2024 Men's NCAA Tournament Bracket: Latest Projection of the Field of 68
With Feast Week in full swing and neutral-site tournaments playing out all over the country, there's really no better time for our first in-season projection for the 2024 men's NCAA tournament, where Kansas, Purdue, Houston and Connecticut are the early top candidates for No. 1 seeds.
For the most part—let's call it 75 percent—this bracket projection is based on preseason expectations. After all, we don't even have NET rankings yet to start talking about Quad 1 wins and Quad 4 losses, and the 362-team ranking systems that we did utilize (KenPom, BartTorvik, EvanMiya and Haslametrics) all still have a lot of preseason data baked into the numbers.
It probably won't be until early January that our projections are fully rooted in what has happened on the court this season.
That said, there have already been considerable changes from our preseason projection based on what has transpired over the first 15 days of the regular season.
Preseason No. 6 seed Saint Mary's and No. 7 seeds Maryland and Wisconsin have already been kicked to the curb after rough starts, with BYU the most noteworthy of the teams skyrocketing into the field to replace them. There were also significant MSU updates, with Michigan State plummeting while Mississippi State soars.
But we'll get to most of that in a bit.
First, let's dive into the new bracket and address the current state of the bubble before our conference-by-conference rundown.
The Projected Bracket
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EAST REGION (Boston)
Brooklyn, NY
No. 1 Connecticut vs. No. 16 McNeese State
No. 8 Memphis vs. No. 9 Iowa
Spokane, WA
No. 4 Kentucky vs. No. 13 UC Irvine
No. 5 TCU vs. No. 12 Grand Canyon
Charlotte, NC
No. 3 Duke vs. No. 14 Furman
No. 6 Auburn vs. No. 11 Oklahoma
Charlotte, NC
No. 2 Tennessee vs. No. 15 Wright State
No. 7 Villanova vs. No. 10 Texas Tech
MIDWEST REGION (Detroit)
Indianapolis, IN
No. 1 Purdue vs. No. 16 Howard/Tennessee State
No. 8 Arkansas vs. No. 9 Oregon
Pittsburgh, PA
No. 4 Texas A&M vs. No. 13 Drake
No. 5 Miami vs. No. 12 Liberty
Omaha, NE
No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 14 Colgate
No. 6 Virginia vs. No. 11 Providence/Nebraska
Indianapolis, IN
No. 2 Marquette vs. No. 15 Winthrop
No. 7 Florida Atlantic vs. No. 10 Clemson
SOUTH REGION (Dallas)
Omaha, NE
No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 16 Sacred Heart/Jackson State
No. 8 USC vs. No. 9 Michigan
Brooklyn, NY
No. 4 North Carolina vs. No. 13 Kent State
No. 5 Mississippi State vs. No. 12 Dayton
Pittsburgh, PA
No. 3 Alabama vs. No. 14 UNC-Wilmington
No. 6 Iowa State vs. No. 11 James Madison
Memphis, TN
No. 2 Creighton vs. No. 15 Eastern Kentucky
No. 7 UCLA vs. No. 10 Nevada
WEST REGION (Los Angeles)
Memphis, TN
No. 1 Houston vs. No. 16 Iona
No. 8 Colorado vs. No. 9 Illinois
Salt Lake City, UT
No. 4 Texas vs. No. 13 Vermont
No. 5 Michigan State vs. No. 12 Princeton
Spokane, WA
No. 3 Gonzaga vs. No. 14 Weber State
No. 6 San Diego State vs. No. 11 Ohio State/Florida
Salt Lake City, UT
No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 15 Oral Roberts
No. 7 BYU vs. No. 10 Pittsburgh
Last Five In
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Fifth-to-Last In: Oklahoma Sooners
Nothing yet worth reporting here, as Oklahoma opened the season with four easy wins. The Sooners will face Iowa and either Seton Hall or USC later this week in the Rady Children's Invitational. That will provide the first real glimpse into whether this team is going to amount to something in Porter Moser's third season.
Fourth-to-Last In: Providence Friars
An overtime loss to Kansas State is the only thing standing between Kim English and a 5-0 start to his Providence career. The Friars did score an impressive, convincing win over Wisconsin at part of the Gavitt Games, and bounced back from the KSU loss to beat Georgia in the Baha Mar consolation game. They could be a really good squad once Bryce Hopkins gets back to playing like he did last year.
Third-to-Last In: Florida Gators
The Gators took a tough loss in a great neutral-site game against Virginia and have otherwise won each of their games by 20 points. That includes blowing out Florida State in that annual rivalry. Everyone talked all offseason about Riley Kugel as one of the top breakout candidates in the country, but Marshall transfer Micah Handlogten has been a certifiable problem already. He went for 14 points and 14 rebounds in the UVA game and remains an elite rebounder.
Second-to-Last In: Ohio State Buckeyes
Beating Oakland by just six points in the season opener was more concerning than losing to Texas A&M a few days later, but we'll reserve judgment on the Buckeyes until this weekend's Emerald Coast Classic, where they open with Alabama.
Last Team In: Nebraska Cornhuskers
Are there more likely tournament candidates out there? Probably. But are we going to pass up the chance to throw a bone to Nebrasketball for improving to 5-0 for the first time since 2008-09? Hell no. We'll find out in two weeks when they face Creighton if the Cornhuskers have any staying power as a threat to go dancing, but maybe, just maybe, Fred Hoiberg finally has something here.
First Five Out
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First Team Out: Xavier Musketeers
We'll have more to say about the X-Men in the Big East summary, but not a stellar start to the year for Sean Miller and Co. The Musketeers don't need to beat Houston on Dec. 1, but it sure would be huge.
Second Team Out: North Carolina State Wolfpack
For the seventh time in the last eight seasons, NC State jumps out to a 3-0 start against an ugly nonconference schedule. The Wolfpack have gotten good early returns from Butler transfer Jayden Taylor, though. If he's gearing up to build on what was already an impressive final six weeks of last season, this team could be in business.
Third Team Out: Wisconsin Badgers
In what was one of the most stunning final margins of the young season, Wisconsin destroyed Virginia by 24 on a neutral court Monday night. It was almost impressive enough for us to forget about the Badgers' prior losses to Tennessee and Providence and put them back in the projected field. However, there's still something weird going on in Madison with Connor Essegian barely seeing the floor. Can't wait for the early December stretch against Marquette, Michigan State and Arizona to finally start to figure out this team.
Fourth Team Out: Kansas State Wildcats
It's probably premature to drop Kansas State out for a pair of losses to USC and Miami, but let's see what the Wildcats look like if and when they get Nae'Qwan Tomlin and Ques Glover available.
Fifth Team Out: Boise State Broncos
Max Rice and Tyson Degenhart simply did not bring their A game in what ended up being a 17-point loss at Clemson on Sunday afternoon, but Boise State will have plenty more chances to show what it can do. Don't be shocked if the Broncos mess around and win the ESPN Events Invitational, which could mean victories over Virginia Tech, Iowa State and Texas A&M.
ACC Summary
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6 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 9. Duke, 15. North Carolina, 19. Miami, 25. Virginia, 37. Clemson, 40. Pittsburgh
Also Considered: NC State
Biggest Change: Pittsburgh joins the field
After just barely sneaking into the 2023 NCAA tournament as a member of the First Four, Pitt had the daunting offseason task of replacing its entire backcourt rotation.
Jeff Capel did put together a solid freshman class featuring three top 100 recruits. He also added a quality transfer in former Rhode Island Ram Ishmael Leggett, as well as a seventh-year senior with some D-I experience in Michael Hueitt Jr.
But it was unclear if or how it would all come together, and the Panthers entered the year as a gigantic question mark because of it.
Between the emergence of Leggett and freshman Carlton Carrington, though, this team looks pretty legitimate. The former is averaging 15 points, eight rebounds and four assists per game. The latter put up a triple-double in his first career game and has scored at least 17 in each game thus far.
Granted, the competition—North Carolina A&T, Binghamton, Florida Gulf Coast and Jacksonville, all at home—wasn't anything special. However, the Panthers have done exactly what you need to do when facing that type of schedule, destroying those four teams by an average of 35 points per game. They've already hit triple digits in a game twice, which is something they hadn't done once since December 2016.
They've got a huge opportunity to prove themselves this week in the NIT Season Tip-Off. Pitt will face Florida on Wednesday with the winner almost certainly drawing Baylor (which should destroy Oregon State) on Friday. And if the Panthers win that four-team tournament, they ought to be ranked on Monday.
Big 12 Summary
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9 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 1. Kansas, 3. Houston, 12. Baylor, 13. Texas, 18. TCU, 21. Iowa State, 23. BYU, 39. Texas Tech, 41. Oklahoma
Also Considered: Kansas State, Cincinnati
Biggest Change: BYU makes a big splash
There are quite a few at-large teams in this projection who were not in our preseason field, but almost all of those teams are in the Nos. 9-11 seed range.
Then there's BYU, which catapults into the mix as a No. 6 seed* after three merciless blowouts (each by at least 43 points) of overmatched competition, bookending a statement win over 2023 national runner-up and then-17th-ranked San Diego State.
In that key home victory over the Aztecs, the Cougars trailed by four with 11 minutes remaining. But sophomore Dallin Hall took over down the stretch, scoring 13 of his team-high 18 points in the span of six minutes as BYU pulled ahead for good.
Hall is one of seven Cougars averaging at least 9.0 PPG in the early going, but don't put much stock in that, as they scored 110 against Houston Christian and 105 against Southeastern Louisiana. That certainly won't be the norm, but impressive all the same from a team that hadn't scored more than 93 against a D-I foe in either of the past two seasons.
(Heck, scoring 74 against San Diego State's usually elite defense was a noteworthy offensive feat, too.)
Do we honestly expect to see BYU as a No. 6 seed after going through what will be a meat grinder of a first year in the Big 12? Probably not. But the Cougars have been strong out of the gate and just might be a real contender to finish in the top half of that very deep conference.
*BYU should have been a No. 6 seed based on overall seed, but was flexed to a No. 7 seed to account for its objection to playing on Sunday for religious reasons. It was either a No. 6 with a Charlotte -> Boston path or a No. 7 with a Salt Lake City -> Los Angeles path, and we went with the latter.
Big East Summary
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5 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 4. Connecticut, 5. Marquette, 8. Creighton, 26. Villanova, 42. Providence
Also Considered: Seton Hall, St. John's, Xavier
Biggest Change: Both Xavier and St. John's drop out
Though the Big East has almost indisputably the best top three of any league in the country, the overall depth of the league was a bit of a question mark coming into the season.
And after both Xavier (with losses to Purdue and Washington) and St. John's (with losses to Michigan and Dayton) started out 2-2—while Villanova lost a game to Penn and both DePaul and Georgetown have been comically bad—that narrative hasn't exactly changed for the better.
There was certainly no shame in Xavier's loss to Purdue in West Lafayette. The Musketeers actually put up a pretty good fight in that one, bothering Purdue's backcourt enough to keep things interesting until midway through the second half. But turning around and losing to Washington late Friday night was a letdown.
They did at least respond with a convincing win over Saint Mary's Sunday night, but as we'll get to later, the Gaels might be just plain bad this season.
Meanwhile, St. John's got worked at home in that loss to Michigan, and the defense was even less inspiring in the loss to Dayton in Charleston. Over the previous three seasons at Iona, Rick Pitino's defense only allowed 88 points or more one time, against a Kansas team that eventually won a national championship. Hitting that mark twice in his first four games at St. John's is rather shocking.
Like Xavier, the Johnnies responded with a solid win Sunday night, beating an upstart Utah team in Charleston. But, again, the defense was far from inspiring in that 91-82 ballgame.
Big Ten Summary
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7 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 2. Purdue, 20. Michigan State, 34. Michigan, 35. Illinois, 36. Iowa, 44. Ohio State, 45. Nebraska
Also Considered: Indiana, Northwestern, Wisconsin
Biggest Change: Michigan State plummets (Down four seed lines)
By no means are we prematurely beginning to question whether Michigan State is good enough to make the NCAA tournament.
After 25 consecutive trips to the dance, the Spartans have earned the occasional mulligan.
But after opening the season with a home loss to James Madison and subsequently getting somewhat convincingly beaten by Duke in the Champions Classic, we are at least forced to question whether they can challenge Purdue for the Big Ten title, or claw their way back into the No. 1 seed conversation.
For all the talk of MSU's horrible three-point shooting during last Tuesday's game, the Spartans ended the night against Duke with a better percentage from distance (31.6) than the Blue Devils had (27.3). In that game, Michigan State couldn't handle the physicality of a Duke team that had gotten relentlessly pushed around by Arizona just a few days prior.
The Spartans were also out-rebounded in their loss to James Madison, and they simply haven't gotten enough out of A.J. Hoggard and Jaden Akins in the backcourt to be able to survive losing the frontcourt battle like that.
To iterate, we trust in Tom Izzo. The Spartans will figure things out to some extent, and could undo most of this early damage with a win over Arizona this coming Thursday. But if the preseason AP No. 4 team were to also lose that game to fall to 3-3, the sky might start to fall a little bit in East Lansing.
Pac-12 Summary
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5 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 6. Arizona, 28. UCLA, 29. USC, 30. Colorado, 33. Oregon
Also Considered: Washington, Utah
Biggest Change: USC has some work to do (Drops four seed lines)
On the one hand, we don't want to over-penalize a team for suffering a loss while short-handed, which USC very much was against UC Irvine.
The Trojans did not have Boogie Ellis or Kobe Johnson for that one, and Vincent Iwuchukwu played sparingly after missing the first two games of the year while recovering from offseason back surgery. They pretty much had to ask super freshman Isaiah Collier to go win the game by himself, which he wasn't able to do.
On the other hand, even with Ellis, Johnson and Collier each playing at least 33 minutes and combining for 66 points in the subsequent game at home against a not-good Brown squad, USC didn't exactly flex its muscles in that 81-70 victory. Brown never led after it was 5-4, but it was a tie game with less than five minutes remaining in the second half before the Trojans pulled away.
And if we're not over-penalizing them for losing while short-handed, how much can we really credit them for the season-opening win over Kansas State, which was playing without both Nae'Qwan Tomlin and Ques Glover and figuring out life after Markquis Nowell and Keyontae Johnson?
USC's trio of guards could be some kind of special, but is it enough?
The Trojans play in the Rady Children's Invitational later this week against Seton Hall and either Iowa or Oklahoma. Perhaps that will help answer some of the questions we have about this team after two weeks.
SEC Summary
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8 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 7. Tennessee, 10. Alabama, 14. Texas A&M, 16. Kentucky, 17. Mississippi State, 22. Auburn, 31. Arkansas, 43. Florida
Also Considered: South Carolina
Biggest Change: Mississippi State is legit (Up four seed lines)
The Bulldogs entered the season in our projected field as a No. 9 seed, but they seemed destined to be a middle-of-the-pack, .500-ish team in a loaded SEC. Chris Jans quickly turned them into an excellent defensive team last season in his first year at the helm, but major questions remained about what was a terrible shooting team in 2022-23—especially with last year's leading scorer, Tolu Smith, out indefinitely with a foot injury.
Enter: Josh Hubbard.
This MSU squad is ridiculously old, with five graduate seniors and two conventional seniors all expected to get a lot of playing time this season. But it's a freshman guard who has taken the reins on offense.
Thus far, Hubbard is coming off the bench, but his playing time just keeps increasing with each game, culminating in 29 points in 27 minutes of Sunday's victory over Northwestern in the championship of the HOF Tip-Off. He has scored in double figures in each of his last four games, averaging 16.4 PPG for the season.
He has already made 15 threes (on 34 attempts), putting him on an early pace for roughly 100 triples. No one made more than 40 for Mississippi State last season, as the Bulldogs shot 26.6 percent as a team.
JUCO transfer Trey Fort and MSU's best returning perimeter shooter Dashawn Davis have also both been solid from distance for a team averaging 76.2 points. The Bulldogs finished last year at 65.7 PPG. And early returns suggest they didn't sacrifice anything on defense to make that improvement.
The SEC is pretty darn deep, so the Bulldogs may well still finish in seventh place. But they look the part of a team that could contend for an SEC title.
Frequent Multi-Bid Mid-Majors Summary
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6 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 11. Gonzaga, 24. San Diego State, 27. Florida Atlantic, 32. Memphis, 38. Nevada, 48. Dayton
Also Considered: Boise State, Colorado State, Saint Mary's
Biggest Change: Saint Mary's might be pretty bad
At least as far as the WCC preseason coaches poll was concerned, Saint Mary's was supposed to finish ahead of Gonzaga this year.
Even with the benefit of hindsight? Hard to blame them. Gonzaga had to replace four of its five leading scorers (including Drew Timme) while Saint Mary's—fresh off back-to-back years as a No. 5 seed in the NCAA tournament—retained a trio of double-digit scorers in Aidan Mahaney, Alex Ducas and Mitchell Saxen.
It looked like a great time to jump on the Gaels' bandwagon.
Unfortunately, that bandwagon broke an axle midway through the second half of an epic collapse against Weber State and has yet to even remotely recover.
After blowing that 14-point lead with 12 minutes remaining at home against a mid-major, the Gaels went to Las Vegas for the Continental Tire Main Event and got stomped by both San Diego State and Xavier.
At least against the Aztecs, they had a lead early in the second half before going ice cold again down the stretch. Against the Musketeers, Saint Mary's trailed by double digits for the entire second half.
Here's the glass-half-full news: It's still only November and the Gaels did put together a surprisingly formidable nonconference schedule. If they can get Mahaney to start making shots (9-for-39 in the three losses) and go on a run against Utah, Boise State, Colorado State, UNLV and Kent State, they'll be fine. And there is of course still a good chance they could secure the WCC's auto bid.
But let's just say this isn't the start anyone envisioned for this team, and they now face an uphill battle to get back into the projected field.
One-Bid Leagues Summary
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22 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 46. James Madison, 47. Liberty, 49. Princeton, 50. Grand Canyon, 51. Drake, 52. Kent State, 53. UC Irvine, 54. Vermont, 55. Furman, 56. UNC Wilmington, 57. Colgate, 58. Weber State, 59. Eastern Kentucky, 60. Winthrop, 61. Wright State, 62. South Dakota State, 63. Iona, 64. McNeese State, 65. Howard, 66. Tennessee State, 67. Sacred Heart, 68. Jackson State
Biggest Change: JMU drops the opening night bombshell and just keeps winning
Heading into the regular season, the Sun Belt looked to be as wide open as any league in the country. We had Appalachian State as the projected champ, slotted as our top No. 14 seed.
But while the Mountaineers have started 1-2 with losses to Northern Illinois and Oregon State, James Madison has jumped out to a commanding lead in the early race for Sun Belt supremacy.
Not only did the Dukes begin the year with a stunning road victory over Michigan State, but they proceeded to win at Kent State before scoring home wins over both Howard and Radford.
The Dukes are already ranked in the AP poll for the first time in school history. If they defeat Southern Illinois in their Cancun Challenge opener Tuesday night, they would also be 5-0 for the first time since 1981-82.
Big things brewing in Harrisonburg.
It's way too early to be seriously talking about a possible at-large bid or an undefeated season here, but that win over Michigan State is all but guaranteed to be a Quad 1 result on Selection Sunday. And the win at Kent State should be no worse than a Quad 2 checkmark on JMU's resume, maybe even a second Quad 1 win if the Golden Flashes pan out.
Not suffering too many bad losses will be the key from here, but James Madison sure did a lot of good already.
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