Buying or Selling Every NHL Team's Playoff Chances Post-Thanksgiving
The NHL is at the quarter point of the 2023-24 season, and that means teams are giving us a solid idea of what they are capable of this year.
Thanksgiving is also seen as a good barometer for which teams might end up in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, as there is evidence that roughly 76 percent of teams in postseason position at that point will stay there.
So with that in mind we are going to buy and sell the playoff chances for each team using the latest DraftKings postseason odds as a guide.
We have broken the clubs down into four tiers: Those that are probably destined to either make the playoffs with ease or miss the playoffs without much of a chance, teams that are odds-on favorites to make the postseason, those that are on the bubble and teams that are long-shots.
Easy Buys and Obvious Sells
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Definitely making the playoffs: Boston Bruins, New York Rangers, Vegas Golden Knights, Colorado Avalanche, Dallas Stars, Los Angeles Kings
This is a collection of the best teams in the NHL that have all jumped out to pretty big leads in their respective division and conference.
All six of these teams are -2000 or better to make the playoffs and are all among the best in the league both in terms of their rosters, their on-ice performance and their place in the standings.
Each one has a points percentage of .684 or better (a 112-point pace over 82 games) and looks to be a bona fide Stanley Cup contender.
Just for some perspective on how far ahead of the pack these teams are, Dallas has the "worst" record among this group and is on a 112-point pace entering the week. Ninety-five points is usually considered a safe cut-off point for guaranteeing yourself a playoff spot in a typical year. The Stars would only need 69 points in their remaining 63 games to reach that mark. So basically anything better than slightly above .500 play gets them in.
All of these teams seem like playoff locks as of this week.
Definitely missing the playoffs: San Jose Sharks, Chicago Blackhawks, Columbus Blue Jackets, Anaheim Ducks, Montreal Canadiens
At the opposite end of the spectrum we have these five teams that are either just starting their rebuilds (Chicago, San Jose), desperately need a rebuild (Columbus), or are still a year or two away from taking a big step toward contention as part of their rebuild (Anaheim, Montreal).
All five teams here are +1200 or higher to make the playoffs. They are not just long shots. They seem completely out of it already.
Montreal (.476 points percentage) has the best record out of this group and would need 75 points in its remaining 61 games just to reach the 95-point mark. That would be a .614 points percentage the rest of the way. That is probably not going to happen for the Habs, and certainly not for the other four teams.
Favorites to Make the Playoffs
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Teams in this range: Carolina Hurricanes, Winnipeg Jets, Vancouver Canucks, Toronto Maple Leafs, Florida Panthers, New Jersey Devils, Tampa Bay Lightning, Edmonton Oilers, Pittsburgh Penguins
Carolina Hurricanes (-550): Buy
The Hurricanes haven't played at the level we are accustomed to in recent years, but this is still one of the league's best, deepest rosters, and they have the second-best expected goals share during five-on-five play.
The talent is there, the process is there and they are still off to a decent start (.600 points percentage). The biggest problem so far has been their goaltending, which has a league-worst .867 save percentage. But it is a testament to how good they are as a team that they are still in this spot with goaltending that bad. Once the goalies get on track, this team will take off.
Winnipeg Jets (-500): Buy
The Jets have gone on a hot streak in recent weeks and banked a lot of points in the standings that are going to give them a nice cushion.
The two big things they have going for them: The Central Division is extremely top-heavy and there is not much serious competition after Colorado and Dallas. And for as flawed as the Jets roster is, they still have a lot of high-end talent and a great goalie. The Jets are not a Stanley Cup contender. But they seem positioned for a playoff spot.
Vancouver Canucks (-450): Sell
On one hand, the Canucks have positioned themselves extremely well with a 14-7-1 record through their first 22 games. Since the start of the 2005-06 season there have been 100 teams that won at least 14 games through the first 22 of a season, and 91 of them went on to make the playoffs. So history is on their side. The Canucks have not just won these games, they have won a lot of them by huge margins.
So why sell their playoff chances?
None of this early success seems sustainable. It is all percentage-driven, from a 10.6 team shooting percentage at five-on-five (and a league-leading 13.5 percent in all situations), to a .925 save percentage from Thatcher Demko. They have already shown some signs of slowing down, and even in a wide-open Western Conference, this just seems like a mirage.
Toronto Maple Leafs (-450): Buy
The Maple Leafs have some flaws and some question marks. The goaltending? Not sure how much it can be trusted. The depth? Maybe not what they hoped. But the Leafs still have the Big Four of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares and William Nylander and they are all having sensational seasons.
Whether or not the Maple Leafs actually do anything once they get to the playoffs remains to be seen. And the roster might still need some big work before the trade deadline. But it would be an absolute shock if this team missed the playoffs.
Florida Panthers (-400): Buy
The Panthers are probably closer to the team that eked into the playoffs a year ago than the team that got white hot and reached the Stanley Cup Final, but this is still a very strong roster and a very good team with a ton of offensive firepower.
Goaltending will still be a big question, and they might not be one of the top teams in the standings when the season ends, but they should have enough to be a playoff team either as a No. 2 or 3 seed in the Atlantic or a wild card.
New Jersey Devils (-220): Buy
The Devils have put themselves in a tough spot to start the season, but injuries to Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier and Timo Meier have taken a lot of fire power out of the lineup for an extended period. The goaltending might need to be addressed to put them on a Stanley Cup contending tier (.876 save percentage, No. 29 in the league), but getting a fully healthy roster should at least get them back into a playoff position.
Tampa Bay Lightning (-200): Buy
The Lightning managed to stay afloat for the first quarter of the season while not having their starting goalie—and one of their best players—in Andrei Vasilevskiy. The fact that they won as many games as they did with Jonas Johansson and Matt Tomkins in goal should strike fear into the rest of the Eastern Conference.
Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point and Steven Stamkos are still game-changers, and now they have one of the best goalies in the world back in the lineup. Easy buy here.
Edmonton Oilers (-160): Buy
It would be easy to write off the Oilers given how bad their start has been, but do that at your own risk.
They still have Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, and McDavid is really starting to heat up, having posted nine points in his two most recent games.
The Oilers also have some of the best underlying five-on-five numbers in the league when it comes to scoring chances and expected goals, while their power play has been good, but not the nuclear option we have seen in the past.
They have another gear they can get to. The biggest issue so far has been (as expected) goaltending. That will need to be addressed. But they have enough talent, and the Western Conference is wide open enough for them to get back in this.
Pittsburgh Penguins (-125): Buy
The Penguins are in the same position as the Oilers, only in the Eastern Conference. Future Hall of Famers at the top of the lineup, outstanding underlying numbers across the board, but disappointing results.
The Penguins' big Achilles' heel is not necessarily their goaltending, but a power-play unit that has been one of the league's worst (12.5 percent, No. 26). They need to do a better job closing games, but if they can get the power play back on track, this team can still make some noise and at least reach the playoffs.
Teams on the Bubble
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Detroit Red Wings (+120): Sell
The Steve Yzerman era has been a pretty big disappointment in Detroit so far, but there is some progress finally being shown this season. The Alex DeBrincat trade has brought a ton of offense into the lineup, but there are still some problems here for making the playoffs.
For one, the Red Wings' underlying numbers (especially their 47 percent expected goal share at five-on-five) are concerning, and the goaltending is not really inspiring much confidence. They are also playing in the wrong division and the wrong conference, considering how tough the Atlantic and East as a whole are. They should be able to hang in the race, but not enough to be a playoff team.
Calgary Flames (+140): Sell
For the Flames to bounce back and get into the playoffs, they needed two things to happen. Jonathan Huberdeau needs to become a top-tier offensive force again, and Jacob Markstrom to play like a No. 1 goalie again. Neither has happened, and the Flames do not have enough depth to make up for that.
Ottawa Senators (+145): Sell
There were some real expectations for the Senators this season to maybe contend for a playoff spot, and the top of the roster is absolutely good enough to do so. The top of the roster is also probably good enough to be the foundation of a potential championship-caliber team in the future. But a bad start, some bad scoring depth and sub-par goaltending will hold them back for at least another year.
Nashville Predators (+160): Sell
The Predators are stuck in the middle between rebuilding and trying to contend. That never ends well. There are some really good players still on the roster (Filip Forsberg is having a great year; Roman Josi and Juuse Saros are still great), but there is not enough here to be a playoff team.
New York Islanders (+160): Sell
The Islanders always seem to defy their underlying numbers because they have one of the league's best goalies in Ilya Sorokin. He is the single biggest reason they sneaked into the playoffs a year ago, and is the single biggest reason they even have a chance this season.
But beyond him, there simply is not a lot to get excited about. For a team that has a reputation for being strong defensively, the Isles bleed shots and chances against, they do not score and they do not have many difference-makers offensively.
St. Louis Blues (+180): Sell
The Blues have not been a particularly good defensive team for a few years now, and that has not changed this season. The one thing that kept them in it early in the season was the fact that Jordan Binnington actually got off to a strong start in goal. But his numbers are starting to regress to where you might expect them to be (.909 save percentage, 2.89 GAA), and if that regression continues, things could rapidly change in St. Louis.
Minnesota Wild (+160): Buy
The Wild have been one of the league's most disappointing teams so far and already made a coaching change, firing Dean Evason and replacing him with John Hynes. It is debatable as to how much of an impact that will have.
But for all of the Wild's flaws, and for as bad as this 5-10-4 start has been, there is still reason to believe they can fix this. Especially if Kirill Kaprizov starts getting hot offensively and if the goaltending gets back on track. The duo of Filip Gustavsson and Marc-Andre Fleury helped carry the Wild to a playoff spot a year ago, and so far both have struggled. They are better than this, and at some point they will start to play like it.
Seattle Kraken (+180): Buy
The Kraken were one of the NHL's biggest surprises a year ago, making the playoffs in the second year of their existence and eliminating the defending Stanley Cup champion Colorado Avalanche in the first round.
That set a high bar for this season, and then they came out and lost their first four games.
But Seattle is a pretty stingy defensive team (fifth-best in expected goals against per 60 minutes) and has a deep lineup of forwards. The Kraken are starting to turn things around with three wins in their last five, and if they can keep defending the way they have, they should be able to secure at least a wild-card spot.
Washington Capitals (+190): Sell
The Capitals looked awful in their first couple of games and then started to get hot in November. They did so with terrible defensive metrics, no offense from their stars and a shockingly bad power play that has been one of the worst in the NHL.
The thing that is keeping them in it has been some unexpectedly strong goaltending from Charlie Lindgren. How long can the Capitals rely on that? Probably not for 82 games.
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The Long Shots
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Buffalo Sabres (+280): Sell
The Sabres missed the playoffs by a single point a year ago and extended their playoff drought to 12 consecutive seasons. That step forward, combined with one of the most exciting young offensive teams in the league, sent expectations to the highest they have been in more than a decade.
But so far the offense has not been as good as it was a year ago, they are struggling defensively and there has been some serious inconsistency with the goaltending. The Eastern Conference is too deep to overcome all of that.
Philadelphia Flyers (+400): Sell
The Flyers have definitely been one of the bigger surprise success stories in the league this season, and they have the return of a healthy Sean Couturier and Cam Atkinson to help for a lot of that.
But this is still a team in the early stages of a rebuild that is short on talent and still has a ways to go before it competes. Coach John Tortorella will have them competing hard all season, but the results will eventually fade.
Arizona Coyotes (+500): Sell
This might be the most intriguing Coyotes team since the early 2010s when they made the playoffs three years in a row. Logan Cooley looks like a franchise cornerstone and an emerging star, Clayton Keller is a top-line scorer, and they actually have some decent veteran depth and some players who can keep them competitive.
But there are simply not enough difference-makers here to make them a playoff team just yet. There is a light at the end of the tunnel from a big-picture perspective, but it is not here just yet.
Data in this post via Natural Stat Trick and Hockey Reference's Stathead.
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