Stock Up, Stock Down for Elias Pettersson, NHL's Most Prominent Contract-Year Players
The contract year is always a big one for players because it's their chance to send a message to their current—or future—team that they are worthy of a big-money deal.
The 2023-24 season features several big-name players around the NHL in the final year of their deals (both as restricted free agents and unrestricted free agents) who are sending their own messages.
With the season more than a month old, let's take a look at some of the more prominent names and whether their stock is up or down as potential free agents.
Elias Pettersson, Vancouver Canucks (RFA)
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Stock Status: Up
Elias Pettersson's stock status is not only up, it's also skyrocketing as he starts to put together another dominant year offensively.
This is the fourth straight season his production has improved on a per-game basis, and with 25 points in 15 games, he is on a 136-point pace over 82 games. Even if he isn't able to maintain that, he still seems set for a second straight 100-point effort.
The Swede, 25, has been one of the driving forces behind the Canucks' surprising fast start, and he's also the most prominent player on the roster and a cornerstone building block.
General manager Patrik Allvin has said he wants to get a deal done with Pettersson sooner rather than later. But even if a new contract is not signed in the coming weeks, he will remain a restricted free agent after this season, meaning his chances of leaving are somewhere between slim and none.
Pettersson is in the final year of a three-year, $22 million contract that carries a salary-cap hit of $7.3 million per season.
Given his offensive output over the past two years, his age, importance to the franchise and the fact the salary cap is set to increase in the coming years, it's not a stretch to imagine his new deal easily topping the $10 million-per-year range.
William Nylander, Toronto Maple Leafs (UFA)
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Stock Status: Up
William Nylander has been by far the best value among Toronto's core players thanks to his top-line production and relatively affordable $6.9 million salary-cap number over the past few years.
However, his status as a "value" is about to change...rapidly.
Whether that happens in Toronto or with another team remains to be seen, but no matter where the 27-year-old ends up, he has earned a significant raise on his next contract.
After scoring 74 total goals and 157 points over the previous two years, Nylander is off to an even better start this season with 10 goals and 22 points through his first 15 games going into play Tuesday night, while also registering a league-leading 70 shots on goal.
Along with his production, he is also an elite possession-driver and has developed into one of the top wingers in the league.
It's not a question of whether he will get a raise this offseason, it's how big of a raise he is going to get.
If Nylander goes to the open market, there is almost no doubt that a bidding war could easily push him into the $10-11 million range given his production. Toronto might be able to fit that sort of contract in the long term, especially with some significant money coming off the books this offseason and John Tavares' $11 million coming off following the 2024-25 season.
Tavares' money coming off, combined with a potential cap increase, would make it relatively easy to fit Nylander into the Leafs' long-term plans as long as they can make the money work next season.
Steven Stamkos, Tampa Bay Lightning (UFA)
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Stock Status: Slightly Down
This is going to be a fascinating situation to watch unfold.
Typically, the Tampa Bay Lightning re-sign players they want to keep long before this point in the season. They usually work fast to extend pending free agents and have the deal done within the first week or two of players being eligible to sign it.
They have not taken that approach with Steven Stamkos, one of the best goal-scorers of his era and one of the most significant and prominent players in the history of the franchise.
Even more curious was general manager Julien BriseBois telling reporters how he needs to see how some young players on the team perform before committing big money to Stamkos.
None of it is consistent with how Tampa Bay works to retain players, and it creates some questions as to whether the 33-year-old's time with the Lightning is coming to an end.
If they felt strongly about committing to him, they would have done so by now. Their history suggests no new contract at this point means he might be headed to free agency.
While Stamkos is still an outstanding player and extremely productive, it's worth asking what his value looks like on the open market.
There will be a market, no question, and he will still be a top-line player for at least the next few years. But he is also going to be 34 years old in February and is not going to keep scoring 40 goals forever, and every potential suitor knows that.
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Jake Guentzel, Pittsburgh Penguins (UFA)
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Stock Status: Steady
In a vacuum, Jake Guentzel would be near the top of every potential free-agency wish list given his production.
When healthy, he has been one of the best goal-scorers in the league since he made his debut, and he has averaged a 40-goal pace per 82 games between the 2018-19 and 2022-23 seasons.
The only thing that has kept Guentzel from consistently hitting the 40-goal mark (he has done it twice) is playing enough games to get there.
The knock on him, though, is going to be that he has tallied all of those numbers while playing alongside one of the NHL's all-time greats: Sidney Crosby.
While that is true, it's unfair to write Guentzel off as simply a product of Crosby. A lot of talented players have played extended time on Crosby's wing and never come close to matching Guentzel's production. There is a lot to be said for being able to finish, and they tend to feed off of each other perfectly.
Having said that, Guentzel is going to be 30 years old when his new contract begins and he probably does have his best fit in Pittsburgh.
A five- or six-year deal in the $8 million range would seem reasonable given his age and production, and it would allow Pittsburgh to keep taking another run with this current core over the next couple of years.
Sam Reinhart, Florida Panthers (UFA)
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Stock Status: Up
Sam Reinhart was always a good player in Buffalo, even if a little underwhelming as a No. 2 overall pick. But going to the Florida Panthers has been career-changing for him and allowed him to reach his full potential and perform as a top-line scorer.
After back-to-back 30-goal seasons, he is off to another fantastic start this year with 21 points in 14 games entering play on Tuesday.
What makes Reinhart such an interesting player is he has the flexibility to play in the middle or on the wing. He can play up and down the lineup and is just a really productive top-line scorer who is still only 28 years old.
He will be an in-demand player if he went to the open market.
While Reinhart has expressed a desire to stay in Florida, that is going to be difficult for a Panthers team that already has several big-money contracts in Aleksander Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk, Aaron Ekblad and Sergei Bobrovsky.
The front office will also need to deal with a defense corps that only has two players under contract (Ekblad and Gustav Forsling) for next season.
The Panthers have $28 million in available cap space this offseason but have only eight players under contract for next year.
Paying Reinhart what he can demand on the open market will be a significant challenge while also still building a competitive team.
Jeremy Swayman, Boston Bruins (RFA)
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Stock Status: Up
The goalie market is again going to be incredibly thin, especially after the Winnipeg Jets managed to get Connor Hellebuyck re-signed.
Jeremy Swayman is only a restricted free agent, but he is doing himself a ton of favors with the way he is playing this season.
Through his first seven starts, the 24-year-old has a league-best .944 save percentage and helps form what has been the best goalie duo in hockey. His and Linus Ullmark's form is one of the biggest reasons the Boston Bruins have been able to transition seamlessly to a post-Patrice Bergeron era and still remain on top of the NHL standings.
Long-term goalie projections are always a huge risk, and even the NHL's smartest teams and best scouts tend to get these things wrong from time to time. Committing to a long-term deal on a netminder can be playing with fire, so it remains to be seen on whether the Bruins will want to tie themselves into a super-lengthy deal with Swayman.
However, in 95 career regular-season starts, he has a .922 save percentage and has consistently played at an elite level.
The question is what happens when he is no longer in a platoon situation where he has to be "the guy" and is counted on to carry the full workload. He has not had to do that yet in Boston and has never played more than 41 games in a single season.
That uncertainty, combined with the volatility that comes with goalies, could put him in the bridge-contract market. Even so, that should be a pretty substantial raise for him as he continues to excel in the Boston crease.
Jonathan Marchessault, Vegas Golden Knights (UFA)
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Stock Status: Down
Jonathan Marchessault has been one of the great success stories in the modern NHL, going from an undersized, undrafted player to a star role in a Stanley Cup-winning team.
For nearly a decade, he has been a lock for at least 25 goals and 50 points with Florida and Vegas, and he helped turn the latter into one of the fastest-growing hockey cities in the league.
As good as he has been, though, it's important to remember he will be 33 when his next contract begins.
Signing good-not-great players in their mid-30s to long-term, big-money deals is a significant risk and might not be one that an always cap-strapped Vegas team is willing to take, especially when Marchessault is off to a slow start (by his standards) this season.
He has been playing on a fairly team friendly deal over the past six years in Vegas, counting just $5 million against the cap.
If the Golden Knights can get him signed to a similar price point on a three- or four-year deal, it might be something worth doing to keep a Stanley Cup-winning core together. But if his production does not pick back up to what we have seen in recent years, that decline and his age could send him elsewhere.
You can afford to sign a player like Sidney Crosby or Alex Ovechkin to a long-term deal in their mid-late 30s because their decline is going to look a lot different than that of second-tier players, simply because they are starting from a higher point.
When a player such as Marchessault starts to decline, though, it can make a reasonable contract look bad very quickly.
Elias Lindholm, Calgary Flames (UFA)
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Stock Status: Down
Everything has been going wrong for the Calgary Flames for two years now, and not even a new head coach and general manager has turned things around.
Starting goalie Jacob Markström looks like he might be finished as an elite starter, while Jonathan Huberdeau's contract is rapidly turning into an albatross.
And Elias Lindholm now looks like his career is starting to decline offensively at the worst possible time as he plays for a new contract.
The 28-year-old's production took a step backward last year, and he had just two goals and eight points through the Flames' first 14 games entering play on Tuesday.
Part of that drop in production has been due to a stunning dip in shooting percentage. He still has some strong underlying numbers and is still generating shots on goal at a decent rate. However, with the way his current production is trending, he might be a player who is just waiting to get overpaid on the free-agent market.
Given the direction the Flames are going, it seems unlikely Lindholm re-signs there. He might end up as a trade-deadline rental for a contender, which might be his best chance to start rebooting his value for free agency.
Honorable Mentions
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Vladimir Tarasenko, Ottawa Senators (Stock down)
Tarasenko signed a one-year deal with Ottawa late in the offseason to provide some veteran scoring depth for the team.
The 31-year-old has been solid, but he is showing some serious signs of decline, especially when it comes to his shot generation.
His days as a top-line producer might be finished, and the Russian might be entering the stage of his career where he bounces from team to team on one-year deals.
Tyler Toffoli, New Jersey Devils (Stock up)
Toffoli and the Devils seemed like a perfect fit this offseason, and the early returns have proved they are.
Not only is the 31-year-old averaging a point-per-game through the first month of the season, but he is also averaging over 3.6 shots on goal per game and posting dominant possession numbers.
Toffoli might be in his 30s, but he is still an outstanding two-way player.
Teuvo Teräväinen, Carolina Hurricanes (Stock steady)
Teräväinen has been an extremely underrated player for much of his career. He drives possession, is a great playmaker and has simply been a rock-solid top-six winger.
However, his 2023-24 season has been inconsistent. The assist numbers have evaporated so far, but his goal-scoring has taken a big early jump thanks to a 25 percent shooting percentage. The drop in assists seems fluky, especially given how strong his possession numbers still are.
Overall, things seem likely to balance out for the 29-year-old as his own personal shooting percentage drops and his teammates start to finish more plays to drive his assists back up. He is still a good second-line type player, and he should continue to be for a few more years.
Moritz Seider, Detroit Red Wings (Stock down)
Seider is a restricted free agent after this season, and while there is a lot to like about him long-term, his development has slowed down a little after his Calder Trophy-winning season.
That doesn't mean the 22-year-old won't be a franchise player or a No. 1 defenseman in Detroit, though. He still should be. And it doesn't mean he's not a good player right now. Because he is.
It just means his next contract might be more of a prove-it, bridge-type deal than a long-term megadeal.
Brett Pesce, Carolina Hurricanes (Stock down)
In what is looking to be an extremely thin crop of free-agent defensemen, Pesce is probably at the top of the list. But his contract year is not off to a great start.
The 29-year-old has been limited to seven games and has not had a chance to stand out yet.
Offense has never been a huge part of his game, but as a standout defensive player, he should still have a ton of interest on the open market.
Just because his stock is down right now, though, doesn't mean it will stay there all year. As he gets more games and shows he can still be an effective top-pairing player, his value should rise throughout the year.
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