NFL Picks Week 11 Best Early Player Props to Bet Before Odds Shift
The NFL playoff race is heating up, and Week 11 starts with a doozy of a game. The 7-3 Baltimore Ravens will host the 5-4 Cincinnati Bengals in a very pivotal AFC North showdown.
While the Cleveland Browns recently lost quarterback Deshaun Watson for the season, every team in the division is above .500 and has a realistic shot at the postseason. The Ravens won the first meeting against Cincinnati, but the rematch could go a long way toward settling the AFC North.
The week will end with a Monday night Super Bowl rematch between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles, and there are plenty of great contests in between. Here, though, we're going to focus on some individual players and some props we like heading into Thursday night.
Find all the props for this week's games at DraftKings.
Tyler Boyd over 44.5 Receiving Yards
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Bengals wideout Tyler Boyd is -115 (bet $115 to win $100) to finish with more than 44.5 receiving yards, and there are a couple of reasons why we like the over—specifically, two injuries.
The Ravens lost cornerback Marlon Humphrey to a calf injury in Week 10, while the Bengals lost receiver Tee Higgins to a hamstring injury during practice prior to Week 10. On a short week, both players could be unavailable.
For Baltimore, this may mean putting extra attention on Joe Burrow's No. 1 target, Ja'Marr Chase. For the Bengals, this means that Boyd will serve as the No. 2 instead of Higgins.
This is the role Boyd filled against the Houston Texans on Sunday, and he finished with eight receptions for 117 yards. Boyd should again get plenty of one-on-one coverage opportunities, and it would be a surprise if he doesn't top 50 receiving yards for the third game in a row.
Jayden Reed over 35.5 Receiving Yards
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Coming into the 2023 season, second-year receiver Christian Watson was expected to be the Green Bay Packers' No. 1 receiver and Jordan Love's top target. However, Love and Watson have struggled to get on the same page this season.
According to Pro Football Reference, Watson has provided a passer rating of only 37.8 when targeted this year, and five of his targets have resulted in interceptions.
Over the past few weeks, rookie Jayden Reed seems to be emerging as a wideout Love trusts. He's topped 80 receiving yards in two of the past three games and finished Week 10 with five catches, 84 yards and a touchdown.
Reed is -115 to reach 36 receiving yards against the Los Angeles Chargers, and he should.
At 3-6, the Packers aren't completely out of the playoff race, and they'll need to lean on Love if they hope to get to 4-6. While the Chargers have been merely average at stopping the run (4.1 yards per carry allowed), they've been terrible against the pass.
No team has allowed more passing yards per game, and Los Angeles ranks 30th in net yards per pass attempt.
Chigoziem Okonkwo over 27.5 Receiving Yards
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-While Tennessee Titans tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo hasn't had a high yardage output this season, he's been a regular part of the passing game plan. That hasn't changed since Will Levis took over as the starting quarterback three games ago.
Okonkwo has been targeted 15 times in three games with Levis and has caught at least three passes in every one of those contests.
This week, Okonkwo is -115 to surpass 27.5 receiving yards, which is right around where he's been landing the past three weeks. Since Levis took over, Okonkwo has had outputs of 23, 28 and 27 yards.
The over/under is right on the line, but we're leaning toward the over because of the matchup. Like the Chargers, Jacksonville has underwhelmed in pass defense. They rank 30th in passing yards allowed and 20th in net yards per pass attempt allowed.
The Jags have allowed an opposing tight end to reach 50 receiving yards in three of their past four games.
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Trevor Lawrence Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
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The Titans haven't been a lot better than the Jaguars at defending the pass—at least, between the 20s.
Tennessee ranks 17th in passing yards allowed and 27th in net yards per pass attempt allowed. However, the Titans do tend to tighten things up in the red zone and have surrendered just 10 passing touchdowns in nine games.
Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars, meanwhile, have mirrored things. The Jags rank a solid 16th in net yards per pass attempt, but Lawrence has averaged just one passing touchdown per game.
Of his nine outings this season, Lawrence has thrown multiple touchdown passes only twice, and only once since he did it in Week 1. However, it's worth noting that both of Lawrence's multi-touchdown games came against the Indianapolis Colts, a divisional opponent—like Tennessee—with which he is familiar.
As the Jaguars look to rebound from a disappointing blowout loss to the San Francisco 49ers, expect Lawrence to buck the recent trends and put a couple of passing scores on the board. He is +100 to do so.
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