th in expected goals against per 60 minutes.

If they give Kane too big of a role and do not shelter his defensive flaws, that could be a big problem.

Winner: Alex DeBrincat (Potentially)

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BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS - NOVEMBER 24: Alex DeBrincat #93 of the Detroit Red Wings skates with the puck against the Boston Bruins on November 24, 2023 at the TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Steve Babineau/NHLI via Getty Images)

The obvious storyline with Kane joining the Red Wings is the possible reunion with his former Chicago linemate, Alex DeBrincat.

The duo spent significant time together with the Blackhawks and were one of the best scoring duos in the league, especially during five-on-five play. Between the 2017-18 and 2021-22 seasons they spent more than 2,050 minutes of even-strength hockey alongside each other, averaging 3.3 goals per 60 minutes and outscoring teams by a 114-107 margin.

While that goal differential might not seem overly impressive, you need to keep in mind they were a plus-seven on a Chicago team that was outscored by 133 goals (411-278) when neither of them was on the ice during five-on-five play.

Can they recapture that magic?

DeBrincat is still very much capable of being a top-line scorer (and he still is), but Kane is most definitely not the same player that he was four or five years ago.

Loser: Other Teams Needing Scoring Depth

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SUNRISE, FL - NOVEMBER 22: Head coach Paul Maurice of the Florida Pantherslooks on during third period action against the Boston Bruins at the Amerant Bank Arena on November 22, 2023 in Sunrise, Florida. (Photo by Joel Auerbach/Getty Images)

There is some level of debate as to how much teams like the Florida Panthers and Buffalo Sabres really needed a player like Kane at this stage of his career, but they both probably could have used a boost to their power-play units (Florida is 22nd and Buffalo is 25th) to continue their pushes for the playoffs.

The Sabres are especially hurting for offense (all over their lineup, not just on the power play) and are facing significant pressure to end the franchise's 12-year postseason drought after coming so close a year ago and having such high expectations coming into this season.

Kane would not have been a cure-all or addressed all of their biggest needs, but it would have been another potential scoring threat to the lineup and particularly on the power play—especially on a one-year, $2.75 million contract.

Winner: Red Wings' Power Play

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BOSTON, MA - NOVEMBER 24: Detroit celebrates an opening goal from Detroit Red Wings left wing J.T. Compher (37) on the power play during a game between the Boston Bruins and the Detroit Red Wings on November 24, 2023, at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

While Kane's defense might be an issue at five-on-five, he should serve as a pretty significant boost to the power play.

He still has the vision. He can still pass. He can still make plays and set people up.

The Red Wings' power play has already been pretty good this season, entering Tuesday ninth in the league with a 22.4 percent success rate. A lot of that success, though, has come from an extraordinarily high shooting percentage (15.4 percent on the power play), and they could still stand to generate a few more chances and shots overall.

Whether Kane is added to the top unit or adds some punch to a second unit, the power play is where he is going to have to make his biggest impact.

For all of his flaws elsewhere at this stage in his career, he should still be able to do that.

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Salary-cap info via CapFriendly unless otherwise noted. Advanced statistics via Natural Stat Trick.