2024 Men's NCAA Tournament Bracket: Latest Projection of the Field of 68
After all of the complaining about the lack of marquee matchups in the opening week of the 2023-24 men's college basketball season, the smorgasbord of enthralling games played in neutral-site tournaments during Feast Week was almost too much to handle.
But just like that fifth heaping sandwich of Thanksgiving leftovers, we somehow managed and came out on the other side with an updated projection for the 2024 NCAA tournament field, where your new No. 1 seeds are Purdue, Arizona, Houston and Connecticut.
Yes, it's still ridiculously early in the year for bracket projections. And, yes, there's still a lot of preseason expectations baked into the team rankings from KenPom, BartTorvik, EvanMiya and Haslametrics which are the backbone of this projection as we wait another week or two for the first batch of NET rankings. (Last year's initial NET rankings dropped on Dec. 5, so it should be soon-ish.)
Based on what we've seen through the first half of nonconference play, though, here's what the projected field looks like today.
We'll start with the full bracket before some brief commentary on the current state of the bubble and a full conference-by-conference rundown, highlighting some of the biggest changes from one week ago.
The Projected Bracket
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EAST REGION (Boston)
Brooklyn, NY
No. 1 Connecticut vs. No. 16 McNeese State
No. 8 Illinois vs. No. 9 Texas Tech
Salt Lake City, UT
No. 4 BYU vs. No. 13 UC Irvine
No. 5 Texas A&M vs. No. 12 Dayton
Charlotte, NC
No. 3 Tennessee vs. No. 14 UNC Greensboro
No. 6 Texas vs. No. 11 Nebraska
Charlotte, NC
No. 2 Duke vs. No. 15 Winthrop
No. 7 Florida Atlantic vs. No. 10 Florida
MIDWEST REGION (Detroit)
Indianapolis, IN
No. 1 Purdue vs. No. 16 Sacred Heart/Prairie View A&M
No. 8 Iowa State vs. No. 9 Memphis
Pittsburgh, PA
No. 4 North Carolina vs. No. 13 Grand Canyon
No. 5 Kentucky vs. No. 12 Liberty
Brooklyn, NY
No. 3 Villanova vs. No. 14 Colgate
No. 6 Auburn vs. No. 11 Cincinnati/South Carolina
Omaha, NE
No. 2 Kansas vs. No. 15 Wright State
No. 7 San Diego State vs. No. 10 USC
SOUTH REGION (Dallas)
Memphis, TN
No. 1 Houston vs. No. 16 Iona
No. 8 Michigan State vs. No. 9 Clemson
Omaha, NE
No. 4 Miami vs. No. 13 UMass Lowell
No. 5 Mississippi State vs. No. 12 Princeton
Pittsburgh, PA
No. 3 Alabama vs. No. 14 Hofstra
No. 6 Oklahoma vs. No. 11 Ole Miss/Wisconsin
Indianapolis, IN
No. 2 Marquette vs. No. 15 South Dakota State
No. 7 Ohio State vs. No. 10 Colorado
WEST REGION (Los Angeles)
Salt Lake City, UT
No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 16 Morehead State/Howard
No. 8 Virginia vs. No. 9 Nevada
Spokane, WA
No. 4 Creighton vs. No. 13 Kent State
No. 5 TCU vs. No. 12 Bradley
Spokane, WA
No. 3 Gonzaga vs. No. 14 Weber State
No. 6 Colorado State vs. No. 11 James Madison
Memphis, TN
No. 2 Baylor vs. No. 15 Lipscomb
No. 7 UCLA vs. No. 10 Providence
10 Words on Each of the 10 'Bubbliest' Teams
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Fifth-to-Last In: Nebraska Cornhuskers (7-0)—Undefeated through seven games for the first time since 1992.
Fourth-to-Last In: Wisconsin Badgers (5-2)—Bounced back from 1-2 start to win Fort Myers Tip-Off.
Third-to-Last In: Cincinnati Bearcats (5-0)—All five wins by double digits, but against weak schedule.
Second-to-Last In: South Carolina Gamecocks (5-0)—Neutral wins over Grand Canyon and Virginia Tech. Breakthrough year?
Last Team In: Ole Miss Rebels (5-0)—Undefeated...barely. Pathetic schedule so far. Ranked 127th on KenPom.
****Cut Line****
First Team Out: Arkansas Razorbacks (4-3)—Wednesday's home game against Duke? Darn near a must-win affair.
Second Team Out: Oregon Ducks (4-2)—Lost to Santa Clara and Alabama in Emerald Coast Classic.
Third Team Out: Iowa Hawkeyes (4-2)—Open Big Ten play at Purdue next Monday. Huge one.
Fourth Team Out: Kansas State Wildcats (4-2)—Not quite there, but Big 12 play could change that.
Fifth Team Out: Virginia Tech Hokies (5-2)—Would've been in, but got annihilated by FAU on Sunday.
ACC Summary
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5 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 7. Duke, 13. North Carolina, 15. Miami, 32. Virginia, 34. Clemson
Also Considered: Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh, NC State
Biggest Change: Miami continues its slow climb
Aside from the obligatory "Who cares about bracketology in November?" comments, the vast majority of the outrage in response to last week's bracket was regarding Miami getting a No. 5 seed (No. 19 overall) despite climbing to No. 10 in the AP poll.
So after a week in which not much changed in the ACC, let's pull at that thread a little bit.
First and foremost, the AP poll does not matter, so jot that down.
Second, what we are primarily using for seeding and selection (until NET rankings are first released in early December) are the predictive metrics from KenPom, BartTorvik, EvanMiya and Haslametrics.
And those metrics?
They hate Miami.
Prior to the win over Kansas State two Sundays ago, the 'Canes were rated 39th or worse in all four algorithms. And even as of this past Sunday morning, they remained outside the top 30 on all four sites.
Sure, that's more rooted in what Miami had been in recent years than what it has been thus far in November, but early returns do suggest that the Hurricanes are once again going to be mediocre at best on defense, which will leave them prone to the occasional ugly loss on nights when their elite perimeter offense isn't firing on all cylinders.
That said, Miami is 5-0 with solid wins over Kansas State, UCF and Georgia, and it benefitted from losses by Creighton, Texas and Texas A&M to move up another seed line.
The Hurricanes have a massive game at Kentucky Tuesday night, in which a win would bump them up into our top 10. Maybe it'll convince the predictive metrics to believe in them a bit, too.
Big 12 Summary
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10 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 3. Houston, 6. Kansas, 8. Baylor, 14. BYU, 19. TCU, 22. Texas, 24. Oklahoma, 30. Iowa State, 36. Texas Tech, 43. Cincinnati
Also Considered: Kansas State
Biggest Change: Oklahoma makes a serious leap
One week ago, Oklahoma—which opened the season around 50th in the consensus metrics—was 4-0 with a bunch of convincing-but-meaningless victories over Central Michigan, Mississippi Valley State, Texas State and UT Rio Grande Valley. The Sooners had climbed a good 20 spots on KenPom into the top 30, but we barely had them in our projected field in advance of playing in the Rady Children's Invitational with three other Power Six programs.
They emerged victorious from that four-team field, defeating Iowa by double digits before eking out a last-second victory over USC in a back-and-forth battle.
Considering we had the Hawkeyes as a No. 9 seed and USC as a No. 8 seed one week ago, 'twas an impressive pair of victories for the transfer-heavy Sooners.
Jalen Moore (formerly of Georgia Tech) led the way with 18 points (on just seven field-goal attempts) against Iowa, and then it was Javian McCollum (Siena) doing the heavy lifting with 18 against USC.
It was a breakout returnee who saved the day, though, with Otega Oweh—who is averaging a team-high 15.0 points and 2.3 steals per game—getting the game-winning tip-in against the Trojans.
Porter Moser's first two seasons in Norman didn't go anywhere near as well as Sooners fans hoped, but he might have something brewing this year. December games against Providence, Arkansas and North Carolina should give us a better sense of where this team might land in the loaded Big 12.
Big East Summary
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5 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 4. Connecticut, 5. Marquette, 12. Villanova, 16. Creighton, 39. Providence
Also Considered: St. John's, Xavier
Biggest Change: Villanova soars after winning Battle 4 Atlantis
Year No. 2 of the Kyle Neptune era at Villanova got out to a rough start, losing to Penn in a Big Five rivalry matchup that the Wildcats had pretty well owned for two decades running.
Considering that came immediately on the heels of an underachieving 17-17 record last season, things could have gotten ugly for Neptune in a hurry.
But four days after the embarrassing loss to Penn, Villanova put Maryland in a meat grinder for a 57-40 victory in its final tune-up before the Battle 4 Atlantis—where the Wildcats scored strong wins over Texas Tech, North Carolina and Memphis.
Veteran big man Eric Dixon put on a show, racking up 64 points and 24 rebounds in the event, including a 34 and 10 effort while substantially outplaying Armando Bacot in the overtime victory over UNC in the semifinals. Justin Moore also scored in double figures in all three games, and he had nine assists against one turnover.
In the championship game against Memphis, Villanova led by as many as 35 points in the second half before taking its foot off the gas and letting the Tigers make the final margin a little more respectable.
Something about that ballroom in the Bahamas just brings out the best in Villanova, as it is now a perfect 9-0 in the Battle 4 Atlantis, previously winning in both 2013 and 2017. And each prior B4A title was the beginning of a special run, going a combined 65-9 between those two seasons, including winning the 2018 national championship.
Big Ten Summary
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6 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 1. Purdue, 27. Ohio State, 29. Michigan State, 31. Illinois, 41. Nebraska, 42. Wisconsin
Also Considered: Michigan, Iowa, Indiana, Northwestern
Biggest Change: Purdue cements itself at No. 1
With Michigan State sitting at 3-3 and in a relentless freefall after opening the year as a projected No. 1 seed, championship-caliber depth isn't exactly something the Big Ten can boast right now.
Ohio State is the league's second-highest seeded team at a No. 7, and we could be a week away from starting to ask whether Nebraska is actually the second-best team in the Big Ten—which would be simultaneously a big compliment to the Cornhuskers and a bigger red flag for the conference as a whole.
At least the Big Ten has Purdue, though, which came back from the Maui Invitational with a ridiculously strong NCAA tournament resume.
The Boilermakers already had a nice home win over Xavier before making their way to the land of the luaus, but now they also have neutral-site victories over Gonzaga, Tennessee and Marquette—presently our No. 10, No. 9 and No. 5 overall seeds, respectively.
All three battles were relatively close, but Purdue did not trail at any point in the final 14 minutes of any game in Maui. Zach Edey averaged 25.3 points and 13.0 rebounds, as he has begun to run away with National Player of the Year once again.
Make all the Fairleigh Dickinson jokes you want. Goodness knows we will, too. But the Boilermakers are almost indisputably the best team in the nation at this point in time.
Pac-12 Summary
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4 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 2. Arizona, 28. UCLA, 37. USC, 38. Colorado
Also Considered: Oregon, Utah
Biggest Change: UCLA impressed, even in defeat
From a purely quality wins and losses perspective, UCLA's resume is atrocious. The Bruins' four wins were three home games against teams ranked in the bottom 50 on KenPom and a game against Chaminade in the Maui Invitational. That's it.
But we knew that at least two good teams were going to leave Maui with at least two losses, and UCLA certainly looked the part of a contender in its two-point loss to Marquette and four-point loss to Gonzaga.
In particular, Sebastian Mack was a revelation. The freshman guard averaged 19 points, 6.3 rebounds, 2.7 steals and 2.3 assists in Maui, making a living at the free-throw line, going 20-for-22 from the charity stripe between the two losses.
The Bruins simply did not have an answer for Marquette's David Joplin or Gonzaga's Anton Watson, as apparently 6'8" stretch-forwards are going to be a problem for them.
Even that should improve with time, though, as 6'9" Berke Buyuktuncel was cleared by the NCAA just before the start of the Maui Invitational, while 7'3" Aday Mara is still figuring out this whole college game. If either freshman big man manages to tap into his potential in short order, the Bruins are going to be a problem.
So, we're calling that the Pac-12's big 'change' for the week: That UCLA went 1-2 with a win over Chaminade and didn't slip a single spot on our overall seed list. If you're selling any Bruins stock because of the 4-2 start, we'll buy it, thanks.
SEC Summary
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9 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 9. Tennessee, 11. Alabama, 17. Mississippi State, 18. Kentucky, 20. Texas A&M, 21. Auburn, 40. Florida, 44. South Carolina, 45. Ole Miss
Also Considered: Arkansas
Biggest Change: Adios, Arkansas
After three consecutive years finishing top 20 in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, Arkansas has been uncommonly ineffective on that end of the floor thus far this season, resulting in three early losses.
The Hogs are still solid in the paint on defense, with Trevon Brazile, Makhi Mitchell and Chandler Lawson all providing good rim protection. At any rate, let's just say that UNC's Armando Bacot finishing with nine points and four rebounds isn't the reason the Tar Heels beat the Razorbacks by 15.
It's the perimeter defense that just has not been the same.
Through seven games, Arkansas has finished with four or fewer steals five times, including each of its three losses. The Razorbacks had five such games in the entire 2022-23 campaign, and only three the year before that.
That lack of ball pressure goes hand-in-hand with opponents shooting better than 35 percent from three-point range and scoring over 75 points per game.
Freshman Layden Blocker received a drastic uptick in playing time in the Battle 4 Atlantis (at the expense of El Ellis) and had six steals in 71 minutes played. Maybe he can bring the defensive intensity along the perimeter that has been lacking.
For now, though, after losses to UNC Greensboro, Memphis and North Carolina, Arkansas needs to prove that it belongs in the field.
A win over Duke Wednesday night would be a massive leap in that direction, but a loss to the Blue Devils would leave the Razorbacks at 4-4—an eight-game start from which they have not recovered to make the NCAA tournament since 1949.
Frequent Multi-Bid Mid-Majors Summary
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7 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 10. Gonzaga, 23. Colorado State, 25. San Diego State, 26. Florida Atlantic, 33. Memphis, 35. Nevada, 49. Dayton
Also Considered: New Mexico, Saint Mary's
Biggest Change: Colorado State catapults into the field
One week ago, Colorado State was "in position to be in position," as Jon Rothstein would say. The Rams weren't quite among our First Five Out, but they were one of 15 teams (First Five Out plus 10 others) listed as Also Considered.
And in beating Creighton by 21 in the championship of the Hall of Fame Classic, Colorado State has skyrocketed comfortably into the projected field.
What was wild about that outcome is CSU didn't even shoot all that well. Isaiah Stevens had one of his typically great games (20 points, seven assists, six rebounds), but the Rams shot 5-of-19 from three-point range and only attempted five free throws.
However, they defended the heck out of Creighton, which looked like it made the mistake of eating its Thanksgiving dinner right before the game began. The Bluejays had averaged 91.2 points during their 5-0 start, but they couldn't buy a bucket against the Rams, scoring fewer than 50 points against a nonconference opponent for the first time in at least 25 years.
Regardless of how or why it played out the way it did, that blowout definitely happened, and Colorado State now has one fantastic win to go along with its previous decent victories over Boston College, Louisiana Tech and Wright State.
The Rams will now enter their upcoming games against Colorado and Washington hoping to further solidify their spot in the field. A win against either Pac-12 team would improve the odds of the Mountain West getting three or even four teams into the dance.
One-Bid Leagues Summary
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22 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 46. James Madison, 47. Liberty, 48. Bradley, 50. Princeton, 51. Grand Canyon, 52. UC Irvine, 53. Kent State, 54. UMass Lowell, 55. UNC Greensboro, 56. Hofstra, 57. Weber State, 58. Colgate, 59. Wright State, 60. Winthrop, 61. South Dakota State, 62. Lipscomb, 63. Iona, 64. McNeese State, 65. Morehead State, 66. Howard, 67. Sacred Heart, 68. Prairie View A&M
Biggest Change: Bradley remains unbeaten; building a legitimate at-large resume
A multi-bid staple once upon a time, the Missouri Valley Conference has produced just one at-large team in the past six tournaments, when Drake barely snuck into the 2021 dance as the last team in the field.
But if Bradley ends up needing some help from the selection committee to get into the 2024 NCAA tournament, it is building quite the early case for at-large consideration.
No, the Braves haven't done anything quite as impressive as what James Madison (won at Michigan State), what UNC Greensboro (won at Arkansas) or what Colorado State (smoked Creighton) did. But 6-0 with all six games coming against teams ranked in the KenPom top 170 is nothing to shake a stick at.
Bradley defeated both Tulane and UTEP to win the SoCal Challenge before returning home for a solid nine-point win over Vermont. This came after opening the season with a road win over UAB, as well as home wins over Utah State and Tarleton State.
Save for beating the weakest of those opponents (Tarleton State) by 23, all of the wins were by single digits. And the Braves needed overtime to finish off both UAB and Utah State. As a result, they've yet to make any serious strides in the predictive metrics where margin of victory reigns supreme.
When the initial NET rankings come out, though, Bradley is maybe looking at four Quadrant 2 wins and perhaps a top 50 ranking of its own. Definitely a team to keep a close eye on, who still has nonconference games remaining against Akron, Cleveland State and Duquesne.
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