5 Bad NBA Teams That Still Have a Realistic Playoff Shot
Everybody loves a good comeback story, and five teams currently struggling in the standings have great chances to write theirs before the 2023-24 season concludes.
For our purposes, "bad" teams are the ones that sit outside the top six in their conference. Some of the clubs we'll feature have been much worse than that, but a bright-line cutoff keeps things simple.
Whether because of health, bad luck, strange statistical anomalies or a combination of all three, these teams are performing well below expectations. It's inevitable that one or two will fail to pull out of their current nosedives, but the point here is to highlight teams with a chance to avoid crashing and burning.
Let's get optimistic about the playoff fates of five teams that stumbled out of the gates.
Cleveland Cavaliers
1 of 5
We might as well start with an easy one, as the Cleveland Cavaliers have no chance of finishing the year in the standings spot they occupy now. Incredibly, these guys would barely make the Play-In round if the season ended today.
Injuries are partly at fault, as each of Darius Garland, Jarrett Allen, Donovan Mitchell, Caris LeVert and Isaac Okoro has missed time in the early going. It also hasn't helped that Garland's three-point shot, which fell at a 41.0 percent clip a year ago, is all the way down to 28.6 percent.
The biggest hint that redemption is ahead has to do with the marksmanship of Cleveland's opponents. Teams are drilling 40.5 percent of their long-range attempts (including 41.3 percent from above the break) so far, a laughably unsustainable rate. The league average last year was 36.1 percent, so regression is imminent.
Perhaps more importantly, the Cavs are allowing the right kinds of shots. They're among the top 10 in suppressing opponent three-point volume and effectively limit shots at close range. The combined length of Allen and Evan Mobley also makes it nearly impossible to finish inside, and Cleveland is holding opposing shooters to the third-lowest field-goal percentage at the rim.
A 51-game winner in 2022-23, Cleveland is off to a 5-6 start (with a minus-1.8 net rating) that won't linger. Give these guys some time to settle in, wait for opponents to cool off and bank on another 50-plus victories. If the Cavs aren't at top-six team in the East by December, it'll be a shock.
Memphis Grizzlies
2 of 5
With roughly four percent of the confidence we expressed in Cleveland hitting its stride after a stumbling start, we present the 2-9 Memphis Grizzlies.
There's no denying how ugly Memphis' first few weeks have been. Offensively, the Grizz can't get anything going from the highest-value spots on the floor. So the case for Memphis turning things around has to start with it shooting better than 31.9 percent on corner threes (28th) and 60.4 percent at the rim (25th).
Once Ja Morant returns from his 25-game suspension, the team's astronomical turnover rate should also decline.
Memphis ended last season on a troubling note, and there's no replacing the offensive rebounding or screen-setting of Steven Adams, who's out for the season. But getting Morant back should reorganize the roster in key ways, easing the playmaking burdens of Marcus Smart and Desmond Bane while also reducing the quality of defender each of those players has to face every night.
As long as we can all agree that Jaren Jackson Jr. will find his DPOY form sooner or later, there's also good reason to trust Memphis will climb back into its customary place among the top five in defensive efficiency.
Maybe it's hard to believe all the factors that have gone against the Grizzlies will correct themselves. But the alternative, in which the Grizzlies continue to lose over 80.0 percent of their games and go from being a regular member of the 50-win club to a lottery team, seems even less likely.
LA Clippers
3 of 5
Losers of six straight and still searching (hopelessly?) for ways to integrate an out-of-shape James Harden into the offense, the LA Clippers might be an even less popular pick to sort things out than the Grizzlies. At least help, in the form of Morant, will eventually arrive in Memphis.
The Clips have to make things work with the pieces on hand (plus incoming signee Daniel Theis), and the results so far don't inspire confidence that's possible.
This is a bet on talent alone, exactly like the one the Clippers made when they added Harden. And just as the Clippers did when they made that blockbuster trade, this bet also ignores factors like chemistry, health risks and history. It doesn't acknowledge the fact that LA's best lineups have so far been the Harden-less ones, and it disregards the possibility that even a prime-conditioned Harden makes no sense on this roster.
Kawhi Leonard and Paul George's shared minutes are producing a plus-10.5 net rating so far. If Harden can just avoid screwing that up (which he hasn't so far), the Clippers are eventually going to start adding some wins to the ledger.
If it feels like we're just taking it on faith that LA can turn its 3-7 start around, know that the numbers offer some support . According to ESPN's BPI, the Clips still have an 84.9 percent chance of making the playoffs. That seems wildly optimistic, but it helps make the case that you can't bury a team after 10 games—no matter how bleak things look.
Phoenix Suns
4 of 5
If we included the sub-.500 Cleveland Cavaliers, the Phoenix Suns have to be fair game. Although the reasons are different, it's just as easy to be optimistic about Kevin Durant and Co. surging into the West's top six as it is for the Cavs in the East.
Phoenix has had even more significant injury issues than Cleveland, with Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal yet to take the floor together in a regular-season game. The case for the Suns is as simple as their approach to roster construction, which is to say they have three superstar scorers and will figure out the rest.
It's riskier than you might think to trust these Suns. Durant has been something of an iron man to date, but he's the one toting the worst track record from a health perspective. If Phoenix leaned a little too hard on him with Booker and Beal missing so much of the season's first three weeks, it's possible KD will wear down sooner than usual.
Remember, he's averaged just 46 games per year since losing all of 2019-20 to a torn Achilles. Precedent suggests Durant will be lucky to appear in another 40 games this season.
As long as he comes close to that total and the Beal-Booker tandem's injury issues are in the rear-view mirror, Phoenix is going to wind up above the Play-In tier of the West.
New York Knicks
5 of 5
The New York Knicks may not fit the conventional definition of "bad", but they've got the most upside of any non-Cavs team currently sitting outside the East's top six*. When the alternative options for redemption are the Chicago Bulls, Charlotte Hornets, Washington Wizards and Detroit Pistons, well...the choice kind of makes itself.
It feels like Julius Randle didn't make a shot until this week, and it's not just the two-time All-NBA forward who couldn't put the ball in the basket. As a team, New York is on pace to post the franchise's worst field-goal percentage on shots at the rim in Cleaning the Glass' database, which goes back to 2003-04.
As much as anything else, that stat offers hope. The Knicks won half of their first 10 games despite historic misfire rates on what should be the easiest looks to convert. It'll be almost impossible for Randle to keep clanking shots like this, and Jalen Brunson won't continue shooting under 40.0 percent on his pet short mid-rangers. Sooner or later, those bunnies at the bucket will drop.
When that happens, the Knicks should certainly start performing at better than a break-even pace. As long as they don't lose too much ground in the meantime, that'll probably be enough to hold a position in the top six for good.
*New York is currently tied in the standings with the Brooklyn Nets, Atlanta Hawks and Orlando Magic. The East's sixth, seventh, eighth and ninth seeds are all 6-5 entering play on Nov. 16.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Accurate entering games played Thursday, Nov. 16. Salary info via Spotrac.
Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@gt_hughes), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report's Dan Favale.
