Top 10 Landing Spots for Padres' Josh Hader in MLB Free Agency
After a 2022-23 free agency cycle that featured Edwin Díaz, Craig Kimbrel, Kenley Jansen, Aroldis Chapman and several others with ample ninth-inning experience, this year's closer market is all about one man: Josh Hader.
The five-time All-Star has saved 153 games dating back to the start of 2019, which is the most in the majors. (Only Jansen is remotely close to Hader with 152 during that half-decade.) And now he is available to the highest bidder.
If we're being perfectly honest up front, it's the Texas Rangers vs. The Field here. They won the World Series in spite of their weak bullpen, not because of its dominance. And they would likely enter next season as the favorite to win it all again if they're able to sign Hader.
But let's at least talk about the field's candidates, yeah? Because there sure are a lot of teams that would love to sign one of the most dominant closers in MLB history.
We'll begin by discussing just how great Hader has been compared to his peers and putting a ballpark estimate on how much he'll sign for. Then we'll rank the 10 teams best suited/most desperate to make that acquisition happen.
Josh Hader's Stats and Projected Contract
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Let's start with the contract, which is going to be nine figures.
Edwin Díaz got a five-year, $102 million deal one year ago, and after declining San Diego's qualifying offer to return for one season at $20.325 million, you better believe Josh Hader will be looking for at least $102.1 million to become the richest relief pitcher in the big leagues.
And he's going to get it—he might sniff five years, $110 million—as Hader is better than Díaz and almost indisputably the best closer in the game today.
Even including the two-month long rough patch in the summer of 2022 during which Hader allowed a staggering 25 earned runs in 13.0 innings, he has career marks of 2.50 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 15.0 K/9 in 388.2 innings pitched.
Among the more than 3,000 pitchers in MLB history to log at least 350 innings on the mound, Hader has the highest K/9 and is one of just five pitchers at or above 13.0 K/9. He also has the second-lowest WHIP in that club, trailing only Koji Uehara's mark of 0.89.
We shall see in five years how his career numbers compare to those of Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman, both of whom were at least as dominant through their age-30 seasons, if not more so. (Hader turns 30 in April.) But whether he ends his career in the mix with Mariano Rivera for best closer of all-time or merely an indisputable inclusion in a top-25 ranking of closers, the moral of the story is he's really good.
Hader (perhaps deservedly) gets a bad rap for refusing to pitch multiple innings for a save, but few have ever been better at getting the final three outs of a game.
Landing Spots Nos. 10-6: Tigers, Red Sox, Braves, Diamondbacks and Orioles
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10. Detroit Tigers
Spending big on a closer is much more of a "make us a more legitimate World Series contender" move than a "make us remotely a playoff contender for the first time in seven years" move. Basically, the Tigers have other fish to fry before swinging big for Hader. However, it sure would be nice for Detroit to have a reliable closer for what one could argue would be the first time in franchise history.
9. Boston Red Sox
They already have Kenley Jansen signed for $16 million next season, plus Chris Martin at $7.5 million. If they added Hader, they'd be spending more on three relievers than Oakland might pay for its entire 2024 roster. But Jansen was shaky (even more than usual in recent years) last season and only has one year left on his deal. Might be a wise long-term move for the Red Sox, but they should instead be looking to invest that money in a potential ace.
8. Atlanta Braves
We've seen Atlanta mentioned somewhat often as a potential No. 3 suitor for Hader behind Texas and Philadelphia. But, really? The Braves have never signed a free agent to a contract worth more than $75.25 million (B.J. Upton a decade ago), but this is where they're going to plant their first nine-figure flag? When they already have Raisel Iglesias as one of their highest-paid players? And when starting pitching is very clearly the bigger concern? You sure 'bout that?
7. Arizona Diamondbacks
If the Diamondbacks are going to spend big this offseason—which is a big "if"—they are more likely to go all-in for a starting pitcher than a relief pitcher. However, there is no question that they could use some bullpen help. Paul Sewald was an OK midseason acquisition, converting 13 of 14 regular-season save chances. But just about every outing was an adventure, culminating in his allowing six earned runs in the World Series.
6. Baltimore Orioles
As with Arizona, Baltimore isn't particularly likely to spend a ton of money and is far more likely to invest in starters if it does. That said, the O's need a closer while Félix Bautista recovers from Tommy John surgery. And, goodness, how much fun would it be from 2025-27 to have those two working in tandem? Plus Yennier Cano bridging the gap from starter to double-barreled closer? I'd be willing to watch that experiment in action.
5. Chicago Cubs
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To be frank with you, I have no clue what the Cubs are planning on doing this offseason.
At first base alone, there has been talk of DH Christopher Morel playing there, talk of trading Morel for Pete Alonso and talk of signing Rhys Hoskins as a free agent. And all three of those reports came out within the span of a week.
We assume they'll do something to address the massive void at first base. It's a safe assumption they'll be looking to add one of the top 10 starting pitchers available, too. They're also still hoping to land Shohei Ohtani.
So, signing Josh Hader?
Sure. Why not?
Adbert Alzolay emerged as a solid closer for about two months last summer, but the Cubs are probably in the bottom third of the league in terms of how committed they are to their closer for 2024 and beyond. (Not because they were overflowing with quality options for the job this past season, just to be clear.)
And, heck, it might be worth $100 million to the Cubs just to not have to face Hader again.
In 34 career appearances against them, he has a 1.93 ERA, a 0.81 WHIP and a 15.0 K/9. Narrow it down to just his appearances at Wrigley Field, and we're talking a just plain absurd career line of 20.0 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 7 BB, 36 K.
4. Los Angeles Dodgers
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Do the Dodgers need a closer?
Not in the slightest.
Evan Phillips hasn't become a household name like Josh Hader or Craig Kimbrel, but he has been damn good over the past two seasons, giving the Dodgers 124.1 innings with a 1.59 ERA and a 0.796 WHIP. Among the 335 pitchers to log at least 100 innings since the beginning of 2022, he leads the majors in both of those categories.
If Phillips gets injured or is just unavailable for a night, well then the Dodgers turn to Brusdar Graterol, who had a 1.20 ERA in 67.1 innings pitched in 2023.
And they have both Phillips and Graterol under team control for another three years.
But can we definitively say the Dodgers wouldn't sign Hader?
Not in the slightest.
Even with estimated arbitration salaries factored in, the Dodgers currently have a $142 million payroll for next season. And we all know they have no problem going a bit (or quite a bit) above the $237 million luxury tax threshold, meaning they could have more than $100 million to spend.
In other words, they could get Shohei Ohtani for $50 million per year, add Blake Snell for let's call it $27 million per year and still have room to throw more than $20 million per year at Hader.
It's really just a question of whether they'd rather have Hader to put the finishing touches on a downright elite bullpen or try to land one of the other top starting pitchers available in addition to Snell.
Considering their current starting rotation is Bobby Miller, Walker Buehler coming off his second Tommy John surgery and a bunch of inexperienced question marks, our assumption is that they'll pass on Hader to go all-in on Ohtani and multiple starting pitchers. But signing Hader is at least on the table.
3. Philadelphia Phillies
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Doesn't it feel like the Phillies have been in a permanent state of trying to find a reliable closer ever since Mitch Williams gave up that home run to Joe Carter three decades ago?
Jonathan Papelbon had a really good run for three-and-a-half years, albeit coming right as they passed their late 2000s peak and began a decade-long postseason drought. And Brad Lidge gave them one lights out season (2008) en route to a World Series title.
But, at least lately, they just keep throwing eight-figure salaries at guys like Craig Kimbrel, Corey Knebel and David Robertson and can't seem to find anything that sticks.
Perhaps Hader could be their long-awaited savior?
Money is the big question, though.
Prior to re-signing Aaron Nola to a reported seven-year, $172 million deal over the weekend, the Phillies already had an estimated projected tax payroll of just under $225 million, per Spotrac. At this point, they are well above the $237 million luxury-tax threshold for next season.
Adding Hader to that mix would be a substantial payroll escalation for a team that is already expected to owe about a $6 million luxury tax for 2023. (Meaning the tax rate would be higher if exceeded again in 2024.)
In theory, though, there's nothing stopping them from embracing a nearly $300 million payroll.
It's their last year before Zack Wheeler hits free agency. They've got two years left of Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto and Ranger Suárez. I don't want to say it's "2024 or Bust," but the peak championship window is definitely closer to shut now than it was 24 months ago.
Signing Hader significantly improves their 2024 odds and perhaps keeps that window ajar a bit longer.
2. New York Yankees
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It has been all Rangers and Phillies in the Josh Hader rumor mill, but y'all sure are forgetting about a permanently deep-pocketed franchise that hasn't been especially committed to its closer over the past two years.
By "normal team" standards, Clay Holmes has been fine for the Yankees. Since the beginning of 2022, he has converted 44-of-52 saves (plus 12 holds) with a 2.70 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP and a 9.7 K/9. If nothing else, he keeps the ball in the yard, allowing just four home runs in 126.2 innings of work.
But do you seriously think the Yankees—after having two of the best closers ever in Mariano Rivera and Aroldis Chapman—are content with a closer who has put up numbers virtually indistinguishable from what Hunter Harvey has given the Washington Nationals over the past two seasons?
Considering Holmes has been on their active roster for all but two weeks over the past two seasons and hasn't even gotten half of their 91 saves, that question kind of answers itself.
He's a good reliever. Might even be an elite eighth-inning guy. But they also only have him under team control for one more year anyway, so they might as well go get their new closer now while a great one is available.
As far as finding the money to get Hader is concerned, that's no problem for the Yankees. It's really just a question of whether he's higher on their priority list than several of the other potential $100-plus million free agents in this year's cycle.
But if they want him, they can find a way to afford him. And keeping Hader from landing in Texas and making the reigning champs even better might be the added motivation New York needs to make this happen.
1. Texas Rangers
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After saving just four games during the regular season and 12 total dating back to the beginning of 2020, José Leclerc was a surprising star of Texas' World Series run.
But, like, he wasn't even that good in October.
Leclerc had a 3.29 ERA and a 5.38 FIP in the postseason, allowing three home runs in just 13.2 innings of work. He blew the save in Game 5 of the ALCS, which could have buried the Rangers were it not for the 20 runs they scored on the road in Games 6 and 7. And the simple fact that he was even forced into such a high-leverage role after primarily working in set-up or mop-up spots during the regular season says a lot about the overall state of Texas' bullpen.
Without question, the Rangers have the bats to win another World Series.
Even if they fail to re-sign Jordan Montgomery or otherwise land another quality starter, they've got Max Scherzer, Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney and possibly by the end of the year Jacob deGrom. Hard to argue with that, either.
But they simply must do something to upgrade the bullpen, and could instantly turn their biggest weakness into a legitimate strength by signing Hader.
Even with Hader, they would still need to add a couple of middle relievers. Josh Sborz was dynamite in the postseason, but he entered October with a career ERA of 5.08. Yet, as things currently stand, he's probably Texas' first man up for save chances on nights where Leclerc is unavailable.
Worry about those less critical arms later, though, and do whatever it takes to get the best closer in baseball.
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